Closing Arguments: The Meh Teams

Can the Falcons, Steelers, Patriots or some other team on the fringe of the playoff conversation make a run this year?

This is Part 3 of a four-part series of “closing arguments:” a catchup show on preseason and training camp news and gossip mixed with a final appraisal of each team. You probably want to go back and read Part 1 (no subscription necessary), which covers the top Super Bowl contenders, before sinking into this quagmire of kinda-sorta playoff maybes.

The teams that wound up in this category all had +100 or higher moneylines to reach the playoffs at DraftKings as of August 24th but were not likely candidates to finish with the NFL’s worst record. Playoff arguments can be made for all of them. Even the Falcons. Heck, especially the Falcons! But when you have to build a “playoff argument” for a team in a league where 43.75% of teams reach the playoffs, well, that’s pretty meh.

The prop bets accompanying each team are not recommended wagers. They just provide us with a sense of the objective expectations for each team.

Arizona Cardinals

Prop Bet of Note: +115 to make the playoffs.

Theo Mackie of the Arizona Republic wrote a “Three Standouts” feature after the 27-7 Cardinals loss to the Broncos in the second preseason game. Such features are indispensable for national spitballers like me tasked with keeping track of 32 sets of training camp storylines. Mackie’s choices from an admittedly languid game: Jacoby Brissett (receiver Simi Feheko compared Brissett to Justin Herbert, which … nevermind); seventh-round cornerback Kitan Crawford (whom Mackie admits “did not have a perfect day”) and backup running back Trey Benson (who did not play in the Broncos game, meaning his roster spot is likely secure).

So the three standouts were the veteran backup quarterback, a kid who made some obvious mistakes and someone who didn’t play? I get what Mackie was going for, but his article reinforced my notion that the Cardinals are a hard team to pay serious attention to, even if that’s specifically your job.

Tastemakers and the DVOA projections see a potential playoff team in Arizona: their 2024 defensive metrics were good, they invested heavily in their defense in the offseason, Marvin Harrison Jr. has breakout potential, and the schedule is manageable.

I still see a team that went out of its way to fade down the stretch in three out of the last four years, a quarterback still coasting on “prospect” vibes after six full seasons and a weak-tea Matt Eberflus wannabe as a head coach. Cardinals optimism, like Mackie’s standout report, sounds too much like a case of filling lots of blank spaces with what we hope to see.

Atlanta Falcons

Prop Bet of Note: +240 to win the NFC South

Raheem Morris’ decision to give Michael Penix the Josh Allen treatment by not playing him at all in the preseason smacks of “fake it ‘till you make it” reasoning. The Falcons have not earned the benefit of the doubt necessary to mothball their starters for an entire month.

All we saw or heard from Penix this summer was middle-school cafeteria gossip about a brawl with the Titans defense which, again, sounded like mythmaking to spackle over the whispers of some tepid training camp performances. (Cam Ward also got into a much-publicized scuffle with his own defense. Maybe the Titans defense is just a bunch of jobbers who like to help the babyfaces get over.)

Penix and Kyle Pitts have also been golfing together a lot lately. That’s just what you want to hear, right? Some leisure-time mentorship from Pitts, the very living paragon of fulfilled Falcons expectations?

Meanwhile, James Pearce has looked solid enough in preseason action, but fellow first-round edge rusher Jalon Walker has been sidelined twice with hamstring injuries this summer.

Coaches expect Walker to be ready-ish for the season opener. The same cannot be said of right tackle Kaleb McGary, however: he will miss significant time with a leg injury. Storm Norton, McGary’s backup, is also out for a while after ankle surgery. The Falcons quietly had a top-quartile offensive line entering the preseason. They won’t have one for the opener against the Bucs.

The Bucs have endured greater injury issues than the Falcons this summer, so there’s still a chance that the NFC South will stoop low enough to scoop the Falcons to the top, assuming Penix doesn’t learn the wrong lessons from Pitts. Set the bar low enough and you are bound to succeed someday.

Chicago Bears

Prop Bet of Note: Over 8.5 wins at +115.

It appeared as though Ben Johnson had insta-fixed Caleb Williams when the second-year quarterback carved through the Bills backups in the second preseason game. Bad Caleb quickly returned against the Chiefs starters in the preseason finale, however: holding the ball too long and nervously skittering toward the sidelines in search of a hero ball on dropback after dropback, at least until Chris Jones and company grabbed their Gatorade.

Johnson, who has come across as a Grumpy Gus throughout training camp, surely knew what he was doing. He wanted to provide a little proof-of-concept, plus a boost of confidence for Williams, with a meticulously-scripted preseason debut. Then came time to reignite the fire under the youngster’s tuchus, lest he float away on a cloud of unrealistic expectations.

