Adventures In Boat Racing: NFL Walkthrough Week 4

A stunning Ravens blowout, statement wins by the Vikings and Buccaneers, vengeance denied for Aaron Rodgers, Eagles pessimism, Steelers skepticism and much more!

If there’s one thing the first three weeks of the season made abundantly clear, it’s that the Buffalo Bills were the best team in the NFL.

Josh Allen was the runaway MVP. His offensive playmakers represented an egalitarian ideal of selfless teamwork. The Bills offensive line was great. Their defensive front was better. The Bills overcame a stumble out of the gate to glide past the Cardinals, manhandled the Dolphins so thoroughly that it essentially ended their season and made chumps of the Jaguars in a Monday Night Football game that was over before most Monday nighters even start. The Chiefs may be the undefeated defending champions, but the Bills looked like the team to beat.

The Ravens? What a mess! Heartbreak against the Chiefs in the season opener. A late-game meltdown against the grungy Raiders. The Ravens hammered the Cowboys for three quarters but nearly collapsed in the fourth, and taking advantage of the Cowboys during one of their mood swings barely counts.

The Ravens offensive line entered Week 4 missing two starters. Their wide receiving corps consists of Zay Flowers and some guys who probably couldn’t crack the 49ers roster. Heck, Justin Tucker isn’t even all that reliable anymore.

So who saw Sunday night’s 35-10 Ravens rout of the Bills coming?

Pointspreaders knew something was brewing, which is why the Ravens were 2.5-point favorites, despite an injury report that should have erased their homefield advantage and then some.

Aaron Schatz also smelled a not-quite upset. DVOA analysis adores the Ravens. According to the analytics, the Ravens played very well in Week 1, lost a game they dominated in Week 2 because of penalties and a few high-leverage mistakes and would not even have been threatened by the Cowboys if not for some unlikely events like a recovered onside kick. The analytics like the Bills, too, but DVOA saw the same even matchup that the handicappers saw.

So the question remains: who saw Sunday night’s rout coming?

The Ravens did not just defeat the Bills. They physically overwhelmed them. The entire game was one long mismatch, from Derrick Henry’s 87-yard first-quarter touchdown through the 81-yard second quarter drive that ended with a Lamar Jackson-to-Justice Hill teardrop to the trick-play fumble forced by Kyle Van Noy that robbed the Bills of a brief surge of momentum and nearly robbed them of Allen. The Bills defense spent the whole evening on its heels. Allen spent most of it scrambling sideways. On a Sunday when several teams engineered near-comebacks after getting hammered in the first quarter (see below), the Bills were forced to surrender, removing Allen midway through the fourth quarter.

Yes, the Bills remain shortlist contenders. They are on pace to coast to the AFC East title now that the Jets have demonstrated that they remain capable of losing to anyone when the spirit doesn’t move them. And the Chiefs suffered another major blow in another narrow win: Rashee Rice may be out for the year with what appeared at presstime to be a torn ACL.

A humbling early-season reminder that they are mortal might just be what the Bills needed. Or it could be yet another reminder they remain not quite good enough to beat their toughest foes when it matters most.

As for the Ravens: imagine what their season might look like if Isaiah Likely kept both feet in the end zone in the opener, or if they mustered one more late-game first down against the Raiders. Lots of teams are a play here and a play there away from 4-0 (or 0-4), but none of those teams have clobbered the Bills. And while the Steelers currently lead the AFC North, no one who has watched both teams play can seriously believe that they are in the same weight class.

So congratulations if you foresaw Sunday’s Ravens blowout. For the rest of us, it was a reminder that there is a ton of football left to be played, that no team is unbeatable, and that the NFL remains delightfully unpredictable.

Adventures in Boat Racing

As of about 2:30 PM Eastern time on Sunday, the Vikings, Buccaneers and Colts held a combined 69-0 lead against a trio of ostensibly tough opponents. They all held on to win, despite comeback attempts of varying degrees of valiance and success.

This is the story of three strange games that may all eventually have significant playoff implications.

Adventures in Boat Racing Part I: Minnesota Vikings 31, Green Bay Packers 29

What Happened

The Vikings stomped out a 28-0 second-quarter lead against a Packers team that expected to open up its passing game with the return of Jordan Love. Sam Darnold threw three touchdowns in the first half, while Love threw two interceptions and the Packers missed a pair of field goals.

The Vikings offense faltered in the second half, with Darnold committing two turnovers while Love shook off the rust to cut the Packers deficit to 28-22 early in the fourth quarter. But Darnold engineered a short field goal drive to give the Vikings back a two-score lead. Byron Murphy then forced a Tyler Kraft fumble to stop a Packers rally. Love’s fourth touchdown pass came with 56 seconds left, making the final score much closer than the game really was.

What It Means for the Vikings

Skeptics are running out of ammunition to use against the Vikings. Their upsets of the 49ers and Texans came at home against opponents who might have been a bit gassed after primetime home victories the previous week, but the Vikings won at Lambeau against a team expecting a boost from the return of their young star quarterback. Darnold was again rock-solid, with Jordan Addison’s return giving him another playmaker. Brian Flores’ defense again provided all-angles confusion against an opponent that is supposed to have answers for such problems.