Ravens Defense EXPOSED; Teams Stuck in Neutral (Mailbag Pt. 2)

Mailbag answers LOTS of Ravens, Chargers, Seahawks, Buccaneers and Commanders questions, plus Jason Voorhees and Justin Herbert.

Happy Halloween! This is Part 2 of an overstuffed autumn Mailbag! Part 1, dealing mostly with the NFL’s weakest teams, ran yesterday. Today we are discussing non-embarrassing-to-awesome teams. Tomorrow: team building, DVOA, the Hall of Fame and esoterica. Thanks for asking so many outstanding questions!

Michael Myers, Freddy Krueger, Jason Voorhees: who is the best NFL prospect? – Austin Trunick

Freddy only exists in dreams, so he’s out. Though maybe he can whisper to opposing coaches at night. Establish the run. Stats are for losers. That kid who broke your windshield trying to throw an out-route is the next Josh Allen.

Based on my research, Jason is far stronger than Michael Myers. Myers also only kills on Halloween, making him useless as an NFL prospect. Jason is only active in the region around Crystal Lake, but I could theoretically build a stadium atop or adjacent to Crystal Lake and have Jason as my killing machine for eight home games, plus the playoffs. 

Can I just have Frankenstein’s monster? He’s huge, powerful, aggro and (by Bride of Frankenstein) can form bonds with those who are kind to him and obey simple commands. The dude is the ultimate three-tech defensive tackle.  

What is wrong with the Ravens defense? Can you cc Zach Orr in your response, please?

The Ravens rank 18th in defensive DVOA. They rank 25th in pass defense. Let’s focus our attention there.

Kyle Hamilton’s dropped fourth-quarter interception against the Browns was the Ravens’ 9th drop of the year, per Sports Info Solutions. That’s the highest figure in the NFL this year. Eddie Jackson was charged with two dropped interceptions in Week 8, meaning Jameis threw three interceptable passes but had zero interceptions; Browns fans should keep this in mind. One of Jackson’s drops occurred in the end zone before the first Browns field goal. 

If Ravens defenders managed to catch 44% of the would-be interceptions they dropped, the Ravens would be 6-2 and fans would be less worried about their defense. 

The Ravens defense ranks 30th in DVOA against other team’s #1 receivers. Those #1 receivers have included Rashee Rice, Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Terry McLaurin, and Mike Evans for a half, plus Khalil Shakir (catching from Josh Allen) and Jerry Jeudy. Not many easy matchups in that group.

Orr lines up his cornerbacks by sides, and Brandon Stephens often gets matched up against top receivers when they are on his side of the field. Maybe Orr should move Marlon Humphrey around a bit or roll coverage toward the opponent’s top threat more often. 

This is not defense-specific, but the Ravens are suffering from a league-high -188 yard net penalty differential. They’ve been flagged for roughing the passer four times, a penalty which often turns a sack into a first down. A facemask penalty on Nnamdi Madubuike negated a sack and spurred the Raiders comeback (which was also aided by a pass interference penalty) in Week 2.

The Ravens have given up 852 passing yards and 10 touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Both figures lead the NFL by significant margins; no other team has given up more than six fourth-quarter touchdowns. Opponents are sometimes hopelessly behind in the fourth quarter against the Ravens. But the Ravens defense has still allowed five touchdowns and 10.7 yards per attempt in the fourth quarter when the opponent was within eight points. 

Now here’s the kicker: opponents have scored three passing touchdowns in the fourth quarters of close games against the Ravens when Orr has rushed five or six defenders. The Raiders completed three late-game passes for 38 yards and one touchdown against the blitz. The Bengals scored one 70-yard catch-and-run touchdown on a quick toss to Ja’Marr Chase against a blitz. And Winston was 4-of-4 for 58 yards against the fourth-quarter blitz. Orr rushed five on Cedrick Tillman’s game-winning touchdown, plus a sixth defender who was “covering” the running back, leaving Eddie Jackson isolated on the receiver while lined up as a deep safety. 

In summary, the Ravens must stop dropping interceptions and may want to revisit the “cornerbacks by sides” philosophy. And Orr REALLY should blitz less when the Ravens are protecting a lead. Fans may love the aggressive play calls, but they are not working.

The Broncos new cornerback duo is playing really well and badly needs a nickname. On the broadcast the announcers talked about Lethal Weapon or Pulp Fiction as option. But I think Surtain and Moss deserve something more historical. What do you think it should be? – Andrew Coyner

Pulp Fiction would be a good “orange” callback, but “fiction” makes it sound like the Broncos defense are frauds. 

