TankWatch: Miami Dolphins

Many people want Mike McDaniel to be fired. Mike McDaniel is probably one of them.

The Dolphins are what the Nihilist Arby’s social media account would be if it were a football team.

I wrote so much about the Dolphins in the offseason, both here and at the Defector, that I risk repeating thoughts and jokes about the Jalen Ramsey trade, the organization-wide public negging of Tua Tagovailoa or Mike McDaniel’s poorly-concealed yearning for the sweet caress of oblivion.

Yet the story of the 2025 Dolphins is worth reinforcing. It’s a cautionary tale about the dangers of wishful thinking and keeping up appearances. It’s an object lesson in maybe-this-will-solve-itself organizational inertia. It’s Sartrean existential dread in helmets and shoulder pads. And it’s an indictment of a smarter-than-the-room dot-com mega-genius culture that now permeates and plagues every corner of modern society.

And you thought this was just gonna be a bunch of McDaniel-in-sweatpants jokes!

The Dolphins Story So Far

The Dolphins offseason was what North Dallas Forty would be like if it were written by Edward Albee. Principal characters McDaniel, general manager Chris Grier, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill formed a quadrangle of seething mutual contempt while owner Stephen Ross looked on like a cross between an emotionally-unavailable patriarch and an indifferent watchmaker god. Again, click here, here or here for more details.

The Dolphins looked downright miserable in their season-opening 33-8 loss to the Colts, who are now 2-0 but will never be mistaken for the 2007 Patriots.

On Sunday, the Dolphins hosted the Patriots, who entered the game with an 8-27 record since 2023. The kickoff temperature was 89 degrees, with 56% humidity: classic sunny-side-of-the-stadium Dolphins football weather. This was a chance for McDaniel to right the ship. The Patriots missed two extra points, committed 12 penalties and snapped a football over Drake Maye’s head late in the fourth quarter, setting up a go-ahead punt return touchdown by Malik Washington.

The Patriots won by a final score of 33-27. Oh, they tried everything in the final two minutes to lose the game: an incomplete pass to stop the clock, a false start on fourth-and-2 to lengthen a field goal for their dreadful kicker, a kickoff blunder to give the Dolphins the ball at the 40-yard line with two timeouts and 1:47 to play. The Dolphins responded with false starts, delay-of-game penalties, and back-to-back Tagovailoa sacks.

McDaniel explained the delay-of-game penalties after the loss: “I got the play call in, but I need to do a better job supervising the orchestration within our multiple personnel groups.”

This is your fourth year on the job, Coach. With the same quarterback AND receivers. If you don’t have the orchestration down now, it’s never happening.

Home fans booed throughout the Dolphins’ listless first quarter. A plane flew overhead with a “FIRE GRIER FIRE MCDANIEL” banner. It was a theater of overboiled frustration.

"Yeah, I won't spend one moment thinking about all the things that people – whatever people want me to think about. I'm thinking about this team and the Buffalo Bills here after I get done with this podium."

The Dolphins are 12.5 point underdogs in Buffalo on Thursday night, and that feels charitable. It’s unlikely that McDaniel will get fired on Friday morning if the Dolphins get walloped. But it’s not impossible.

Leadership Structure

Grier is one of the most successful executives in the NFL. It’s all a matter of how you define success.

Grier joined the Dolphins as a scout in 2000, the same year Tom Brady joined the Patriots. THAT WAS THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION. He’s been with the Dolphins longer than Mike Tomlin has been with the Steelers, or John Harbaugh the Ravens.

Grier welcomed Bill Parcells, his former boss in New England, to Miami in 2008. He bid Parcells adieu in 2010. Grier survived the Nick Saban, Jeff Ireland, Dennis Hickey, Mike Tannenbaum and Adam Gase eras, operating in various upper-echelon management capacities without besmirching his reputation. Machiavelli could learn a thing or two about boardroom politics from Grier.

