Rattler, Hartman, Milton & More: Rummaging for Day Three QBs
Rattler, Hartman, Milton & More: Rummaging for Day Three QBs
Don't try to tell one undersized sixth-year transfer with an NIL deal from another without this Too Deep Zone program.
Jordan Travis nearly quit football after he was benched at Florida State. Spencer Rattler was supposed to be as great as Caleb Williams at Oklahoma. Michael Pratt once outdueled Williams in a bowl game. Sam Hartman broke records at Wake Forest — and hearts when he left for Notre Dame. Joe Milton may throw harder than any quarterback in this class. Ben Bryant spent more time in the transfer portal than Chief O’Brien spent in the transporter room.
Any of these C-tier quarterback prospects, all of whom have an NFL-caliber attribute or three, could be a Brock Purdy hiding in plain sight. Studying these prospects carefully also brings the scouting reports of Williams, Jayden Daniels and the other big names into sharp relief: watching someone destined to be drafted in the sixth or seventh round provides a fresh appreciation of Michael Penix or J.J. McCarthy.
Finally, the ups and downs of quarterbacks like Rattler and Travis help tell the story of what has unofficially become minor league football over the last few years: transfers, second chances, six-year odysseys, quests for NIL bucks and more.
Let’s get familiar with some quarterbacks you are likely to meet at the end of the 2024 draft. If one of them is playing in overtime of the Super Bowl in two years, remember that you read about him here first.
Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State
Travis’ college career began at Louisville way back in 2018. He transferred to Florida State to escape the collapse of Bobby Petrino’s program, but he suffered a confidence crisis under Willie Taggert and his staff. By the time Mike Norvell arrived to take over the Seminoles program, Travis was having a hard time throwing spirals in practice.
Travis got booed and benched in the 2021 season opener against Notre Dame. He nearly quit football, but he returned to the lineup and renewed his confidence after McKenzie Milton got injured a few weeks later. Travis and Florida State remained on an upward trajectory for two years until Travis suffered a severe left ankle fracture last November; the undefeated Seminoles were denied an FBS playoff berth as a result of the injury.
Inspirational comeback stories don’t make outstanding scouting reports. Travis turns 24 in May. He expects to be healthy by training camp but will not be able to do much in the spring. A quarterback who overcame a severe confidence crisis might be preferable to one who enjoyed nothing but success (and may lack coping strategies as a result), but NFL front offices will be taking deep dives into the events of 2020-21 to determine if Travis can handle what lies ahead.
Travis runs fairly well and puts NFL mustard on intermediate throws. He can find his secondary target in a clean pocket and can complete passes downfield when scrambling. The Seminoles rolled him out a lot, and Travis can deliver touch passes or fire fastballs on the move.
That said, Travis has two significant negative traits to worry about. The first limits his ceiling; the second lowers his floor.
Travis’ deep accuracy is very spotty. He completed just 32.9% of his passes of 15-plus air yards in 2023, ranking 96th among FBS quarterbacks with 50-plus such passes. (Source: Sports Info Solutions.) By contrast, Jayden Daniels led the nation at 67.1% on such passes. Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy were all above 50%, and Michael Penix completed 48.0% of such passes. Travis’ on-target rate of 48.2% ranked 69th in the nation.
Keep in mind that Travis was throwing to Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson, Jaheim Bell and Trey Benson, all of whom will likely be drafted in early-to-middle rounds. Travis sprays deeper passes out of bounds or forces his receivers to make difficult adjustments.
Travis is also a backpedaler under pressure who throws desperation balls into traffic. He holds the ball too long and makes dangerous throws deep in his own territory, which is often a sign of poor game-management instincts.
I studied Travis hoping to see a Hendon Hooker-type of late bloomer: someone to be drafted on day two and brought along slowly while he rehabs an injury. Travis lacks Hooker’s size, arm strength or running ability, however, and it’s hard to gauge an older prospect’s upside without a size-speed-arm package to fall back upon.
Travis is worth a day three selection based on his B-tier traits and the possibility that he is still growing as a decision maker and leader after his early-career setbacks. At the very least, he might have a future as an unshakeable, ever-ready backup who has already seen the worst that a football career can throw at him.
Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina
Rattler’s college career played out like a gritty Netflix drama about college football in the early 2020s. In fact, he is one of several quarterbacks on this list to have been featured in one.
Rattler threw 28 touchdowns for Oklahoma as a redshirt freshman in 2020, earning some Heisman watchlist buzz despite the fact that he was benched briefly during that year’s Red River Showdown. Along came Caleb Williams in 2021, who seized the starting job (and Heisman notice) when Rattler was benched yet again against Texas in 2022.
Rattler transferred to South Carolina, where he played poorly before a late-2022 rally highlighted by a six-touchdown performance in a romp against Tennessee. That game got him back on the NFL’s radar (or at least the draft media’s radar). His 2023 season, however, was a mixed bag at best, with huge performances against Furman and weak Florida/Mississippi State programs but tiny ones against Clemson and Tennessee. Rattler drew good-not-great Senior Bowl practice reviews but earned the actual game’s MVP award by completing four passes on four attempts.
