That is a really interesting item on a team I think very little about.
Seems a very positive medium term outlook: the cap position, the Murray contract, the draft picks... Different to previous times I noticed the Cards, when they never seemed set up for long term success since (Larry Fitzgerald aside) they were mostly squeezing the last juice out of guys you knew better from elsewhere: Kurt Warner, Carson Palmer, Chris Johnson, Dwight Freeney.....
On the other hand, could be Mike's just cursed them like he did the Falcons and they're about to lose 6 straight and be starting Clayton Tune by the 49ers game.
I get that we keep things punchy here, and I love that, but "a GM who couldn't pass a breathalyzer" is a pretty mean swipe at a dude who went to rehab for Ambien addiction related to what sounds like pretty major depression. The dude wasn't some lush or party-boy type. Terrible GM? Yeah, looks like it. Dservedly fired? Uh-huh. But that line felt like a miss to me.
Seeing how this got one 'Like', I figure I'll register one 'Dislike' this way (don't see any other way to, which I commend actually)
It's not Kingsbury's fault he's not all that bright, by NFL coordinator standards. Aaron Rodgers' upbringing (he hates his family) obviously played a part in his weird, conspiratorial outlook on life. I've no doubt DeShaun has a sex addiction of some kind he didn't volunteer for. Eberflus is working darn hard to keep his dream (and most of his staff's) job.
I really don't see how you single out the Keim thing from any of these other things in terms of "this one is inappropriate but those others aren't".
I like the rest of the points in your post, but I will quibble with one of your quibbles: DeShaun Watson may well have a Sex Addiction, but that's not the problem. An NFL quarterback has 24-hour, on-demand access to all the sex he and his supply of Cialis can handle, ten times over. What he more pertinently appears to have is a Rape Addiction. We can argue about how best to deal with that, but he belongs in prison, locked safely away from women he would hurt, while we argue about it.
I don't want to argue with you because you're as entitled to your opinion of what I wrote as I am of what Mike wrote. But I think the distinction here is that the underlying assertions in the cases you're describing are *true*: Rodgers is a conspiratorial dope and Watson is a sex pest and Kingsbury has been a failure and Eberflus is floundering.
The assertion about Keim *isn't* true -- I would be surprised if there's a Breathalyzer on the market that would pop you for abuse of prescription sleep aids, and saying he couldn't pass a Breathalyzer seems to me to be false, and therefore mean, as opposed to harsh but true. If Mike had said, e.g., "A GM who cracked like an egg under the pressure of running the Arizona Cardinals, for crying out loud," that would be harsh, but also true. Making it sound, to anyone who doesn't know the story, as if Keim is an Irsay-style goodtime guy, feels to me it crosses a line. You and Mike don't have to agree with my take, though I guess you have had to hear it.
I agree with you and yet I also understand where Collin's coming from. There's been a few digs in this and past columns that have gone too far for my personal taste. But NFL GMs, coaches and players are public figures and therefore are fair game for lampooning. At the same time, I think it's okay for people to put their hand up and say "that's a bit much". People are going to have different feelings on "what's too far" and I think its okay for them to express it. I also think its okay for Mike Tanier to go with whatever he thinks is fair game. (except for elephant analogies - I'm still scarred by that one)
FWIW, I had the same feeling as you re. the breathalyzer comment about Keim. He was a below average to bad GM, and I believe he was part of the Cards/Bidwell's burner phone scandal (look it up), so all that is fair game. From what I recall, it was reported that he had some substance abuse issues which may have included alchohol. If so, that's a health/addiction issue and I don't think the breathalyzer comment is fair game.
As someone who has followed MT for nearly 20 years since the days of NYT and SOE I knew that I wasn't signing up for Phil Collins. I just don't find addiction and mental health issues to be funny or joke-worthy. I'm old enough to remember a time when kids hurled words like "retard", "spaz" and "gay" as playground insults; luckily, we know better now. When I read the breathalyzer crack I thought it was "cringe" as my kids would say. Keim has plenty of mistakes on his resume that are fair game. A quick google search reveals Keim's now-public addiction and related mental health battles which should be off limits IMO. PS: I must confess that I had to google Ray Wylie Hubbard!
Yes, the willingness of posters to admit error in the face of objective evidence was one of the many things that set FO apart from all other internet discourse, and glad to see it continue here.
Is the difference in probability suggested by the money line and dvoa simulations significant (~4%)? I assume that is effectively tied. What sort of difference between the two would be significant and worth investigating? I'll have to remember to save this one for the next mailbag.
I think anyone who saw Gannon's training camp pep talk is surprised at watching them perform this year. "Did you take the bus? Did you have fire in your belly?" Passionate words that might still sound puzzling by a Dam Campbell rabble rouser.
