Undefeated. And it Feels So Brief.
Chargers fullbacks, Seahawks safeties, the Kuppization of Chris Godwin and other tales from less-than-likely 1-0 teams.
It’s Week 1, and 16 teams get to feel good about themselves. Temporarily.
Surprise ‘Em With a Victory Cry
The Seattle Seahawks are the Team Without a Storyline. They are coached by [generically-named Harbaugh lieutenant] and quarterbacked by [affable journeyman placeholder]. Their top playmakers are [same guys from previous years], with a young defense spearheaded by [unremarkable B-tier prospects].
The Seahawks barely made the playoffs at 9-8 in 2022 and barely missed the playoffs at 9-8 in 2023. They’re projected to either barely make or miss the playoffs at between 8-9 and 9-8 in 2024.
The current Seahawks stand in the shadow of both the Legion of Boom era and the post-Legion Russell-Wilson-at-Versailles era, as well as the conference powerhouse/divisional rival 49ers, who somehow look better than ever. The Seahawks are anonymous and easy to overlook, not bad enough to roast nor good enough to wedge into a Super Bowl conversation. They’re an odd team to focus on, which is what drew me to them in the aftermath of Week 1.
The Seahawks won a 26-20 game over the Denver Broncos in which they suffered two safeties, threw an interception on their second play from scrimmage and muffed a punt at their own 10-yard line. They won in large part because they faced rookie quarterback Leftenant Beauregard Sideways, whose air yards were measured in angry inches. Two Seahawks safeties and two deep-in-their-territory turnovers netted just 10 Broncos points, giving Geno Smith and his veteran playmakers plenty of comeback opportunities.
Two-safeties in one game by one team is a rare feat. It has happened just seven times this century. The teams that suffered two safeties are a surprising 3-4 since 2003:
John Skelton suffered a sack and a grounding penalty in the end zone against the Steve Spagnuolo Rams in 2011, but the Cardinals came back for a 19-13 victory on a late Larry Fitzgerald touchdown and an overtime punt return touchdown by Patrick Peterson. Victory notwithstanding, poor Skelton should have stepped out of the end zone. I am certain I made the same reference 13 years ago.
David Carr got sacked in the end zone by the 2003 Bills for a first-quarter safety, but the Texans mustered a 12-8 lead and ordered Andre Johnson to run backwards to kill the clock on the final play of the fourth quarter for a 12-10 victory.
Despite those semi-recent examples, teams that suffer two safeties in one game are 4-13 in the Super Bowl era. The last team to suffer two safeties in one game was the Trevor Siemien-helmed 2017 Broncos, who got rocked 35-9 by the Adam Gase/Jay Cutler fever-dream Miami Dolphins. Aaron Rodgers was once on the business end of two safeties (a sack and an illegal pass) in one loss, but that was in 2008, his first year as a starter. The list of teams that got knocked back into their own end zone twice in one game is not exactly teeming with Super Bowl winners.
The Seahawks almost suffered a third safety on Sunday. Kenneth Walker had to fight his way out of the end zone after a short toss from Smith, clambering to the two-yard line to prevent a catastrophe.
Only one team in the Super Bowl era has suffered three safeties in one game: the 1984 Giants, who had two punts blocked and endured one Phil Simms end-zone sack at the hands of a very good (Eric Dickerson, Jackie Slater, Jack Youngblood, many others) Rams team. Check it out:
The most quietly significant play of Sunday’s Seahawks victory may have been a Broncos punt that rolled into the end zone late in the third quarter. Given reasonable field position, the Seahawks were able to operate their offense smoothly and pull out of reach.
The Seahawks don’t look like a bad team. Mike McDonald’s defense did an outstanding job preventing YAC on swing passes, which is all they were asked to do. Ryan Grubb’s offense looks dynamic when not asked to travel 98 yards. Geno Smith is better than Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, the statue of Kirk Cousins the Falcons erected in their backfield and, certainly, Wilson.
The Seahawks may have routed the Broncos if not for a shaky start and a heavy field-position tilt. They currently rank fourth in the NFL in DVOA, which is not yet opponent adjusted. They should beat the Patriots next week. The Seahawks can remain in the playoff picture all year, especially with misfortune already nerfing the Packers and Rams and the Bears bracing for some real rookie growing pains.
Is that enough to make the Seahawks interesting? I’m not The Interesting Police. I just don’t want to sleep on a team that is likely to start the season 2-0 just because it lacks a story hook.
A Tale of Three Fullbacks
Jim Harbaugh made good on his threat to convert 296-pound second-year fullback Scott Matlock into a tight end. Matlock played tight end in the Los Angeles Chargers victory over the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. And defensive tackle. And fullback. Pro Football Focus claims he was split wide once. I didn’t see that, but Matlock was often in motion on offense and lined up on the edge at least once on defense.
