The Anarchist's NFC Preview
Part 1 of the Giant-Sized Walkthrough Annual breaks down the NFC's pretenders, contenders, sleepers, rebuilders and whatever the hell the Falcons are supposed to be.
Welcome to Giant-Sized Walkthrough Annual #1. Think of this as one of those preview magazines you would purchase at 7-Eleven in mid-July, except that it was written in crayon by a gibbering madman. The high snark levels are intentional: too many sunshine suppositories are written this time of year, and Walkthrough strives to cut through SEO-friendly AI-tinged treacle.
For deeper insights, including eight chapters written by yours truly, make sure to order your copy of Aaron Schatz’s FTN Football Almanac 2025. It comes with tools to help win fantasy leagues and projections that can make for some sweet prop bets!
Arizona Cardinals
The story so far
The Cardinals are rebuilding according to a geological timeline and will reach the playoffs as soon as Kyler Murray’s descendants evolve into a higher, possibly insectoid life form.
Administration
Jonathan Gannon is a cross between a less-creative Nick Sirianni, a less-dynamic Matt Eberflus and a distracted gym teacher who makes his real money in driver’s ed.
Everyone else on the Cardinals org chart is somehow less dynamic and inspiring than Gannon. The Cardinals offensive coordinator is someone named Drew Petzing. I am afraid to Google “Petzing” because it sounds too much like a sex act for the cripplingly lonely.
Quarterback
Kyler Murray is … good? Getting better? Still developing as he enters his seventh NFL season? He still generates some highlights for FOX NFL Gamebreak, and the Cardinals aren’t terrible, so he must be doing something right. Right?
Offense
Marvin Harrison Jr. provides name recognition. Trey McBride provides fantasy production. James Conner is somehow still the featured back. It’s not a terrible offense, but everyone is just kinda Petzing around.
Defense
A thorough offseason overhaul brought Josh Sweat, Dalvin Tomlinson, Calais Campbell and rookies Walter Nolen and Will Johnson. Yep, that’s an overhaul. In previous years, the Cardinals defense was basically Budda Baker and a bunch of “positionless defenders” pretending to play various positions.
Random Fact
Since 2019 (the start of the Kliff Kingsbury epoch), the Cardinals are 10-23 in games played in December or January, including one playoff loss.
Bottom Line
The Cardinals are like pacesetters in a long-distance run: they look like they are leading in the early laps, but their real job is to keep the real playoff teams from falling too far behind, and they pull off the track down the stretch. The gambling odds suggest that the house believes the Cardinals will finish somewhere between 8-9 and 9-8. They’re a lot like our next team, except with a tougher schedule and without the hilarious flopsweat that never dries.
Atlanta Falcons
The story so far
The Falcons are rebuilding around their young quarterback. Except that they kept their old quarterback. And didn’t change much else. It’s the Falcons, folks: just nod along and pretend it makes sense.
Administration
Raheem Morris is on his second tour of duty with the Falcons and third in the NFC South. His first head coaching gig (Buccaneers, 2009-11) ended when he dithered too long at quarterback while the solid defense he helped build fell apart. This situation is different, because the Falcons did not have a solid defense.
Terry Fontenot ostensibly serves as general manager, though Rich McKay remains the man behind the curtain who makes sure Arthur Blank doesn’t get any funny ideas about Lamar Jackson, Bill Belichick or actually solving any of the team’s problems before they become half-decade-consuming crises.
Quarterback
Footage of Michael Penix’s 100 dropbacks last year has gotten the Zapruder treatment from the NFL’s film-junkie intelligentsia; the experts are even more bullish about Penix’s late-season performance than they were about Desmond Ridder two years ago!
Kirk Cousins is the 30-foot cabin cruiser your brother-in-law bought with your niece's college fund just after the divorce became final and before he realized that he gets seasick.
Offense
Bijan Robinson and backup Tyler Allgeier can thump. Drake London and Darnell Mooney are credible receivers; that’s not the same as “great,” but it’ll do in the NFC South. The veteran offensive line protected Cousins like environmentalists chaining themselves to a sequoia last year, so they’ll keep Penix upright. Kyle Pitts’ continued employment would be much more confusing and sad if everyone wasn’t so fixated on Cousins.
Defense
After trying to get by with no pass rush whatsoever for nearly a decade, the Falcons drafted both Jalon Walker (positionless Georgia action figure) and James Pearce (speedy not-always-with-the-Tennessee-program guy) in the first round, burning their 2026 first-round pick in the process. By Falcons standards, getting two prospects for the price of three is actually a bargain.
