Ranking the NFL GM's, Sorta

The first-ever Too Deep Mailbag has arrived! Find GM rankings, my "Commish for a Day" agenda, Eagles and Vikings hand-wringing, and much more!

In this first-ever Too Deep Mailbag, we tackle the tough questions, including:

• Why NFL teams stink at evaluating rookie quarterbacks;

• What Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore might mean for Nick Sirianni;

• Whether Drake Maye – or any rookie quarterback – would benefit from a redshirt year;

• Peer pressure in draft analysis? I dunno; my buddies told me I shouldn’t answer this one;

• Whether it’s a good idea to play Civilization VI while loaded;

And much more!

Which GM do you think is doing the best job, which is doing the worst, and how are they different? – Kevin Langstaff

The Ravens, led by Eric DeCosta, have the best all-around front office in the NFL.

Howie Roseman (Eagles) is the NFL’s best trader and resource manager. He and his staff are so-so drafters.

Brandon Beane (Bills) is a strong roster manager: solid at drafting and very good at contract extensions/player retention, give or take the occasional passive-aggressive wide receiver.

Nick Caserio (Texans) has been the league’s best Dumpster diver for affordable veterans since his Patriots days.

John Lynch (49ers) is like a “three true outcomes” baseball slugger. He either hits grand slams, strikes out, or walks into the bargaining room and overpays a (typically outstanding) player. His batting average isn’t flashy, but his OPS makes him an All Star.

Brett Veach (Chiefs) doesn’t get much credit because he answers to Andy Reid, and because we pretend that Patrick Mahomes doesn’t need a supporting cast. Veach is a rock-solid drafter, especially on defense, and he is a clever cap manager.

Brian Gutekunst (Packers) is beginning to look like a canny long-range planner.

Les Snead excels at finding late-round draft picks who have 1-2 useful skills, allowing him to fill the bottom of the Rams roster with solid role players, as well as the occasional Puka Nacua. Snead, of course, is also unafraid of the massive blockbuster.

Brad Holmes (Lions) has an eye for talent and appears to be handling the transition from rebuilding to contention well.

Now, some more critical comments.

Mickey Loomis (Saints) may be the NFL’s worst general manager, mostly because of his love for revolving-debt cap shenanigans. Loomis is a clever problem solver but a much more clever problem causer.

Trent Baalke (Jaguars) is like Lynch with roid rage. He has moments of clarity, even brilliance. But he randomly overspends and underspends, and he never appears to be on the same page as his coaches.

Chris Ballard (Colts) reminds me of General George McClellan from the Civil War, who was afraid to ever launch an offensive against the Confederates, even when he had superior numbers and resources. I do like his player-retention capabilities.

Stephen Jones and his staff (Cowboys) would actually be pretty solid if they didn’t have to run their final decisions through Big Daddy, who has become a self-caricature.

Finally, some general comments. 

I want to see how Kwesi Adofo-Mensah (Vikings) handles the draft before making any major declarations; he has done a fine job of roster deconstruction and cap repair so far. Jason Licht (Buccaneers) and John Schneider (Seahawks) are sharp and sensible; Schneider has grown out of his mid-2010s bad-boy genius phase. I don’t know how much credit Duke Tobin (Bengals) really deserves for drafting Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. The Steelers front office is like some ancient Council of Druids. 

Andrew Berry (Browns) would look much better if the Deshaun Watson trade did not happen on his watch, though I doubt that trade was his decision. Joe Douglas (Jets) drafts sensibly and is adept at finding low-cost solutions, but he’s trying to solve quadratic functions in the middle of a circus.

Truly overmatched general managers like Ryan Pace/Mike Mayock don’t last very long, and I am reluctant to criticize or praise newcomers too soon.

If you were made NFL Commissioner/Grand Poobah for a day, what changes would you implement? – Horsemeat Pie

My agenda:

1. Eliminate the “fumble touchback.” A fumble out of bounds in the end zone results in a 15-yard penalty and a loss of down, not a turnover.

