TankWatch: Dallas Cowboys

Jerry Jones ain't going anywhere, folks. So what can the Cowboys do to regain their dignity and return to the playoffs in 2025?

The hunk of metal that fell from the AT&T Stadium roof hours before the Dallas Cowboys’ Week 11 Monday Night Football loss to the Houston Texans was both an on-the-nose metaphor and an ominous sign.

AT&T Stadium is Jerry Jones’ pride and joy. It’s his public projection of power, his Versailles, a towering phallic obelisk testifying to his might and virility. (Though stadiums are less phallic than … er, let’s not derail in the second paragraph.) He uses “Jerry World” to stage college bowl games and prizefighting spectacles while hobnobbing with political power brokers. He even pampers the media there. It’s a glitzy extension of his self-perception. 

If Jerry World is now falling into disrepair, what chance do the Dallas Cowboys have?

It feels a little trite to give the Cowboys the TankWatch treatment right now. They are crippled by injuries. They are coming off a win in a slap-happy special teams slopfest against the Washington Commanders. They should beat the New York Giants on Thanksgiving to rise to a semi-respectable 5-7. But when I tried to write a Giants TankWatch, I got depressed after a few hundred words and stuck what I wrote on the back of Walkthrough.

Anyway, roasting the Cowboys is a Thanksgiving tradition. 

The Cowboys Story So Far

The tale of the 2024 Cowboys offseason has been well-told. Jerrah gutted the roster of useful mid-tier veterans (Dorance Armstong, Tyler Biadasz, Tony Pollard, etc.), did not spend a dime to replace them, bickered with his superstars over what should have been boilerplate contract extensions and generally cried poor like a wealthy grandpa who was tired of getting hit up for tuition payments. 

Still, the Cowboys entered the season looking like a playoff team – both superficially and according to DVOA analysis – thanks to Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons, some other stars and a soft schedule.

But the Saints pummeled the Cowboys in Week 2. The Ravens did the same in Week 3, though the Cowboys made things interesting with a fluky fourth-quarter surge. Then came the injuries: Tank Lawrence, Brandin Cooks, DaRon Bland, Micah Parsons for a few weeks, and finally Prescott. No team could weather such injuries without suffering a few defeats. But with no running game, lots of low-cost no-names in supporting roles all across the roster and a palpable lack of faith in their leadership, the Cowboys were rendered non-competitive. Their Week 12 victory had more to do with Commanders mistakes (and the continued brilliance of Parsons, Lamb and KaVontae Turpin) than any sort of rebound. 

Leadership Structure

Jerry Jones spent a few extremely-formative years in the 1960s as a scrawny offensive lineman and BMOC at University of Arkansas and has devoted the last 40 years of his life to making us watch him try to relive them.

The nouveau-riche Jones (his father obtained sudden wealth in the insurance business; Jerrah parlayed his share into an oil company) bought the Cowboys as both a toy chest and an investment in 1989. He employed former Arkansas teammate and college coaching iconoclast Jimmy Johnson as his first majordomo. He fired Johnson for upstaging him after two Super Bowls. He coddled his Johnson-built superstar roster through one of the last great cocaine-fueled rise-and-fall sagas of the 20th century. Jerrah then ran the team according to his own cantankerous whims for a generation, forever hogging the spotlight as the team’s emperor/carnival barker, slowly aging into a doddering parody of the octogenarian billionaire who complains about the price of groceries. 

Seen in light of his LBJ-era college football glory, Jerrah is more of a cross between Charles Foster Kane and Norma Desmond than the delusional whiskey-marinated loudmouth he is often portrayed as (usually by me). Jerrah’s Rosebud isn’t just winning the Super Bowl but whisking a co-ed away in a convertible afterward, perhaps plowing through an effort to integrate an elementary school along the way. He’s still big; it’s football itself that has grown smaller.

Stephen Jones is a tragicomic figure: a 60-year old man who has accepted that daddy will never die nor cede the reins of the family business to him. Stephen, officially the Cowboys’ CEO and director of player personnel, tries to run a semi-professional front office and is well-regarded for his open-mindedness in analytics and sports-science circles. Sadly, the best-laid plans of Stephen and his faceless lieutenants often amount to parlor games: Jerrah ultimately decides who gets paid and who gets fired. 

Stephen’s college scouting department runs a pretty tight draft room, which explains how the Cowboys went 36-15 from 2021 through 2023. When the son was forced to stand up to the father to prevent a draft-day catastrophe, the result was one of the most Shakespearean episodes in 21st-century NFL history.

Mike McCarthy is that most dangerous of frauds: one who believes his own hustle. After getting suplexed in a power struggle with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, McCarthy padded his resume and enlisted the help of Pro Football Focus and Peter King to rewrite his personal mythology. That and a moldering Super Ring made him an attractive nuisance to Jerrah and Stephen, who realized after a decade of Jason Garrett that they needed a head coach who offered something besides mere obedience. As soon as he got the job, McCarthy went right back to being the NFL’s most slapdash and inattentive big-name head coach. 