McDaniel began his career with enough plot armor to survive a collision of the multiverses. A Mini-McVay whom we couldn’t make central-casting white-guy jokes about? A slacker-chic intellectual with a sympathetic recovery backstory? A playbook full of (theatrical swoon) presnap motion? Does he have a single older sister who likes old movies and long walks on the beach?

McDaniel’s shtick and offense worked, too. At least until the going got even remotely tough.

I’ll admit that I was predisposed to dislike McDaniel from the start. He always reminded me of a cross between the hotshot editor who told me to only write columns about NFL personalities with “sizzle” and the new straight-from-grad-school teacher who lectured me about his authentic self when I advised him not to wear a tank top to Parents’ Night.

I was not immune to the charms of the 2023 Dolphins offense, kept an open mind as McDaniel rebuilt Tagovailoa’s self-esteem after Brian Flores treated him like bird poop on the windshield and took rumors of pillowy practices and lax discipline with a grain of salt. But McDaniel lost me forever when he slouched his way through his 2025 Combine press conference, complaining of cold symptoms that kept him from standing up straight.

Photo by me.

Aw, does widdle Mikey need to put his head down on his desk because he has the sniffles? Come the hell on. Everyone is sick in Indianapolis in late February. You are seven-figure, high-profile management. Act like it.

Feel free to “OK Boomer” me for the last paragraph. But rest assured that Grier, Tyreek and others like former defensive coordinator Vic Fangio gave up on McDaniel long before I did.

Quarterback Situation

Tua Tagovailoa has a C-minus arm by franchise quarterback standards and can be sacked by a stiff breeze, but he makes up for it by engendering our sympathy. He’s a capybara: we’re so worried about him getting hurt that we pretend to not notice that he’s basically a less-durable southpaw Jimmy Garoppolo.

A capybara, chillin’ with a pal. Photo by Charles J. Sharp through Wikimedia Commons.

Tagovailoa’s longest completion of the season so far was a 47-yarder to Tyreek Hill in Week 2. It was Hill’s first reception longer than 30 yards since the 2024 season opener. (Note that Hill caught two 30-yarders last year, so that much-discussed stat was carefully engineered.) Tua wound up like an aging relief pitcher summoning one last fastball and heaved the ball with all of his might. Hill stopped, backtracked, checked his text messages and finally caught the soap bubble. If Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez were healthy, he’d still be running with the interception.

Grier, McDaniel and Hill all lost faith in Tagovailoa last season but didn’t want to be accused of victim-blaming.

Tagovailoa’s strengths are touch-pass accuracy, deft play fakes and a can-do attitude. He is guaranteed $54 million in overall compensation in 2026.

What’s Going Right

• Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane remain speedy, dynamic playmakers. Both played very well in Week 2.

• Tyreek Hill appears dialed in after an offseason, training camp and season opener of minor injuries and grumbles. He may be on his best behavior because he is hoping for a trade back to the Chiefs.

• Malik Washington is a dangerous punt returner who can do some Tyreek Lite stuff in the screens-and-reverses game.

What’s Going Wrong

• The Dolphins defense allowed 10 straight scoring drives to start the season. They did not produce a stop (not counting one pre-halftime kneel) until the third quarter of Week 2. Daniel Jones looked like Peyton Manning against the Dolphins. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson looked like Thurman Thomas and Barry Sanders.

• Oft-injured right tackle Austin Jackson, Grier’s first-round pick in 2020, suffered a foot injury in the season opener. He is now on injured reserve.

• The Dolphins’ cornerbacks are currently Rasul Douglas, playing for his 37th NFL team; Storm Duck, battling a left flipper injury; Jack Jones, who is too much of a ninny to summarize in one participial phrase; Jason Marshall, who has played like a fifth-round rookie so far; and recent Colts castoff JuJu Brents, who somehow cannot crack a rotation that includes Jones and Marshall.

• Grier signed tight end Darren Waller after shipping Jonnu Smith to the Steelers with disgruntled Jalen Ramsey for Minkah Fitzpatrick and bean dip. Grier must have ignored the loud whispers from the Raiders that Waller didn’t really want to play anymore in 2021-22, or Waller’s listless season for the Giants in 2023, or Waller’s 2024 retirement, or the fact that he’s 33 and has a long injury history. Waller has been dealing with a hip injury since signing. He practiced on a limited basis this week.

