In the Hall of the (New) Mountain King

Angry Storm God Elway reigns no more. All Hail Snarky Trickster God Sean Payton, his chosen one Bo Nix, and the all-new, all-different Orange Crush!

Leftenant Beauregard Sideways, we hardly knew ye.

Bo Nix was no ordinary rookie starter at the beginning of the 2024 season. He was not just a student driver. Or Wesley Crusher piloting the Enterprise. He was a toddler in a shopping cart with a steering wheel. His rubber baby buggy bumpers were childproofed. His air yards could be measured in centimeters. Nix averaged 3.3 yards per pass attempt in one game, 2.4 in another. It looked like Sean Payton would try to get through the whole season without asking Nix to throw a football farther than he could spit one.

But Nix developed: steadily, broadly and rapidly. As the weeks wore on, he became a better scrambler, a keener out-of-structure decision maker and yes, both a willing and able downfield passer.

All the while, an unheralded defense ensured that Nix would never have to do too much to manufacture victories. By mid-November, the Denver Broncos were so solid on both sides of the ball that Nix could casually drop four touchdown passes on the Falcons, while Kirk Cousins – the type of heady veteran who is supposed to be able to pick apart upstart rebuilding teams – struggled to produce 173 yards and an interception. Two weeks later, the Broncos defense coaxed two pick-6’s from Jameis Winston while Nix and Marvin Mims connected for a 93-yard touchdown (35 of them air yards) in a 42-31 victory over the Browns to increase the team’s record to 8-5.

The 2024 Denver Broncos story is the tale of how Sean Payton used the gravity well of the Russell Wilson supernova to slingshot the franchise back to success after a decade-long playoff drought. It’s a story of redemption for defensive coordinator Vance Joseph and validation for Patrick Surtain II, Nik Bonitto and other defenders who appeared to be consigned forever to Von Milller’s long shadow. But it’s ultimately the story of Nix, the first rookie quarterback the Broncos have had real reason to be excited about since … since … I don’t want to be sacrilegious …

BEHOLD MY RIGHTFUL HEIR, WITH WHOM I AM WELL PLEASED

… since John Elway.

The question is no longer whether Nix is worthy to lead the Broncos, but if the Broncos can assemble a roster that’s worthy of Nix.

(This is “Down the Stretch,” an occasional Too Deep Zone feature which examines a team heading into the playoffs. Can you guess who we are covering today?)

The Denver Broncos Story So Far

Life happens so fast in the NFL that it is easy to forget that the Broncos are eating $53 million in dead Russell Wilson money as we speak. Wilson was still on the Broncos roster nine months ago, when Payton made twinkle-eyed Freudian slips about the “next” Broncos quarterback at his Combine press conference. The Broncos are supposed to be undergoing severe credit repair to go with their culture change and rookie lumps this year, just as Wilson is supposed to be pouting on the Steelers bench as penance for his flighty arrogance. (But that’s a story for another time.)

After dumping Wilson in a roadside culvert and speeding away, Payton developed a crush on the vaguely Drew Brees-scented Nix, drafted him, made an elaborate game of three-card monte out of a Nix/Jarrett Stidham/Zach Wilson quarterback competition because he loves treating the media like rubes at a bus terminal, then named Nix the opening day starter as he always planned to do unless the kid threw up all over his jersey.

The Broncos started 0-2, with their defense playing well but Nix playing summer-camp egg toss. Then they beat the Buccaneers on a sweltering day in Tampa and the Jets on a soggy day in Jersey. Nix slowly discovered the vast territory beyond the line of scrimmage, the defense tightened further, and the Broncos began beating all but the top heavyweights on their schedule. They entered their bye on a three-game winning streak.

Among their notable-if-odd accomplishments in 2024: the Broncos swept the NFC South. Payton, the longtime Saints head coach, is a petty man who relishes revenge. Which leads us to our next segment.

Leadership Structure

Sean Payton represents the best-case scenario for a big-name coaching retread. He projects the cheerful arrogance of a man who still loves the coaching grind but loves treating the media with barely-concealed contempt even more. Payton was hired to untangle the Russell Wilson Gordian Knot, and he bit through it as only someone who has transcended traditional accountability could.

