The Epic Two-Month, 13-team NFL Battle for Seventh Place

Teams like the Bengals, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Colts, Packers and more are scrambling for a handful of remaining playoff slots. Find out who has the edge.

There are eight NFL teams that have already all-but clinched playoff berths. The Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders all entered Week 11 with a better-than-90% chance of reaching the postseason, per the DVOA-fueled analysis at FTN Fantasy. The results of Thursday night’s Eagles-Commanders game will skew the percentages a bit, but not much.

There are 11 teams that are already all-but eliminated from the playoffs. The Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets and Tennessee Titans all have a less than 5% chance of reaching the postseason. Their moneylines to reach the playoffs range from +900 (Jets schmuckbait) to +7500 (Panthers/Raiders).

That leaves 13 NFL teams competing for six playoff berths. For two months. 

The Vikings and Falcons have a greater than 80% chance of reaching the playoffs. The Seahawks’ playoff odds are a thready 7.7%. So it’s really more like 10 teams competing for four playoff spots: the NFC West crown, one NFC Wild Card berth and two Wild Card berths in the AFC once the Steelers or Ravens claim their consolation prize. But let’s be generous and cast a wide net: get ready for an eight-week, 13-middleweight Battle Royale for the right to fill out the postseason undercard!

Seen that way, Sunday’s Broncos-Falcons, Seahawks-49ers and Bengals-Chargers games are much more compelling than Chiefs-Bills or Ravens-Steelers. The powerhouses are just jockeying for seeding. The also-rans are fighting for their lives.

So who are these 13 playoff hopefuls? What are their chances? What are they good at? What do they stink at? Does anyone really read the final sentence or two of an introduction when they can see that team-by-team segments are coming? If so, thanks. If not, on to the team-by-team segments, in alphabetical order. Moneylines are from DraftKings on Wednesday. Probabilities are from FTN Fantasy.

Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

Playoff Probability: 54.9%

Playoff Moneyline: -150

Attitude If They Reach the Playoffs: “Wait, we did what now?”

Greatest Advantage: An offensive line, anchored by left tackle Paris Johnson, that rivals the Eagles and Lions lines when it comes to run blocking.

Greatest Disadvantage: Name a Cardinals defender whose initials are not “B.B.” without sneaking a peak at their roster. Betcha can’t.

The Skinny: The 49ers will try to stab the Cardinals in the back if they remain a threat to win the NFC West. Actually, 49ers players will probably end up stabbing each other in the back if the Cardinals remain a threat to win the NFC West. Why am I suddenly rooting for the Cardinals?

Don’t be surprised if the Cardinals are still in the race when they face the 49ers in the season finale. Kyler Murray and company are better than their reputation.

Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

Playoff Probability: 80.7%

Playoff Moneyline: -1000

Attitude If They Reach the Playoffs: “This validates the decision to sign Kirk Cousins. It absolutely does. Please tell us that it does. We crave validation more than oxygen.”

Greatest Advantage: Cousins leads a beautifully-balanced offense featuring Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, a stout line and (mentioned mostly for SEO purposes) Kyle Pitts.

Greatest Disadvantage: The Falcons defense has recorded just nine sacks. Their pressure rate of 27.6%, per Sports Info Solutions, is the fourth-lowest in the NFL.

The Skinny: The Falcons made life much harder on themselves by losing to the Saints last week. There is meat on the bone of a +650 wager for them to miss the playoffs, for all of you doomers/haters/realists out there. But the Falcons are 6-2 in the NFC, 4-1 in their division, have swept the Buccaneers (their toughest divisional challenger) and play the Raiders, Giants and Panthers late in the season. They should win the NFC South, if only by default. They are far too good on paper and on offense to merely win by default, but these are the damn Falcons we are talking about.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-6)

Playoff Probability: 31.9%

Playoff Moneyline: +130

Attitude If They Reach the Playoffs: “Haha, we’re the team no one wants to face, right? Not really? Oh well. See you next October. Yes, we said October.”

Greatest Advantage: Joe Burrow. Ja’Marr Chase. Trey Hendrickson. Tee Higgins when healthy.

Greatest Disadvantage: Zach Taylor. Pretty much everyone else.

The Skinny: The Bengals may think they’re the 49ers of the AFC: the perennial contender that slumbered through (another) pokey start. They are really the 2022-23 Cowboys of the AFC: a top-heavy paper tiger (heh) reliant on a handful of superstars to cover for a so-so bottom 80% of the roster and uninspired leadership. Their four wins have come against the Panthers, Giants, Browns and Raiders, four teams with a combined 9-26 record. It’s a bad sign when the Panthers have the best record among the teams you have beaten. 

Sunday’s visit to the Chargers is a must-win affair for the Bengals: not only are their backs to the wall, but they must simply prove that they can beat a quality opponent. 

Denver Broncos (5-5)

Playoff Probability: 53.0%

Playoff Moneyline: +185

Attitude If They Reach the Playoffs: “Has it really been nine years? Holy f**king s**t!” 

Greatest Advantage: The fastest, most aggressive defense south of I-90.

Greatest Disadvantage: Bo Nix may have earned a field promotion from Leftenant Beauregard Sideways to Capitaine Beaugeste Ordinaire (he also changed nationalities, whatever), but the Broncos offense remains a paint-by-numbers scheme better suited to not losing games than outright winning them.