The Anarchist's AFC Preview

Part 2 of the Giant-Sized Walkthrough Annual rounds up the usual suspects among the AFC contenders, sizes up would-be challengers like the Broncos and Texans, and sighs in exasperation at the Colts.

Welcome to Part 2 of the Giant-Sized Walkthrough Annual. In this installment, we’ll examine the three AFC superpowers and the remaining huddled masses.

Walkthrough returns to its regular Monday schedule of analysis, stats and silliness starting July 28th and continuing through the Super Bowl, except for Labor Day. We’ll remain on a twice-a-week schedule throughout training camp and the preseason, switching into three-article-per-week hyperdrive starting September 8th. Paid subscribers get access to EVERYTHING, so hop aboard now!

Baltimore Ravens

The story so far

The Ravens are not playoff choke artists. They are just differently clutch.

Administration

I’m not sure what a “culture driver” is, but John Harbaugh is clearly one of them. Eric DeCosta is entering his seventh season as that guy who got promoted to replace Ozzie Newsome; he has become a master of the draft-and-develop game in his own right. Steve Bisciotti is rare among NFL owners in that he appears to be the competent CEO of a multi-million dollar franchise, not an aging manbaby crashing his model trains for fun. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken will be the Cardinals’ head coach in 2026.

With their continuity and disciplined, process-oriented approach to roster construction, the Ravens are the franchise the Steelers think they are.

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson is Josh Allen, but for Bluesky.

Offense

Possibly the NFL’s best, able to beat opponents with power, quickness, pocket passing, scrambling, schematic subtlety or Derrick Henry’s slobberknocker tactics. Until late January, when the Ravens: a) forget to run the ball; b) forget how to catch; c) have a collective aneurysm in every short-yardage situation; or d) all of the above.

Defense

The Ravens defense is usually stout until injuries in the secondary leave them with a dangerous vulnerability. But don’t worry: the Ravens signed Jaire Alexander away from the Packers to exacerbate solve this very problem!

Special Teams Note

Rookie Tyler Loop will replace scuzzbucket kicker Justin Tucker in what the Ravens legal department would like me to tell you was 100% a non-disciplinary football decision. Loop was 10-of-14 on 50-plus yard field goals in his final two seasons at Arizona.

Random Fact

The Ravens were penalized for an NFL-high 1,177 yards last season. Their penalty differential of -367 yards was also the worst in the NFL.

Bottom Line

It feels like the Ravens peaked last year. Furthermore, I got tired of rushing to their defense after every playoff loss two years ago. The Ravens remain on the Super Bowl shortlist, but I have zero confidence in them even getting there, let alone winning it.

Buffalo Bills

The story so far

The Bills spent much of their offseason energy trying to ban the Tush Push so Sean McDermott wouldn’t have to field any more questions about why the Chiefs knew that Josh Allen always sneaks to his left. You know you have reached the late stage of empire when more resources are spent finding excuses for mistakes than correcting them.

Administration

Brandon Beane is a brilliant salary-cap tightrope walker. Sean McDermott doesn’t blow anyone away as a tactician but has kept the locker room from fracturing under the strain of annual playoff trauma. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady pats Josh Allen on the back and says “Great job!” with enthusiasm and sincerity.

Quarterback

Josh Allen is Lamar Jackson, but for Facebook.

Offense

The Dion Dawkins-led line is solid and experienced. The skill-position talent is more Newsboy Legion than Justice League. James Cook is a solid standard-issue running back, but both fans and Cook’s agent like to pretend he’s Saquon Barkley.

Defense

Joey Bosa replaces Von Miller as the aging mercenary edge rusher. Tre’Davious White is back to provide mild-to-moderate disappointment in the secondary, unless rookie Maxwell Hairston can stay off the scuzzbucket list and keep White on the bench. Fortunately for the Bills, they don’t need to rely on big-name arrivals: quality incumbents at all three levels (Greg Rousseau, Matt Milano, Ed Oliver, Christian Benford) keep McDermott’s defense humming.

Random Fact

The Bills allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL in 2024 (14) and 2023 (24). All five starting offensive linemen return from last year. Allen has a teensy-tiny bit to do with those sack figues as well.