Special Teams Note
Lenny Kreig will push Younghoe Koo in camp after Koo suffered through a slump and a hip injury last year. Krieg kicked for the Berlin Adler of the German Football League and Stuttgart Surge of the European League of Football while attending graduate school and selling real estate. He worked out at South Florida’s pro day, and the Falcons liked what they saw enough to sign him to a three-year, $3.02-million contract.
While I know “Adler” means “Eagle,” Berlin Adler makes it sound like the Falcons could have an unsettling German version of Rowan Atkinson as their kicker this year.
Random Fact
The Falcons are 30-54-2 against the spread when facing non-divisional opponents since 2017. Never bet on the Falcons, folks.
Bottom Line
You know how AI burns down 500 acres of rainforest to generate images of soldiers rescuing four-armed babies to litter your Facebook feed? The Falcons are destroying the earth’s ecosystem so they can produce second-place finishes in the NFL’s derpiest division.
Carolina Panthers
The story so far
The Panthers are coming off one of their encouraging five-win seasons, not to be confused with one of their discouraging five-win seasons. The Panthers have more subcategories for five-win seasons than French vintners have for grapes.
Administration
Dave Canales combines Pedro Pascal’s chiseled sexiness with an off-the-rack McVay wannabe’s servicable leadership and tactical chops.
GM Dan Morgan hasn’t done anything inexcusably foolish yet, placing him at least one notch above his predecessors. David Tepper is the worst owner that NFL fans haven’t really gotten to know yet.
Quarterback
Bryce Young developed from “OMG they put a helmet on a JV waterboy and he’s gonna die out there” to “conventionally-subpar second-year quarterback” after an early-season benching last year. And if that trend continues … it will be one of the few times in history that such a trend continued.
Offense
Chuba Hubbard is worth your fantasy attention. Adam Theilen is fading fast but probably still has a few third-down conversions left in him. Everyone else is a talented project who produced about 1.5 highlights in 2024, except feel-good reclamation project Hunter Renfrow. Yes, Renfrow is back. In Panthers form.
Defense
Jaycee Horn and Derrick Brown are the guys you have heard of: Horn is gifted-but-inconsistent, and Brown was hurt all of last year. The Panthers defense was among the NFL’s worst last year. Morgan upgraded it by signing Tre’von Moehrig and a bunch of castoffs from the Rams.
Random Fact
Opponents produced 83 explosive runs against the Panthers defense in 2024 per FTN; no other defense allowed more than 70. Opposing ballcarriers avoided 110 tackles against Panthers defenders, also the highest figure in the league. The Panthers defense will be better this year, but it’s worth noting just how terrible it was.
Bottom Line
The Panthers are a Year Zero rebuilding team that thinks it turned some sort of corner in the second half of last season. They are in for some unpleasant surprises. Please be kind to them. (Click here for more Panthers roasting.)
Chicago Bears
The story so far
The young quarterback is just fine! All he needs is proper coaching and a better supporting cast! And no, we don’t remember saying the same things about Mitch Trubisky or Justin Fields! Our organization is run by goldfish! We just swim in circles around the bowl and marvel at our reflection in the glass!
Administration
Ben Johnson was the genius behind Dan Campbell until he realized that he could not hide behind Dan Campbell any longer. Johnson is a master tactician. That Jameson Williams flea-flicker that dashed all hope of a Lions playoff comeback last year? Probably Campbell’s idea.
Johnson’s defensive coordinator is Dennis Allen, who coached the Saints for two-and-a-half years without making any impression on anyone. Johnson’s offensive coordinator is Declan Doyle, the Riverdance vampire from Sinners.
GM Ryan Poles is still eating lunch he stole from the Panthers before the 2023 draft.
With the passing of Virginia McCaskey, 69-year old son George McCaskey takes over as controlling owner and is finally allowed to date.
All Bears coaching and personnel decisions must be vetted and cleared by Caleb Williams’ father Carl. Otherwise, Seth Wickersham’s phone explodes.
Quarterback
Despite anything you may have read in Wickersham’s book, Caleb Williams is 100% happy to be in Chicago and is a consummate professional who is eager to soak up Johnson’s wisdom. You know things are going well when a team must spend all of OTAs taking pains to say things like that.
Johnson is working on Williams’ “body language” and presumably teaching him how to watch film like an all-growed-up quarterback. Here’s the first film Johnson selected:
Offense
Poles and Johnson rebuilt the offensive line for Williams, adding free agents Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson. The Bears also rebuilt the offensive line for Fields, but never mind.
DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland would provide Josh Allen with enough firepower to win three Super Bowls, a World Series and the Clone Wars, so they might just be enough to get Williams under the 60-sack threshold.