2. Exile anyone who disagrees with the fumble touchback decision to Amund Ringes Island in the Arctic Circle.

3. Separate roughing-the-passer into Type 1 (5 yards, replay down) and Type 2 (15 yards, first down) penalties. All of the “burping the quarterback” stuff becomes Type 1 roughing. I believe that referees will officiate games more satisfyingly if they have a “soft” foul they can call in borderline cases.

4. No football on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day unless those days fall on the weekend.

5. Bring back the second bye week and use it to eliminate short-rest weeks before Thursday night or international games. The two-bye schedule was hated in its sole year of existence (1993), but that was before widespread fantasy popularity, legal gambling, widespread Internet usage and other factors that make it much easier for fans to enjoy out-of-town games.

6. Non-quarterbacks can only have a single-digit uniform number after they have been voted to a Pro Bowl.

I would probably also use the NFL’s awesome power and reach to do some broadly pro-social stuff, but all of my former friends would just sniff at my efforts and blame me for not solving all of society’s problems via football.

Why is it so difficult to predict whether or not even a top QB prospect will succeed in the NFL? – Seth Lobis

We received a few related questions, including: 

I would reframe Seth’s question. Are teams doing enough to put their young quarterbacks in a position to succeed? Would Patrick Mahomes still be regarded the same way if he had gone to the Saints in their perpetual cap hell like Sean Payton wanted? – Daniel Winslow

QB evaluation seems to boil down to two philosophies -- one is the QB is what he is, scouting is just imperfect, so Josh Rosen was always going to bust. The other is that coaching, development, and surrounding pieces are all-important. An example is Colin Cowherd's pronouncement that any QB the Vikings take will be good, any the Patriots take will be a bust, just because of the environment. I assume you fall between those extremes, but do you lean one way or another? – Scott de Brestian

There’s a lot here, enough to fill a book or a longitudinal research project. There’s also just tons and tons of fuzzy/magical thinking around the quarterback position out there, as Cowherd’s comments illustrate. 

Let’s take football out of the equation for a moment to determine if we can reframe the question.

Imagine a Fortune 500 company with 32 regional branches, all of which are locked in a Darwinian struggle to be the most profitable branch. Underperforming CEOs get the Glengarry Glen Ross treatment at the end of each year. Headquarters then dips into the college ranks for replacement CEOs, where they find dozens of qualified applicants for a handful of wide-open positions. 

Three-to-five young hotshots – magna cum laude MBA graduates with glowing internships who were also Greek Council presidents – are given the reins to the worst branches, the ones which were recently restructured and/or have a depleted, demoralized workforce. Perhaps a dozen others are hired into the bean-counter department, where they have a slim chance of working their way up through the ranks. Occasionally, one newcomer earns an “heir apparent” opportunity behind some Cornelius Vanderbilt-type, though such captains of industry remain in power for so long that the heir might end up withering in obscurity. 

The rookie CEOs sometimes get a brief grace period or some mentorship. By their second year on the job, however, they must start producing bottom-line results. Otherwise, the branch might splurge to lure a veteran CEO from another branch or dip back into the collegiate pool. If a bean counter or a creaky former CEO steps in during a crisis and outperforms the rookie, it could spell the end of his executive career: it’s really hard to come back from a demotion to bean counter.

Under those circumstances it would be weird if many of the top CEO candidates did not end up victims of circumstance, crack under the pressure or discover that earning an A-plus in macroeconomics and earning actual money require two different skill sets. These young execs don’t have to “fail” to fail; they can do so by not succeeding enough, quickly enough. 

Every top five pick is expected to quickly become a top ten quarterback, but that math simply does not work out. The 25th-best quarterback in the NFL is objectively very good at his job – compare Daniel Jones or Gardner Minshew to, say, a UFL quarterback – yet he’s also in danger of being replaced. If the replacement also maxes out as the 25th-best person on earth at his profession, he will suffer the same fate.

