DangeRUSS Minds (Mailbag Part I)

Russell Wilson's resurgence, the Saquon Barkley "conversation," a kicker slump that's not really a slump, and much more.

Greetings, True Believers! Your humble master of mayhem is a little under the weather this week. (I always channel Stan Lee when I'm feverish.) Fortunately, you asked such interesting Mailbag questions that it was easy to push through the Dayquil haze to provide answers.

Here’s the first batch of questions. If yours isn’t answered here, look for Part II of Mailbag later in the week!

Pittsburgh QB Russell Wilson is quietly having an excellent season, and the most remarkable word in that sentence is "quietly". Has he really changed, or is the media environment in Pittsburgh that different from that in Denver or Seattle? – Ken Kousen

It’s easy – and very common – for an NFL franchise to shield its franchise quarterback from personality-based criticism by the local media. It’s a simple matter for the media relations director to issue a “Don’t Report That” order when the quarterback is leading a visualization circle at the 50-yard line during minicamp. Veteran players also get used to their quarterback’s shtick, and youngsters don’t dare cross the local legend, so nobody gossips.

From what I have been told, Wilson did lots of famebrained stuff in Seattle in the late 2010s, but the media knew what not to report if they hoped to keep access. The defensive veterans on those teams were often frustrated by Wilson’s increasingly whackadoodle behavior but weren’t inclined to jeopardize the team’s Super Bowl chances by calling him out publicly.

When a famous quarterback changes teams, that media shielding must be reestablished. But the new team’s media department might not know what to look for. The last quarterback got in shouting matches with the coach or would only practice for half a session. This one does tumblesaults down the aisle on team flights. Who knew that was even something to worry about?

Media departments also take a surprising amount of cues from the head coach, and different coaches have different attitudes toward the media. (Andy Reid is a stickler who will politely banish you to the volleyball beat if he doesn’t like how you comport yourself; Chip Kelly was an anarchist who stopped just short of letting reporters take snaps.) Nathaniel Hackett, fresh from Green Bay’s utterly-cowed press pool and also a blithering idiot, probably had no idea that he needed to tell his PR guys to lean on reporters who were writing about Wilson’s peccadillos. And Wilson himself was publishing some of the loopiest stuff on his socials.

I believe Wilson was humbled by the Broncos experience, and his brain rebooted in Normal Person Mode as a result. Wilson is also now getting better coaching and playcalling than he theoretically received from Hackett, and he’s not at war with his coach as he was under Sean Payton. I think he’s experiencing more of a brief encore than a resurgence, and I wouldn’t sign him to a three-year contract or anything, but it’s rewarding to see a player of Wilson’s caliber pull out of a late-career Howard Hughes spiral.

So after Sunday, MVP is now Josh Allen’s award to lose, but Saquon Barkley is not completely ridiculous either. What would it take for Barkley to come away with it? And why can’t I find a place to lay a bet on Howie Roseman as executive of the year? – Tom Burton

Luis Guilherme chimed in on this one in the Mailbag thread before I got to it.

To win the MVP, Barkley needs to become a QB. Sorry, I don't make the rules, and if that was not the case, Trent Williams or Christian McCaffrey would have won last year.

As I write this, Josh Allen is getting a -225 moneyline for MVP. Saquon Barkley’s moneyline is +350. Lamar Jackson stands at +900. It’s a three-horse race. Jared Goff (+1200) is considered too much of a cog in a machine to merit serious consideration.

To Luis’ point: Only one non-quarterback has received a vote (or a first-place vote, in our current era of weighted balloting) for MVP since 2018: Cooper Kupp received one in 2021. The selectors keep telling us that MVP is a quarterback’s award, but we stump for skill position players each year, in part because “the MVP conversation” has become an excruciating content model.

(As an aside: you have probably seen/heard me swallow my tongue during podcasts or radio appearances at the phrase “MVP conversation.” That’s because the phrase MVP conversation is an SEO byproduct. If you want to get clicks, you write headlines like “Justin Herbert Belongs in the MVP Conversation.” You get web-friendly keywords “Justin Herbert” and “MVP” in the headline while distancing yourself from saying anything too silly. A good rule of thumb for those of us who aren’t chasing clicks the way my dog chases a meatball that rolls under the table: if you wouldn’t bet a dollar on it, then there ain’t no conversation.)

For Barkley to have a chance, both Allen and Jackson must endure epic late-season slumps: interception sprees, multiple ugly losses. And Barkley would have to clear 2,000 yards, dissuading the quarterback-or-bust voters from turning to Goff or talking themselves into Patrick Mahomes by default.

Roseman is the NFL’s best executive. I think it took Zach Baun’s success for my neighborhood Boo Birds to finally start giving him credit. Seriously: Howie built two extremely different Super Bowl teams in six years, but he didn’t earn any Philly street cred until he stole a linebacker from the Saints.