McCarthy’s Cowboys have been successful without being satisfying. They never add up to anything greater than the sum of their raw talent. McCarthy only still has a job because Jerrah has outright stated that he doesn’t like to fire coaches in mid-season. McCarthy will be back in his palatial “barn” pretending to grind film by mid-January.

Quarterback Situation

Dak Prescott has achieved a permanent residency on the quarterback B-tier. That means he is overpaid by definition – most B-tier quarterbacks earn A-tier salaries – but Jerrah has exacerbated the situation by turning every Prescott contract negotiation into a Wagnerian saga that ends with a top-of-the-market crescendo. 

Prescott, currently on injured reserve (severely torn hamstring), has a $90-million 2025 cap figure, meaning that the Cowboys will be forced to adjust the contract he signed in early September if they hope to do any real business in 2025. Such an adjustment will likely force the Cowboys to keep Prescott beyond 2026. He turns 32 next summer, just suffered a major soft-tissue injury and has a no-trade clause. He could be a problem for the Cowboys in a few years. But in 2025, he should still be part of a solution. 

Cooper Rush game-managed the Cowboys to a 4-1 record in relief of Prescott in 2022, inheriting Jason Garrett’s old Company Man For Life role as a result. Rush is your standard low-talent, future-coordinator backup.

Trey Lance is three toddlers in a trench coat and helmet who fooled draft evaluators during their COVID brain fog.

What’s Going Right

A short-but-interesting list:

• The Cowboys have outstanding special teams. Brandon Aubrey is 10-of-11 on 50-plus yard field goals, and the NFL may need to inaugurate a 60-plus yard category just for him. KaVontae Turpin leads the NFL with 36.3 yards per kickoff return and has returned a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns in 2024. 

• Parsons has been outstanding when healthy. Lamb sometimes single-handedly keeps the Cowboys offense moving. 

• A few young players have been encouraging. We’ll cover them in “Building Blocks.”

• The upcoming schedule is rather squishy. The Cowboys host the Giants, then the Bengals after a mini-bye, then visit the Panthers before hosting the Bucs. A 3-1 record over that stretch would leave them at 7-8 entering their season-ending Eagles/Commanders showdowns. The Cowboys won’t be seeking a rookie quarterback and should value dignity over draft position. 

What’s Gone Wrong

Injuries and offseason regrets, of course. But also: 

• The Cowboys have been outscored 78-32 in first quarters and 91-29 in third quarters. They often fall behind early, spar for a little while, then wait for the knockout punch that turns the fourth quarter into garbage time.

• No complementary receiving weapon for Lamb has developed to replace Cooks. Tight end Jake Ferguson is productive but has fumbled three times and is limited to the short passing game. Starter Jalen Tolbert would make a fine WR4. Turpin is a return man and gadget specialist who should get 5-10 offensive snaps per game but often gets over 20.

• No complementary edge rusher for Parsons has developed to replace Lawrence. Rookie Marshawn Kneeland is injured. Week 12 hero Chauncey Golston is a serviceable role player, but the Cowboys use far too many “serviceable role players” as starters.

• The running back situation, much harped upon during the offseason, is not cataclysmic: Rico Dowdle is better than replacement value. But Ezekiel Elliott still gets carries even though he runs like a self-propelled snowblower. The Cowboys rank 31st in open field yards, with just one run of 20-plus yards. For comparison’s sake, the Ravens have enjoyed 17 runs of 20-plus yards, the Eagles 16. As any Cowboys blogger will remind you almost daily, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley were available as free agents, and the Cowboys could easily have fit either into their budget.

Building Blocks

Prescott, Lamb, Parsons, Aubrey, and Trevon Diggs are all Pro Bowl caliber players in their primes who are under contract through 2025 (though Parsons is overdue for an extension). 

Recent drafts have been somewhat productive. Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe are holding their own as rookies on the offensive line. Sophomore linebacker DeMarvion Overshown has flashed big-play potential. The 2022 draft provided guard/tackle Tyler Smith, Ferguson and Bland, all of whom have already proven to be useful starters for a playoff team.

Future Assets

The Cowboys have $23 million in paper cap space for 2025, but that’s nigh-meaningless accounting fiction. Prescott’s contract will be extended to avoid a $90-million cap hit. Lamb’s deal will also be reworked to lower his cap figure from $35 million. Parsons, entering the fifth year of his rookie deal, may well hold out for an extension. Lawrence, Zach Martin and Cooks are all entering their “void” years, meaning all will probably be released, plopping about $19 million in dead money onto the books.

Top 2025 free agents include Turpin, Golston, punter Bryan Anger, steady slot cornerback Jourdan Lewis, Dowdle, Rush and Lance. That may not sound like a high-priority group, but remember that the Cowboys are in their current predicament because they refused to pay their last crop of mid-tier incumbent free agents. Turpin can be retained for a restricted free agent tender; the Cowboys should consider being a little more generous. 