Seen from that perspective, the NFL does a pretty good job of identifying quarterbacks! Utter stumblebums rarely take the field. Come-from-nowhere success stories like Tom Brady, Kurt Warner and now Brock Purdy are also rather rare. But the competition is brutal, the stakes perilous, the variables numerous and complicated, the gestation periods brief, and the price of failure – for the franchises and the prospects – absolutely staggering.

The next two questions are somewhat related:

After seeing how Trevor Lawrence has performed through his first three years, is it safe to say there’s no such thing as a “can’t miss QB”? – MT

Golly, I think we are setting the bar rather high. Lawrence was outstanding in 2022 and played very well in the first half of 2023. I think most observers still think of him as a franchise starter with upside. The traits which made him the first-overall pick are still very evident, and the most glaring weaknesses (stop fumbling, Trevor) can still be mitigated.

I consider Lawrence and Andrew Luck the only “can’t miss” prospects of my career. Neither landed in an ideal situation, which brings us back to some of what I wrote in the last segment.

A lot of analysts seem to think that Drake Maye could turn into a solid NFL starter if he gets to redshirt a year or two but has a high chance to bust if forced to start in 2024. The latter seems a particularly likely outcome if he goes to the Patriots, even though Brissett could be a decent bridge for what looks to be a horrible 2024 roster. Any chance that a top 5 draft pick is allowed to sit in today’s NFL (especially for a team like NE, where the owner seems very anxious to have someone to sell jerseys)? –Steve Munger

I don’t think Robert Kraft is hurting for jersey-sale dough.

To flip the question around: why would a team draft a quarterback in the top five if they thought he needed to sit on the bench for a full year? If he is inexperienced but has Cam Newton traits, like Anthony Richardson, shouldn’t he have immediate success in a zone-read heavy offense and learn on the job? (Yes, Richardson got hurt, but that’s a separate conversation.) If he’s not that gifted and not that ready … why is he a top five pick?

Folks who mythologize the quarterback redshirt year are harkening back to days that never were. Terry Bradshaw, Jim Plunkett and Steve Bartkowski, the three quarterbacks drafted first overall in the 1970s, all played extensively as rookies. Archie Manning and Dan Pastorini, selected second and third after Plunkett in the famous 1971 draft, also played extensively as rookies. The fallacy that rookies were “seasoned” on the bench for a year or two is built around a very small sample of high-profile exceptions like Roger Staubach, Steve Young and now Patrick Mahomes.

Speaking of Mahomes, does anyone think his career would look ANY different if he took over for Alex Smith in, say, Week 8 of the 2017 season? His development was not turbocharged by waiting but by the circumstances that made it possible for him to wait: great coach, strong organization, and so on.

I like the idea of pairing a rookie with a mentor. It’s no catastrophe if the mentor starts on opening day. But quarterbacks only learn so much while taking backup’s reps, being passive participants in weekly meetings and not getting up to literal NFL game speed. 

Getting back to Maye, I think the “redshirt” angle is the result of a lot of draft analysts expressing vague reservations about him. Maye is inaccurate. I’m not sure that gets fixed on the bench. He can also be a bit shaky under pressure. I’m sure that does not get fixed on the bench. 

Do you interpret the hirings of Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio in Philadelphia as the reasoned execution of a holistic plan, or something more like the desperate assembly of a Frankenstein's monster? – Jake

Jake’s question above is the same as mine - do Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore save Nick’s job by turning it around? – Tom Elmer

Fangio is an upgrade over Sean Desai. My dog would be an update over Matt Patricia. A defensive lieutenant with gravitas should help Nick Sirianni keep the locker room from turning into The Purge again.

Kellen Moore is an enigma. His greatest skill seems to be landing in situations where everything good can be credited to him while nothing bad can be blamed on him. That would frighten me if I were Sirianni. 

Moore’s motion-heavy offense is so different from Sirianni’s motion-averse offense that it does look like a Frankenstein situation. I am among the few who thought the Eagles offense needed tweaking, not scrapping. On the flip side, the Eagles likely needed some change-for-change’s-sake: a great way to shake up stale play-calling and on-field decision-making habits is to make everyone learn something completely different.