Matlock was mostly dreadful. I won’t cite his PFF scores, because heaven only knows what they represent. Instead, I used the yummy new NFL+ Pro search tools to watch all of Matlock’s snaps. He did a serviceable job as a lead blocker a few times. He slipped and fell in front of Maxx Crosby once and whiffed on Crosby a second time; Harbaugh and Greg Roman seemed to think Matlock was some Crosby countermeasure, and they should really rethink that. Matlock once motioned to wham-block John Jenkins in the middle of the line, but Jenkins easily shed him to stuff Gus Edwards. A Justin Herbert pass clanged off Matlock’s hands in the flat as if it hit the Gatorade table; even a devoted Herbert skeptic must admit that the SMQB deserves better than to be forced to throw to moonlighting 300-poundish defenders.
Click the link to see Matlock lead blocking on J.K. Dobbins’ 61-yard gamebreaking run. Matlock essentially slams into Joe Alt’s back as the rookie struggles with Christian Wilkins. Fortunately, Dobbins sidesteps the pile.
Matlock is fine as a backup defender and special teamer. Giving him a short-yardage role might make some sense. Harbaugh is clearly sending a message by rewarding a “hustle guy” with an increased role. But 18 offensive snaps for Matlock were about 17 too many. There’s a fine line between outside-the-box thinking/culture building and overindulgence. I get the impression that Harbaugh is living vicariously through his new jack-of-all-trades. Or perhaps Harbaugh fell asleep during The Rockford Files and was visited in a dream by …
Anyway, Chargers fans should be very worried if Matlock makes an appearance as a Wildcat quarterback.
New Orleans Saints fans need not worry about Taysom Hill playing Wildcat quarterback: his cameos have gone from cool to lame to so-lame-they’re-cool to retro to vintage. Hill took just one snap in the New Orleans Saints rout of the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers last week, but he played seven snaps as a running back, six as a fullback and many others as some form of tight end/H-back/slot guy.
The Saints did all sorts of cool stuff with multi-back formations in Week 1. Hill shared the backfield with fullback Adam Prentice and speedster Rasheed Shaheed on his Wildcat run. He lined up at fullback and took an inside handoff to the right as Derek Carr and Jamaal Williams simulated a triple-option design to the left. Alvin Kamara lined up at fullback and raced into the right flat as Hill took an off-tackle handoff to the left; counter motion to Kamara’s side baffled the Chanticleers defense so Hill could rack up seven easy yards.
Hill would be an outstanding value at half his reputation and one-fourth his compensation. The threat of trick-play passes remains real, and he’s no worse a blocker than, say, Kyle Pitts. Put a tailback behind him, put a fullback in front of him, motion him every-which-way. It’s all better than the stale-saltine tactics the Saints gave us last year.
New Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak appears to remember something that Harbaugh and many other football coaches have forgotten. Fullbacks don’t have to be lumbering situational blockers. They can confound run keys, draw mismatches in pass coverage and stress defenses in other ways, so long as they are athletic enough to be serious rushing/receiving threats.
That brings us to Kyle Juszczyk in the 49ers’ Monday night win over the Jets, running the fullback wheel route that seems to work 100% of the time. Click the link for the goodness.
There are defensive solutions to fullback-oriented pass plays like the ones the 49ers use. But most defenses are free to never practice them, because most offenses rarely use their fullback (or the tight end who plays fullback four times per game) as anything but a lead blocker.
Imagine all the zany stuff a team with a versatile fullback could do to stress a defense designed to use 4-2-5 base personnel! C’mon NFL: don’t let the Saints and Son of Koobs lead the innovative vanguard.
And if Matlock catches a wheel-route touchdown this year, I will shave my beard and wear a Herbert jersey on podcasts.
Halftime
Doug Farrar has joined the Substack legion with The Xs and Os, which promises to provide precisely what is on the label. Doug’s a longtime friend, colleague and road dawg who has been grinding film and talking tactics with NFL insiders for nearly two decades. If you are reading this, it is probably because you miss that old Football Outsiders vibe. Doug is one of the folks who helped shape that vibe. As a bonus for the Eagles fans in the audience, Doug covered Zach Baun in one of his initial posts.
And now for a dry run. You know how old guys always do “dry runs?” Gosh Karen, I am not certain of the precise route to the church where Wilbur and Myrtle’s daughter is getting married in October. What’s say we drive there this week so we don’t get lost? We can stop at the garden center for chrysanthemums on the way home.
Well, NFL+ Pro offers a limited selection of dot diagrams, and I want to see how they look here at the Too Deep Zone in case I want to include them later. So here is Anthony Richardson’s touchdown pass to Alex Pierce:
Did it load? Did it look good? If so, maybe I will try to figure out other ultra-complicated AV stuff.
The Kupping of Chris Godwin
New Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen is a Sean McVay disciple. That’s a little like saying “that new pastor is a big believer in Jesus” these days. But Coen worked directly for McVay for four non-consecutive seasons, the last of them as offensive coordinator. So maybe it’s more like, “that new pastor is actually Saint Bartholomew” or somesuch.
Anyway, Coen has made the Bucs offense more Rams-like. Early results were positive, though the Bucs beat a Washington Commanders team in Week 1 that had no pass rush, cornerback talent or structured offense.
