TankWatch: New England Patriots

Bill Belichick was too hard. Jerod Mayo thinks the team is now too soft. Is Drake Maye just right?

Jerod Mayo thinks his Patriots are a soft team right now. 

“I felt like we just went out there and played soft,” Mayo said, per ESPN’s Mike Reiss, after Saturday’s loss to the scuffling Jaguars dropped the Patriots to 1-6. “We’re playing soft at the moment. When I say playing soft, it means stopping the run, being able to run the ball, and being able to cover kicks, which we weren’t able to do.”

Gosh, toilet paper commercials don’t use the word “soft” so many times in 30 seconds!  

Not to disagree with Mayo, but the Patriots aren’t “soft.” They just stink. They had one of the weakest rosters in the NFL entering training camp, then suffered injury plagues to the offensive line and on defense. The guys on the field are trying their absolute darndest. But many of them simply aren’t NFL-caliber football players.

Mayo may have been sparing his team’s feelings by calling the players “soft” instead of “a bunch of guys the 2011 Patriots would have cut during minicamp.” But it’s also unclear what he hopes to accomplish by questioning his team’s toughness. It’s possible that Mayo actually believes that his locker room full of draft-day blunders and practice-squad lifers simply needs the proper combination of guidance, goading and shaming. 

Mayo, after all, is both a product and proponent of The Patriots Way, an offshoot of objectivism which replaced Ayn Rand with Tom Brady. The Patriots Way was grindset hogwash, a reassuring little lie that everyone from Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick on down told one another so they would not feel like mere Brady coattail-commuters. (Belichick, despite revisionist history, was an outstanding coach, but without Brady he’d be remembered as a less-charming Tom Coughlin.) But the Patriots may still believe they possess some mystical pigskin gnosis. Hence their insular approach to rebuilding: Mayo, a front office still populated by Belichick cronies, and a lack of urgency that feels like a throwback to the pre-salary cap era.

The Patriots Story So Far

Having fired Bill Belichick but preserved his calcified infrastructure as if it were the charred buttresses of Notre Dame Cathedral, the Patriots drafted Drake Maye and decided that was all the change they could handle for one year. They extended the contracts of some of the core veterans from a team that won 12 games in the previous two seasons (Christian Barmore, Jabrill Peppers, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne) and brought back former backup Jacoby Brissett to serve as Maye’s mentor/stunt double. The plan was to win some low-scoring games with running and defense while Maye ripened on the bench for as long as possible. Or something like that.

Barmore underwent treatment for blood clots in July and was placed on the non-football injury list; his career is now in jeopardy. Matthew Judon, the Patriots’ top edge rusher, realized he was passed over for an extension and stuck on a team going nowhere, so he staged a short training camp sit-in. Mayo and his fellow Belichick heirs solved this first challenge to their sovereignty by shipping Judon to the Falcons. The Patriots were without two of their best defenders before they even played a preseason game. The situation soon became just as bad on offense, with multiple linemen suffering August injuries.

Mayo named Brissett as his starter, and the Patriots shocked the Bengals (who typically need a few weeks to get going) in the season opener. But the Patriots have gotten less competitive nearly every week since, as further injuries have forced them to plunge ever deeper into a talent pool which was as shallow as a rain puddle in the first place.

Mayo kept Brissett on the field to absorb punishment as long as he could, but the Patriots offense flatlined in a depressing loss to the Snoop Huntley-helmed Dolphins in Week 5. Most of Maye’s production has come when the Texans and Jaguars held commanding leads, but Maye at least provides some production. Brissett was just out there getting heroically tortured like Braveheart. 

Leadership Structure

Robert Kraft is well-respected in NFL circles as a steward of the game, and he is beloved in New England as the man who saved the Patriots organization from oblivion in the 1990s and mediated the Brady/Belichick relationship. 

Kraft is also reviled in some parts of the Internet for having solicited a $59 happy ending at a Palm Beach massage parlor in 2018. Yes, said establishment was under investigation for sex trafficking, but there was zero evidence Kraft knew anything about such matters. Destigmatizing sex workers also means destigmatizing their septuagenarian widower clientele, right?

Anyway, charges against Kraft were dropped, and the trafficking investigation may have been a dubious-faith overreach of law-enforcement power in the first place. But it’s easy to hate NFL owners, and AFC East fans needed some reason to feel superior to the Patriots. 

Kraft, now 83, appears to have taken on a more active role in football operations since firing Belichick for being out of touch and set in his ways.

Eliot Wolf, the Vice President of Player Personnel, was either a sniveling functionary or a fully-empowered deputy general manager under Belichick. If he was a functionary, then there is no reason to believe that he’s qualified to rebuild the roster. If he held real power in his various organizational roles from 2020-23, then he’s largely responsible for the current state of the roster, and therefore a poor choice to rebuild it. But Kraft’s LinkedIn circle consists of current Patriots employees, Donald Trump and Meek Mill since he cut ties with Belichick and the ladies at Orchids of Asia, so Wolf earned a promotion by virtue of being less culpable for the team’s woes than Matt Patricia.