Bottom Line

The Bills were +500 to lose the AFC Championship Game as of early July, and it sounds like free money. They would need a hypnotist and an exorcist to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs at this point. But with the AFC East in flux, the AFC West improving and the Chiefs trying to plug a few serious roster holes this year, the Bills could push the Chiefs to the far corner of the playoff seedings and hope someone else does their dirty work for them. There’s no shame in that. Well, maybe a little shame. Also, who is supposed to beat the Chiefs for the Bills? The Ravens? Aw, geez…

Cincinnati Bengals

The story so far

The Bengals found a way to pay both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at the start of the offseason. Can you loan them 50 bucks until next January?

Administration

Zac Taylor is what Mike McDaniel would be if you replaced his cannabis with Diet Snapple.

General manager Duke Tobin has one of the NFL’s most thankless jobs, and he’s well suited to it. Executive Vice President Katie Blackburn, now the public face of the Brown family, wants to let Trey Hendrickson eat cake and is not allowed within 500 feet of a Dalmatian.

Quarterback

Joe Burrow is Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but for Instagram. He no longer has a haircut that suggests that he has pledged fealty to House Harkonnen and plans to gain control of the Dune spice by any treachery necessary.

Per Quarterback on Netflix, Burrow planned to purchase a replica Batmobile until a December home burglary made him change his plans. Son, being the victim of a crime should make you want a Batmobile more.

Anyway, Burrow can’t clean up Gotham by himself. And Trey Hendrickson has been strangely mum about where he got that 2019 LSU National Championship ring.

Offense

Burrow, Chase, Higgins and some useful functionaries, including a few pricey veteran linemen (Orlando Brown, Ted Karras), an affordable/versatile young running back (Chase Brown) and a slot receiver (Mike Gesicki) who pretends to be a tight end.

Defense

If Hendrickson holds out into the season or leaves in a huff, the Bengals will allow more points per game than the Washington Wizards. First-round rookie Shemar Stewart has already figured out that he’s working for sneaky skinflints and may not be on the field for the start of camp.

Random Fact

The Bengals are 7-14-1 in September since Taylor became head coach. Taylor tried giving Burrow and the starters some preseason reps last year, but that didn’t help much. Maybe the Bengals should try not alienating their most important players with endless, needlessly-contentious contract impasses. They can start in 2026.

Bottom Line

The Bengals will win enough playground shootouts to stay in the Wild Card picture, which will vindicate Blackburn/Tobin/Taylor, which will keep them slowly circling the diminishing-returns drain until Burrow does something radical like pay defenders out of his own pocket.

Cleveland Browns

The story so far

They did it! The Browns finally reimagined their football franchise as a Sartrian existential hellscape! Factory of Sadness upgrade: UNLOCKED!

Administration

Kevin Stefanski is an excellent coach if you set your standards to “can build the league’s 28th-best offense out of its 32nd-best quarterback situation.”

Andrew Berry is a clever general manager if we assume he had absolutely nothing to do with the Deshaun Watson trade and give him extra credit for not just curling into a fetal position and sobbing every time he looks at Watson’s contract. Jim Schwartz knows he won’t be blamed for any of this, so he might as well keep cashing defensive coordinator’s paychecks.

Paul DePodesta is still grifting owner Jimmy Haslam with his 1990s Strat-o-Matic baseball enthusiast’s understanding of analytics, making him the perfect Rasputin for the Truckstop Czar.

Quarterback

It’s like a boy band! There’s …

• The flashy cocky one (Shedeur Sanders)

• The moody brooding one (Kenny Pickett)

• The one who is already middle-aged (Joe Flacco)

• The twink (Dillon Gabriel)

• The cancelled one (Deshaun Watson)

Offense

Nick Chubb is gone. Jerry Jeudy is WR1. The veteran offensive line is good, but not good enough to protect quarterbacks who might be selected by rolling a dreidel.

Defense

Myles Garrett traded any hope of achieving job satisfaction and professional fulfillment for $125 million guaranteed, and heck, it’s not like the rest of us are so drowning in satisfaction and fulfillment that we would not do the same. The secondary is pretty good, though it doesn’t have much to do when the Browns are losing by scores like 24-6 and 20-3.

Random Stat

Watson’s cap figure for NEXT year is $80.7 million. Watson, Garrett and Denzel Ward are scheduled to eat up a combined $134 million in 2026, which will likely absorb about 40% of the team’s cap space. And only Ward’s contract can be manipulated without setting off a chain reaction which tanks the global GNP. Moneyball, everyone!

Bottom Line

Even if you craft a best-case scenario out of a 60-sack season for Garrett and company, replacement-level quarterback play by committee, a Steelers collapse and other semi-plausible factors, it’s hard to find a path to eight wins for the Browns. This year or next year.