I’m not sure what “turning it around” means for the Eagles. If they go 11-6 and lose the the 49ers in the second round of the playoffs, will they have “turned it around?” Howie Roseman might say yes. The folks at 94-WIP would probably say no. Who knows what Jeffrey Lurie would say?

I am fascinated with the Vikings this cycle. I would be interested in your probabilistic breakdown of what they do with their two first round picks. — Tom Burton

• Draft a QB at 11 and an edge or defensive tackle at 23: 60%

• Use the 11th and 23rd picks to trade up for a QB: 25%

• Trade up from 11 for a QB using assets other than the 23rd pick: 15%

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is an analytics guy. He does not want to trade up if he can avoid it. If Drake Maye slips out of the top three, he may be tempted by the tools. If he has intel that the Giants are selecting a quarterback or the Raiders are doing something splashy, he will be forced to act. But the Broncos are in no position to leapfrog over the Vikings for a quarterback (they lack a second-round pick and have needs everywhere). The Vikings could probably trade all the way up to the third pick if they have to; Adofo-Mensah may be content to know that the other GMs know this.

I’m also about as sick of the Vikings as a 10th century monk on the English coast at this point.

Kevin Stefanski has won Coach of the Year twice in four years. Is he really that good, or are they giving him awards to compensate him for the pain of working for the Browns? – Richard Woollams

Stefanski coached the Browns to their best season of the century – the best season in the current iteration of the franchise’s existence – in 2020. He did an outstanding job juggling four starting quarterbacks (five, counting meaningless Week 18) last year; you don’t see many teams in history reaching the playoffs under such circumstances. He’s doing an objectively great job.

I have made peace with the Coach of the Year award not meaning “Best Coach of the Year” but something more like “Man of the Moment.” We all know Andy Reid is the best coach in the NFL right now and that others do a better year-in/year-out job than the annual winner. Coach of the Year is about the story of the NFL, and voters instinctively treat it that way.

It’s like People’s Sexiest Man Alive. It should always be Channing Tatum, but they’re gonna give it to Ryan Gosling, Anthony Fauci or Ken Jennings now and then to illustrate some relevant point. 

The Texans are looking like a competent organization now. How high up do you think the credit goes? Head coach? GM? Ownership? – Thomas Czarples

I mentioned Nick Cesario earlier. He’s a very sturdy general manager. It’s hard not to be impressed by DeMeco Ryans and his staff right now.

As for ownership, you may have noticed that Hannah McNair is taking a more vocal, visible role in the organization. Officially, Cal McNair’s wife is the vice president of the Houston Texans Foundation, with no formal role in football operations. Unofficially … you have never heard Eugenia Jones give a Cowboys take, have you?

Hannah McNair is probably a more competent NFL behind-the-scenes decision maker than Jack Easterby was.

Your Ultimate Quarterback Stat Pack offers tangible evidence for how Jayden Daniels stacks up against 2024 QB prospects, especially Caleb Williams. Many have made similar observations, yet the Williams bandwagon seems impervious. Williams absolutely has uber talent, but do you think his lock on opinions of his lofty position is impacted by some sort of peer pressure in the draft community -- and maybe the NFL -- which makes him untouchable? – Frank Cooney

There is definitely peer pressure in the draft-media world. That’s partially a good thing. I know what goes into the scouting reports at NFL.com, NFL Draft Scout and elsewhere. It’s only logical for me – or anyone else who isn’t just screaming for attention – to temper our opinions if we go too far against the grain. 

At the same time, hive-mind analysis is both inaccurate and boring. That’s why I try to pepper my draft analysis with stats, player quotes, biographical highlights or little jokes: if I end up going with the flow, I want to at least add some protein to the conversation. 

As for Williams and Daniels, I offered tangible evidence that Daniels outperformed Williams in many statistical categories in 2023. Williams had an outstanding 2022 season and rose to national prominence in 2021; Daniels was just a scrambly guy for two programs in four years entering last year. I simply cannot go against conventional wisdom based on their full bodies of work. That’s not peer pressure, simply caution and respect for what I don’t know.