Johnson has been doing much more throughout the preseason than just making Williams try to grab the pebble from his palm. The Bears are still playing mix ‘n’ match at left tackle, where Braxton Jones is probably the temporary starter. The Lions line wasn’t built overnight, after all. Cornerback is supposed to be the strength of the roster, but Terell Smith is now out for the year, while Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon and rookie Zah Frazier have been dealing with various injuries.

This is not a stealth playoff contender that had a triumphant offseason. It’s a rebuilding team that looked great against backups for a half hour on Sunday Night Football. Success will come in the form of a confident-yet-grounded and fully-functional Williams, not a playoff run. Johnson surely sees his enigmatic young quarterback as a work in long-term progress. You should too.

Dallas Cowboys

Prop Bet of Note: Over 8.5 wins at +120

The Cowboys are more of a Facebook rant than a football team these days. In my day, Sonny, you could get three outside linebackers for a nickel at Woolworth’s. We used to wedge them in the spokes of our bicycles and ride down to the swimmin’ hole to go skinny-dipping with Betty Jo Butternubs. And if any dadgum troublemaker tried to hold out for more money, the sheriff and his boys would train the fire hose on ‘em.

The Cowboys’ offseason effort to rebrand themselves as a tire retreading plant does not appear to be paying dividends. Former Vikings prospect Andrew Booth recorded a preseason Pick-6, but none of the other early-2020s redraftables (Kaiir Elam, Payton Turner, Jonathan Mingo, Miles Sanders) have stood out. Another reclamation project, Kenneth Murray, is penciled in as a starter and therefore did not play a preseason snap. Nor has Murray gotten any camp notices, good or bad. That will happen when the entire press pool is chasing Micah Parsons breadcrumbs.

You either believe in vibes or you don’t. If you don’t believe in vibes, you have likely never worked in a truly positive or downright poisonous workplace. You can guess which category the Cowboys fall into.

As is typically the case for the Cowboys, sheer frontline talent could get them to nine wins, assuming Jerry Jones blinks and pays Parsons before the first day of autumn. But this is a team that (once again) will look for an excuse to enter power-saver mode at the first sign of adversity.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Prop Bet of Note: +180 to reach the playoffs.

No team made the routine look impossible like the Jaguars did over the last two seasons. When forced to convert on third-and-short or at the goalline, Doug Pederson’s team always looked like it had been sleepwalking through low-impact practices for months, because it had.

One of Liam Coen’s primary tasks this offseason has been to reinstill attention to detail. It was disheartening, therefore, to watch Trevor Lawrence march the Jaguars to the 11-yard line against the Saints, get tripped up by one of his linemen, lunge football-first at Tank Bigsby’s belly and turn a routine handoff into a turnover.

The Lawrence conversation is tiresome. He’ll be fine, and probably very good, if healthy and not surrounded by saboteurs. The Travis Hunter experiment remains intriguing, but I wish some team like the Bills or Lions were running it: a playmaking cornerback/receiver hybrid sounds more like an added value for a Super Bowl contender than a team treading water in a weak division.

Coen has been juggling offensive linemen throughout training camp, and it wasn’t clear at presstime who the starters on the right side would be. Bigsby and tight end Brenton Strange appear headed for increased offensive roles, with Bigsby supplanting Travis Etienne, who was on scholarship under Pederson. Khalen Saunders arrived late in camp to provide a high-effort journeyman on the defensive line next to Arik Armstead, who you will be unsurprised to learn was in and out of practice with injuries.

The FTN Almanac projects the Jaguars to win the AFC South. I now think the projections short-changed the Texans and underestimated Coen’s desire to refurbish parts of the roster. But the Jaguars have a soft schedule, a nasty pass rush and, yes, a very gifted quarterback who is now running a friendly scheme. They, like their quarterback, should be fine. We’ll see about “very good.”

New England Patriots

Prop Bet of Note: Over 8.5 wins at +100

Drake Maye has looked shaky in the preseason, but at least we have seen him: Mike Vrabel isn’t playing hide-the-youngster the way the Falcons are. Vrabel has been publicly critical of Maye’s mistakes and need for improvement; again, that’s refreshing in a league where too many young quarterbacks get the HE HAS ARRIVED treatment for the most meager of accomplishments. Vrabel and Ben Johnson have a little in common on this front.

Vrabel has also been sending not-so-subtle “I’m the boss now” messages. Safety Kyle Dugger, a starter for four years, spent late August on the trade block before making the first round of cuts. Offensive lineman Cole Strange, Bill Belichick’s wackiest first-round reach, wasn’t so lucky. Receiver Ja’Lynn Polk, a second-round pick last year, might have been sacrificed at the altar of “no job is safe” if not for a late-camp injury that landed him on IR.

Also, any reporter who dares to ask whether Stefon Diggs will be ready for the season opener ends up with an earful of Vrabel spittle. It sounds like Diggs will play. Vrabel later lamented that Patriots headquarters was full of “rats” because news of the Polk injury leaked. Charming, right? We’re still all pretending stuff like this is charming and not standard-issue tinpot Baby Belichick bulls**t?

