Three NFL Teams at the Crossroads

The Steelers are either having a moment of clarity or a midlife crisis. The Rams just lost a legend. And the Saints are no strangers to Faustian bargains.

No one can complain about the same-old stay-the-course Pittsburgh Steelers anymore.

Russell Wilson is the pilot of the astral plane. Arthur Smith is the innovator of the Rube Goldberg Device Offense. Justin Fields is the distilled essence of the dual-threat quarterback who cannot cut it in the NFL, an entity brought to life by the fevered imaginations and unwavering preconceptions of a million grumpy Facebook uncles.

The Steelers have not assembled a quarterback room; this is a Spanish study group at a community college. Mike Tomlin is the dean. 

Also, the only wide receiver of note in Pittsburgh is George Pickens, who spent last year huffing the Joker toxin that turns Steelers receivers into Batman villains. The Steelers traded Diontae Johnson away but added Van Jefferson, the receiver a team gets when it doesn’t know what kind of receiver it wants. Smith acquired Jefferson for the Falcons last season but could not figure out what to do with him, which is a bad sign, because Smith believes he can and should build a nuclear reactor out of toothpicks.

The Steelers acquired Fields from the Bears this weekend in exchange for a 2025 day three draft pick: a fourth-rounder if Fields starts for more than half the season; a sixth rounder otherwise. The Steelers also traded Kenny Pickett to the Eagles in exchange for the right to move up 22 spots from the mid-fourth to late-third round.  Both moves illustrated the difference between a failed quarterback prospect’s name recognition and his actual market value.

Pickett, to extend an earlier metaphor, might as well have been custom-built from the dreams and desires of those same Facebook uncles. As a hometown college hero and central-casting pocket-bound white guy, Pickett arrived pre-bundled with a leadership/poise reputation which, as is often the case, was simply shorthand for he’s not that impressive, so he must be great at invisible things.

The Steelers organization, with the willing support of the local media, worked very hard last season to prop Pickett up as a paragon of intangible virtues. Tomlin defended Pickett with ever-more tortured logic each week as the Steelers offense collapsed into a quantum singularity of two-yard completions on third-and-15; you could almost hear the vertebrae in Tomlin’s spine crack as he stuck out his neck ever further. 

Then Mason Rudolph replaced the injured Pickett (with Mitch Trubisky in between), the entire Steelers offense responded as if it had rigid casts removed from both its legs, and Pickett (reportedly) responded to what became a benching by acting like a middle schooler who just had his PS5 privileges taken away.

Meanwhile, Fields’ point-of-no-return moment in Chicago was probably the fourth quarter of the Bears’ Week 15 loss to the Joe Flacco-led Browns. The final six Bears possessions in that game netted 28 yards and zero points, allowing the Browns to slowly come back from a 17-7 deficit.

A few weeks earlier, Fields fumbled twice in the fourth quarter, nearly costing the Bears what became a 12-10 victory over the Josh Dobbs-led Vikings. While Pickett was incapable of doing anything except squeezing out late-game drives for 20-16 victories over subpar opponents, Fields could only move his offense on carefully-scripted early-game drives or improvised splash plays. He was nearly useless at the ends of close games, and the Bears could no longer pretend not to notice by season’s end.

Hmm, maybe the Steelers should have passed on Wilson, traded for Fields as their starter and used Pickett as a late-game closer. Smith could concoct two separate game plans each week. A win-win-win!

Forgive me. I went on a Saturday pub crawl and it takes about 48 hours to recover at my age.

Fields remains popular among fans who evaluate quarterbacks based on viral highlights and Madden ratings. Pickett remains popular among fans who write letters-to-the-editor about women wearing yoga pants in public and non-white Disney princesses. Both Fields and Pickett read defenses about as well as I read Latin, though Fields gets more flak for it. The Steelers chose Fields’ raw talent over Pickett’s limited virtues, but the depressed market for their services indicates that NFL teams have little interest in overpaying for some other franchise’s failed ambitions. Which brings us back to Wilson. 