Who are some of this year's prospects that seem like sure things to outperform their draft slot? i.e. for whom do you feel the consensus perception is most "wrong"? – Alex

I’m a big fan of Utah safety Cole Bishop: he’s fast, physical and active. He looks like the ideal “heavy slot” defender because he is fast enough to cover most wide receivers but can also take on blocks and stop the run. Most purported all-purpose defenders lack his pure speed, his instincts near the line of scrimmage, or both. 

I also like South Carolina slot receiver Xavier Legette. I think I can tell a Real Deebo from a Fake Deebo, and Legette is close to the real deal as a big target who can catch a shallow cross and burst into fifth gear. Legette has gotten lost in the shuffle of this year’s receiver class; I would hate to pass on an Amon-Ra St. Brown-type because I was chasing a blazing forty. (And Legette ran a 4.39-second forty. At 221 pounds.)

Colorado State edge rusher Mohamed Kamara reminds me of Boye Mafe, who has become a feisty edge rusher for the Seahawks. He’s quick, strong and absolutely relentless. Nifty pass-rush moves can be taught; athleticism and aggression can not.

I don’t think I have an “everybody is wrong” guy this year, as I have tuned out a lot of draft chatter because of reduced coverage responsibilities. 

What do you believe is the most common error teams make in the draft? IMO it is drafting for "need" rather than selecting who they believe is the best player available, but I could well be wrong. – Michael Gee

Overconfidence is the most common error teams make in the draft. It usually expresses itself in the form of trading up. 

The biggest draft error of the last decade was probably the 49ers’ decision to trade-up to select Trey Lance. The Panthers’ trade-up to select Bryce Young may soon be seen as even worse. 

The Lance trade was an extreme instance of overconfidence, with John Lynch trading multiple first-round picks for an FCS quarterback who had been idle for an entire year due to COVID. There is simply no way the 49ers had enough information on Lance to justify such a risk.

In the case of Young, the Panthers traded current AND future assets for a player with very tangible, ahem, shortcomings. The Panthers cannot have had enough information about Young’s intangibles to trade the farm for a quarterback built like a JV point guard, because information that certain and precise is impossible to acquire.

Some of my analytics-oriented colleagues veer too far in the other direction and gnash their teeth every time a team trades up. Sometimes, the cost of a trade up is small, especially if a dozen Moneyball teams are trying to trade down, and teams deserve some benefit of the doubt when jockeying around the board. But whiffing after trading up is more like grounding into a double play than striking out. 

Drafting for need IS a big problem, but not a common one. Most teams lump prospects into tiers – this receiver, that edge rusher and yonder cornerback are all of equal value – and only draft for need within that tier. Going back to overconfidence, draft analysts are the ones who may not respect our own ignorance when we start asserting that, say, Malik Nabors is better than Joe Alt.

On a scale of "you couldn't pay me enough to attend" to "bucket-list - I will make it happen in my lifetime", where would you fall on attending the draft as an ordinary fan? – Michael Strawn

Back when it was at Radio City Music Hall, the draft was an incredibly dumb fan event. Not only did the Internet always glitch out, but nearby bars often closed about an hour after the final pick! That part of midtown Manhattan, catering to traditional, unadventurous tourists, shuts down earlier than my suburban neighborhood.

Having seen/covered the modern touring draft first-hand in Philly, I still find it rather ridiculous, but in fine weather it can serve as a kooky Spring Football Festival. I wouldn’t travel further than a commuter train ride to attend it, but I wouldn’t leave town to get away from it, either.

Imagine a world with no franchise tag. Do you think the superstars would still stay with their teams or would we be seeing more players changing teams because of money? – Misho2712

Salaries would increase, at least for top-tier players, without a franchise tag. But the carrot dangling in front of young players seeking extensions – a chance to replace the fourth year of a rookie contract with a massive signing bonus – is much bigger than the stick of a franchise-tagging two years down the line.

