Self-Indulgent Prattle about Justin Herbert and Brock Purdy, Part XXXVIII
They're fine. They really are.
When discussing Justin Herbert, it’s best to start with the facts. They keep us tethered so we don’t flutter away to Cloud Cuckooland like a toddler’s balloon.
Herbert ranks ninth in the NFL in DYAR through 10 weeks. The quarterbacks ahead of him:
Lamar Jackson
Baker Mayfield
Joe Burrow
Kyler Murray
Jayden Daniels
Kirk Cousins
Brock Purdy
Josh Allen
Noteworthy quarterbacks behind Herbert in DYAR include Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford (who could have passed Herbert on Monday night but had a poor game), Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff, who slipped behind Herbert with his five-interception effort on Sunday night. The numbers above are for passing only, but rushing value does not really change anything.
Herbert ranks fifth in the NFL in DVOA behind Jackson, Daniels, Burrow, Mayfield and Purdy. He ranks sixth if you classify Russell Wilson (85 attempts) as a starter. Herbert has not thrown as many passes as Burrow, Cousins or Purdy, and DYAR is an accumulative stat, which is why he ranks behind them in one metric but ahead of them in another.
Herbert ranks seventh in the NFL in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, sixth in efficiency rating and 11th in QBR. He ranks fourth in PFF’s passing grades, though those are just glorified crowdsourcing. He is 12th on the MVP wagering board with a +3500 moneyline, but that is just less-glorified crowdsourcing.
Herbert battled an ankle injury early in the year. The Chargers receiver corps is substandard at best. Their schedule has been mushy, which DYAR and DVOA account for but the other metrics do not. The Chargers running game and defense have been strong, which helps Herbert’s efficiency (and DVOA) by keeping him out of must-throw situations. Herbert has thrown just 46 fourth-quarter passes this year, fewer than many quarterbacks with limited starts (Will Levis, Joe Flacco, Drake Maye AND Jacoby Brissett, Bryce Young). Sitting on leads in the fourth quarter against the Titans and Browns is bad for the raw stats but great for the percentage stats.
If we start offering Herbert situational waivers or making line-item vetoes to his metrics based on extenuating circumstances, we will have to do the same for everyone. And heaven knows there is enough subjectivity involved in quarterback evaluations generally and Herbert evaluation specifically. I am comfortable agreeing with the statistical consensus that Herbert is having the fifth-to-11th best season in the NFL among quarterbacks. It is familiar territory for him.