How about … Orange Crush? No one complains when the Steelers use “Steel Curtain” over and over again. The Broncos should be allowed to trademark the fact that they produce outstanding defenses every decade or so. 

Also, the whole defense is playing well. Why single out Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss?

The pass rush seems to be coming around, but the Eagles are getting nothing from the secondary WRs. What WR will Howie Roseman waste a midround pick on at the deadline? - Tracer Bullet

Jahan Dotson. Howie will trade him back to the Commanders, then trade back for him, and somehow end up with a higher pick. And Dotson still won’t do anything.

(I love the fact that questions about the 5-2 Eagles, reaping the fruits of offseason acquisitions like Saquon Barkley and an impressive draft class, take the form of LET’S TAKE A POTSHOT AT HOWIE ROSEMAN.)

And now a trio of silly/serious/spooky questions from Tom Burton.

Silly: There was a lot of talk about Al Michaels’ eating habits on TNF. What's one thing that is forbidden from making it on your plate?

I do not eat any seafood besides canned tuna and fish & chips, neither of which count.

I am sure I have done this gag before, but it’s hard for NFL reporters to have dinner together on the road, because roughly one-third of them are like, “Oh, let’s go to this restaurant that serves tempura-battered pelican anus!,” one-third still cut the crust off their PB&J’s like toddlers, and those of us in the middle third are always called upon to pick where we are going. Every menu on Yelp must be carefully scanned to make sure it includes both Authentic Adventurous Cuisine from the Developing World and Nachos with Cheese and Meat but NOTHING Else Because Diced Tomatoes are Yucky.

Also, after about four beers I am a threat to start eating tablecloths.

Serious: which one of the offseason playoff favorites who's not currently in pole position is the most likely to recover?

The 49ers. Much as I like to roast them, they are loaded with talent, have great schemes and know the path back to the Super Bowl.

Spooky: Assuming Maye survives this season intact, what are the odds NE doesn't end up fixing their offensive line in one offseason and he's just broken in 2025?

Don’t wish that on Maye and the Patriots! I want Maye to remain healthy so Patriots fans can discover just how frustrating, tortuous and unpredictable quarterback development really is, even if Matt Patricia isn’t around to blame!

Is the window closed/closing for this group of 49ers? Purdy is about to get paid too much for his skill level. Trent, George, Juice, Bosa, Deebo are all on the backside of their careers and wanting big $$. CMC and Aiyuk with injury concerns. – Matt Nielsen

I think the 49ers are still very much alive this year. After that, it’s not so much a matter of wanting big bucks as already being owed them. George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and even aging Trent Williams are all on the cap ledger through 2026, with void years after that. All of them are either at the edge of their peaks or at the start of their always-a-little-injured declines. The money that might be used to add reinforcements is earmarked for Brock Purdy. 

I think some of the “bad vibes” surrounding the 49ers in the first half of the season came from the fact that every loss felt like a death knell of an era.

How does the NFL counter the Mahomes (not only him, but he's the master) "I'm going out of bounds so you can't hit me HAHAHA fooled you I'm staying in for 8 more yards" scrambles? Any defensive back is going to be unwilling to launch themselves like they would versus a RB or WR, lest Patrick takes a step out while they are in the air and then it’s a 15-yard penalty. It's frustrating to watch (unless you're a KC fan of course, then it's brilliant), but it's got to be really infuriating for defensive players and coaches alike. - Adam

Defenders could, like, give him a little nudge? That might work. If defenders are thinking they will get a flag just for nudging him, opponents might as well just forfeit. 

Does Cincinnati ever run a play that's not out of shotgun? I don't have time to watch every game they play, but it seems like their offense is extremely predictable and I don't remember Burrow ever being under center. Almost every actual good offense carries the threat of a real running attack, starting with the quarterback under center. – David

The Bengals have rushed 73 times with their quarterback under center this year, gaining 208 yards. Five teams have lower under-center carry totals: the Colts (41 in seven games), Commanders (52), Browns (65) and Eagles (65 in seven games). Incidentally, if you think that a team in shotgun lacks a “real running attack,” you have not watched the 2021-24 Eagles.

Bengals quarterbacks (Joe Burrow) have attempted just 21 passes from under center, the fourth-lowest total behind the Commanders, Colts and Eagles. It’s noteworthy that all of the “mostly shotgun” teams below the Bengals have dual-threat quarterbacks. 