Denver Broncos

The story so far

The Broncos have an impressive young quarterback for the first time since John Elway. To celebrate their achievement and protect their investment, they … upgraded their defense?

Administration

Sean Payton rules as an omnipotent despot with an IDGAF attitude about what anyone thinks of his decisions. Fortunately, Payton knows what he is doing and cares about results. We should all be as lucky as the Broncos.

Quarterback

Bo Nix started his rookie season throwing nothing but swing passes but started taking more downfield shots and making plays with his legs as the year went on. Nix is still a little bit of a Drew Brees cosplayer, but that’s fine when you consider who designs his costumes.

Offense

Nix needed weapons, so Payton went out and got … Evan Engram, J.K. Dobbins and Trent Sherfield??? Did we miss someone? Like, the Broncos didn’t trade for Brandon Aiyuk while I was down the shore or something?

Fortunately, Nix vibed with deep threat Courtland Sutton last year, while Marvin Mims is so quick that he could run through a car wash without getting sudsy.

Defense

Vance Joseph’s sack-happy defense, headlined by Patrick Surtain II and Zach Allen, could be even better with the arrivals of former 49ers Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga and rookie cornerback Jahdae Barron.

Random Stat

Nix led the NFL with 126 failed completions in 2024, per FTN. You can find the definition of a failed completion here, but it’s rather self-explanatory. Many of those micro-passes came early in the year, when Nix was still Leftenant Beauregard Sideways. But there are still some training wheels waiting to come off.

Bottom Line

Sacks and ball control probably won’t be enough to win the AFC West. But if the Chiefs stumble even a little bit, the Broncos will be waiting to pounce on them. Over 9.5 wins at -105 feels like a safe wager; over 10.5 wins feels reasonable, and you can juice the odds to +165.

Houston Texans

The story so far

In an unnecessary, sadistic, rip-the-wings-off-a-butterfly type of experiment to study the nature of human frailty, the Texans will force C.J. Stroud to play a second straight year behind an offensive line full of guys who flunked out of dive-bar bouncer training.

Administration

DeMeco Ryans is a standard-issue defensive tough guy, right down to his indifference to his quarterback’s well-being. Nick Caley, another product of the (yawn) Sean McVay Cloning Vat, replaces Bobby Slowik, who tried to build last year’s offense entirely out of swing passes that the opponents saw coming.

General manager Nick Caserio loves garage sales and flea markets, which is why the Texans roster is always littered with journeyman veterans you have vaguely heard of.

Hannah McNair quietly runs the Texans so her husband Cal can play Mario Kart on his new Switch 2.

Quarterback

Stroud began displaying all the telltale symptoms of Broken Prospect Syndrome late last year. Stroud could still make a full recovery with the help of a complete offensive line transfusion, but the only treatment he received this offseason was two aspirin, an icepack and one of those vitamin supplements they advertise on MeTV.

Offense

The goal each week will be for Stroud to remain alive long enough to throw some touchdown passes to Nico Collins, Christian Kirk and (before he once again shatters like a champagne flute) Tank Dell. That sounds suspiciously like the Jaguars’ development plan for Trevor Lawrence in 2023-24, right down to some members of the supporting cast (Kirk, tackle Cam Robinson). The Jaguars should sue for plagiarism. Stroud should sue for reckless endangerment.

Caserio loaded up on Robinson, Trent Brown, Laken Tomlinson and Ed Ingram and the offensive line at sheriff’s auction. Beware of any offensive line built from aging Patriots, Vikings and Steelers cast-offs.

Defense

Edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter will smother opposing quarterbacks. Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter will fetch any errant passes that pop loose before impact. Ryans’ defense will win 4-to-6 games all by itself, particularly against AFC South competition.

Special Teams Note

Pinball Wizard Tommy Townsend led the NFL with 31 punts inside the 20-yard line and 10 punts inside the 10-yard line in 2024. Texans games are often decided by field position as they descend into sack-and-penalty-filled muckfests.

Random Stat

Stingley led all defenders with 16 passes defensed in 2024. He also dropped four interceptions, per Sports Info Solutions.

Bottom Line

Either the Texans win their weakling division once again by prevailing in weekly sack battles or Stroud dies trying.

Indianapolis Colts

The story so far

Rest in peace, Jim Irsay. You’re with George Harrison and Graham Chapman now, in a far less silly place.

Administration

New owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon has been wearing headsets on game days for several years, not as a micromanagement tool (as we have been assured by the official team website that she now owns), but so she can answer the question: “Is this person full of BS?”