Defense
Jaylon Johnson headlines a star-studded secondary. Unfortunately, the Bears pass rush is nothing special, and most opponents beat the Bears last year just by handing off and waiting for Williams to implode.
Random Fact
Williams threw 164 passes of zero or negative air yards last season, the third-highest figure in the NFL. So his offensive coaches (the Bears ran through a bunch of them) really were trying to give him some layups. Williams just froze like he was trying to be invisible to a T-Rex whenever it was time to look downfield.
Bottom Line
Yes, Johnson seems like a pretty great coach. Yes, Williams displayed flickers of talent and competence last year, plus no shortage of toughness. I just cannot get past the level of professional remediation Williams appears to need, and the amount of hand-holding the Williams family needs while he receives it.
Dallas Cowboys
The story so far
The Cowboys personnel department, which ran out of new ideas three years ago, has resorted to rounding up early-round draft busts from other franchises (Payton Turner, Kaiir Elam, Solomon Thomas, Javonte Williams, Kenneth Murray, Parris Campbell) and arranging them into a little charcuterie platter for Jerry Jones. (Or as Jerrah calls a charcuterie platter: one of them thar heaps of crackers and Eye-talian cold cuts.)
George Pickens is no draft bust, of course, but just wait until the Cowboys find out what happens to high-maintenance receivers the moment they leave the Steelers.
Administration
Jerrah blathers and preens. Stephen Jones tries to simultaneously appease Big Daddy and maintain the veneer of professionalism while supervising an underrated college scouting department.
Brian Schottenheimer got promoted from offensive coordinator to head coach because Jerrah forgot to fire him. Scottenheimer, with his unsweetened-oatmeal playbook and personality, couldn’t risk hiring coordinators who were more dynamic and competent than him. That’s defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus’ entrance music!
Quarterback
Dak Prescott is approaching the downside of his career. Wait … did we miss the upside? Prescott remains an above-average NFL starter. But you know how it is with quarterbacks who inspire phrases like “remains an above-average NFL starter.”
Offense
Pickens will stretch defenses deep when the spirit moves him. CeeDee Lamb will thrive in the space created by Pickens, even if Pickens doesn’t feel like creating much. An offensive line full of former first-round picks should prove sturdy enough. Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders arrived to solve last year’s running back crisis, which means that the Cowboys will still face a running back crisis.
Schottenheimer likes to be predictable on purpose and win with discipline and fundamentals, a tactic which worked well for the Cowboys in the early 1990s, when the franchise was run by grown-ups and the roster was littered with Hall of Famers.
Defense
Micah Parsons (who apparently would play for free, and just might), DaRon Bland, Trevon Diggs, Osa Odighizuwa and a bunch of guys who were drafted early by other teams, given several chances to succeed and then left by the curb on recycling day.
Random Fact
Opponents scored touchdowns on 75% of their red zone appearances and 88.2% of their goal-to-go appearances against the Cowboys defense. Both figures were the worst in the NFL.
Eberflus’ Bears were usually awful at red-zone offense, so it’s just a matter of flipping the situation around and applying it to the Cowboys. (Jerrah nods at this subtle wisdom, pours another Scotch, dozes off.)
Bottom Line
The Cowboys’ front-line talent often drags the rest of the franchise kicking and screaming to double-digit wins. This might be one of those years, and speculators/true believers can wager the Cowboys over 9.5 wins at +200 or, if you are really feeling it, over 11.5 at +450.
But 2025 could just as easily be the year when their carnival-like culture, randomized roster decisions, penny-wise/dollar-foolish spending habits and appetite for milquetoast factotum coaches REALLY catches up with them, making under -7.5 at +135 a much safer bet.
Detroit Lions
The story so far
Ben Johnson is gone? No worries. Aaron Glenn too? No worries. Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes chose not to add a big-name edge rusher to help Aidan Hutchinson? NO WORRIES. Frank Ragnow retired? Oof, what is that rumbly feeling in the pit of the stomach?
Administration
Campbell the Barbarian retained as many of his minor chieftains as he could when his coaching staff disbanded; key figures like special teams coordinator Dave Fipp, quarterbacks coach Mark Brunell and running game coordinator Hank Fraley are still around. Johnson and Glenn will be missed, but things could have been worse.
Holmes, who handles the logistics so Campbell can concentrate on grrrrr, was aggressive when rebuilding the roster but has become more cautious at supplementing and maintaining it.
Quarterback
Jared Goff is the Platonic ideal of the type of quarterback coaches love because of his programmability, serviceable talent and workmanlike style, while fans/tastemakers despise him for his programmability, serviceable talent and workmanlike style.