Wolf, the son of legendary Packers GM Ron Wolf, spent 14 years slowly climbing the ladder in Green Bay before striking out on his own. I’d like to think Wolf’s gestation was so long because he started very young and the Packers don’t believe in nepotism, but … sorry, I lapsed into a cynicism spiral and was unable to complete this thought. Wolf’s top front office lieutenant Matt Groh, son of former Bill Parcells lieutenant Al Groh, has been in the Patriots organization since 2011 … (cynicism spiral relapse).

Students of ancient history know that many legendary kings who ruled for decades ended up outliving most of their heirs. Their empires were therefore handed over by default to some callow 10th son of their 20th wife and quickly collapsed due to lack of inspired leadership. That brings us to Mayo, who only differs from Belichick Babies like Josh McDaniels, Bill O’Brien, Patricia, Joe Judge and the head-coaching version of Brian Flores in that: a) he’s less experienced now than most of them were when they left Foxboro; and b) he hasn’t revealed his true nature as a raving paranoiac yet.

Unlike the rest of the bitter fruit from Belichick’s cursed coaching tree, Mayo has not been able to spend his first months on the job ripping his predecessor or philosophizing about the need for a culture change. He also could not purge his roster and sign creaky former Patriots as replacements, because his roster consists entirely of creaky current Patriots. Robbed of the two favorite Belichick Baby pastimes, Mayo has been left with almost nothing to do except dither over his quarterback situation and publicly castigate his team. And now he has absolutely nothing left to do!

Quarterback Situation

Drake Maye was, by most accounts, the least NFL-ready of the top quarterback prospects in the 2024 draft. That may end up being more of a feature than a bug, because Maye was one of the only prospects whose dossier did not read like:

• 2018: Left high school as a nine-star recruit.

• 2019: Started six games but was benched twice.

• 2020: COVID chaos.

• 2021: Entered transfer portal after telling his coach to go suck a lemon.

• 2022: Received a Mercedes-Benz upon arriving at new program, which is totally cool now. Started six games but was benched twice. 

• 2023: Suddenly became awesome as a 23-year old facing teenagers. 

Maye is just 22 and spent three years at a single program. He was outstanding for North Carolina in 2022. In 2023, he was outstanding in 2022. Maye was the subject/victim of Josh Allen comparisons by draftniks, because every scrambling scattershot white kid will draw Allen comparisons for the next decade, even though most of them will be lucky to end up as Daniel Jones.

Maye has been like the Spartan baby exposed on a hillside since taking over for Brissett in Week 6. As such, Maye’s ability to scramble to safety and throw some meaningless late-game touchdowns has been rather impressive. But Maye needs to graduate from “making the final score look close” to “actually keeping the game competitive” before weekly beatings take their toll. Maye popped up on the Week 7 injury report after absorbing four sacks and eight hits against the Texans. He took just two sacks against the Jaguars, but that was because the Patriots barely had the ball in the second half.

It’s important to note that no one associated with the Patriots, from Kraft down to the fans, has the foggiest idea how quarterback development actually works. Brady fell into Kraft’s lap a quarter-century ago. Mayo was Brady’s teammate. Wolf spun around in his daddy’s chair during the Brett Farve/Aaron Rodgers transition. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt coached Rodgers in his prime. The Patriots wasted three years on Mac Jones because he completed some screen passes while their still-formidable-in-2021 defense orchestrated blowouts over patsies. When it came time to teach Jones big-boy quarterback stuff, Patricia, Judge and O’Brien took turns poking him and screaming “BE BRADY!!!”

Maye is going to need real support and nurturing this year and next. The Patriots can’t afford to look at his fourth-quarter stat padding and decide that he’s on the fast track. 

What’s Going Right

Not much:

• Maye, as mentioned, looks toolsy and determined in limited action so far.

• Cornerback Christian Gonzalez, last year’s first-round pick, returned from a 2023 shoulder injury and has handled tough assignments well. There is still talent scattered around the defense.

• Running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson have had their moments. Stevenson has fumbled four times and was briefly benched, but he was the star of the Patriots’ lone victory.

• Kicker Joey Slye and punter Bryce Baringer have been solid. Baringer leads the NFL with 19 punts inside the 20. 

What’s Going Wrong

Let’s try to be concise:

• The following players have taken snaps on the offensive line for the Patriots: David Andrews, Ben Brown, Demontrey Jacobs, Michael Jordan, Nick Leverett, Veredian Lowe, Chukwuma Okorafor, Mike Onwenu, Sidy Sow, Layden Robinson, Zach Thomas and Caedan Wallace. The only players on that list who could start for a playoff team are Onwenu and the 2019 version of Andrews. Former first-round vanity pick Cole Strange has been on IR since training camp and is also not good.