Under the circumstances, Chris Ballard’s best career move may have been to do what ancient Egyptian ministers did by following his pharaoh to the next world.

Head coach Shane Steichen, the answer to the unasked question “What if Nick Sirianni were more nondescript?” will be watching what he says until the end mercifully comes.

Quarterback

Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones will compete in training camp.

Offense

When Jones wins the job: completion for a gain of 3 yards on first down. Completion for a gain of 3 yards on second down. Incompletion on third-and-4. Some sacks and turnovers sprinkled in. Occasional drives consisting of YAC, Jonathan Taylor runs and 50-plus yard field goals.

If Richardson somehow wins the job: One 60-yard touchdown per game, maybe one YAC-and-Taylor field goal, and 17 three-and-outs.

Defense

There’s homegrown and expensively-sourced talent scattered all around: Zaire Franklin, Kwity Paye, Kenny Moore, DeForest Buckner, newcomer Charvarius Ward. There’d better be, because Ballard has been fiddling with this roster for nine freakin’ years.

Random Stat

Here is a list of all the quarterbacks to attempt 250-plus passes in a season with a completion percentage at or below 50.0 since 2000:

• Anthony Richardson, 2024 (264 attempts, 47.7%)

• Tim Tebow, 2011 (271 attempts, 46.5%)

• Ryan Leaf, 2000 (322 attempts, 50.0%)

• Akili Smith, 2000 (267 attempts, 44.2%)

Bottom Line

The Colts are not tanking to draft Arch Manning. They are ritually sacrificing a season to honor a dying father’s final wish. It sounds more elegiac and impressive when you look at it that way.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The story so far

The Jaguars once again changed regimes this offseason in a desperate effort to salvage the career of their once-promising quarterback. It’s pretty much the only thing they do.

Administration

The Jaguars replaced bad terrifyingly-unhinged cop Trent Baalke and good cop church-deacon-hanging-around-the-donut shop Doug Pederson with James Gladstone and Liam Coen, who look and sound like the two undergrads at the cellphone store who condescendingly ask me if I backed up my SD card, as if I have any idea what the hell they are talking about.

Gladstone’s date of birth is not in the public record. Wikipedia says he was born “circa” 1991, as if we’re trying to pin down the date of some biblical king. There’s a non-zero chance he used a fake ID to sneak into the league and is only 23 or something. Heck, it’s not like the Jaguars perform serious background checks. Baalke couldn’t even go through metal detectors because of his adamantium skeleton.

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence is Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but for pre-X Twitter.

Offense

Coen coordinated a clever screen-and-YAC heavy system in Tampa. He’ll try to do the same thing with a cobbled-together playmaker corps: rookie Travis Hunter, speedy Brian Thomas, adequately-versatile Travis Etienne and various leftovers from the Baalke purge.

Defense

New coordinator Anthony Campanile hails from New Jersey and coached at both Don Bosco Prep and Rutgers, because of course he did. Campanile, the elder statesman of the Jaguars braintrust at age 42, has little to work with besides edge rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, plus rookie Travis Hunter.

Random Stat

Only the Dolphins (104) attempted more screen passes than Coen’s Bucs (94) last year. The Bucs led the NFL with 8.2 Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt on screens last year; the Dolphins finished seventh at 7.6 ANY/A. Hunter caught 18 screen passes for 118 yards at Colorado last year.

Bottom Line

The new Jaguars regime is so young that it feels more like a model U.N. than an NFL braintrust. Heck, Lawrence is still a kinda-sorta prospect, but he is just four years younger than offensive coordinator Grant Udinski! (Udinski would be the perfect age for a Saints rookie quarterback.) Not to be ageist, but someone needs to be the wise sensei with lots of life/work experience in the room when it’s time to make big decisions. In Jacksonville, that role will probably be filled by … Tony Khan.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs tried to win another Super Bowl solely on front-line talent, reputation and vibes in 2024. They would have gotten away with it if not for those pesky Eagles and their stubborn unwillingness to panic at the sight of Patrick Mahomes.

Administration

Andy Reid is 29 wins behind Bill Belichick on the all-time list, has a higher winning percentage, is three playoff wins behind Belichick and also has not aged into a cringy fashion-challenged version of Hugh Hefner.

Steve Spagnuolo is one of the greatest defensive consiglieri in NFL history. Brett Veach quietly keeps the salary cap from bursting into flames.

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes is at the height of his powers as one of the top five quarterbacks in pro football history and looks more and more like Bugs Bunny facing the Gas House Gorillas every year.