Chris Godwin caught eight passes for 83 yards and one touchdown against the Commanders, and there was much talk on the telecast about how Godwin now plays the Cooper Kupp role. The Godwin-Kupp talk was an extension of an offseason storyline which appears to have begun as a shorthand explanation of Coen’s scheme and spread into the fantasy sphere, where expected roles and target percentages are everything.
Now, Godwin has four 1,000-yard seasons, one 100-catch season, a Pro Bowl berth and a Super Bowl ring in his dossier. He has caught exactly 50 fewer career passes than Kupp (812 to 762) through Week 1, but he has also shared receiving duties with likely Hall of Famer Mike Evans. I never watched a Buccaneers game and thought, “this team’s problem is the fact that Godwin has never achieved his Kupp-like potential.” I usually thought, “STOP HANDING OFF TWICE TO SET UP THIRD-AND-8, DAMNIT.”
The “Kupp Role” boils down to “a slot role” for those of us who don’t pretend to have memorized the McVay playbook. Godwin indeed operated out of the slot frequently in Week 1: 14 times, per PFF, with most of his targets and receptions coming from the slot. But here’s the thing: Godwin lined up in the slot 13.2 times per game in 2023, according to PFF.
If we change the definition of the “Kupp Role” to “slot guy running shorter routes” (as opposed to a clear-out receiver), Godwin caught six slot passes of 0-to-10 air yards in Week 1, according to Sports Info Solutions. But he was targeted eight times once, six times once and five times once in similar situations in 2023. In other words, Godwin appears to be playing the Godwin role.
What about motion? Godwin was targeted twice as a motion man against the Commanders, catching two passes for 19 yards. He was targeted three or more times as a motion man on five different occasions in 2023.
I have no doubt that Godwin’s role has changed under the hood of the Buccaneers offense. The Godwin-as-Kupp framing of events, however, feels like benign gaslighting. Oh, Godwin caught a slot screen, the announcer says, that’s part of his new Cooper Kupp role, erasing the fact that Godwin was targeted for 48 slot screens (per SIS) over the last three years. It’s silly, and it short-changes Godwin’s accomplishments.
As for the early-down rushing, the Buccaneers ran 16 times and threw just nine times on first downs, averaging just 2.0 yards per rush on first downs. Chalk it up to playing with a lead, for now. The Buccaneers face a much tougher test against the Lions in Detroit on Sunday. If Coen really wants to earn his own genius reputation, he needs to find someone to play the 2018 Todd Gurley role. Or the 2023 Kyren Williams role. Or just give up and feed Godwin and Evans even more.
Sam Wise
If you want to appreciate Sam Darnold, compare him to three rookie quarterbacks, Will Levis, Lil’ Bryce Young, Gardner Minshew and Crash Test Brissett.
We’re in a Darnold is Good, Actually news window right now, fueled by Darnold’s excitingly-professional performance against a putrid Giants team dressed in Pennywise drag on Sunday. Minnesota Sports Fan did a fine job surveying the Week 1 Darnold takes, most of which were relatively sober when taken individually. Ingest too many of them, however, and you may end up wearing a lampshade.
Darnold usually performs well in small doses. His career September passer rating is 83.1, with a 63.8% completion rate, 13 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 6.4% sack rate. In October, his completion rate sinks to 55.5 and his sack rate climbs to 9.1%, with 15 touchdowns, 22 interceptions and a 64.6 rating. Things level out in his career stats for November-through-January, but that’s often because he is climbing off the bench in those months and either playing out lost-cause seasons or mopping up Week 18.
In other words, Darnold is a talented quarterback who is effective in short bursts but quickly gets figured out by opponents. That’s certainly what happened when he started the season for the 2022 Panthers, which was the last real Darnold Good Now window.
Maybe things are different now that Darnold learned from Kyle Shanahan for a year; after all, Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance are tearing up the league thanks to their 49ers knowledge (wink). It’s more likely that Darnold will crash back to quality backup/bottom-quartile status when the Vikings host the 49ers on Sunday. The Vikings also host the Jets in Week 5, and they’ll bring the ghosts that Darnold is trying to exorcise with him.
To tie this feature up in a bow, I would love to see Darnold follow in Geno Smith’s footsteps and enjoy some post-Jets redemption arc. I just need to see a lot more than 208 yards against a opponent that giftwrapped a pick-6 and looked ready for January to arrive by the third quarter.
Darnold is good enough to keep the Vikings out of Giants-Panthers abandon-all-hope-before-autumn-arrives mode. Perhaps that’s sufficient for a franchise that lost its rookie savior-in-training in August. Just be wary of reaching conclusions in September that are likely to wither and die come October.
Postscript: The Matlock challenge is real! Matlock must score a receiving touchdown of 10 yards or longer — no goal-line Big Man TD’s, please — for me to shave and purchase a Herbert jersey.
Post-Postscript: I cut-and-pasted the word chrysanthemums.
On my iPhone, the dot diagram of Richardson’s throw came through cleanly and looks good
Open with a Men Without Hats reference and you'll never go wrong.