The good news for Wilson and Fields is that the safe-mode beta version of Smith’s offense is a mix of handoffs, old-school play-action tactics and zone-read wrinkles. A one-read-and-take-off quarterback who can connect downfield with that one read or gain chunk yardage after taking off can do damage in the Titans version of Smith’s scheme. The glitchy Paradox 4X version of Smith’s scheme, on the other hand, boils down to doing the exact opposite of anything that makes sense, so both Wilson and Fields could actually benefit from tuning their coach out and playing schoolyard ball if Smith is still having the sandworm visions that plagued him in Atlanta.  

Smith may also see Fields as a Wildcat or Slash player. Heck, Smith could see Fields as a nose tackle. Having watched their team fail to execute routine rollout tosses to their tight ends last season, Steelers fans should be open-minded about anything at this point.

Wilson has a 99.9% chance of being the opening-day starter if healthy, but I think the Steelers need to foster real competition between Wilson and Fields. Wilson could respond to a true challenge by acting like a more traditional leader/employee/humanoid. Fields is only going to have a lightbulb moment if there’s a chance that it will matter.

Tomlin is savvy about motivating oddballs, and while anything he says about “competition” may sound like lip service, remember that we all thought we’d be stuck watching Pickett-versus-Rudolph again. Tomlin is not above shaking things up when necessary, or at least about three months after necessary. 

In the end, Wilson probably won’t rebound, nor is Fields likely to be more than a scrambling backup-for-hire for the rest of his career. Still, the Steelers owed themselves and their fans a little outside-the-box thinking. Something’s gonna happen in Pittsburgh. Even if that “something” is a complete collapse, it will not have cost the Steelers much money or draft capital, and it certainly won’t result from a lack of effort or imagination.

The Crossroads Between Rebuilding Street and Contender Ave.

Later in the week, Too Deep Zone will release the 2024 NFL Free Agency Performance Assessments.

The report cards will probably be split in half: the first half for all subscribers, the second half for premium subscribers. Thursday and Friday are my target publish dates. They will be incomplete, because free agency continues through the summer, but all grades, even that 4.0 GPA I rocked by acing Calculus II and PASCAL Programming (plus some humanities stuff) in 1989, are merely snapshots of a moment in time.

When assessing how teams fared in free agency, it’s helpful to sort them into four categories:

Contenders: Teams that only need to keep their cores intact or fill very specific needs to remain on the Super Bowl short list. 

The 49ers’ offseason to-do list this year is essentially “try again.” The Bills needed to perform a controlled salary-cap burn. The Chiefs sought a difference-making veteran receiver. All three teams had productive early offseasons, though for different reasons. The Cowboys, on the other hand …

Risers: Teams that need to add a major “missing piece” or two to leap into the Super Bowl conversation. 

The Lions added D.J. Reader. The Falcons belong here because of the Kirk Cousins signing. The Packers are in this “risers” category but appear to have moved laterally in free agency, which will impact their performance assessment.

Rebuilders: These lowly teams need to add talent, ideally to meet some objective that’s more focused than just “getting better.” 

The Commanders added about 40 new guys, some of whom are certainly difference makers. The Patriots took a much less flashy approach, re-signing players (particularly on defense) who are still fairly young and effective. The Panthers, in a bold strategy, got rid of their handful of quality young starters, which should help them gain entry to the ACC, where their remaining players can earn some NIL money. 

Crossroads: Teams with unclear offseason needs/objectives, often because their contention window is closing or some bold move of the past did not work out as planned. 

The Eagles are ostensibly contenders but are installing new schemes, lost a pair of legends to retirement and needed to disinfect the locker room a bit. The Jets are enjoying that distraction-free offseason Aaron Rodgers promised. The Seahawks keep banging their head into a ceiling that’s painted 49ers gold-and-red.

Crossroads teams risk doing too much, too little or the flat-out wrong thing in free agency. Often, they fool themselves into thinking they are contenders when they are not. That’s what makes them so fascinating this time of year.

Again: you will have to wait for Thursday for further elaboration. We are only focusing on three crossroads teams today. You just met the Steelers. Let’s meet two others.