Offense
John Morton, a Campbell confidante from their days on Sean Payton’s Saints staff, vows not to change much. The only thing scarier than a new offensive coordinator saying he will change everything is one saying he won’t change anything. Still, you know the cast of characters: slot superweapon Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Sonic-and-Knuckles backfield of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, blazing deep threat Jameson Williams, and the same yummy exterior offensive line (Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker) with an all-new creamy filling. Decker will start camp on the injured list, but there’s a lot of that going around.
Defense
Hutchinson and other starters are back. Well, more-or-less: a bunch of them (Alim McNeill, Josh Paschal) will start camp on the injured list. And Levi Onwuzurike is already out for the year with an ACL tear, which is awful but at least means I won’t have to worry about spelling his name correctly for a while. Anyway, stop complaining about the lack of significant upgrades! Well, complain a little. Seriously: the Lions are counting on Marcus Davenport to be healthy and productive? Who do they think they are, the 2020 Saints?
Random Fact
The Lions defense suffered 86.5 Adjusted Games Lost to injuries in 2024. That’s the sixth-highest total of the 21st century, and none of the other teams on the top ten list reached the playoffs. So the “get better by getting healthy” plan on defense makes a lot of sense. Though would it have killed the Lions to pursue Joey Bosa?
Bottom Line
Yes, the coaching departures and retirements make the Lions look like a team that’s falling apart before it gets a chance to accomplish anything. Yes, two straight playoff heartbreaks make them look like the Ravens or Bills, but without Patrick Mahomes as an excuse. But the Lions remain one of the NFC’s teams to beat. And I will never doubt Campbell’s ability to coach his team over a high hurdle. Not to his face, anyway.
Green Bay Packers
The story so far
Two years after singing “Ding! Dong! The Lich is Dead!” it is becoming clear that the Packers never needed Aaron Rodgers: they could be a seething cauldron of discord, intrigue and resentment all by themselves.
Administration
Matt LaFleur is a cross between Kyle Shanahan (awesome game-planner and play-caller) and Mike Tomlin (better at reaching the playoffs with a bunch of unhappy campers than actually accomplishing anything when he gets there).
Brian Gutekunst and Mark Murphy excel at building rosters which were great three years ago and could be great two years from now but are just above average right now. Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley was not the team’s biggest problem last year, but give him time.
Quarterback
Jordan Love still looks like an outstanding Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate as he enters his sixth NFL season. Love enjoys stretches of excellence, but he needs to get over his growing pains before the aging pains start.
Offense
Jayden Reed is the YAC guy. Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are the injury-plagued boundary guys. Mathew Golden is the new guy. They all take turns being the flighty, pass-bobbling unreliable guy, which is why Josh Jacobs said in February that the Packers “need a guy that's proven to be a No. 1 already.” Gosh, who else said things like that? Surly fella, straggly beard, smelled like mung beans and ayahuasca …
Elgton Jenkins, who has stabilized the Packers line as a guard and sometime left tackle for years, will move to center this year. Jenkins wants a contract extension and skipped most of OTAs; the Packers were too busy dithering with Jaire Alexander to notice. The closer you look at how the Packers do business, the more sense Rodgers starts to make. It’s kinda scary.
Defense
Jaire Alexander is gone, and the Packers will miss him on the four games per year when he was 100% healthy and the team knew in advance that he would be available, usually NOT against the Vikings or Lions.
Newcomer Nate Hobbs can battle Amon-Ra St. Brown in the slot but won’t be much help on the outside. Star safety Xavier McKinney will make sure the rebuilt secondary doesn’t get too toasted.
Burly Rashan Gary is the top pass rusher. The Packers value speedy modern edge rushers the same way they value experienced go-to receivers.
Random Stat
The Packers’ dropped pass rate of 7.0% was the fourth-highest in the NFL. But if we isolate targets to wide receivers only, their drop rate shoots up to 9.2%, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the second-place Chargers.
Bottom Line
Instead of Super Bowl windows, the Packers have built a Super Bowl doggy door: it’s always technically open, but they would have to stoop down and really squeeze through it. The Packers went 0-6 against the Lions/Vikings/Eagles last year (counting the playoffs) and appear custom-built to once again run on a hamster wheel among the NFC’s Wild Card competitors.
Now that Rodgers’ patchouli miasma has completely wafted away, coasting on reduced expectations and feel-good vibes won’t be enough, because the expectations have risen and the vibes no longer feel so good.
Los Angeles Rams
The Story So Far
Instead of collapsing into a cap-strapped heap after their early-decade Super Bowl run, the Rams have completely rebuilt around Matthew Stafford. All it took was courage, flexibility and vision. Other franchises will copy the Rams as soon as they return from the Emerald City with the necessary tools.