Let’s see: a high-profile transfer, a brush with Caleb Williams, stardom in the COVID year, a few benchings, a comeback at his new program and some semi-misleading pre-draft accolades. All that’s missing from our Netflix plot outline is an NIL angle. Fortunately, Rattler got a Mercedes from a South Carolina dealership in 2023, so that’s also covered.
A few statistics should sum up Rattler’s scouting profile more effectively than hundreds of words of draft-speak:
Rattler was sacked 42 times in 2023, the sixth-highest total in the FBS. His pressure rate was high (37.6%), and his line was bad, but the sack total is still an issue.
In part because of those sacks, Rattler averaged 3.2 adjusted net yards per attempt on the 181 dropbacks on which he was pressured. Here is how that compares to the top prospects in this class:
Bo Nix: 9.7 ANY/A when pressured
Jayden Daniels: 7.5
J.J. McCarthy: 6.6
Michael Penix: 5.5
Drake Maye: 5.1
Caleb Williams: 3.5
Spencer Rattler: 3.2
Finally, Rattler attempted 120 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, more than any other major prospect except Bo Nix. Micro-passes represented over 30% of his attempts. The South Carolina offense is full of slot screens that are actually more like lateral pitches, including this one which was recovered as a fumble for a touchdown by Clemson’s Khalil Barnes:
Rattler is also just 6’0”, weighed 211 pounds and ran a 4.95-second forty at the combine. He’s not a size-speed marvel.
So we are dealing with a quarterback who is easy to bring down when escaping the pocket and gets antsy under pressure when he’s not flinging bubble screens. Rattler also often starts running at the end of his drop and does Wentzy stuff (two jump-pass attempts against Clemson) when he should just eat the ball. He’s got some positive attributes, including a willingness to take a licking to deliver a throw, but too much of his recent success came on YAC plays or jump balls to Xavier Legette.
Rattler sets off Christian Hackenberg sirens as a freshman superstar who developed backwards. He would make a fine UFL quarterback due to his fame and peskiness. I thought I saw a viable mid-round pick watching him from the couch on Saturdays over the last two seasons. Watching him more carefully from my desk, I don’t see a draftable quarterback.
Joe Milton III, QB, Tennessee
Milton stole the Combine, clocking a 62 mph throw on the radar gun and sending a few deep passes 70-plus yards downfield in events that nearly all of the top-tier prospects skipped.
Milton’s arm strength is legitimate. He can flick the ball 40 yards with little effort and push it deep when throwing on the run. He has some touch as well, and he can take a little off of his fastball when he needs to. What’s most impressive (and useful) about Milton’s arm is that he can complete sideline comeback, curl and out-routes routinely, allowing him to stretch the field horizontally as well as vertically.
Milton is a Cam Newton-sized fellow with a burly running style. He’s not in Newton or Josh Allen’s class with the ball in his hands, but he will be an occasional zone-read threat and short-yardage option who can keep some drives alive by scrambling.
Now for the bad news. Milton’s college career began at Michigan in 2018. He backed up Shea Patterson for two years, then lost his starting job in 2020 to Cade McNamara. He transferred to Tennessee, got injured in 2021 and was shunted behind Hendon Hooker. Again, we’re talking about a 6’5” dude with a flamethrower arm: he should not have kept landing on the bench.
Milton waits forever for his first read to get open, something he could get away with in Josh Heupel’s offense, where the first read often gets wide open. His second read is often a scramble or a forced throw to that first read.
Milton overthrows too many receivers. He often double-clutches instead of checking down when he does not like what he sees. His placement on receiver screens is spotty, probably because he does not need to reset his feet to deliver a fastball.
Drawbacks aside, Milton makes more sense as an early Day Three draft selection than the other quarterbacks on this list do because BIG FAST THROW HARD. He could be developed into the early-career version of Joe Flacco: someone who forces the safeties to play deep, makes the cornerbacks respect throws along the sidelines and can drop enough completions (and scrambles) into wide-open space underneath to be a viable starter.
At worst, a team that drafts Milton gets a scout team quarterback who can simulate the velocity and length of a Josh Allen throw.
Sam Hartman, QB, Notre Dame
Hartman had the best hair, by far, of any quarterback at the NFL combine. He also had an immaculate beard, which is surprisingly relevant.
Hartman holds every Wake Forest passing record of relevance, some by a wide margin. He’s the ACC’s all-time passing touchdown leader. He played five seasons for the Demon Deacons, starting the last three and throwing 77 touchdown passes in the final two.
With nothing else to accomplish at Wake Forest, it was time for Hartman to make some money after the 2022 season. No, not in the NFL, silly. At Notre Dame, where Hartman signed a high six-figure NIL deal with Dollar Shave Club.
Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson literally reacted like a jilted lover when Notre Dame honored Hartman during a November matchup with the Deacons. “You only dated him for a couple of months,” Clawson said. “It can’t be love. We’re the ones that love him. We had five years with him. You rented him for a season. They bought him and rented him for a year, and now they love him.”
OK, gross. The only thing worse than college coaches acting like feudal barons while griping about NIL is college coaches acting like possessive ex-boyfriends while griping about NIL. Anyway, Hartman started his 2023 season red hot, stumbled with bad games against Clemson, Louisville and Pitt, but rebounded to throw four touchdown passes to beat the Deacons.