Nattering Nabobs of Negadelphia (Mailbag Part 2)
The defending-champion Eagles are 3-0, and their fans are TICKED OFF. Also: Ravens, Seahawks, Caleb, Kickoffs, Edge Rushers and more in an overstuffed Mailbag!
Welcome to Part 2 of the Week 4 NFL Mailbag. Part 1 is here. There will be a Part 3. You folks ask a lot of questions.
This segment features lots of Eagles hand-wringing. But let’s cover some other teams first for the infotainment of those of you who do not bleed Kelly green.
Are the Ravens the greatest 1 - 2 team on NFL history? Asking as a Bills fan. — Adam Smith
The Ravens currently rank 12th in DVOA, without opponent adjustments. They rank 22nd in defense. Even a boost for facing the Bills and Lions would not lift them into historic territory.
Aaron Schatz weighs in via email:
It turns out that the Ravens aren’t even close to the top 1-2 team. Not even in the top 25. They are the top 1-2 team of this year, though the Chiefs are right behind them.
The best 1-2 team was the 2007 Eagles at 36.5% followed by... LAST YEAR’S Ravens who were at 32.8% DVOA at 1-2.
I still think they are Super Bowl contenders who will win the AFC North. So does the DVOA projection model.
The Ravens defense appears to just suck overall. But lets just say it genuinely was because Kyle Van Noy and Nnamdi Madubuike were out... when would you (if at all) be willing to mortgage the future to "save" a current year. e.g. we find out Madubuike will be out all year and KVN out 10 weeks, would it be worth trading some serious capital for a Dexter Lawrence type person? — Mike Schobazaford
I am old enough to remember the Ravens defense standing toe-to-toe with the Bills offense for three-and-a-half quarters like, 20 days ago. But yes: this does not look like a Super Bowl-worthy defense. And the Ravens are being weird about the Madubuike injury, which is not a good sign.
The Ravens should absolutely seek all-in type moves. This suddenly looks like Derrick Henry’s last year; he is devolving into Rhamondre Stevenson. DeAndre Hopkins was a win-now addition. Mark Andrews’ contract expires this year. A soft reboot is likely coming. There’s no reason to just let the window close.
The Ravens need to reach their bye at 3-3. Then their schedule softens. But if they lose to the Chiefs on Sunday, their playoff tiebreaker portfolio will be in shambles.
Will the Packers grow big and strong from their humble pie, or get a tummy ache? – Lenny
They are going to beat the Cowboys by two hundred thousand gazillion points on Sunday night.
The Lions and Packers are probably neck-and-neck teams this year. That’s about what we should have expected after the Micah Parsons trade. Lots of folks, myself included, overreacted to both the Week 1 Packers victory and the general sense that the Lions are just sitting on their hands.
Who's the best team in the NFC West and why is it the Seahawks? – Kelly Mamer
The Seahawks currently rank first in DVOA! The DVOA system does not yet include opponent adjustments, however, so it does not know that the Saints are just a waiver wire wearing matching helmets.
The Seahawks defense is impressive. Their special teams certainly put on a show in Week 3. And their passing game … exists.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, are a theoretically good team so long as you don’t actually watch their games or ask who they have faced. The 49ers are St. Elsewhere. But there was no question that the Rams were the best team in the NFC West until about 3:30 PM Eastern Time last Sunday, and I think they still are.
Would you rather have: Sam Darnold or Brock Purdy? Is it as close as I think it might be? – Sheepnado
Darnold would be hiding under his bed if he faced the injury situation Purdy has dealt with for the past two seasons.
Folks seem to be box-score scouting Darnold a bit after Week 3: the Saints kept handing him the ball in scoring position on special teams miscues, and the Seahawks led 17-0 before fans could finish their first beer.
But yes, it is a little closer than anyone would like to admit now, or would have thought in August of 2024. The difference between the 12th and 30th best quarterback in the NFL is not as great as we like to pretend it is, and those rankings themselves are just illusory moving targets.
The Colts are currently on pace to pay Rigoberto Sanchez $440k per punt this season. Do you think this is sound cap management? — Todd Singer
Sanchez is the most reliable placekick holder in the NFL. Show some respect.
How optimistic should Bears fans be after this win over the Cowboys? – Mitch
You shouldn’t be pessimistic. The Caleb Williams situation has so many layers, and quarterback development is such a delicate and longitudinal procedure in even the best of circumstances, that I would keep the hyperventilation bag handy.