Administration
Sean McVay has made the tricky Leonardo DiCaprio transition from youthful heartthrob to twinkle-eyed middle-aged scoundrel. GM Les Snead, meanwhile, has shifted his draft philosophy from “F**k ‘em Picks” to making f***ing good picks.
The McVay Cloning Vat is in power-saver mode as it struggles to catch up with demand, so retread Mike LaFleur and grandson-to-a-legend Chris Shula are McVay’s coordinators.
Quarterback
Stafford is enjoying his status as the only Distinguished Old Champion Quarterback in the NFL who is not both washed and utterly bugnuts. Financially, at least.
Offense
Puka Nacua is now McVay’s man-in-motion. Davante Adams, seeking rings and serenity, replaces Cooper Kupp on the roster but will serve as more of a boundary threat. Everyone else is just a miner or scout on McVay’s Stratego board.
Defense
Jarod Verse and Braden Fiske arrived in last year’s draft, Kobie Turner and Byron Young in 2023. Heaven help opposing quarterbacks when all four of them figure out how to turn their hurries and pressures into sacks.
Random Fact
Rams quarterbacks (Stafford, essentially) targeted a receiver who went into presnap motion 154 times in 2024, generating 114 catches for 1,409 yards. All of those figures were league highs. Nacua was targeted a league-high 45 times after motion, producing 450 yards on 33 catches; Ja’Marr Chase led the NFL with 35 catches. McVay uses presnap motion to great effect, and while it will be fun watching him continue to innovate, it will be much less fun watching his less-inspired imitators force-feed short passes to motioning playmakers. Malik Nabers, this will be your life.
Bottom Line
McVay, Stafford and the fledgling sackmeisters will keep the Rams in the playoff chase. They appear to still be a player or two away from Super Bowl contention.
Minnesota Vikings
The story so far
The J.J. McCarthy Rookie Season 1.0.1 Patch is now ready for download. Last year’s Sam Darnold DLC will no longer be supported.
Administration
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores is the Buddy Ryan of our era. He’ll someday find a way to blitz 13 defenders. Flores is an asset as long as he sticks to defense: he hates all quarterbacks, especially his own.
Kevin O’Connell is brilliant when tapdancing through quarterback emergencies but less effective when everyone is healthy and everything is progressing according to plan. GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah keeps attempting Moneyball reboots, but the Vikings keep ending up in the playoffs, forcing him to sigh and pay veterans.
Quarterback
McCarthy attempted 17 preseason passes before tearing a meniscus last August. He underwent two surgeries (one in November) and spent most of his rookie season in the classroom or the whirlpool. He’s healthy, but no one knows how good he can be, and if I read one more quote out of Vikings headquarters praising McCarthy’s dedication and resilience I will barf up my pancreas.
Offense
Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison (facing a likely DUI-related suspension), T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones made Darnold look like a $150-million franchise starter for nearly four months. Imagine what they can do for McCarthy! The Vikings offensive line buckled late last year, so O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah fetched Ryan Kelly and Will Fries from Indy, where they spent the last two seasons blocking for a glorified power forward.
Defense
Flores’ chess pieces include Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, Ivan Pace, Jonathan Greenard, ageless Harrison Smith and veteran newcomers Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen. Flores’ version of “chess” involves rigging the pieces with tiny explosives, throwing them at you, and then beating you over the head with the board.
Random Stat
Vikings opponents were called for a league-leading 166 penalties (including declined and offsetting) worth 1,185 yards. That included 15 defensive pass interference flags worth a league-leading 328 yards, nearly 100 yards more than any other offense. Penalty stats are generally random. Central tendency should pull the Vikings back toward the mean, though longtime Vikings observers will note that central tendency works differently for them.
Bottom Line
If developing McCarthy for the future is the goal, the Vikings should be fine. But another 13-14 wins would be asking an awful lot of McCarthy, Flores and the Patron Saint of One-Score Victories (St. Keenum of Mankato). The Vikings over-under for wins is 8.5. Avoid it.
New Orleans Saints
The story so far
This is what an NFL team would look like if it were a money-laundering scheme.
Administration
GM Mickey Loomis is a cross between a con artist advertising reverse mortgages to senior citizens on channels that show old episodes of Walker: Texas Ranger all afternoon and the poor benighted souls who actually fall for the con.
Kellen Moore hid behind Mike McCarthy, Brandon Staley and Nick Sirianni as long as he possibly could before accepting a head-coaching job and exposing himself to actual criticism. Though, technically, he’s still hiding behind Loomis.