I have thought for years that Zac Taylor’s scheme was nothing special. I also think the Bengals’ biggest problems this year are that they cannot rush the passer or tackle.

Should Packers’ fans be worried about Jordan Love’s INT rate — or is it a standard sophomore slump? – AG

Worry about the injuries! 

It’s easier to get a young quarterback who is aggressive and generates lots of big plays to cut down on his interceptions than it is for a young “game-manager” to open things up and produce big plays. That’s because coaches are often schematically protecting the young game manager while giving the gunslinger more leeway to take risks. 

Love’s interception rate needs to drop from 4.5% to around 3.0% by season’s end, and he can never do that thing he did in the endzone against the Rams again. But Love does so much right that there’s no reason to be too concerned about the things he does wrong.  

Obviously Russell Wilson is never going to be what he was at his prime again. But given that 1) his coach in his first year in Denver was one of the biggest numbnuts in the known universe and 2) in the second year was a good coach who clearly wanted to move on with someone else, is it unrealistic to think that under Tomlin he could least go back to being the late-Seattle version of himself (which would be a substantial upgrade over what the Steelers have gotten since Roethlisberger got old)? – Scott Lemieux

That appears to be the direction we are headed toward. Also, don’t discount the possibility that Wilson realized he had become a famebrain and was humbled, Rocky III-style, by the Broncos experience, rededicating himself to the basics this offseason.

Wilson is on a one-year contract. The question the Steelers now face is how much they are willing to invest in a 36-year old’s decline phase based on a handful of pretty good games. 

Hey Mike, I know how you feel about the Seahawks, and you’re not wrong. Sadly, that’s my team so I’d love to get your take on what’s wrong and their prospects for the next couple of seasons. Are they cursed to be a middling team - not bad enough for high draft picks but not good enough to make any noise in the playoffs? – Kevin Langstaff

You described the “middling” Seahawks perfectly. They should have used the windfall from the Russell Wilson trade to stage an epic rebuild. Instead, they dug themselves a deep Wild Card foxhole.

Most alarmingly, the Seahawks are facing a salary cap deficit in 2025! That’s mere accounting right now, but the easiest way for them to create a cap surplus will be to restructure the Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Leonard Williams contracts. And that’s how a team becomes the Saints, twisting themselves in financial knots to go .500 for a decade.

I’d love to see the Seahawks execute a daring trade (Metcalf) or a cold-hearted cut of a good player (Williams or Lockett) in the offseason in the name of aggressive rebuilding, rather than extending things through 2027 in the name of keeping a classic rock cover band together. 

They also need to find a quarterback whose performance ceiling is not “Wow, that was a swell comeback two years ago.” 

RE: The Bucs not trading for a WR with Evans & Godwin down. My read is that a) they don't really believe they've got a Super Bowl team this year & retaining future assets like cap space & draft picks is better than going "all in" this year; and b) if they really like the young guys they have, this is an opportunity for them to learn from mistakes & develop so that next year (when Godwin is likely gone), the team is in a better position for a run. Interested in your thoughts. – J r

There is no one on the trading block who could replicate Chris Godwin’s impact, especially now that Diontae Johnson was traded to the Ravens. (Evans is expected back this season.) I don’t think the Rams will trade Cooper Kupp, and I would also question why they would be so eager to move him if I were Jason Licht answering the telephone. The Buccaneers might just end up trading for some other team’s version of Sterling Shepard.

The Bucs are still rebuilding on the fly in the aftermath of the Tom Brady era. That’s fine: the NFC South offers easy playoff appearances for so-so teams, and Bucs fans have been able to enjoy Evans, Godwin and Lavonte David instead of seeing them traded away for scrap. But it makes no sense now for the Bucs to take on age and salary, and surrender draft picks, in the name of squeaking into the postseason for a third straight year. 

What has Jim Harbaugh done to make the Chargers defense so much better? And if you don’t accept the premise, why am I wrong? – Martin Driver

The Chargers currently rank 8th in defensive DVOA, up from 26th last year. I take last year’s numbers with a little salt, because the Chargers offense became non-competitive after the Justin Herbert injury, and defensive metrics tend to sag when the offense is constantly putting the defense in terrible situations. The Chargers offense may not be all that scintillating right now, but it can control the clock and flip field position, which helps the defense.

The Chargers have faced the following quarterbacks this season, in order: Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler. The Chargers defense played well against Mahomes but hasn’t faced many other challenges. Young and Rattler are two of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks, and they represent 31% of the passes thrown against the Chargers this year. DVOA is not quite granular enough to account for that.