From your perspective, has Caleb Williams restored his ceiling with his play the last two weeks? Obviously too small a sample for most likely outcomes, but is it enough to say the best outcomes hoped for on draft night are back in play? – Jlittig
I am more worried about Williams’ floor than his ceiling. He demonstrated against the Cowboys that he can stand in the pocket and orchestrate Ben Johnson’s offense against a weak defense. That’s the skillset that keeps you in the lineup. Let’s see him do it again against the Raiders and reach the bye with some career breathing room. The next step after that will be staying in the pocket and throwing accurate passes into tighter windows against tougher opponents.
Williams is sure to come up a few times in Mailbag Part 3 tomorrow.
How come my Bucs keep winning although our line is made up of leftovers? – Ori Lauterbach
Reasons no one talks about the Buccaneers:
Small fanbase.
Baker Mayfield morphed from a scrap-heap bust into a franchise-caliber quarterback so gradually that the early-adopters and tastemakers were never able to gush over him.
Todd Bowles went on a similar journey to Mayfield: from “Jets Failure #8798” to “Tough-Guy Coordinator" to “Coach Whose Offensive Assistants Keep Getting Poached Before Most Fans Even Learn Their Names,” with no stops in between to become the NFL’s cool new mastermind or personality.
The Bucs have not had an off year since Tom Brady arrived, and therefore never achieved trendy “sleeper” status.
Re-signing in-house free agents doesn’t make offseason headlines or give Jason Licht any cool-kid cred. Better to grab a million randos like the Patriots.
The NFC South is a midmajor conference. True enough, but winning a midmajor conference every year should count for something.
The Bucs are a better team than the Cardinals. But all I hear about from my fellow writers is Cardinals-Cardinals-Cardinals, even though they could barely beat the Panthers and Saints and lost to a bunch of guys on crutches.
Am I wrong for feeling like the AFC West race is already over? Even the Chargers can't blow this. right? – Ken Raining
Yes, they can. Those are the Chiefs in their rearview mirror.
I do find it interesting that the Chargers and Broncos Freaky Friday’ed this season. The Broncos are the ones inventing creative ways to lose close games.
Who is Sean Payton's game management specialist? Exquisite results so far this season. — Ron K.
He needs to fire the guy who keeps telling Broncos players to commit penalties!
Denver lost to Indy by gifting them a dumb (if seldom called) penalty on the last play of the game. They upped the difficulty level against the Chargers by gifting them even more dumb penalties. Oh, and in both games, the offense could have made those things moot had they simply been able to finish off some drives with TDs. So what is Sean Payton having them work on in practice? – Tom C.
I am worried that Payton has been replaced by the butterfly aliens from Peacemaker. The real Payton would have spent the last two weeks whining about the leverage rule and vowing to use his power on the competition committee to repeal it. The Broncos should be playing the rest of this season under protest!
The Broncos are currently 31st in the NFL in intended air yards per completion and 19th in YAC per completion, per Pro Football Reference. So Bo Nix throws short, then his receivers do little after the catch. I feel like most of that YAC came on one or two plays.
Payton likes the short game, and he cannot yell his playmakers into being stronger and faster. So he is probably trying to fine-tune the timing on passes and the downfield blocking on plays designed to get the ball in space to the backs and Marvin Mims/Tory Franklin types.
Hey Mike, is it time to admit that Mike Tomlin is Jeff Fisher reborn? Or was that time actually 5 years ago? – Andy
Subscriber Gordon chimes in here:
I almost feel like he's the weird mirror universe inverse of Jeff Fisher. Fisher held talented teams down to .500, while Tomlin has taken teams to .500 that with a lesser coach would absolutely crater. I know that begs the question of why he doesn't work with the scouting department to get better players to lift them up (and why they didn't try harder to find a replacement for Big Ben when it was clear he was fading), but still I think it needs to be said.
I agree with most of that. Tomlin and his coaches work well with the personnel department to get precisely the types of players the Steelers like, particularly on the defensive front. His biggest weakness right now, besides the fact that finding a new quarterback is hard, is his taste in coordinators.
Also, it’s important to remember that a regime can run its course after 19 years. There’s a difference between believing that the Steelers need fresh leadership and believing that Tomlin is a stumblebum.
Eagles Time!
Can I hope that the Eagles will take the right lesson ("We can score whenever we try") instead of the wrong one ("We can score whenever we want, so let's not try until we have to")? – Tracer Bullet
The Eagles are now 51-20 in the regular season and 6-3 in the playoffs under Nick Sirianni. Eagles fans need to stop doomscrolling and make a scrapbook of photos from the Super Bowl parade instead. (And yes, this is a physician, heal thyself remark.)
Why in the world haven't the Eagles unlocked (or tried to unlock) Hurts more? The comeback on Sunday felt like some shackles came off. Am I missing something here? – Steve Garvin