Vrabel’s grouchiness is being framed as culture building. The Patriots definitely need a better culture than the one established by [checks notes] the winningest coach in NFL history and one of his most loyal lieutenants. But if you’re a believer in Vrabel as a program-builder, then you also shouldn’t expect instant results, no matter how many free agents the Patriots added in the preseason or how impressive Will Campbell and TreVeyon Henderson have looked.

The moneyline above illustrates the dichotomy of Patriots analysis. It’s one thing to gas up Maye, swoon over Vrabel’s shtick, be impressed by the rookies/free agent haul and say things like, “the Patriots could be pretty good this year!” It’s another thing to admit that you would need more like +130 to bet on them having a winning season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Prop Bet of Note: Over 8.5 wins at -115.

The Steelers twiddled their thumbs with no quarterback until well into spring, when they signed a 41-year old cuckoo bird who left a smoldering impact crater at his last stop.

At one point, they had two touchy one-dimensional deep-threat receivers on the roster, though they traded the more temperamental (and talented) one away. They also traded one of their defensive leaders, a five-time Pro Bowler, for an ultra-talent with a touchy reputation of his own who may also be sliding toward the downside of his career.

The Steelers’ best player held out for much of the summer before signing a record-setting contract. Another core defender staged a “hold in” until last Wednesday. The defense looks old. The skill-position talent is charitably second-tier. The offensive coordinator is a dilettante whose most brilliant tactical innovation was GIVE DERRICK HENRY BALL, though the cuckoo bird quarterback hasn’t listened to any coach besides emotional-support-labradoodle Nathaniel Hackett since about 2016.

This is mayhem. Utter mayhem. Yet Mike Tomlin has conditioned us to shrug all of it off and pencil in a 9-8, 8-7-1 or 7-6-4 season.

Tomlin and Rodgers are the irresistible force and the immovable object, respectively. I’d have more faith in the force if it didn’t look more like central tendency than excellence. Post-Roethlisberger Tomlin gets lots of credit for never quite letting the Steelers become the Browns.

Belief that Rodgers is still a quality quarterback and a non-negative organizational presence, on the other hand, means mind-wiping the last two years and reading his 2024 stat line the way a preschooler reads “Green Eggs and Ham.” Rodgers isn’t even pretending to be a normal human anymore; he has just learned to keep quiet and let contrarian arguments do the job for him. He’ll be a political superstar in no time.

This is my called shot: we’re about to see Rodgers’ Matt-Ryan-with-the-Colts year. No offensive line on earth will be able to protect Rodgers, no one will be able to pretend he’s playing well, and the organization will be thrown into chaos about what to do next.

That Ryan season ended with one of the owner’s buddies getting pulled off the street to coach the team. Tomlin will escape such a humiliating fate. But that will have to count as his latest “non-losing season.”

Seattle Seahawks

Prop Bet of Note: +170 to reach the playoffs.

The Seahawks were still sifting through potential starters on the offensive line as camp ended. Rookie Grey Zabel appears to have locked down one guard spot, with Anthony Bradford at the other. But center Olu Oluwatimi and left tackle Charles Cross were hurt for long stretches of camp. Jalen Sundell pushed for the center job in Oluwatimi’s absence.

Cross and Zabel are probably the only players in the previous paragraph you have remotely heard of, so enthusiasm about the Seahawks line should remain tempered. Remember: these guys will be blocking for Sam Bradford, whose fight-or-flight reflex under pressure is stuck on “freeze.”

Bradford has gotten the sorts of accolades veteran journeymen typically get when joining a new team. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has clicked with Bradford, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has not, and Cooper Kupp is getting treated by the Seahawks media like some visiting dignitary, not a key starter who has been in slow decline since 2021. Rookie tight end Elijah Arroyo has gone from draft sleeper to fantasy sleeper, for whatever that’s worth. Klint Kubiak’s gropo offense looks interesting, but we only wax poetic about I-formation tactics when we’ve lowered our expectations that a team can do anything else.

A late edit: the Seahawks are also discussing a Jalen Milroe Wildcat package. Sounds like Kubiak got a little Taysom on the brain in New Orleans. But Darnold is exactly the sort of quarterback who could benefit from a little Hamburger Helper in the playbook.

I am less skeptical about the Seahawks now than I was when they purposely downgraded their passing game in free agency. The defense should be pretty good. Ball-control tactics should keep them in games and Darnold out of the fetal position. They’ve escaped camp relatively healthy, especially compared to the 49ers. Slow-and-steady probably won’t win the NFC West. But at least the Seahawks don’t feel like they are in a holding pattern anymore. Whatever they are doing, they are doing it on purpose.

COMING TOMORROW: The Stinky-Poo Teams.