Kirk, Corked
StatWatch gets you ready for Week 2 with Titans blown blocks, Bengals missed tackles and the Incredible Disappearing Kirk Cousins Play-Action Package.
Follow the logic of the 2024 Atlanta Falcons, if you dare to stare into such an abyss.
They signed now-36-year-old Kirk Cousins for a reported $180 million five months after an Achilles tear, because it was time for them to Win Now. They drafted Michael Penix in the first round a few weeks later instead of a cornerback/edge/receiver, because something something something 2026 something.
Cousins worked his way back from injury according to a reasonable timetable, which meant his mobility was limited throughout the offseason. Penix shined in the preseason opener. Fearing a controversy – something they really should have thought of in April – the Falcons drydocked Penix for the rest of the preseason in favor of Tyler Heinicke, the kind of affordable innings eater a team keeps behind its veteran starter if it really wants to slow-cook the rookie.
September arrives, the regular season approaches, and it’s obvious that Cousins’ mobility is still an issue. So what did the Falcons do?
Start Penix, hope the element of surprise (OMG a lefty!) crosses up the Steelers, and chalk it up as a learning experience if he fails;
Start Heinicke to avoid a controversy and hope the veterans you just acquired on defense can manufacture a win against an opponent with an even drippier quarterback plan; or
Cut Heinicke, bury Penix beneath blankets and send Cousins onto the field with his cleats embedded in concrete.
We all know the answer turned out to be 3) last week. You may also know by now that Cousins was so immoble that the Falcons did not dare execute play-action passes, even though their game plan was built around Bijan Robinson, lest Cousins risk any unnecessary lower-body movements.
Here are the teams that used play-action passing the least in Week 1, per Sports Info Solutions:
Falcons: 0-of-1 on one dropback for zero yards.
Chargers: 2-of-2 on two dropbacks for 38 yards.
Bills: 2-of-2 on two dropbacks for 33 yards.
The Chiefs, Buccaneers and Seahawks all attempted four play-action passes, low figures caused by a low play total, lots of second-half rushing and spending half a game at their own two-yard line, respectively.
Justin Herbert is coming off a foot injury and may also have some short-term mobility issues, though he looked fine on his lone scramble. Greg Roman’s gameplans are what they are.
The Bills were a middle-of-the-pack play-action team in 2023 (150 attempts). Their low play-action total is probably just a low-sample-size artifact. It’s the Falcons, who led for much of their game but had trouble moving the football, who abandoned a fundamental offensive tactic because they were afraid Cousins would collapse like an old barn in the wind.
The Falcons also executed zero seven-step drops and zero rollouts in Week 1. The Chargers only used one seven-step drop according to the SIS database, so perhaps Herbert is indeed a tad gimpy. Most teams used some sort of deep or rolling dropback about five times in Week 1.
Cousins completed 70.6% of his play-action passes in 2023 (60-of-85), averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. His play-action numbers in previous years were also solid. He has always been a fine play-action and rollout passer, as befits his profile as a non-scintillating professionalism guy. If he cannot fake a handoff and take a seven-step drop because his footwork is clunky, he should not be out there.
The Falcons are 6.5-point midweek road dogs against the Eagles next Monday night. It’s a steep Week 2 line, and I have a strict rule about wagering on Falcons games. But based on what I saw on Friday and Sunday, the Eagles should roll. Or, in the fine Falcons tradition, the Eagles should control the game but only win by six because of a Cousins touchdown at the final gun.