• Hill is facing a new round of extensive domestic violence allegations. Because those allegations are part of a divorce suit, the only consequences he will face for a well-documented pattern of despicable behavior will likely be financial. Frankly, I hope to see him playing in Podunk indoor football startup leagues and racing against ostriches in Dubai for alimony when he’s 49 years old.

Building Blocks

Waddle is in his early prime and under a manageable contract. Achane turns 24 in October and is still on his rookie deal. Patrick Paul has looked fine as a second-year left tackle so far this season. Rookie left guard Jonah Savaiinaea hasn’t been a problem. Chop Robinson recorded six sacks as a rookie and a seventh against the Patriots, though his production doesn’t really match his snap counts.

Future Assets

The Dolphins are $14 million OVER the 2025 salary cap, per OverTheCap.com. Tagovailoa’s 2026 cap number (counting all bonuses) is $56 million, Hill’s nearly $52 million, and Bradley Chubb’s is $31 million. Tua is essentially untradeable. Tyreek’s contract and reputation make him a horse pill. Chubb would be a bargain at half the price.

The Dolphins have an extra third-round pick in 2026 thanks to a trade with the Texans. They have an extra fifth-rounder in 2027 because of the Ramsey/Jonnu/Minkah trade. They are likely to get a 2026 compensatory pick because of all of their free agent departures.

It’s remarkable that the Dolphins lost so many veterans in the offseason, yet still have a bloated payroll and little extra draft capital to show for it. This is what organizational self sabotage looks like.

Rebuilding Plan

• Yeet McDaniel and Grier Into the Sun. Friday would be fine. The Week 12 bye would be fine. Just do it. Nothing is salvageable here.

• Don’t Call Bill Belichick. Ross will be tempted; he’s a silly old man with a chronic case of fame brain. Actually, both of them now are. Hire Belichick and you now get saddled with the worst of his failsons and cronies as your staff. And if status-obsessed belichickophile Jordan Hudson gets too close to South Beach, she may grow into a kaiju.

• Get Serious About the Tagovailoa Succession Plan. Tagovailoa will make a useful caretaker and mentor for a first-rounder in 2026. Until then, the Dolphins need to keep him healthy, live with his limitations and hope some mass firings wake up the rest of the roster.

• Trade Tyreek. Yes, the Dolphins claim that they do not want to. But Hill’s contribution-to-compensation-to-headache ratio will only make less sense as the Dolphins fall further into irrelevance, and no interim coach should be saddled with this guy. The Dolphins will end up getting nickels on the dollar and will be forced to eat a chunk of Hill’s contract. But some contender or wannabe will nibble.

• Trade Chubb. His future salaries aren’t guaranteed, and you can always get something for a veteran sack specialist at the trade deadline.

• Hire a Matched GM/Coach Set. The Dolphins NEVER, EVER do this. They promoted Grier at the same time that they hired Adam Gase, but that’s not the same thing: Gase was the de-facto showrunner at first, with Grier gaining power as Gase rapidly went nanners. Before that, there was always some roiling power struggle among various Parcells, Saban, Spielman, Randy Mueller, etc. types, often with a lame-duck quarterback held over from the previous administration calling the signals.

  Grier and McDaniel were clearly working at cross purposes this offseason. A matched-set administration doesn’t solve everything, but it also doesn’t come with a built-in set of obvious problems.

Bottom Line

The Dolphins face the Jets, Panthers, Chargers and Browns after they play the Bills on Thursday night. They could easily be 3-4 by late October thanks to Tyreek and Waddle. Then comes a Ravens-Bills-Commanders homestand to deliver the final knockout.

We could watch the Dolphins surf their schedule for a few months, marvel at the beauty of intermittent highlights and interpret scattered victories as signs of progress. But that’s essentially what the Dolphins themselves did in 2024. And look where it got them.