Free-Agency Foreplay Day 1: The Patriots Way is Overspending
The Bears reinforce their offensive line (again), the Jets embark on a rebound romance, the Seahawks replace Geno with Gen2.0, and much more during Days -1 and 1 of consensual canoodling.
Any NFL team with a little cap space can improve itself in free agency. But it’s almost impossible for a bad team to make itself good. And the more early money a team spends on another team’s castoffs, the more skeptical its fans should be.
The New England Patriots are undoubtedly a better team now that they have (unofficially) added Carlton Davis, Milton Williams, Harold Landry and others to the roster. But how much have they really improved? And at what cost? And which of the players they are adding will still be on the roster by the time they are ready to throw a scare into the Buffalo Bills?
The Chicago Bears upgraded their offensive line through a series of signings and trades. But are Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson the nucleus of a playoff-caliber offensive line in 2025? And what about the free-spending Panthers? Have they rebuilt their defense or just added expensive journeymen? Can you determine the answer simply based upon how the question was posed?
Too Deep Zone is not here to rain on any parades, merely to splash a little sobering ice water on NFL fans who are giddy from free-agent foreplay. Some of Monday’s moves were shrewd, a few were dumb, and lots of them cannot really be judged until the teams in question play a few more cards. But most won’t really make much of a difference in the standings come autumn.
Here’s analysis of some of Sunday and Monday’s most notable news; anything announced after 5 PM Eastern on Monday will be covered in the Day 2 recap.
Seahawks Swap Out Geno Smith for Geno 2: Electric Darnold-Doo
Invest in slightly-above-average-at-best quarterbacking, get slightly-above-average-at-best results.
That should have been the takeaway from the Geno Smith era in Seattle. The Seahawks invested in Geno at his absolute peak after his Comeback Player of the Year season 2022. They didn’t overcommit financially, but they still got the return on their investment which they absolutely should have expected: the slow decline phase of a journeyman in his 30s. They dragged the aging Tyler Lockett and good-but-one-dimensional DK Metcalf along to ensure a high floor at the expense of a low ceiling. They entered 2024 looking like a team custom-built to almost make the playoffs, and they met expectations.
Now here is Sam Darnold, coming off what would have been a Comeback Player of the Year season if the Associated Press didn’t thought-police the balloting. Another Jets castoff, another medium-salary-range quarterback (three years at $110 million), another year or two of fish-nor-foul semi-contending/quasi-rebuilding.
Darnold needed the outstanding Vikings receiving corps to succeed in 2024, but the Seahawks released Lockett and traded Metcalf just before signing him in one of those cruel Victorian science experiments 2DZ discussed last week.
Moves like signing Smith or Darnold make more sense in the AFC or NFC South, where baseline competence often results in a division title. Darnold’s presence in the competitive NFC West essentially locks in the Seahawks’ trajectory for either second or third place, depending on how much upheaval the 49ers go through. And his salary makes it unlikely that the Seahawks have a Shedeur Sanders draft trick up their sleeves.
In summary, I’m lukewarm about this lukewarm quarterback signing with a lukewarm franchise for money that still has a little steam rising off it.
Jets Sign Justin Fields for Starter’s Money
Fields is the Jets’ Manic Pixie Dream Quarterback. He is not joining the team to lead them to the playoffs but just to help them feel alive again.