Rams at the Speed of Sound

Aaron Donald’s retirement marks the end of the Win-This-Instant, F**k ‘em Picks, Stars ‘n’ Scrubs Forever Los Angeles Rams.

The win-now Rams were born when Matthew Stafford joined Donald, Jalen Ramsey and Cooper Kupp in 2021. They did, indeed, win “now.”

Then came a 2022 Super Bowl hangover that bordered on alcohol poisoning. The Rams survived that experience and rode a strong 2023 draft class and a 7-1 finish to a playoff berth last year. Despite the turnaround, the Rams didn’t retool their roster or philosophy much last year. Instead, Puka Nacua advanced instantaneously from fifth-round “scrub” to star, while Stafford bounced back a little from an injury-plagued 2022, the Rams caught lots of opponents like the Commanders and Giants late in the year, and Donald remained Donald.

With Donald gone, Ramsey long gone, Kupp in decline and Stafford back in his familiar spot near the top of the second quartile of starting quarterbacks, the Rams are no longer dominated by “stars.” Instead, they are a young-nucleus team headlined by Nacua, Kobie Turner, Byron Young, Ernest Jones, Kyren Williams, Steve Avila and a few others. The Rams’ new goal is to build another Super Bowl contender before Stafford’s decline begins, if it has not already begun.

The Rams are no longer in a cap coma, because they saved money last year by filling their entire bench with players on late-round rookie or UDFA contracts. They were therefore able to spend aggressively last week: re-signing guard Kevin Dotson; adding fellow guard Jonah Jackson, tight end Colby Parkinson and safety Kamren Curl; and bringing back cornerback Darious Williams after two seasons with the Jaguars. 

Avila will probably move to center in what looks like a sturdy offensive line. Parkinson’s arrival might mean Sean McVay wants to tinker with more two-tight end packages, which haven’t been his jam in the past. Curl replaces Jordan Fuller in what looks like an even swap at safety. Williams is a known commodity who could be a modest upgrade over Ahkello Witherspoon, who played over his head for much of last year. 

The Rams lost Fuller and linebacker Earnest Brown IV, but they gained more than they lost, at least on the free agent market.

(A quick note: the Rams insisted on filling their 2023 roster with name-cycles like Earnest Brown IV, Bobby Brown III and Ernest Jones, as well as Kobie Turner and Cobie Durant, plus one of the NFL’s two second-year defenders named Byron Young. I low-key hate them for this.)

All of the additions made the Rams look like stealth contenders for a few days. Sure, the 49ers have a far superior roster. But if the 49ers were to stumble – they enjoyed remarkable health among their top-tier starters last year, after all – the Rams would be right there with stout offensive/defensive fronts, a veteran quarterback, the Puka-Cooper punch and Mike Shanahan’s true favorite son running the show. 

Forget all of that now. Donald is irreplaceable. His 65 pass pressures in 2023 ranked second to Chris Jones among defensive tackles. His 37 hits on quarterbacks ranked first. Yes, Donald generated extra pressure by playing all over the defensive front, but that illustrates the point. 

The Rams defensive line currently consists of Turner, Bobbie Brown, Desjuan Johnson (not to be confused with free agent John Johnson III, this damn team) and Corey Durden. That’s like a band consisting of Denny Laine, Geoff Britton, Joe English and Linda McCartney. Someone REALLY important is missing. 

(Wings had a guy named Britton, a guy named English and guys named Henry McCullough and Jimmy McCulloch at various points in the 1970s. The two McCartneys were, of course, unavoidable. Still, they were the 2023 Rams of their era.)

The Rams now possess a first-round pick for the first time since Band on the Run was released, so they could draft an edge or a defensive tackle in early rounds. Or both. Both would be great. Or a wide receiver in case Kupp’s fade accelerates and/or Demarcus Robinson goes back to the unreliable ways which defined the first seven-eighths of his career.

The Rams can fill their many vacancies quickly and effectively if they draft the way they did last year, but such success is hard to replicate. The feeling that the Rams could at least push to the top of the Wild Card picture in 2024 is gone now that Donald is gone.