Payton has committed many retread-coaching sins in Denver. His staff is full of cronies. His roster is sprinkled with former Saints. Jokers like me keep waiting for him to import Taysom Hill, and it could still happen next year. But there’s still lots of method to Payton’s madness. Those cronies know how to coach. And Payton is taking his effort to sculpt another Brees as seriously as your retired neighbor takes restoring his 1966 Mustang convertible.

Payton appeared to be trolling both Broncos ownership and fans when he hired Vance Joseph as his defensive coordinator. Joseph coached the Broncos to an 11-21 record in 2017-18, and he was fresh off an unremarkable stint with a Cardinals staff that imploded in 2022. Joseph is a crafty schemer, however, and defensive players run through minefields for him. When you consider Payton’s list of interviewees entering 2023 – Matt Patricia, Sean Desai, Rex Ryan – the unconventional choice of the deposed Joseph was both brilliant and (again) a move only someone who has ownership wrapped around his pinkie and doesn’t give two f**ks what the public thinks could make.

General manager George Paton engineered the Wilson trade to rescue the Broncos from seven years of pedestrian veteran quarterbacking, only to discover that he had only burrowed the franchise even deeper into the briar patch. Having traded all his draft picks and spent all of Greg Penner’s money, Paton found himself with nothing else to do. Payton superseded him as the franchise’s showrunner, and Paton now mostly scours the waiver wire to find affordable Saints castoffs for his liege.

Penner is a Walmart-in-Law who appears just smart enough to stay out of sight and let a big football brain/personality make all the Broncos decisions. Condoleezza Rice is on Penner’s ownership team and is whispered to have attempted some early coups. If Payton strays too far out of line, she will send Harley Quinn and Captain Boomerang to take him down.

Quarterback Situation

The cool draftniks were skeptical of Nix, and with good reason. His gaudy Oregon stats were inflated by (you guessed it) tons of micro-passing. An early-career rise and fall at Auburn left Nix both older than the ideal prospect and more famous than successful. Nix was the tall white dude with sparkly stats who was always on television: you don’t get your Internet Draft Genius certification by stanning for the likes of him.

I broke down Nix’s stats and his tape before the draft and found a prospect who was roughly on the same tier as Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. But I only had about 36 subscribers then.

At the end of Week 13, Nix led the NFL in deep (15-plus air yard) pass attempts with 97, per Sports Info Solutions. He ranked 25th with 11.0 yards per attempt on such passes, but: a) that was still better than Williams, Maye, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray, among others; and b) includes his first four games, when he was 9-of-28 with three interceptions on deep passes.

Nix remains a work in progress. But he appears to add a new club to his bag each week. He now makes accurate off-platform throws. He can climb the pocket when pressured and deliver the ball downfield. And he has not abandoned the dump-and-shrug game that gives the Broncos defense a chance to play with good field position. Remember: Brees built a Hall of Fame career by carefully rationing out his air inches.

What Is Going Right

We’ve covered Nix’s development pretty thoroughly thus far. Meanwhile, the Broncos defense:

• Has recorded 206 pass pressures, the highest total in the NFL. Zach Allen has recorded 50 pressures, Jonathon Cooper 41, Nik Bonitto 40. No other team has three defenders with 40-plus pressures.

• Has recorded 83 stuffs for no gain or a loss on running plays, third in the NFL.

• Has allowed just 16 touchdowns on 37 red zone trips. That 43.2% conversion rate is fourth-lowest in the NFL.

• Has allowed just 6.7 yards per pass attempt, the eighth-best figure in the NFL.

Furthermore …

• The Broncos have enjoyed a significant starting field position differential: their drives start on the 32.5 yard line (second-best in the NFL), while opponents’ drives start on the 27.5-yard line (second-worst for the offense). Defense-oriented teams need this kind of field position tilt to maintain success.

• Contributing to that field position tilt: Marvin Mims averages 13.5 yards per punt return, while Riley Dixon has dropped 27 punts inside the 20-yard line.