Take Micah Parsons. He’s scheduled to make around $3 million this year, the fourth year of his rookie contract. Brian Burns just received a contract with a $35-million bonus and $76.5 million guaranteed. The greatest enticement Parsons has to sign an extension is the opportunity to immediately earn ten times his current salary as one lump sum.

The Cowboys hold the threat of tagging Parsons in 2026 and 2027, but that threat is double-edged: any contract extension will have his franchise-tag compensation for those years baked into it. The best time for a team to offer meaningful new money AND a player to get meaningful new money is entering year four of the rookie contract.

I also have a “Paint the Nursery” theory of NFL contract extensions. The best time to get a player to decide to stay with his current team is right after his life partner gets the nursery painted for a new baby: she is NOT gonna be happy about moving at that moment. Offer a player an order-of-magnitude of new money plus the chance to not have to call a realtor, and guess what? He’s probably sticking around. 

Any tips to keep Civilization VI feeling fresh, one year post-Leader Pass drops?

Also: while I'm on board with the business side of it, as a Giants fan it will still be hard seeing Saquon Barkley in a green jersey this season. As a football fan, what free agency jump did YOU have the hardest time coming to terms with? – Austin Trunick

If cannabis is legal in your municipality, try playing Civ VI stoned. It’s incredibly challenging when you can’t remember what you decided to do three turns ago. Go with the gummies: take one when you load the game and you will be communing with the Oracle of Delphi right when Trajan shows up at your doorstep with a dozen legions.

Seriously, I am finally Civ VI’d out. That game kept me sane through the pandemic and calm during last year’s employment/personal crises.

Reggie White was the hardest free agent jump I ever dealt with. The first is always the worst! White was the soul of the Eagles. He was active in South Jersey communities. (His theology at the time was bananapants, but that doesn’t matter when you are running soup kitchens.) Norman Braman was an awful owner who despised the very concept of free agency. When White left, Eagles fans knew Braman would rather dismantle the team than negotiate with a player who had real leverage.

Where is Tom Brady most likely to be playing in 2024, and with what results for (a) himself (b) that city (c) the Presidency (d) humanity in general? — Martin Driver

Brady does not really want to play anymore. My guess is that he also doesn’t want to be a broadcaster, either.

A Brady-Aaron Rodgers presidential ticket would get non-zero electoral votes. Fortunately, neither would agree to be the vice president.

Humanity will be better off when we accept Brady as an old jock and not some magical demigod like King Freakin’ Arthur.

What is your favorite childhood memory (assuming you have one (a favorite memory, that is, not a childhood (although, come to think of it, assuming you weren’t tragically robbed of a childhood)))? – Josh R

I will never forget emerging from the birth canal into the harsh light of the delivery room and thinking, “Yeah … I got this.”

Seriously, I did indeed have a childhood, back in the days of free-range parenting, neighborhoods teeming with children and a playground culture of pickup games, bike adventures, baseball cards, flashlight tag on summer nights and fumble-rumble in the snow on winter afternoons.

To pick one specific memory, my pals and I would often play Wiffle ball on a summer afternoon, then bike a few blocks to 7-Eleven for Big Gulps (I always despised Slurpees) and video games. 

When we reached our early teens, our favorite arcade game was Gauntlet, which supported four-player cooperative play. The best gamer of our group was Wizard, tasked with making proper use of potions. The weakest gamer was Warrior, who could tank hits. My most opportunistic pal was Elf; he used his speed to snatch all the treasure and sometimes help the rest of us. I was Valkyrie, the balanced support character. We NEVER switched characters. Lots of lawn money was converted into quarters and eaten by that Gauntlet machine. Two or three hard-earned bucks each later, we’d retreat to the elf’s house to listen to the Phillies on the screen porch or, if his older sister was not colonizing it, the wizard’s pool.

Gauntlet evenings were followed fast by summer jobs, girls, high school parties and the more bittersweet elements of real adolescence. Maybe that’s why I remember them so fondly.

I put the mailbox here so I can use it in the social posts.