Staley is now Moore’s defensive coordinator. If we could harness the static electricity created by all of the back-scratching in the NFL coaching fraternity, we could light the Eastern Seaboard for 600 years.
Quarterback
Derek Carr pulled a Sean Payton and “retired” to nurse a shoulder injury/escape the Saints, leaving Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler to compete for the starting job. Both Shough and Rattler would still be collecting NIL money if the NCAA offered ninth seasons of eligibility.
Offense
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are nasty deep threats when healthy. Alvin Kamara is getting old. Taysom Hill is coming off a December ACL tear. All Saints first-round picks are spent keeping the offensive line from collapsing. Brandin Cooks and Cam Akers heard that there was a drunk on Bourbon Street handing out signing bonuses he couldn’t afford and found themselves swapping beads outside Cafe Loomis.
Defense
Cam Jordan, Demrrio Davis and Tyrann Matthieu remain the best players. They are also a combined 175 years old and have cap figures of $213 billion extending through 2041.
Random Fact
The Saints are eating $82.7 million in dead cap space in 2025, per OverTheCap.com. They are scheduled to eat $48.7 million in dead space in 2026, but that doesn’t include tens of millions in void-year charges that will hit the books if/when Taysom, Jordan and others finally retire. Click here for some semi-outdated cap-related Saints roasting.
Bottom Line
Abandon all hope, ye who enter the ninth plane of cap hell.
New York Giants
The story so far
The Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston signings indicate that the Giants are finally running out of their own terrible ideas but have decided to borrow some from other franchises.
Administration
Brian Daboll lost the locker room for good circa Daniel Jones’ release last year, but John Mara kept him around because he enjoys watching his staff go full zombie apocalypse on itself. General manager Joe Schoen is busily untethering himself from Daboll in the name of job preservation, knowing Mara likes to fire decision-makers in stages rather than executing clean regime changes (see previous sentence). Mike Kafka is a clever game-planner that Daboll likes to use as a human shield when things go wrong. There is a 0.0% chance that the non-Mara individuals named in this paragraph will still be employed by the Week 13 bye.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson is the geezer gunslinger and reluctant mentor. Jaxson Dart satisfies Mara’s creepy Eli Manning lookalike fetish. Jameis Winston has somehow rebranded himself as an adorable screw-up. Tommy DeVito appears to still be on the roster, or perhaps he’s just driving DoorDash along the Route 3 corridor and ends up at team headquarters a lot.
Offense
Malik Nabers is gonna end up catching 10 passes for 45 yards each week as the Giants force-feed him short passes that the entire defense knows are coming.
Defense
Abdul Carter, Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence will generate a bunch of sacks each week, at least until opponents take a 17-3 lead midway through the second quarter and stop taking any offensive risks.
Random Fact
The Giants offensive line allowed the worst caused-pressure rate (28.0%) in the NFL in 2023 and the third-worst rate (25.4%) last year. The Giants addressed their offensive line in the offseason by making no changes but getting both much older and more mistake-prone AND younger and less experienced simultaneously at quarterback.
Bottom Line
Giants history repeated itself as tragedy and has now moved on to farce.
Philadelphia Eagles
The story so far
The Eagles won their second Super Bowl in eight years, then held onto most of their key players in free agency. Eagles fans had so little to complain about over the last seven months that some of my neighbors got all stopped up and exploded.
Administration
Howie Roseman plays the trade market and salary cap the way Jimi Hendrix played guitar. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is too cool to blitz. Owner Jeffrey Lurie has mastered the art of benign meddling. Nick Sirianni stands around with a blank expression on his face and absorbs criticism: a very important job in Philly.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts locks on to his primary receiver, doesn’t see the middle of the field well, takes too many sacks and does other things that make the tape experts cringe. He has also led the Eagles to a 52-23 record in the regular season and playoffs, plus two Super Bowls, with three different coordinators. Gosh, I’m starting to think toughness, leadership and all those other intangibles might actually mean something!
Offense
Saquon Barkley. A.J. Brown. More Saquon. DeVonta Smith. MOAR SAQUON. A formidable line headlined by Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata. SAAAAAQUOOOOOOONNNN. Dallas Goedert. Saquonsaquonsaquonsaquonsaquon.
New coordinator Kevin Patullo worked his way up through Sirianni’s ranks and knows which side his bread is Saquoned on.
Defense
Jalen Carter is one of the NFL’s best defensive tackles and may still be improving. Zack Baun was a come-from-nowhere superstar last year. Cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean figured out Fangio’s complex coverage schemes as rookies and should get even better with experience.