Looking at the next 3 years, which team is the most doomed? – Daniel Winslow

The Browns are the easy answer – assuming they cut Deshaun Watson in the offseason, they will eat $118 million in 2025 cap space, with a similarly super-sized serving in 2026 – but they may not be the right answer.

The Browns have a strong coaching staff, a stable front office and some playoff-caliber talent that is still with the program. They have also already moved on emotionally from Watson. The Jets, on the other hand, are still getting their dignity pulverized by Aaron Rodgers on a weekly basis. They have no coach or GM, important youngsters like Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner have backslid a bit this season, and Rodgers’ contract is a finger trap. The Jets may struggle to find anyone willing to clean up this year’s mess.

Not to kick them when they are down, but the 49ers performed lots of fuzzy accounting to keep their Super Bowl nucleus intact. There are significant 2026 cap figures on the books for Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Brandon Aiyuk and others, plus void years for George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Kyle Juszczyk and more. Paying Brock Purdy, meanwhile, is both unavoidable and looking more and more like a very expensive compromise. If 2024 marks the beginning of the end for the Kyle Shanahan 49ers, it will take a while to reach the end of the end.

In the reverse – which current seemingly doomed team do you see having a chance to become respectable in the next three years? – Josh R.

The Raiders have lots of future cap space, no wasteful player contracts and just had an outstanding draft that produced Brock Bowers and two starting offensive linemen. Give them a real coach, a real quarterback and one more offensive playmaker and they could do in 2025 what the Broncos are doing in 2024.

The Patriots have Drake Maye and $132 million in paper cap space for 2025. There’s a lot of work to be done across their roster, but they no longer smell like grandpa’s foot ointment.

There were some other Raiders questions in the Mailbag. I hope to cover them later in the week.

On a scale from Yanni’s Greatest Hits to Best of Air Supply, how boring are kickoffs now? Not that I disagree with the express intent of reducing the car crash collisions of the previous regime, but this nonsense evokes the same feelings I get when they spot a runner on base in extra innings. Can we fix this? I saw it live for the first time and it was as underwhelming expected.

(No shade intended on folks who like very light music, I have very open ears and a record collection habit. Pitch me The Master of the Pan Flute and I might end up in the fan club. ) – Lou Doench

Kickoffs have always been boring. The NFL kickoff return average hovered around 20.0 for decades. Since most kickoffs landed near the goal line, the vast majority of returns were essentially equivalent to touchbacks. There were three kickoff return touchdowns across the entire league during the 1983 regular season. I was running to the bathroom during kickoffs as a preteen.

There were only 587 kickoff returns all of last year, as kickers just booted the ball through the back of the end zone most of the time. The kickoff existed as a bit of business to show before Tony Romo over-analyzed the previous touchdown. It was the perfect time to check the live moneylines.

There have already been 644 kickoff returns this season, with five weeks left to play. The kickoff return average is 27.3. In Week 13 alone, we saw exciting long returns by Kene Nwangku (Jets touchdown), Deebo Samuel (60 yards in the snow) and Ameer Abdullah (68 yards against the Chiefs), plus some 30-40 yarders and a bunch of fumbles by Seahawks and Titans returners. We are also seeing strategic variety, as teams seem to be trying to force touchbacks when facing top returners like KaVontae Turpin or Derius Davis.

Lou mentioned baseball’s ghost runner, and I think the new kickoff rule triggers the same CHANGE IS BAD receptors in the brain, even though it is not nearly as drippy. If you focus on kickoffs, you will see that most of them aren’t all that exciting. But you never, ever focused on kickoffs until the NFL changed the rule.

As for Yanni and his ilk, I have nothing to add to this:

What’s going on with kickers? It seems many teams are dealing with kickers missing short-to-medium FGs and XPs. Are we just paying closer attention because of Tucker and Koo and Moody, etc., or are kickers missing more this season? – Kevin Langstaff

Kickers are NOT having a league-wide slump this season. Here are the conversion rates for 30-39 yard field goals over the last three years.

• 2022: 92.2%

• 2023: 94.8%

• 2024: 94.1%

Here are the conversion rates for 40-49 yarders:

• 2022: 80.2%

• 2023: 79.1%

• 2024: 80%

And here are the conversion rates for 50-plus yarders:

• 2022: 68.6%

• 2023: 68.5%

• 2024: 70.8%

I think what Kevin suggests is true: the startling slumps by Justin Tucker and Younghoe Koo are getting a lot of attention, while Jake Moody’s and Evan McPherson’s woes have been much talked about because they have contributed to disappointing seasons for their teams. But lots of kickers are having excellent years, and we haven’t seen too many randos pulled off the waiver wire who were incapable of hitting an extra point.