But...delivered in a monotone soon to retire teacher level of intensity it was hilarious. Fire in the belly on the bus.
With the endless coverage of the top teams and top media markets, I’m all about a deep dive into the other half of the league. I haven’t seen a single Cardinal game this year so this article was for people like me who wondered if they were any good or if they were getting by on some combination of unsustainable turnover margin/easy schedule/luck. Sounds like this might be a team on the rise with all the young talent on offense and the 49ers and Rams looking at some significant roster turnover in the next year or two. I know if left out the Seahawks-it was intentional
Mike, I am damn glad you wrote this, because it makes me feel a little bit less like I might be making a fool of myself when I tell people the Cardinals are actually kinda good. They have an asskicking offensive line and (so far, for now) a playcaller who stays out of his own way and lets them kick ass. That alone is a recipe for a playoff team if the defense isn't Jaguars level terrible.
"Tanier Off the Leash" may be a better title for these columns...or, better yet, this Substack. I mean that as a compliment too. There were a lot of laughs in this analysis. Also, there are worse things to be known for than "the cad who impregnates a novitiate in a telenovela." Salute, Kingsberry!
"Owner Michael Bidwill is a grand-failson who illustrates what Mark Davis would be like if he had no taste instead of bad taste."
I'll say this about Mark Davis, he at least has the courage (or lack of self-awareness) to wear his goofiness on his sleeve. He would also be much more fun to hang out with than one of these rigid, ignorant, fail-son owners who never had the spark of life in their eyes.
Also, I'm noticing a depressing theme of rigid, ignorant, power-hungry fail-spawn being handed "leadership" roles inside NFL teams (and society) who then hire hyper-aggressive narcissistic GM/coaches to run their already downtrodden franchises further into the ground. Seeing the Cards put something together from the middleweight class of NFL management types is a nice story.
I've only watched one Arizona game from start to finish (against Detroit), and Kyler was forcing it to Harrison over and over again, regardless of whether he was covered or not. Anecdotally, I remember most of those targets as being uncatchable (he finished with 5 receptions on 11 targets for 64 yards and TD). I would not be surprised if this could be extrapolated over to the rest of their games.
I think this could possibly be a common reason for a low receiver completion rate. I remember in the 80s how, whenever the shot clock wound down to 5 or so seconds, the Celtics would get the ball to Larry Bird and "OK, let him get up SOMEthing!" Which had predictable impact on his shooting %.
I'm sure you could document whether or not the same thing happens with elite receivers (what % of their targets are later rather than earlier after the snap).
As someone who thought Kyler Murray has been wildly overrated for most of his career, I have to say he's doing much better than a "resurgence" -- he has never been this good before. Check out his PFR page. He's setting career-bests in completion rate and interception rate, and easily beating his career numbers in yards per pass and sack rate. And he's consistent too; his success rate ranged from 43.7% to 49.6% in his first fives seasons, but it's way up to 53.3% this year, second only to Jared Goff. Oh, did I mention that he's averaging over EIGHT yards per carry, on four or five carries per game? If he can keep this up for multiple years, the Cardinals are going to be a big problem not just in their division, but for the entire NFL.
"if anyone thought the Bears were "for real" at any point, he or she has no clue."
They started the year 4-2 and those 2 losses were both by less than a touchdown. That was despite a rookie QB who was clearly struggling (and would presumably get better). Yes, two of those wins were against weaklings Jacksonville and Carolina, but they beat those weaklings decisively, by 19 points and 26 points, like good teams do.
I don't know what counts as "real" to you, but Chicago at that point looked like a good middleweight team with room to improve. They lost their next game by only 3 points to a hot Washington team. Then came their first bad loss, to the Cardinals, mentioned in this article, and afterwards the bottom fell out against New England. And then this week the blocked FG loss to GB.
Again, I don't know what your criteria is for a team to "for real", but their results suggest they are on the verge of becoming a playoff team and likely will be if Williams evolves to become a true #1 QB draft pick instead of a liability, which he is right now.
Are you sure you are familiar enough with the team to write that Thursday column?
*laughs through a mouth full of scrapple*
That is a really interesting item on a team I think very little about.
Seems a very positive medium term outlook: the cap position, the Murray contract, the draft picks... Different to previous times I noticed the Cards, when they never seemed set up for long term success since (Larry Fitzgerald aside) they were mostly squeezing the last juice out of guys you knew better from elsewhere: Kurt Warner, Carson Palmer, Chris Johnson, Dwight Freeney.....
On the other hand, could be Mike's just cursed them like he did the Falcons and they're about to lose 6 straight and be starting Clayton Tune by the 49ers game.