Random Fact
The Eagles attempted 40 official quarterback sneaks last year, Brotherly Shove or otherwise. They converted 32 of them, or exactly 80%, which is roughly the league average success rate for sneaks over the last decade. No other team attempted more than 28 sneaks in 2024. So maybe the problem is not that the “Tush Push” is a money play that needs to be outlawed for player safety/aesthetic/REAL FOOTBALL reasons, but that other coaches don’t like being exposed for outsmarting themselves by calling other plays in short-yardage situations.
Bottom Line
The Eagles suffered a bunch of rank-and-file free agent departures and retirements. They may also miss Kellen Moore, who kept Sirianni and Hurts from falling into an offensive rut last year. But the only people who don’t consider the Eagles Super Bowl shortlisters are their most dedicated haters and their even-more-dedicated, perpetually-pessimistic fans.
San Francisco 49ers
The story so far
The 49ers were about a quarter of the way through a burn-it-down rebuild this offseason when they changed their minds, slammed on the brakes, drove home and started writing checks.
Administration
Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant game-planner and solid developer of talent whose brain turns into Honey Bunches of Oats in high-leverage situations.
John Lynch has finally stopped digging in his heels and ticking off key veterans until turning into Money Vesuvius at the last possible minute: the Niners paid their veterans reasonable amounts on an accelerated timetable this offseason.
Robert Saleh returns from Jets exile as defensive coordinator. Klay Kubiak is Shanahan’s offensive majordomo, and I am starting to wonder about Gary Kubiak’s insistence on giving his sons first names that begin with “K.”
Quarterback
Take the arithmetic mean of what his overenthusiastic boosters think of him and what his closed-minded skeptics think of him, and you get Brock Purdy’s actual skill level and value.
Offense
Everyone is either getting a little old, coming off an injury, making a little too much money or some combination of the three. But “everyone” includes Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Kyle Juszczyk, so …
Defense
Nick Bosa and Fred Warner return to lead an impressive crop of rookies who were drafted to replace last year’s injury cases.
Random Fact
The 49ers led the NFL by a wide margin with 141.2 Adjusted Games Lost due to injuries in 2024. Everyone knows the 49ers had injury issues last year, but when making predictions it’s important to distinguish “injury issues” from “crippling, league-leading, season-long crisis.”
Bottom Line
Lots of sportstalk types got swept up in the “rebuilding” storyline when Deebo Samuel left, issued boilerplate “overpaid” position statements about Purdy’s contract and have lost sight of how many core players from a 12-win conference championship are still on the roster and at or near their primes. Over 10.5 wins at +105 feels like a lock. Over 12.5 at +370 is perfectly reasonable if you are a speculator or a superfan.
Seattle Seahawks
The story so far
The Seahawks purposely downgraded their roster this offseason and are hoping everyone is too polite to mention it. They aren’t rebuilding, mind you: they didn’t get much younger or cheaper. Just weaker. They’re the Dolphins of the Pacific Northwest, but boring.
Administration
John Schneider hits enough home runs in the draft to offset his many strikeouts. Mike Macdonald is probably good at something, but it is unclear what that might be. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak (see 49ers segment) looked like an offensive genius for two weeks at the start of last year. Then it turned out that the Panthers and Cowboys just stunk.
Quarterback
Sam Darnold is Geno Smith 2.0, except that the Vikings enjoyed Darnold’s surprise comeback last year, so the Seahawks have now signed on for his disappointing encore.
Offense
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are out at wide receiver. Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are in. Seriously: the Seahawks went out of their way to make that happen. Fortunately for Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba took over Lockett’s former role as the reliable all-purpose threat last year.
First-round guard Grey Zabel is the only addition to an offensive line that collapsed due to injuries last year, and Zabel replaces one of the guys (Laken Tomlinson) who stayed healthy.
Defense
Name a current Seahawks defender. Any of them. No, Poona Ford has been gone for years. Try again!
Let me help you out, since that’s my job and the reason for this whole essay. Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen are fine cornerbacks. Leonard Williams and Tank Lawrence would form excellent anchors for a defensive line in 2021. Byron Murphy had some splashy moments as a rookie. But really, this unit could be called the Legion of Whom?
Random Stat
The Seahawks catapulted all the way up to 23rd in the NFL in red-zone offensive DVOA in 2024 after ranking in the bottom five in 2022 and 2023. And they may have been overrated at 23rd; statistics can not capture just how ridiculous some of Smith’s mishaps and the team’s play-calls looked when they approached the goal line.