Trouble Spots

• Nix is over-reliant on Courtland Sutton as his lone downfield target, though rookie Devaughn Vele is starting to emerge as a reliable counterpunch. The running backs still do very little with their (frequent) targets, and too many targets go to the likes of Lil’Jordan Humphrey (a Saints import), Adam Trautman (another one), and Lukas Krull (from a planet ravaged by Slayers, where only the subject of the prophecy can wield the glaive).

• The Broncos go three-and-out on 30% of their offensive possessions, tied with the Chargers for the NFL’s worst figure. That’s a sign that their offense can still get stuck in first gear, particularly against Ravens-Chiefs-caliber competition.

• The Broncos defense ranks 29th at stopping opponents’ #1 wide receivers, per DVOA. Joseph does his best to give Patrick Surtain shutdown duties, but opponents do all they can to move their top receivers around in search of more vulnerable (though not terrible) defenders Ja’Quan McMillian and Riley Moss.

Future Schedule

The Broncos face the 13th-hardest future schedule in the NFL, per DVOA. They host the Colts this week, then visit the Chargers and Bengals before hosting the Chiefs in the season finale. The Colts game is quietly important, as the Broncos can knock off one of the teams (along with the Dolphins and, theoretically, the Bengals) clinging to the bottom of the Wild Card pack.

Real Playoff Outlook

DVOA Playoff Probability: The Broncos have an 81.9% chance of reaching the playoffs, which would translate to a -450 moneyline. They have a 12.5% chance (+700) of reaching the conference championship. They cannot win the AFC West,

Moneylines: The Broncos are -250 to reach the playoffs. Based on the DVOA analysis, there’s meat on that bone.

The Broncos are +100 to lose in the Wild Card round, +500 to lose in the divisional round and +1500 to lose in the AFC Championship Game. The steep slope of those moneylines illustrates that the Broncos don’t appear to be a match for the conference powerhouses, though again: DVOA endorses the championship-game wager if you like the Broncos and longshots.

The Broncos’ best chance at winning a playoff game comes from drawing the Texans as their first-round opponent. That will probably require the top Wild Card seed, which the Broncos would have to wrest from the Ravens or Chargers (both of whom have beaten them). If they end up with the seventh seed, they will probably travel to Buffalo in the first round. And that will be the end of that.

Beyond 2024

The Broncos will still be eating $32 million Russ Bucks in 2025. But they have over $63 million in paper cap space for next year. Left tackle Garrett Bolles, who is having an excellent season, is the top in-house free agent. The Broncos can afford to keep the 33-year old Bolles, but Payton will whistle his own tune.

The Broncos possess most of their own 2025 draft picks, give-or-take some Day Three selections.

Bottom Line

No team has helped itself more in the 2024 season than the Denver Broncos.

Contenders like the Bills or Lions can only do so much for themselves in the regular season, of course: their goals must be met in late January. Rebuilding teams are another matter. And the Broncos have accomplished a ton in what looked like it would be a lost season. They buried the bad Wilson acid trip in the past. They nurtured Nix. They rebuilt their defensive identity. They dug themselves most of the way out of a cap space/draft capital chasm. They validated both Payton as a benevolent despot and Joseph as his majordomo.

Yeah, the Commanders accomplished a lot this season as well. Let’s see what they look like when some of the Zach Ertz/Bobby Wagner/Austin Ekeler gingerbread flakes off the roster next year. Anyway, this is not a competition, and if you want to end this Broncos feature dreaming of a Broncos-Commanders Super Bowl after the 2026 season, have fun with it! The point is that the Broncos have direction and momentum, two things they have not possessed since the day Payton Manning retired.

The moral of this story is probably not to chase big-name retread coaches. For every Payton, there are roughly a half-dozen burned-out self-promotors in the batch. Instead, the moral is that it’s OK to push the plunger on a bad quarterback marriage, swallow some cap space and pride, and zealously embrace rebuilding. A quick turnaround is possible. We’ll see another example of one later in the week, in another edition of Down The Stretch.

Are you listening, Jets? Are you listening, Falcons?

Coming Thursday or Friday: Down the Stretch examines the Green Bay Packers.