I also think that as 50-plus yarders reach the 70% conversion rate, we expect 40-49 yarders to reach 95% or something. That league-wide 20% misfire rate on 40-49 yarders isn’t going anywhere just because kickers are making 58-yarders look routine.

If the Patriots’ Joey Slye had hit that 68-yard game winning field goal against the Colts, would that have forced you to write a column about the change in kick distances over the years? Even the thought that he tried it at all is remarkable, and he very nearly made it. What's the upper limit? 70? Longer?? – Ken Kousen

A column on changing kick distances would require intense, careful research. I would wait for Bryan Knowles to write it at FTN, then just link to it.

I am guessing the strongest-legged NFL kickers could make a 70-yarder. The conversion rate on such attempts would probably max out at around 10% in ideal conditions. The trajectory of the ball becomes a major issue at that length, as the kicker would be trying to drill it just over the fingertips of defenders.

I thought the Slye attempt was dumb. We’ve seen a game won on a Hail Mary this year. Bill Belichick didn’t think Mac Jones could reach the end zone from the Patriots’ 45-yard line in 2022, but Drake Maye certainly can, and Belichick is gone.

What the hell should the Dolphins do? They can’t beat a winning team to save their lives, they can’t win in even mild weather, and they are now stuck behind Buffalo for eternity. The fabled rebuild failed miserably. Who’s at fault and what should they do now? – Florida Manny

Mike McDaniel’s rococo offense is the Dolphins greatest strength and their biggest liability. All the shifts, motion and intricate play fakes get disrupted by crowd noise and bogged down in cold or soggy conditions. The system is so tuned to Tua Tagovailoa that Skyler Thompson, who has spent three years learning it, is incapable of running it.

McDaniel needs to simplify his offense and add some more conventional concepts: power runs without the motion gingerbread, play-action bombs to Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle that don’t involve three pre-snap shifts and Tua pirouetting in the backfield. I don’t know if the Dolphins will ever be good enough at primitive football to challenge the Bills in January, but they can at least make sure they aren’t vulnerable to the Patriots in November.

The Dolphins also need a real backup quarterback. They cannot afford to go winless every time Tagovailoa gets hurt.

The Dolphins have lots of key veterans locked up through 2026, so they cannot blow things up. I’m not sure I want them to: the Dolphins have their flaws, but they may be the most fun team in the NFL to watch when everything is clicking. I don’t like the idea of assigning “blame” for the construction of a team that looked for a while like it was going to shatter offensive records.

Ignore if this is an old question, but what 3 rules would you change if you could? My stab at it would be 1) Fumble into the end zone goes back to the offensive team at the last possession spot 2) All penalties are reviewable. The NBA reviews fouls, why can't we have a chance to reverse non and bad PI calls in high leverage situations? 3) Add an initiator penalty like the NHL has for instances like the hit on Lawrence. No way that should be offsetting. – Mark D'Agostino

No reviewing penalties, please. RefBall is out-of-hand across all the major sports. We’ve sacrificed the actual entertainment value of watching a briskly-paced sporting event for accuracy to appease bettors.

Here are my selections:

• A fumble through the sides of the end zone is a 15-yard penalty and loss of down, not a touchback. Fumbles through the back of the end zone can remain touchbacks.

• “Burping” the quarterback and all of the other ticky-tack variations on roughing the passer should be five-yard penalties, replay the down. The 15-yard roughing-the-passer should be reserved for blows to the head or flagrant hits. Too many sacks and turnovers magically turn into first downs due to roughing fouls that look like routine hits.

• The holding rules should be relaxed during scrambles so offensive linemen aren’t flagged when the defender changes direction and disengages from the type of block that every lineman has executed on every play for the last 75 years.

Where did you honeymoon and, If you had the money and resources you have now back when you got married, would you do something else? – Josh R.

Alert readers who hang on literally every word I write will note that I answered this question in a non-NFL essay at the end of the summer. My wife and I honeymooned at my father’s vacation condo in Ocean City, New Jersey. We were very, very broke.

As for the resources I have now … I lost three jobs in the last two years and am putting two kids through college! But yes, there’s a little retirement nest egg that could be partially plundered for, say, a week in Paris. But I am not sure what we would have done during a honeymoon in Paris. Well, obviously I AM sure what we would have done. But that can be done in an Ocean City condo. We may not have appreciated Paris or some other cosmopolitan city in our mid-20s.

I do sometimes regret not traveling more when we were childless, energetic and adventurous. At the same time, we racked up very little debt, which was why I could embark on my writing career in the early 2010s and am here with you now instead of in a classroom. And my memories of early marriage involve weekly walks along the lake to the local comic book shop, a stop at the tavern and/or Blockbuster Video on Saturday nights, spur-of-the-moment jaunts down the shore and summer weekdays at the community pool, in addition to much carousing and canoodling. There’s probably room among those memories for the Champs-Elysees. But I cannot miss what I never had. And we’ll get there someday.