Offense

Rookie Josh Simmons and former Trent Williams understudy Jaylon Moore will try to fill the sinkhole at left tackle. Check your news feed for daily health and legal updates on top playmakers Rashee Rice (likely to serve a suspension after pleading guilty to two third-degree vehicular felonies), Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, etc. Travis Kelce was mummified this offseason but still walks the earth at the behest of Anubis, the God of Death, who wants Taylor Swift tickets.

Defense

Chris Jones, Nick Bolton and Trent McDuffie give Spags a superstar on each level. Role players like George Karlaftis, Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal are playoff-tested. Weaker opponents have developed a habit of peeing themselves when within sight of Arrowhead Stadium.

Random Stat

The Chiefs are 35-7 in divisional games since 2018, when Mahomes became their starter.

Bottom Line

On paper, the Bills and Ravens are better than the Chiefs, and the Bills have a clearer path to a first-round bye and home playoff games. But the Chiefs have addressed their one glaring weakness and a few of their smaller ones, so opponents had better be ready to face them yet again in January games which will NOT be played on paper.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Story So Far

Tom Brady is making a bid to become the GMMOOAT (Greatest Meddlesome Minority Owner of All Time).

Administration

Brady holds the same spot on the Raiders org chart that Serena Williams holds on the Dolphins org chart but wields Jafar-like power. GM John Spytek was Brady’s college teammate and his eyes and ears in the Buccaneers front office. He’s now Brady’s factotum/majordomo/Fall Guy.

Pete Carroll is Brady’s Bill Belichick surrogate and a Real Old-School Football Guy to assuage Mark Davis’ daddy issues. Carroll will provide the motivational speeches and interpersonal intelligence so offensive coordinator Chip Kelly can hide in his office scribbling plays on the wall like a reclusive madman.

Quarterback

The Raiders seem to think Geno Smith’s career will have a third act. Fellas, that WAS the third act.

Offense

Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty is a Saquon Barkley-like talent who is about to have a Saquon-like career. He’ll rush for a million yards in 2025 while hoping to keep enough in the tank to win a Super Bowl with a better franchise in 2030.

Tight end Brock Bowers will be a first-ballot PPR Fantasy League Hall of Famer someday.

Defense

Maxx Crosby will do all the work and take all the money while moonlighting as Eastern Michigan University’s assistant general manager. It’s a downgrade from last year, when he moonlit as the Raiders’ general manager.

Random Fact

From the FTN Almanac: the Raiders had the NFL’s worst fumble recovery luck in 2024 by far, recovering only 24% of fumbles not including muffed kickoffs and punts. The Raiders recovered only three of 16 fumbles on offense and only three of 12 fumbles on defense, plus one kick return fumble.

Bottom Line

It sure feels like everyone from Brady to Crosby is using the Raiders as a vanity project/keep-busy job/resume-fluffer/side hustle that provides benefits. Still: Raiders +330 to reach the playoffs is not a silly bet. They should be non-terrible on both offense and defense, the competition on the AFC Wild Card tier isn’t all that stiff, and a little bit of fumble luck could go a long way.

Los Angeles Chargers

The story so far

America’s favorite perennial preseason sleepers are in a race against time to win a playoff game before Jim Harbaugh’s manic enthusiasm boils over from “infectious” to “cringe.”

Administration

Harbaugh actually believes his goofy rah-rah rhetoric, and so do his players. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman is the Gilligan to Harbaugh’s Skipper: part loyal sidekick, part enabler, part saboteur. GM Joe Hortiz has the thankless job of turning Harbaugh’s grunts, slogans and stanzas of the Michigan fight song into a coherent personnel plan.

Quarterback

Justin Herbert is Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but for Twitch.

The Herbert Hive has reorganized on Bluesky after its colony collapse on the former Twitter. The drones now self-identify as persecuted truth-tellers whose hero is too glorious to be judged based on earthly accomplishments. THIS IS HOW CHRISTIANITY STARTED.

Offense

The Chargers’ offseason curse has returned. Najee Harris bought his Independence Day party favors from Jason Pierre-Paul’s Fireworks Emporium and will start camp on the NFI list due to an eye injury which his agent described as “superficial” but is starting to sound ominously more like “Odin.” Mike Williams returned to Chargers OTAs for old time’s sake, then retired in July. Ladd McConkey is Herbert’s only reliable target. Rookie Omarion Hampton could get the punch-press treatment at running back.

