Tampering Monday: Kirk Cousins and the Factory of Blandness

A recap of NFL pre-agency Monday featuring Cousins, Saquon Barkley, Russell Wilson and other usual suspects.

Imagine the awful emotional burden of being an Atlanta Falcons fan.

Rooting for the Jets comes with some measure of anti-establishment chic. Browns fandom is like being an aficionado of schlock horror films: you learn to love the shoddiness. But the Falcons are never cool enough to be counterculture. They refuse to be so bad they are good, instead opting to be so bland that even .500-ish seasons feel terrible.

By signing the one and only Kirk Cousins for four years at a cool $100 million guaranteed, the Falcons just doomed themselves to being the world’s first late-2010s Minnesota Vikings tribute band.

Oh sure, the Falcons are theoretically loaded at the skill positions, stout along the offensive line and have a fairly talented defense. Go examine the 2019 Vikings roster. It was better than the Falcons roster will be this year. Cousins was 31 years old and healthy back then. Those Vikings wobbled to a 10-6 finish and reached the second round of the playoffs: the high-water mark of the Cousins Experience, unless you count the probability-bending 2022 season.

The Falcons could reach the second round of the playoffs with Cousins in 2024, because the 49ers scout team could win the NFC South and the conference’s Wild Card teams often reach the playoffs ready for the farm upstate. But Cousins caps the Falcons’ ceiling at 11 wins (if everything goes perfectly) and a playoff drubbing at the hands of a true contender, not as a team on the rise, but as one in a holding pattern.

Falcons fans, bless their hope-starved hearts, seem pumped for the Cousins Experience. This is, after all, a fanbase that allowed itself to get talked into Desmond Ridder as a franchise quarterback after a late-season cameo in 2022. Believing Ridder was the answer based on his epic 2022 Week 18 victory over Buccaneers backups was like watching a double-A middle reliever post a 3.50 ERA during a September call-up and thinking, “Yep, this kid’s winning 20 games next year.” Arthur Smith sold Falcons fans on a “positionless offense” in 2023 then delivered a system that mistook Madden money plays for reality.

More recently, the Falcons were frontrunners to assume the Justin Fields reclamation project; they may, in fact, have been the only runners.

Cousins’ bland professionalism looks like excellence compared to what the Falcons have been through, and a shot at double-digit wins is indeed preferable to ending up like the Bears and wondering each week if adding even more zone-reads to the offense will help.

What’s depressing about the Cousins signing, in conjunction with the Buccaneers’ decision to re-up Baker Mayfield and the Saints’ annual revolving-debt tango, is how unambitious the NFC South franchises have become. Four years ago, the Bucs signed Tom Brady after a 7-9 season in order to fast-track a championship, and it worked. Now, the Falcons can justify paying for Cousins’ decline years because he’s still better than Mayfield, Derek Carr and Lil’ Bryce, and no one seems all that worried about how low the bar has been set.

The NFC South operates like an FCS conference. The Falcons, still operating as if they were traumatized by Super Bowl LI, now aspire to be North Dakota State.

Eleven wins and a Sun Belt Conference title can be a fine season, but it makes a terrible goal because of how depressing such a season can look when a team falls even a little bit short. Pencil the Falcons in as NFC South frontrunners if you like; just remember that no quarterback of the 21st century is more famous for delivering mild disappointment than Kirk Freakin’ Cousins.

Monday Tampering Roundup

None of these transactions are official until Wednesday. “Presstime” was 6:00 PM Eastern on Monday. I may circle back and discuss some less-publicized transactions later in the week.

Philadelphia Eagles overpay for Saquon Barkley

Could someone please check on Howie Roseman? A $26-million guarantee for a high-mileage, perpetually-banged-up running back? When the Eagles have spent many years getting strong production from interchangeable running backs thanks to their outstanding offensive line? Did someone replace Howie’s breath mints with sativa lozenges?

Yes, Jason Kelce is gone. But Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata are still in Philly, and the Eagles extended guard Landon Dickerson early on Monday. The Eagles offensive line will remain in the league’s top quartile in 2024. That means that Barkley will have a great statistical season in the semi-likely event that he stays healthy.

To justify the money the Eagles are paying him, however, Barkley will need to have a near-Christian McCaffrey impact on the team’s offense: something close to 2,000 scrimmage yards, with a robust role in the passing game. Barkley has not been McCaffrey’s peer since they were rookies in 2018.

At least Barkley won’t be a figure of singular fascination in Philly. Many Iggles fans are Penn State fans, so they are ready to embrace Saquon, but he won’t be the only star on the roster and the sole traffic driver for every team-related website/podcast like he was in New York. We will be spared the six-week When Will Saquon Return to Save Us narrative when he pulls a hamstring.