I get that we keep things punchy here, and I love that, but "a GM who couldn't pass a breathalyzer" is a pretty mean swipe at a dude who went to rehab for Ambien addiction related to what sounds like pretty major depression. The dude wasn't some lush or party-boy type. Terrible GM? Yeah, looks like it. Dservedly fired? Uh-huh. But that line felt like a miss to me.
Seeing how this got one 'Like', I figure I'll register one 'Dislike' this way (don't see any other way to, which I commend actually)
It's not Kingsbury's fault he's not all that bright, by NFL coordinator standards. Aaron Rodgers' upbringing (he hates his family) obviously played a part in his weird, conspiratorial outlook on life. I've no doubt DeShaun has a sex addiction of some kind he didn't volunteer for. Eberflus is working darn hard to keep his dream (and most of his staff's) job.
I really don't see how you single out the Keim thing from any of these other things in terms of "this one is inappropriate but those others aren't".
I like the rest of the points in your post, but I will quibble with one of your quibbles: DeShaun Watson may well have a Sex Addiction, but that's not the problem. An NFL quarterback has 24-hour, on-demand access to all the sex he and his supply of Cialis can handle, ten times over. What he more pertinently appears to have is a Rape Addiction. We can argue about how best to deal with that, but he belongs in prison, locked safely away from women he would hurt, while we argue about it.
I don't want to argue with you because you're as entitled to your opinion of what I wrote as I am of what Mike wrote. But I think the distinction here is that the underlying assertions in the cases you're describing are *true*: Rodgers is a conspiratorial dope and Watson is a sex pest and Kingsbury has been a failure and Eberflus is floundering.
The assertion about Keim *isn't* true -- I would be surprised if there's a Breathalyzer on the market that would pop you for abuse of prescription sleep aids, and saying he couldn't pass a Breathalyzer seems to me to be false, and therefore mean, as opposed to harsh but true. If Mike had said, e.g., "A GM who cracked like an egg under the pressure of running the Arizona Cardinals, for crying out loud," that would be harsh, but also true. Making it sound, to anyone who doesn't know the story, as if Keim is an Irsay-style goodtime guy, feels to me it crosses a line. You and Mike don't have to agree with my take, though I guess you have had to hear it.
Steve Keim was cited for DUI in 2018.
Oh noooooo lol.
Welp I regret to report I have once again looked dumb on the internet.
Very very tempted to just delete this whole thread but maybe I should just preserve it as an art piece titled "How to Own Yourself."
You don't look dumb. You look like you have integrity. I'd have doubled down on "its an even worse joke now I know its DUI and mental health" :)
I don’t think you need to apologize for showing compassion for another human being.
It doesn’t bother me too much, I figure we’re all grown-ups here, but that doesn’t make me right.
I agree with you and yet I also understand where Collin's coming from. There's been a few digs in this and past columns that have gone too far for my personal taste. But NFL GMs, coaches and players are public figures and therefore are fair game for lampooning. At the same time, I think it's okay for people to put their hand up and say "that's a bit much". People are going to have different feelings on "what's too far" and I think its okay for them to express it. I also think its okay for Mike Tanier to go with whatever he thinks is fair game. (except for elephant analogies - I'm still scarred by that one)
FWIW, I had the same feeling as you re. the breathalyzer comment about Keim. He was a below average to bad GM, and I believe he was part of the Cards/Bidwell's burner phone scandal (look it up), so all that is fair game. From what I recall, it was reported that he had some substance abuse issues which may have included alchohol. If so, that's a health/addiction issue and I don't think the breathalyzer comment is fair game.
I am going to respectfully disagree. Part of what makes this writer different is the way he straddles that arbitrary line.
We bought tickets to see Ray Wylie Hubbard, not Phil Collins.
As someone who has followed MT for nearly 20 years since the days of NYT and SOE I knew that I wasn't signing up for Phil Collins. I just don't find addiction and mental health issues to be funny or joke-worthy. I'm old enough to remember a time when kids hurled words like "retard", "spaz" and "gay" as playground insults; luckily, we know better now. When I read the breathalyzer crack I thought it was "cringe" as my kids would say. Keim has plenty of mistakes on his resume that are fair game. A quick google search reveals Keim's now-public addiction and related mental health battles which should be off limits IMO. PS: I must confess that I had to google Ray Wylie Hubbard!
Yes, the willingness of posters to admit error in the face of objective evidence was one of the many things that set FO apart from all other internet discourse, and glad to see it continue here.
Is the difference in probability suggested by the money line and dvoa simulations significant (~4%)? I assume that is effectively tied. What sort of difference between the two would be significant and worth investigating? I'll have to remember to save this one for the next mailbag.