Roman designed an offense to accommodate the young Colin Kaepernick back in the early 2010s, and his face froze in that position.

Defense

Khalil Mack, Derwin James and lots of guys named Otito Ogbonnia. The Chargers soured on Asante Samuel during his long recovery from a neck injury last year, letting him dangle in free agency. Samuel was still a free agent at presstime.

Random Fact

Herbert led all starting quarterbacks with 8.8 Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt in first quarters last year but fell to 15th with 6.6 yards per attempt in fourth quarters and overtime. He has produced similar splits in late-game situations in past years. In 2022, he ranked 15th in first quarters but 23rd in fourth quarters and overtime. (He was near the middle of the pack in both categories when healthy in 2023.) Yes, Herbert was awesome in that late-and-clutch situation against the Raiders in Week 18 of 2021. Read the name of the opponent and the year again, slowly.

Bottom Line

This team will go as far as Harbaugh/Herbert vibes can take them. Probably to another Wild Card berth and a playoff collapse against an opponent with a 21st-century philosophy and playbook.

Miami Dolphins

The story so far

The Dolphins are not rebuilding. They are just dying little by little on the inside.

Administration

Mike McDaniel is like the video game designer who releases his latest masterpiece when it is 80% complete: it has gorgeous graphics and fun early levels, but it glitches so badly that it bricks your computer and causes a neighborhood-wide power outage when it crashes. When pressed for comment, McDaniel mumbles about the “challenges of cutting-edge innovation,” promises a patch sometime next year, then chomps down on a Big League Chew-sized wad of melted-together Delta-9 gummies he found in his glove compartment.

GM Chris Grier brings up his relationship with Bill Parcells in every conversation with 85-year old owner Stephen Ross, who now sells minority stakes in the organization to private-equity vampires instead of Latin Grammy winners.

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa is Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but for WebMD.

Zach Wilson is waiting in the wings for his chance to either start or meet Fergie.

Offense

Tyreek Hill, Jayden Waddle and De’Von Achane make McDaniel look like a genius by operating at a higher framerate than the rest of reality. The offensive line is duct-taped together. Darren Waller, who retired in 2024 to escape the Giants and a troubled marriage (in that order), has returned to collect some Comeback Player of the Year notice and income tax-free paychecks. McDaniel draws gorgeous whiteboard scribbles, and his game plans work exquisitely in theory and against last-place opponents in ideal weather when Tua/Tyreek/Waddle are healthy.

Defense

The Dolphins traded Jalen Ramsey to the Steelers for Minkah Fitzpatrick, leaving Cam Smith, Kader Kohou and Storm Duck as their cornerbacks. The trade made the Dolphins defense weaker while not saving them all of that much money or adding meaningful draft capital. But hey: Storm Duck!

Random Fact

The Dolphins finished last in the NFL with 3.69 Adjusted Line Yards, a metric which measures run blocking independent of the skill of the running backs. The Dolphins addressed this issue by trading veteran left tackle Terron Armstead to the Commanders and making no effort to replace him. Though the Dolphins did sign guard James Daniels to provide a little thump up the middle. The Dolphins will soon be one Kenny Pickett away from recreating the glory of the 2023 Steelers.

Bottom Line

McDaniel, Tua and Grier are barely pretending to get along at this point: Grier wants a purge, McDaniel wants Wilson, and Tua would be wise to drop an anvil on his own foot to prevent the more worrisome injuries he could suffer behind the current offensive line. Let’s just hope they get through this messy divorce of a season without anyone getting seriously hurt.

New England Patriots

The story so far

Bill Belichick is long gone. All hail Mike Vrabelichick! Mac Jones is long gone. All hail Drake Maye! Most of the veterans Belichick overpaid to serve as Jones’ supporting cast are long gone! All hail the veterans Vrabel has overpaid to serve as Maye’s supporting cast!

Administration

According to the Patriots media/fans I interact with, Mike Vrabel should not be considered part of Belichick’s cursed Charlie Brown Christmas coaching tree because he never coached under Belichick, but is also a true apostle of The Patriots Way who is exactly like peak Belichick in all the good ways.

Also, Eliot Wolf held no personnel power when he was Belichick’s player-personal exec, and therefore cannot be held accountable for any past draft disasters or free-agent failures, but now wields a great deal of power (because Vrabel was notoriously bad at personnel when with the Titans) and has made nothing but shrewd decisions this offseason.

Josh McDaniels … you get the idea.