Instead, Iggles fans will shout “run the damn ball” every time Jalen Hurts throws an incomplete pass, starting with the first play from scrimmage in Week 1. So I have that to look forward to.

Las Vegas Raiders sign DT Christian Wilkins

The best approach to free agency is to avoid free agency as much as possible.

The second-best approach to free agency is to target a young blue-chip player at a high-leverage position who can be part of a team’s nucleus for many years. That’s what the Raiders did by signing Wilkins for a reported four-year, $110-million deal with $84 million guaranteed.

Wilkins and Maxx Crosby have the potential to give the Raiders the kind of pass rush and defensive front that can atone for lots of other sins: a half-dozen sacks and some run stuffs can drag even the toughest opponents down to the Raiders’ level.

The Wilkins signing is also a “take us seriously” move by the Raiders. Folks inside and outside the organization needed reassurance that the franchise didn’t retain Antonio Pierce as head coach so it could go into cost-cutting hibernation.

The Raiders remain a rebuilding team that is top-heavy with veteran salaries. New general manager Tom Telesco had a habit of mistiming his spending with the Chargers: the current Chargers roster got old and expensive just as Justin Herbert reached his peak. There’s a chance that Wilkins is too-much, too-soon for a team with no real quarterback and needs all over the roster, in the same way that Davante Adams and Chandler Jones were two years ago.

That said, a nine-win, 50-sack season would give the Raiders an identity besides that team that hires clueless big-name retread coaches. And a rugged defense can make life much easier for a rookie quarterback.

Bears sign D’Andre Swift

Swift averaged 2.8 yards before contact per attempt, the fourth-highest figure among NFL running backs in 2023.

Swift averaged 3.7 YBC per attempt for the Lions in 2022. He did not have enough carries that year to qualify for the Pro Football Reference leaderboard.

Swift also rushed 98 times into light boxes last season (six defenders or less) per Sports Info Solutions, the third highest total in the NFL. He gained 505 yards and averaged 5.2 yards per carry on those runs, juicing his totals and averages.

That is what production which is largely the result of the offensive line and scheme looks like. The Bears don’t have anything close to an Eagles/Lions offensive line and are unlikely to build one this year. No one knows what their scheme looks like because they’ve been scheming for Justin Fields for three years.

Titans sign Tony Pollard

Three years at $24 million, the reported compensation for both Swift and Pollard, is not a ton of money for someone with Swift’s gash-run potential and Pollard’s versatility, so I’m not going to rip these signings too hard. Barkley at $8 million per year, with about $17 million guaranteed instead of $26 million, would have been a better value.

Pollard broke 25 tackles and eluded 14 tackles on 193 carries for the Cowboys in 2022. He broke 24 and eluded 13 on 252 carries in 2023. That drop in tackle-avoidance capability indicates that:

• Pollard benefited from Ezekiel Elliott doing much of the grunt work in the Cowboys running game early in his career; and

• Four years as the darling change-up back still count as four years against a running back’s short career lifespan. (See Alexander Mattison last year).

The Titans just swapped out Derrick Henry’s decline phase for Pollard’s. That might buy them a year of better-than-replacement level rushing, plus greater versatility in the passing game. Whatever.

The Titans also signed center Lloyd Cushenberry, who developed into a reliable starter in Denver. Cushenberry will have a greater impact than Pollard, because nobody’s doing nuttin’ in Tennesee if the Titans don’t fix their line.

Packers sign Josh Jacobs, release Aaron Jones

Jacobs is reportedly getting $48 million over four years, but with only $12 million guaranteed. It sounds like he signed a flabby fluffball of a Packers-friendly deal.

Jones was phenomenal down the stretch in 2023, with 100-yard rushing efforts in the final three Packers regular-season games and both their playoff games. Jacobs led the NFL in rushing in 2022 but slipped badly last year, with his yards-after-contact figure dropping from 2.4 per attempt to 1.5 per attempt. Jacobs’ yards before contact also slipped due to a decline in the play around him, but the fact that a bruiser took additional hits near the line of scrimmage in 2023 isn’t exactly a selling point.

Jacobs is younger than Jones, and he’s almost certainly much cheaper once the helium gets removed from that reported contract. The Packers also only have so many targets to go around in the passing game. This is fine.

Packers release David Bakhtiari

This is also fine, and expected: Rasheed Walker did a fine job at left tackle in Bakhtiari’s place last year.

Yes, Bakhtiari will be the Jets’ opening-day left tackle in 2024. And yes, he will be injured before Columbus Day.

Jaguars sign WR Gabriel Davis, Devin Duvernay

Davis would make an excellent replacement for Zay Jones but will probably end up being a very poor one for Calvin Ridley. Here are all three receivers’ numbers on passes of 20-plus air yards in 2023:

Ridley: 11-of-26, 349 yards, 4 drops, 3 TDs.

