Closing Arguments: The Playoff Hopefuls
What did training camp and the preseason tell us about the Texans', Broncos', Buccaneers' or other teams' chances of gate-crashing the Super Bowl conversation?
Welcome to Part 2 of a four-part offseason wrap-up/season preview. It’s designed to be a catchup show for those of you who didn’t compulsively monitor all 32 NFL teams for the last six weeks or months: camp battle resolutions, injury updates, vibe checks. Part 1 covered the Super Bowl contenders.
“Playoff hopefuls,” for our purposes, are teams with -100 or lower moneylines to reach the playoffs at DraftKings who were not covered in Part 1. If you are upset that the Steelers, Patriots or Cardinals are not featured here, your quarrel is with the oddsmakers, not Too Deep Zone; we will get to those teams tomorrow.
If you are upset that the Falcons are not featured here, you must be a new customer. Welcome!
The prop bets featured for each team are NOT endorsements. I wouldn’t play some of them with money I found buried on the beach. They were included to keep us grounded about each team’s general expectations.
Cincinnati Bengals
Prop Bet of Note: Joe Burrow +650 to win MVP.
The Bengals are a football team run by a committee of deadbeat stepdads. Oh, so you wanna see starters in the preseason, do ya? Well, we’re gonna make you SMOKE A WHOLE CARTON OF STARTERS in the preseason. Joe Burrow’s gonna stay in the game until he gets sacked for an 18-yard loss AND horse-collared! He’s gonna throw to his backup receivers for a series. PUKE ON BURROW, KIDDO. That will teach you to whine about the team’s record in September.
Meanwhile, the starting Bengals defense looked like a slip ‘n’ slide without Trey Hendrickson against the Eagles and Commanders. And what does the organization say about that? Oh, I guess you think we’re made of money? We’re NOT buying you an asthma inhaler, you overdramatic sissy. Coughing and wheezing while walking to school builds character.
Hendrickson and the Bengals duct-taped over their issues on Monday. Even those who anticipated Hendrickson’s return were penciling the Bengals in for a series of games with 41-38 final scores. Some anticipate 10 wins, some anticipate 10 losses, and the difference may come down to what we think about opponents like the Steelers, Broncos and Vikings. But there are too many Lions, Bills and (of course) Ravens on the schedule for me to trust a team this min-maxed on one side of the football.
The Bengals are the only team in this entire series to get a player prop bet. I think if they go 7-10 or better under the circumstances outlined in the last paragraph, and Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson just have their typically awesome years, the awards voters will hive-mind their way to declaring this Burrow’s year. Unless Jared Goff throws 40 touchdowns without Ben Johnson, in which case the award will go to Allen or Jackson.
Denver Broncos
Prop Bet of Note: +275 to lose in the Wild Card round.
The key preseason game for the Broncos turned out to be the 1.5th-stringer-on-2.33333rd-stringer yawner against the Cardinals. Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant performed so well as both receivers and blockers – Bryant trucked a cornerback on a long Evan Engram catch-and-run – that Sean Payton felt comfortable trading Devaughn Vele to the Saints.
Rookie running back RJ Harvey also squirted for a touchdown against the Cardinals, and the Broncos should now have a strong backfield rotation with Harvey, hard-nosed Tyler Badie, the various speedsters they have collected over the years and (for the three weeks he is healthy) J.K. Dobbins.
The Broncos defense is mostly stacked. Like many playoff teams, they appear to be one cornerback short of a full set, though rookie Jahdae Barron and ever-embattled Ja’Quan McMillan give them options beyond the excellent Pat Surtain and the so-so Riley Moss.
Bo Nix remains so boring that it’s easy to assume that he’s secretly bad. I’m unsold on him making a second-year leap onto even some theoretical “B-tier.” But if any coach can convince me that perpetual checkdowns and dump-offs are sexy, it’s Payton.