Ultimate Quarterback Stat Pack: Jayden Daniels Rules

Dive deep into the stats and splits for Daniels, Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy, Drake Maye and others to discover hidden secrets and learn whose scouting reports may be filled with helium.

LSU’s Jaden Daniels produced the most impressive deep passing statistics of the last decade in 2023. 

Daniels completed 53-of-79 passes of 15-plus air yards for 1,783 yards, 24 touchdowns and just one interception. His completion rate of 67.1% on deep passes led the nation. Don’t let your eyes gloss over that number: a completion percentage of 67.1% would be impressive on all passes, including screens and dump-offs. For deep passes, it’s beyond exceptional. 

Daniels’ Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) of 28.1 were 34.4% higher than the second-place figure (20.9) of USC’s Caleb Williams.

Here are the 2023 deep passing statistics for the major quarterback prospects in the 2024 NFL draft. All stats in this feature come from Sports Info Solutions.

Passes of 15-plus Air Yards, 2023

Jayden Daniels: 53-of-79 (67.1%), 1783 yards, 24 TD, 1 INT, 28.1 ANY/A

Caleb Williams: 47-of-86 (54.7%), 1612 yards, 16 TD, 3 INT, 20.9 ANY/A

Bo Nix: 44-of-78 (56.4%), 1,420 yards, 14 TD, 3 INT, 20.1 ANY/A

Drake Maye: 63-of-122 (51.6%), 1884 yards, 15 TD, 4 INT, 16.4 ANY/A

J.J. McCarthy: 47-of-87 (54.0%), 1,145 yards, 12 TD, 2 INT, 14.9 ANY/A

Michael Penix: 72-of-150 (48.0%), 2,186 yards, 18 TDs, 8 INT, 14.6 ANY/A

Spencer Rattler: 35-of-74 (47.3%), 1,081 yards, 7 TD, 6 INT, 12.9 ANY/A

Jordan Travis: 28-of-85 (32.9%), 831 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 10.7 ANY/A

South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler and Florida State’s Jordan Travis will appear throughout this feature’s tables as a kind of control group to illustrate what a lower-tier prospect’s stats typically look like. Rattler and Travis are a clear notch below the others in this category. 

Daniels attempted just 327 total passes in 2023. Washington’s Michael Penix led the nation with 555 attempts. Naturally, there is a wide disparity in their raw deep-passing numbers. But Daniels threw for just 403 fewer yards in a little more than half as many attempts! And Penix was among the nation’s best-regarded deep passers.

Penix’s eight interceptions on deep passes nerf his ANY/A and should give draft analysts pause. No one else besides Daniels really sticks out. Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and Oregon’s Bo Nix, the purported dink-and-dunkers of this draft class, have competitive deep-passing numbers.

Here are the highest ANY/A figures for deep passes (minimum 50 passes of 15-plus air yards) in the Sports Info Solutions database since 2016:

Jayden Daniels, 2023: 67.1% completion rate, 28.1 ANY/A

Mac Jones, 2020: 61.8% completion rate, 24.2 ANY/A

Joe Burrow, 2019: 61.2% completion rate, 23.2 ANY/A

Mike White, 2015: 52.0% completion rate, 22.8 ANY/A

Grayson McCall, 2021: 63.3% completion rate, 22.7 ANY/A

Sam Howell, 2020: 50.6% completion rate, 21.1 ANY/A

If we focus on completion rate – a useful metric for accuracy when discussing only deep passes – Daniels posted the highest figure on record in 2023. The only rates over 60% in the database: Coastal Carolina’s Grayson McCall in 2019; Mac Jones at Alabama in 2020, Joe Burrow at LSU in 2019 (all listed above), Nix in 2022 (61.4%) and Matt Corral at Ole Miss in 2021 (60.0%).

Daniels’ eye-popping deep-passing figures in the SEC, coupled with his scrambling ability and measurables, are enough to clearly make him a better overall prospect than Drake Maye. In fact, these figures make me wonder if he is a better overall prospect than Williams.

We’re about to hit the premium subscriber paywall, dear reader. But there’s much more of the Ultimate Quarterback Stat Pack to come, including:

• Passing statistics when pressured;

• Third down passes past the sticks;

• Sacks and sack rates; 

• Passes over the middle; and

• Some scrambling/rushing data.

It’s information you can use! Plus, a paid subscription gets you the Too Deep Draft Assessments in three weeks and much more, including Walkthrough – the Most Respected, Least Respectable NFL Column on the Internet – starting in August.