Davis: 9-of-19, 318 yards, 0 drops, 2 TDs.

Z. Jones: 2-of-12, 59 yards, 1 drop, 0 TDs.

Ridley, of course, brings value as a short-to-intermediate receiver, while Davis is largely a screens-and-bombs guy. Duvernay, meanwhile, is a punt returner and bargain-bin screens-and-bombs guy. Jones is just a guy.

I worry that Trent Baalke plans to build his entire receiving corps out of Zay Jones clones. Zay Joneses? Zays Jones? Za’clones? It’s the sort of thing Baalke might do without realizing he is doing it.

Jaguars sign safety Darnell Savage

Savage bounced back-and-forth between near-stardom and the bench for the Packers. He’s a versatile safety with big-play potential when his head is securely fastened and a missed tackle/assignment factory when he’s off his game. A fellow like Savage can go either way in Doug Pederson’s ultra-relaxed clubhouse. Savage may be another product of the Baalke Random Transaction Generator.

49ers sign edge rusher Leonard Floyd

Floyd is a “win more” type of edge rusher. Stick him on a weak defensive front and he’s easy to neutralize. Stick him on a line with, say, Aaron Donald or Nick Bosa and he’s a terror because opponents cannot scheme to stop him and his pure athleticism kicks in when a pocket collapses.

The 49ers are the perfect landing spot for Floyd: he reunites with Brandon Staley, provides an upgrade over the Chase Young/Randy Gregory reclamation brigade and could notch a half-dozen sacks just by dropping the quarterbacks who are trying to escape his teammates.

The 49ers released defensive tackle Arik Armstead because they could not come up with an extension which made sense. Floyd is a heck of a consolation prize.

Minnesota Vikings sign Jonathan Greenard

This was my least favorite transaction of the day before the Eagles signed Saquon Barkley.

Greenard broke out last season with 12.5 sacks after three up-and-down years for the Texans. Seven of those sacks came against Bryce Young, Will Levis and Zach Wilson, all playing behind dreadful offensive lines.

Per Sports Info Solutions, Greenard tied for 68th in the NFL in hurries and 42nd in pressures. He had a solid year, but there is no evidence that he’s blossoming into an elite edge rusher. Yet the Vikings guaranteed him $42 million in a reported four-year, $76-million deal. Maybe that’s where the market for young B-tier edge rushers is about to land. If that’s the case, the Vikings should have stayed out of the market.

The Vikings also added Andrew Van Ginkel, who played for coordinator Brian Flores in Miami, for two years at $14 million guaranteed. Van Ginkel is a nasty situational rusher who can also drop into coverage. Rounding out the pricey defensive overhaual: off-ball linebacker and Minnesota hometown hero Blake Cashman, who like Greenard is coming off a career year for the Texans.

I can’t help but think that if DeMeco Ryans believed Cashman and Greenard could sustain their 2023 success, the Texans would have found a way to keep them.

Russell Wilson to sign with Pittsburgh Steelers

This news will be well picked-over by the time you are reading, so let’s keep the analysis brief and simple.

• Wilson is an upgrade over Kenny Pickett. He’s certainly more resourceful than Pickett, because a kindergartener trying to survive alone in the Andes would be more resourceful than Pickett.

• Pickett is unlikely to rise to this challenge or handle a demotion well.

• “Almost free” is the right price to pay for Wilson at this point.

• Mike Tomlin kept a lid on Antonio Brown’s shenanigans when Brown was riding helicopters to training camp and was just months away from his helmet-painting/coach-doxxing phase. Tomlin can handle a few visualization exercises.

• When Wilson tunes out offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and does his own thing, the results will be less random and weird than actually doing Smith’s thing.

• There have been loud rumors that the Steelers plan to trade George Pickens or Diontae Johnson. It’s hard to imagine them trading a deep threat like Pickens after signing Wilson.

Adding Wilson turns the Steelers from a 10-win team that’s over-reliant on last-minute comebacks to a 10-win team that’s over-reliant on last-minute comebacks but doesn’t need to catch Jake Browning twice and the Ravens to drop a dozen passes.

I am researching the Ravens All-Time Top 5 QBs right now, and the Wilson signing is a lot like the trade for Steve McNair. The Ravens had a strong roster and needed to move on emphatically from perma-prospect Kyle Boller, so they brought in a creaky veteran who still had a little juice and gravitas. McNair led the Ravens to a 13-3 season, but the 2005 Ravens were better than the current Steelers, and McNair was not a flakazoid.

Tune in tomorrow for all the news I missed while editing and publishing today, including the Brian Burns trade, and more!