The Cowboys own all of their draft picks for 2025 except the fourth-rounder they traded for – LOL – Jonathan Mingo. Over the Cap projects that they will get a bundle of late-round compensatory picks due to all of the free agents they let go this offseason.

Rebuilding Plan

Here is what I wrote in last month’s Mailbag:

If I were to buy the Cowboys, I would:

• Cancel all “talk to the owner” radio shows and media appearances. I would give one press conference per year. The head coach and GM would speak for the team.

• Eliminate the “clubhouse tours,” remove the creepy two-way mirrors from the weight room, and give players back their dignity and privacy.

• Extend Micah Parsons. Yes, the money is there. The Cowboys are really only paying Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Trevon Diggs beyond this year.

• Fire Mike McCarthy and replace him with someone who is not a self-promoter who lied in his job interview.

• Enlist the input of Prescott in the new head coaching search. Prescott is a level-headed individual and I want him as invested as possible in his own success.

• I would NOT gut the personnel department, because they do a fine job of finding talent. But I would make sure the whole system is professionalized and all voices are heard. Everything in Dallas is currently filtered through the prism of what Jerrah likes, which is fine when that is a Lamb or Parsons-level prospect but isn’t the best way to find late-round picks or bargain free agents.

To add some specifics to what was meant to be a more pie-in-the-sky set of guidelines, the Cowboys should:

Avoid the Bill Belichick/Deion Sanders Temptation. Sanders is another self-promoter. Belichick is as stubborn and nearly as past his prime as Jerrah. Both would quarrel with the Joneses in a way that would exacerbate the sideshow atmosphere. 

Stephen Jones is the only realistic choice for the showrunner role in Dallas. Their next coach should be a scheme-and-culture “good cop” who does not expect much personnel control and can handle the occasional public upstaging. 

Dear heaven, I just described Jason Garrett or Doug Pederson. But … maybe the Cowboys can find someone like that, only a little better?

Extend Some Damn Contracts. Parsons, of course. But Tyler Smith, Ferguson, Bland and Aubrey are coming close to the ends of their rookie contracts. Early extensions make young veterans more affordable! You gotta spend money to save money! If Jerrah no longer believes this, then Stephen needs to wrestle him for the checkbook.

Ashton Jeanty!!! The Boise State running back will be linked with the Cowboys in every mock draft from last week through April, just as Bijan Robinson was linked to them two years ago and Derrick Henry as a free agent this offseason. It’s just good SEO keyword-smithing. But you know what? Jeanty really would fit the Cowboys! They have lots of other weapons and a chance to become contenders again quickly. Jeanty could make life much easier for Prescott and Lamb. And golly can the lad run. 

Bottom Line

Jerry Jones turned 82 years old in October. 

The Cowboys look every bit like an organization run by an 82-year old who insists on having the final say on everything. The obstinate reluctance to spend money until there is no other choice. The incomprehensible statements and sudden, public lapses into seething rage. The casual negligence of important little tasks like negotiating with an in-house free agent or finding a running back. The dire need for a new roof. Heck, Jerrah turned closing a curtain into a public spat two weeks ago. I had a similar argument with a Sicilian aunt once. A few months later, we found money in her freezer and rancid meatballs in her dresser.

It can be sad to see anyone slip toward their dotage, particularly a figure who was once (yes) truly great according to a certain set of standards. At the same time, Jerrah has a sprawling family and a dutiful heir. He got to see his grandson follow in his footsteps at Arkansas. He owns a superyacht the size of a Federation starship. He could sail into international waters and live like a pirate admiral. He could tinker with refurbishing Jerry World the way other retirees assemble jigsaw puzzles. He can sit on the NFL’s competition committee, meddle in Pro Football Hall of Fame affairs, lord over his table at Prime 33 in Indianapolis during the Combine, dictate his memoir to a “secretary” he met on Harry Hines Boulevard and fall asleep in a lounge chair next to Robert Kraft at the owners’ meetings to his heart’s content.

Jerrah just really needs to turn the imperial signet ring over to Stephen. He is a bottleneck in contract negotiations, a blown fuse in the personnel process and a loose cannon that turns everything into a circus. No NFL owner should have as much power and as loud a public platform as Jerrah has, especially one who is fading into a grumpy shadow of his former rootin’-tootin’ self.

Yes, we’re ending on a bittersweet note, perhaps because so many of us will soon be spending time with older relatives and/or coming face-to-face with some unfortunate realities. 

The Cowboys are funny and a little sad, embarrassing but relatable. They still possess the capacity for excellence, and there is no reason for them to plunge into a long, dark rebuilding phase. They can succeed despite practically self-destructive ownership: they have done so before, and NFL teams do it all the time. They just need to work around the guy in charge. It will be more difficult than it has to be. It will take creativity, perseverance and a little defiance. But it’s possible.