Quarterback

Drake Maye was outstanding when graded on the rookie-playing-behind-a-terrible-line-with-no-weapons-and-sometimes-banged-up-who-cannot-be-expected-to-keep-the-team-within-ten-points-of-Jaguars/Cardinals-caliber-competition-last-year curve. By that curve, I graduated college with a GPA of 11.3.

OK, that was a little overly sarcastic. Maye actually looked pretty good last year. But it’s important to cut through some of the Patriots’ offseason wishcasting.

Offense

No expense was spared upgrading the line from “could surrender a half-dozen sacks to the Bills scout team” in 2024 into what might be a top-20 unit in 2025 if rookie Will Campbell develops quickly.

Dread Pirate Pinknose Stefon Diggs will provide a little late-career Odell Beckham energy. Mack Hollins fills the coveted Matthew Slater role. Rhamondre Stevenson returns as the fumble-happy running back that Belichick would have buried on the bench circa 2012. Many of the receivers drafted from 2022-24 are still around to compete for a WR5 role.

Defense

There are lots of new faces, some of whom (Milton Williams, Harold Landry) are exactly the type of defenders the Patriots would snooker teams like the Browns into signing away from them.

On the religious front, Christian Gonzalez has grown into an outstanding cornerback, while rugged defensive tackle Christian Barmore has thankfully returned from career-threatening blood clots.

Random Fact

From the FTN Almanac: the Patriots only used play action on 17% of passing plays, 31st in the NFL, and only used presnap motion 39% of the time, 27th in the NFL. McDaniels may add more filigree to the offense now that Maye is more experienced and the Patriots are likely to be a little more competitive. But McDaniels was never much of a presnap motion guy, in part because he didn’t so much tailor his offenses to Tom Brady as hand Brady bolts of fabric and a sewing machine then stand off to the side and nod appreciatively like Tim Gunn.

Bottom Line

A creamy schedule could keep the Patriots near the back of the Wild Card pack for much of the season; the over/under of 8.5 is right on the money. But if the Jets had an offseason like this, we would laugh at them for overspending on journeymen and placing too much faith on a young quarterback who showed middling promise. The Patriots don’t get a pass just because we’re programmed to be in awe of them and the algorithms are programmed to cater to their national fanbase.

New York Jets

The story so far

The 2025 season promises to be one long carousing session after a buddy’s bitter breakup. “Good riddance. I’m better off now! Let’s go to a strip club! [Sudden sobbing] I just flushed my self-esteem down the urinal. What time is it in Pittsburgh right now? Too late to call? Let’s do shots.”

Administration

Aaron Glenn is the latest straight-shooting tough-guy defensive coordinator (yes these are racially-coded euphemisms please forgive me) to subject himself to the Jets experience in the name of career advancement. Someone named Darren Mougey is listed as general manager; Mougey was apparently a long-time Broncos paper-pusher, not Brick Johnson’s MDMA supplier.

Former Dan Campbell second lieutenant Tanner Engstrand is Glenn’s offensive coordinator, and I have never heard a name that sounded more like a morally-ambiguous genius architect from a ponderous Ayn Rand ripoff novel.

(Note: if the Jets manage to elevate themselves to the “weird Randian homage” level, that would be progress from their 2022-23 status as a sad Randian homage.)

Quarterback

Justin Fields is entering his fifth rookie season with three different franchises. He’ll win Comeback Player of the Year in 2036. Until then, enjoy his two highlights per game and never ask why the Jets lost 34-13.

Offense

Engstrand likely wants to construct something Lions-flavored, using Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, a rickety offensive line and some leftover Aaron Rodgers binkies as his building blocks. If it doesn’t work, he’ll BLOW IT UP HIMSELF TO PROVE THAT EXCEPTIONAL INDIVIDUALS ARE HELD BACK BY THE MEDIOCRITY OF THE MASSES.

Defense

Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams headline a unit that peaked in 2023 and have been marinating in the Jets toxic culture just long enough to start contributing to it.

Random Stat

Justin Fields (-4.8%) posted higher DVOA than Aaron Rodgers (-5.4%) last year.

Fields also led the league with 7 roughing-the-passer penalties drawn, even though he only started six games. Looking pathetic after getting pulverized could prove to be a very useful skill for a Jets quarterback.

The Jets are 17-49 in AFC East games since 2014.

Bottom Line

The Jets accomplished their most important goals of 2025 when they signed Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner to big extensions in mid-July. They must now protect that investment by performing well enough on offense and defense for both players to reach their final evolutionary form. Getting anything more than scrambles and vibes from Fields will be a bonus. Don’t worry about the playoff chase. The Jets are just trying to achieve dignity and professionalism. They are already part of the way there!