Harbaugh deserves credit for holding onto Khalil Mack, who is still playing at an All Pro level. Some of the budget free agents are playing well. But I think we are seeing an average defense playing nitty-gritty football against opponents with (mostly) mediocre offenses. 

Didn't we all openly mock the Commanders offseason -- the think-tank of endless GMs, the grab-bag of random free agents, the most uninspiring coaching search ever, Dan Quinn, RFK Stadium, the Sean Taylor Statue, Kliff Kingsbury? Even if Jayden Daniels is THAT good, how do you rationally explain the 6-2 Commanders being THAT good? – Chillzilla

I did NOT openly mock the Commanders’ offseason! Here is part of my conclusion from the Football Outsiders Almanac team chapter:

The best thing about the Commanders’ offseason was the sheer scope of it. “Rebuilding” is often NFL-speak for “futzing around,” with new administrations taking their dear sweet time to make changes because accountability from ownership is still a year or two away. Peters and Quinn crammed about two offseasons’ worth of changes into one. Besides Daniels, rookies will be called upon to fill more complementary roles: third-round pick Luke McCaffrey in the slot, perhaps second-round pick Mike Sainristil at nickel. None of the veterans arrive with unrealistic expectations. There will be healthy competition all over the roster. The Commanders will be a team on the rise in 2025 if about two-thirds of their offseason plans come to fruition. 

As for rationally explaining how the 6-2 Commanders are that good: they won one game on the Hail Noah and another because the Giants kicker got hurt on Friday but they did not activate their backup for Sunday. They have beaten the Panthers and the Deshaun-addled Browns. The best opponent they have beaten under non-miraculous circumstances may be the Cardinals. I love Daniels and like what the Commanders are doing, but there’s not a ton of mystery here!

With Anthony Richardson under center, which offensive formation should be used as the base for the Colts, and why is it the wishbone? – Todd Singer

The Colts should just run the Tim Tebow offense. Which, come to think of it, they may be doing.

I am editing this hours after Richardson was officially benched. I get the impression that Richardson will emerge seven years and two teams from now as an All Pro: part Chiefs Alex Smith, part Eagles Michael Vick. Everyone will be shocked and ask, “How did this happen?” And I will be screaming: “He had his sophomore/junior college seasons in the NFL! No wonder he stunk!” 

The Colts must have known there was a possibility that he would still be unbelievably raw by this point in his career, yet they now appear to be making things up as they go along. I’m reminded of what older sportswriters often say: “NFL coaches think they are geniuses when they are glorified gym teachers.”

You have written about Justin Herbert and the "Herbert Hive", that segment of football media that have placed him on the "Elite" pedestal. What are your thoughts about Geno Smith and the "Smith Stans"? The Venn diagram of the Hive and the Stans is a near perfect circle. One member of both the Hive and the Stans has called Geno a "top 5 QB" and he also has stated that Herbert should be a "top 5" contender for MVP this year. I don't have access to advanced stats but my eyes tell me that Geno is somewhere between QB12 and QB16. Thoughts? – FinsUp72

Your eyes are correct. Geno Smith is the fourth-best quarterback in the NFC West. 

I have come to think of the bright young filmtasters of YouTube as movie or music critics, not NFL analysts. They are keen observers with very refined tastes who produce interesting content. If they tell you that a David Lynch movie is brilliant or a Marvel movie is dreck, there would probably be some merit to their opinions.

NFL fans, however, want to know things like “Who will win on Sunday?” or “Who can score lots of touchdowns for my fantasy team?” In other words, we care about box office, which is all that matters in the NFL, not artistic merit for its own sake. If someone cannot wait to watch Geno Smith on pause-and-rewind every Tuesday morning, good for them! Us mere Philistines prefer touchdowns and victories on Sunday afternoon. 

The All-22 cinephiles are not even very good at identifying the Next Big Thing. If they were able to identify the next Spielberg by watching Duel, it would be impressive. But the Herbert thing has been going on for three years, and I don’t think Geno Smith has changed much since 2022, either. The big breakthrough is always a year away, when the supporting cast improves and a better coach arrives, or it already happened and we were too busy looking at the team’s .500 record and the player’s 14th-place finish in DYAR to notice.

I have made peace with the fact that I just don’t appreciate quarterback play on as many levels as these All-22 aficionados. Thank you for indulging my ignorance and appreciating me for who I am.