• The absence of Barmore, Ja’Whaun Bentley (IR), Jabrill Peppers (suspended) and others, plus the departure of Judon, have left the Patriots defense vulnerable right up the middle. 

• Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman have been gone for so long that the Patriots consider Hunter Henry and DeMario Douglas serious playmakers. Second-round wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk has been consigned mostly to four-yard passes, some of which he has dropped.

Building Blocks

The Patriots’ young nucleus charitably consists of Maye, Polk, Gonzalez and some “nice little player” types like Douglas, Onwenu, Kayshon Boutte, Kyle Duggar, Marcus Jones and Keion White. If Barmore can return it would provide a significant boost. 

The Patriots problem is not so much that they lack potential blue chips but that the bottom two-thirds of their roster consists of stale potato chips. 

Future Assets

Now for some great news: the Patriots have a league-high $132-million in paper cap space for 2025 and not a soul on the roster scheduled for and worthy of a long-term extension. They will almost certainly earn a top-5 draft pick next year and possess an extra third-round pick thanks to the Judon trade.

Rebuilding Plan

The Patriots have a quarterback prospect and cap space, which means they have the potential to turn things around quickly in 2025. The problem is that they move like molasses and have no idea how rebuilding works. But TankWatch is here with some no-nonsense advice:

Protect Maye. That might mean a season full of paint-by-numbers game plans. It might mean more Brissett if Maye is even slightly banged up. It definitely means physical, developmental and emotional protection. 

Maye cannot suffer a serious injury. He can’t develop bad habits while throwing to slowpokes behind an offensive line full of mall cops. He needs to be shielded from unrealistic expectations and the kind of harsh criticism that is likely to develop if the Patriots keep losing. The Patriots need a 100% healthy and reasonably confident Maye in 2025. Nothing else they do this year matters.

No Trade-Deadline Sell-Off. Honestly, who could the Patriots even move?

If anything, the Patriots should be buyers, at least on the penny-stock aftermarket. If some contender or fellow bottom feeder is looking to offload a failed receiver or offensive tackle prospect, the Patriots could trade a late-round pick for someone who could instantly start for them and help keep Maye upright.

Follow the Commanders Model. That’s right: the Commanders are role models right now! What strange times we live in. But the Commanders rebuilt their offense in one year with mid-tier free agents (Tyler Biadasz, Nick Allegretti, Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, others) and mid-round draft picks (Brandon Coleman, Luke McCaffrey). They didn’t even spend that much money. Many of the Commanders’ “solutions” are really stopgaps, but scaffolding can really help a young quarterback. And who would you rather watch every Sunday: the Commanders or the Patriots?

Stop Fetishizing the Past. Mayo doesn’t have to be replaced. Wolf doesn’t have to be replaced. Kraft doesn’t have to sell the team. But the Patriots have to do something fresh, new and different. Hire a hotshot offensive coordinator, perhaps, to replace the nondescript Van Pelt. Or another voice in the personnel department willing to do something bold, like an epic draft trade-down. (The Patriots, after all, might be the worst team to not need a quarterback in 2025.) At the very least, cutting loose lifers like Groh from the scouting department would help signal a more emphatic break from the past. 

Heck, even a uniform redesign might send a subconscious message that the Patriots plan to move forward as a competitive football franchise, not The Museum of Early 21st Century Football.

Bottom Line

I think the Patriots have forgotten what good football players look like.

Oh sure, they can identify Maye/Gonzalez types in the early rounds, give-or-take a Cole Strange or Tyquan Thornton. But Maye or Gonzalez could be drafted from a Dan Jeremiah segment on the NFL Network. The closest thing to a late-round hit the Patriots have had since 2021 is Stevenson, and some of their misses (kicker Chad Ryland springs to mind) have been inexcusable. 

The Patriots aren’t just pulling names out of a hat in the second-through-seventh rounds, of course. But they may have been basing their draft boards on decade-old benchmarks and outdated notions about how fast/strong/prepared incoming rookies need to be. They were doing things in 2020-24 that would have kept them one step ahead of the NFL in 2005-09 but now leave them two steps behind. That’s why they have fielded one of the slowest rosters in the NFL for several years: I honestly think they stopped updating their minimum draftable 40-times when Scott Pioli left the front office in 2008.

That’s why a thorough, emphatic break from the past is so important. The Patriots still appear obsessed with doing things their “way.” But their way would have stopped working over a decade ago if not for Brady. And there are no voices for change anywhere on the org chart.

The Patriots won’t improve by trying to be the 2010s Patriots. Instead, they must decide what the 2020s Patriots are supposed to be, other than a glorified trophy case. They need speed, not speeches. Ideas, not a silly ideology. Decision-makers like Mayo need the self awareness to realize that yelling “Do Your Job” won’t be enough. They must do their jobs as well. And like the Patriots players, it may turn out that some of them just aren’t really good enough.