Pittsburgh Steelers

The story so far

This segment is somewhat unique and calls for a different kind of introduction. There is a little town called Pittsburgh. On a given morning not too long ago the rest of the world disappeared and Pittsburgh was left all alone. Its inhabitants were never sure whether the world was destroyed and only Pittsburgh survived, or whether the city had somehow been taken away. They were, on the other hand, sure of one thing. The cause. A monster had arrived in the village. Just by using his mind, he took away dignity, common sense and modern medicine, because they displeased him. And he moved an entire football team back into the dark ages, just by using his mind.

Administration

Now I’d like to introduce you to the people of Pittsburgh. This is Mike Tomlin, who had more control over monsters than almost anyone. But one day he disagreed with the monster. The monster doesn't like disagreement, so his mind turned Tomlin into this smiling, vacant thing you're looking at now. Tomlin coaches no more.

Offense

The people in Pittsburgh have to smile. They have to think happy thoughts and say happy things because once displeased the monster can wish them into a cornfield or change them into a grotesque walking horror.

Defense

J.J. Watt got paid. Jalen Ramsey came aboard. The defense appears good enough to offset the deficiencies of the offense. The Steelers have been counting on this throughout the 2020s, as did the Jets last year. Maybe this is Groundhog Day, not The Twilight Zone.

Quarterback

Oh, yes, I did forget something, didn't I? I forgot to introduce you to the monster. This is the monster. His name is Aaron Rodgers. He's 41 years old and looks and acts like the adjunct community college professor who tries to make time with the incoming freshmen. But when he looks at you, you better start thinking happy thoughts. Otherwise, you will join everyone else who ever dared to disagree with him in the cornfield that lies just outside the Too Deep Zone.

Random Stat

Pro Football Reference charged Rodgers with 98 bad throws last year. Only Caleb Williams (110) had more.

Bottom Line

No opponent has ever been able to do to the Steelers what the Steelers have just done to themselves. A “non-losing season” is no longer the bespoke, carefully-worded consolation prize. It’s now the reach goal.

Tennessee Titans

The story so far

2024 was a mayo-smeared blur. The rebuild starts THIS year. Or maybe in 2026, depending on how this year goes.

Administration

Brian Callahan is such a nonentity that he makes Zac Taylor look like freakin’ Charlamagne. Callahan’s staff is full of his father’s cronies, as well as his father, so you know it is built on a bedrock foundation of meritocracy.

Some Chiefs functionary named Mike Borgonzi replaced Ran Carthon as general manager this offseason. Borgonzi’s name makes him sound like one of the guys my grandpa used to play pinochle with, and he looks like an AI produced photograph of an NFL general manager which was produced by combining images of John Lynch and Chris Ballard but removing all traces of human personality.

Quarterback

Cam Ward is the top quarterback prospect that the Madden AI creates when you play franchise mode through until about 2041. I mean, he’s fine, but he probably wouldn’t have been the first-overall pick if his top challenger weren’t a homeschooled valedictorian who wears earbuds during job interviews.

Offense

If he was on your fantasy team when you finished in seventh place three years ago, chances are he’s on the Titans now: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Tyler Lockett, Van Jefferson. The Titans will pay Dan Moore a reported $81 million to stabilize an offensive line full of journeymen and underperforming youngsters. But who is going to stabilize Moore?

Defense

Jeffery Simmons and … seriously who the f**k are these guys?

Special Teams Note

Despite the presence of respected coordinator Bones Fassel, the Titans are projected by DVOA to have the worst special teams in the NFL this year. Erratic journeyman Joey Slye is their new kicker. Mid-2010s Pro Bowler and all-time fake-punt GOAT Johnny Hekker is their new punter. Fourth-round rookie Chimere Dike is penciled in for both return jobs. That is all you need to know about the Titans special teams, and much more.

Random Fact

The Titans were 2-15 against the spread last year. That took some doing for a team that was, on average, a 5.4-point underdog.

Bottom Line

A successful Titans season: 25 Ward touchdowns, less than 20 interceptions, less than 50 sacks, zero major Ward injuries and perhaps, almost incidentally, a few wins. The schedule isn’t too tough – schedules are never too tough in the AFC South – and Over 6.5 wins at +130 is a reasonable sicko bet if you want to spent the 2025 season caring about the Titans.

Coming Next Week: Actual current events from actual training camps. Football is back, babeeeeee!