Still, the Rams forecast could be much gloomier.

Donald leaves behind a fabulous legacy: a championship, a second conference title, three Defensive Player of the Year awards and nearly a decade as the best player on an era-defining perennial contender. He also helped drag the Rams back to relevance: the rookie defenders developed quickly because of both Donald’s example and his ability to attract most of the opponent’s attention.

Donald will be missed, but his retirement will keep the Rams from living in the past. That will help the organization in the long run, because no team can really rely on the stars and scrubs model forever.

The Saints, the Devil and the Details

There’s an old episode of Night Gallery – Rod Serling’s lesser-known/loved reboot of The Twilight Zone – in which a hippie played by John Astin (most famous as Gomez Addams) finds himself in a waiting room filled with the biggest squares on earth. The hippie soon realizes that he died and deduces that he is waiting for eternal judgment. He further guesses that said judgment probably won’t go in his favor. While he waits for a final ruling on his torment, the squares keep acting more unpleasant and boring while the same old-timey song plays over and over on a Victrola. 

Have you guessed the twist? Of course you have, because you read No Exit in the 11th grade: the hippie is already in hell (bum-bum-BUM) and the waiting room full of squares is his eternal punishment! 

You have also guessed how the Saints tie into all of this. They have not been waiting to get thrown into cap hell for three years. They have been in cap hell for three years. Sartre himself said that cap hell is other people, and those people look like Taysom Hill and Derek Carr.

The Saints achieved cap compliance in their traditional way last week. They extended Derek Carr, coming off a disappointing and injury-marred season. Carr’s 2025 cap hit is now $51.5 million. They extended Demario Davis, coming off a fine season; Davis now has void years extending through 2029, when he will be 40 years old. They restructured Cam Jordan’s contract after a two-sack age-34 season, though they showed some restraint by not backloading as much bonus money as they could have. The Saints know Jordan began fading in 2022 and want to be in position to stop paying him by around 2027. 

The Saints were able to do some modest free agent shopping – receiver Cedrick Wilson, linebacker Malcolm Roach – but they cut Michael Thomas outright (he’s been dead weight for four years) and will likely lose Marcus Maye this week. They did a fine job keeping their roster intact, but: 

• It’s an aging roster that couldn’t make the playoffs in the NFL’s worst division in 2023; and 

• The Saints are now $60 million in cap debt in 2025, which means they will be playing the same game of credit card roulette next offseason.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are extending younger/better players for less money after coming off a division title, and the Falcons just ensured a modicum (and only a modicum) of success by signing Kirk Cousins.

The Saints have been mismanaging the salary cap with such verve and aplomb for so long that I ran out of jokes about it sometime last year. The organization has also worn out many of the Cap-is-Fake analysts who used to cheerlead for them this time of year. At some point, it stops being funny, or even informative, to point out that a team has positioned itself to pay $47 million over the next two years for the tail end of Alvin Kamara’s decline.

The Saints, like your debt-extended in-laws, will be able to muddle along in semi-comfortable mediocrity unless there’s an emergency: all the 30-somethings getting old in the Saints’ case, a brief job interruption in your in-laws’ case. In both circumstances, it’s mean-spirited to wish for such an emergency to occur, even if you think the individuals involved really need to learn a lesson. 

Saints offseasons used to at least feature splashy coups: Maye, Tyrann Mathieu and Jarvis Landry in 2022, Carr and Jimmy Graham for some reason last year. There was always a chance that those moves would at least catapult the Saints to a Sun Belt Conference championship, though it never happened.

The Saints may still have a surprise in the works, though it might be something like trading all of their draft picks for Haason Reddick or bringing back Pierre Thomas. It’s more likely that this is it, however: the Saints won’t do much more than gobble back up some of the in-house free agents that other teams have not pursued. Even the thrill of beating the salary cap is gone. The Saints are close to abandoning all hope.

You can only stay one step ahead of the devil for so long. Eventually, even the most unrepentant sinners give up. And that’s when they realize that they were in hell all along.