Bottom Line
Remember when the Seahawks had an identity and a personality? DangeRuss? The Legion? Pete Carroll’s infectious rah-rah shtick? Beast Mode? Those were the days. The Seahawks now try to bland their opponents into submission.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The story so far
The post-Tom Brady Bucs are like a classic rock band that has been touring without its original lead singer for so long that we’ve gotten used to their new sound and come to admire their perseverance. We’d totally go see them at the State Fair. But we ain’t buying a ticket to the stadium show.
Administration
Unlike many blitz-happy defensive mayhem junkies, Todd Bowles doesn’t show utter contempt for his quarterback and offense. Bowles’ offensive coordinators keep leaving for head coaching gigs as a result. Josh Grizzard the Wizard Lizard takes over for Liam Coen, who took over for Dave Canales last year, who took over for Byron Leftwich in 2023. Each coordinator was a little better than the last, and Bowles is hoping for five big booms from The Grizzler.
GM Jason Licht is the Beethoven of the veteran contract extension.
Quarterback
Either you die a draft bust/cautionary tale, or you live long enough to become the gritty, easy-to-root-for survivor like Baker Mayfield.
Offense
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have Super Bowl rings, Pro Bowl pedigrees and freshly-extended contracts. Cade Otton is the best tight end no one talks about. Bucky Irving looks like the young Brian Mitchell. The offensive line is a Ship of Theseus version of the one that blocked for Tom Brady. Yet people still treat the Bucs as some non-serious playoff team.
Defense
Lavonte David is the Mike Evans of the defense. Vita Vea is the Godwin. Or maybe he is two or three Godwins; he’s a large fellow. There’s blitzing. Lots of blitzing. Perpetually-dissatisfied free-agent acquisition Haason Reddick showed up at mandatory minicamp, to the surprise of everyone. Maybe he took a wrong turn looking for the Dali Museum or something.
Random Stat
Per FTN, the Buccaneers rushed five defenders on 31.6% of pass plays in 2024, the highest figure in the NFL. Bowles’ favorite blitzer was David, of course (135 pass rushes, per Sports Info Solutions), with Tykee Smith (51 rushes) filling in for injured Antoine Winfield (35) as the top blitzer from the secondary.
Bottom Line
Another year, another automatic tournament bid for winning the Sun Belt Conference, perhaps another playoff win, then a loss at the hands of one of the conference powerhouses. Is this agony or ecstasy? Probably a little of both. Which is better than a lot of neither.
Washington Commanders
The story so far
Have the Commanders really gotten smarter? Or has the rest of society gotten dumber while the Commanders managed to stay the same?
Administration
Adam Peters is a bold trader, shrewd free-agent shopper and (so far) a highly successful drafter. Dan Quinn runs a tight ship, just as he did in Atlanta. Kliff Kingsbury has cut down on the pregame vodka-and-Red Bulls and no longer tries to empty his entire playbook on every drive. I don’t trust any of these guys not to backslide, mind you, but the Commanders currently look like an organization with all the answers.
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels mixes playground creativity with surprisingly advanced game-managerial skills. He was one of the best rookie quarterbacks in history in 2024, by any measure. Only the grouchiest pessimist would remind readers that there will likely be some bumps in the road for Daniels this year. There will likely be some bumps in the road for Daniels this year. So I won’t do it.
Offense
Kingsbury’s playbook still includes every topping at the froyo shop. Daniels keeps it from getting mushy and gross. Newcomer Deebo Samuel is the candied walnuts. Terry McLaurin wants a new contract; Peters used to work for the 49ers and will therefore get around to serious negotiations as soon as one of the team’s most important and respected players is really ticked off and the whole affair has become a clubhouse distraction.
Defense
Quinn was saddled with a Legion of Gloom secondary last year. New arrivals Jonathan Jones, rookie Trey Amos and Marshon Lattimore (a banged-up late-2024 addition) should help matters, though there is still no marquee edge rusher.
Random Fact
Daniels scrambled an NFL-high 72 times last season, 23 more times than Bo Nix. Daniels gained 579 yards and generated 32 first downs on scrambles, both league highs. Daniels needs to cut down on his scramble rate in 2025 but … does he really?
Bottom Line
The Commanders are doing everything right, and it’s freakin’ weird to watch. They’re built for another 11-12 wins and a deep playoff run. What a difference replacing a human-shaped clump of canine feces in the owner’s box with a garden-variety ultra-rich dillweed makes!
Coming in a few days: the AFC portion of the Walkthrough Giant-Sized Annual!
This is what I come here for: more snark than my teenage daughter, more obscure references than an Aesop Rock B-side. Never change, Mike.
I just had my first child a couple months ago and reading legion of whom and chucking replaced all my shoes in the house with new balance