I think anyone who saw Gannon's training camp pep talk is surprised at watching them perform this year. "Did you take the bus? Did you have fire in your belly?" Passionate words that might still sound puzzling by a Dam Campbell rabble rouser.
But...delivered in a monotone soon to retire teacher level of intensity it was hilarious. Fire in the belly on the bus.
With the endless coverage of the top teams and top media markets, I’m all about a deep dive into the other half of the league. I haven’t seen a single Cardinal game this year so this article was for people like me who wondered if they were any good or if they were getting by on some combination of unsustainable turnover margin/easy schedule/luck. Sounds like this might be a team on the rise with all the young talent on offense and the 49ers and Rams looking at some significant roster turnover in the next year or two. I know if left out the Seahawks-it was intentional
Mike, I am damn glad you wrote this, because it makes me feel a little bit less like I might be making a fool of myself when I tell people the Cardinals are actually kinda good. They have an asskicking offensive line and (so far, for now) a playcaller who stays out of his own way and lets them kick ass. That alone is a recipe for a playoff team if the defense isn't Jaguars level terrible.
"Tanier Off the Leash" may be a better title for these columns...or, better yet, this Substack. I mean that as a compliment too. There were a lot of laughs in this analysis. Also, there are worse things to be known for than "the cad who impregnates a novitiate in a telenovela." Salute, Kingsberry!
"Owner Michael Bidwill is a grand-failson who illustrates what Mark Davis would be like if he had no taste instead of bad taste."
I'll say this about Mark Davis, he at least has the courage (or lack of self-awareness) to wear his goofiness on his sleeve. He would also be much more fun to hang out with than one of these rigid, ignorant, fail-son owners who never had the spark of life in their eyes.
Also, I'm noticing a depressing theme of rigid, ignorant, power-hungry fail-spawn being handed "leadership" roles inside NFL teams (and society) who then hire hyper-aggressive narcissistic GM/coaches to run their already downtrodden franchises further into the ground. Seeing the Cards put something together from the middleweight class of NFL management types is a nice story.
They manhandled the Chargers in that Monday night game. And the announcers were full of Campbellesque quotes from Gannon.
The coaching moves ( Kliff to DC and Gannon to the desert) seem to have benefited nothing tsams.
I am surprised to see such a low completion rate for Harrison – he caught everything in his general vicinity in college.
I've only watched one Arizona game from start to finish (against Detroit), and Kyler was forcing it to Harrison over and over again, regardless of whether he was covered or not. Anecdotally, I remember most of those targets as being uncatchable (he finished with 5 receptions on 11 targets for 64 yards and TD). I would not be surprised if this could be extrapolated over to the rest of their games.
I think this could possibly be a common reason for a low receiver completion rate. I remember in the 80s how, whenever the shot clock wound down to 5 or so seconds, the Celtics would get the ball to Larry Bird and "OK, let him get up SOMEthing!" Which had predictable impact on his shooting %.
I'm sure you could document whether or not the same thing happens with elite receivers (what % of their targets are later rather than earlier after the snap).
Good idea. Good article. 👍🏻👍🏻
Over/under on how many times Mike works some Kingsbury shade into his Eagles column? (And to be clear, the shadier, the better.)
As someone who thought Kyler Murray has been wildly overrated for most of his career, I have to say he's doing much better than a "resurgence" -- he has never been this good before. Check out his PFR page. He's setting career-bests in completion rate and interception rate, and easily beating his career numbers in yards per pass and sack rate. And he's consistent too; his success rate ranged from 43.7% to 49.6% in his first fives seasons, but it's way up to 53.3% this year, second only to Jared Goff. Oh, did I mention that he's averaging over EIGHT yards per carry, on four or five carries per game? If he can keep this up for multiple years, the Cardinals are going to be a big problem not just in their division, but for the entire NFL.
Noteworthy? Don't forget the glory days of Kurt Warner in the desert.
Love the new feature.
Mike says the Eagles are the next team to be featured in this spot.
"if anyone thought the Bears were "for real" at any point, he or she has no clue."
They started the year 4-2 and those 2 losses were both by less than a touchdown. That was despite a rookie QB who was clearly struggling (and would presumably get better). Yes, two of those wins were against weaklings Jacksonville and Carolina, but they beat those weaklings decisively, by 19 points and 26 points, like good teams do.
I don't know what counts as "real" to you, but Chicago at that point looked like a good middleweight team with room to improve. They lost their next game by only 3 points to a hot Washington team. Then came their first bad loss, to the Cardinals, mentioned in this article, and afterwards the bottom fell out against New England. And then this week the blocked FG loss to GB.
Again, I don't know what your criteria is for a team to "for real", but their results suggest they are on the verge of becoming a playoff team and likely will be if Williams evolves to become a true #1 QB draft pick instead of a liability, which he is right now.