Vikings Penaltyhalla, Texans Sackapalooza
A StatWatch tour of the NFL's invisible numbers finds the Vikings thriving on opponents' penalties, the Texans in a sack race and the Broncos enjoying (too) many happy returns.
In this “Invisible Numbers” pre-playoff edition of StatWatch …
The Minnesota Vikings have enjoyed a penalty advantage that they may not be able to take with them into the playoffs.
The Houston Texans defense struggles to keep up with their offense in a sack race.
The Baltimore Ravens committed six penalties and dropped an interception while you were reading this.
Refs hate the Philadelphia Eagles. But all of my neighbors already knew that.
The Denver Broncos enjoy (too) many happy returns.
And much more! Let’s ride!
Net Penalty Differential
Ah, my favorite “invisible” statistic: penalty yards minus opponent’s penalty yards. Net penalty differential is largely randomized and usually non-predictive, but it generates swings of hundreds of yards (plus first downs, negated big plays, and more) over the course of a season.
Only teams with a greater than 12% chance of reaching the playoffs (per the DVOA analysis at FTN Network) are included in most of this week’s lists. That’s right: I purposely thumbed the scale to exclude the damn Colts. And the Bengals and Dolphins, but mostly the Colts. The numerical rankings you see in the lists, however, are NFL-wide. All stats are through Week 15.
Here are the net penalty differential rankings:
1. Minnesota Vikings: +310 net penalty yards.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers: +165
3. Buffalo Bills: +143
5. Green Bay Packers: +133
7. Los Angeles Chargers: +104
8. Los Angeles Rams: +109
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +98
13. Kansas City Chiefs: +34
15. Atlanta Falcons: +23
17. Seattle Seahawks: -7
21. Washington Commanders: -38
22. Arizona Cardinals: -49
26. Detroit Lions: -95
27. Denver Broncos: -119
29. Houston Texans: -157
31: Philadelphia Eagles: -185
32: Baltimore Ravens: -336
The Vikings and Ravens are obvious outliers.
Among the Ravens’ sins this year: six roughing-the-passer fouls (most in the NFL), 13 defensive pass interference penalties (tied for third), eight defensive holds (third) and 27 offensive holds (most in the NFL). The Ravens have had four 100-yard penalty games this year and seven games in which they committed 40 more yards in penalties than their opponent.
The Ravens’ penalty differential is the highest in the NFL Penalties database since the 2020 Saints finished the season with a net -430 differential. Central tendency suggests that the Ravens’ disadvantage simply must even out at some point. That point does not necessarily have to come during the 2024 season.
As I wrote earlier, penalty differentials are usually non-predictive. Claiming that a team with a high penalty advantage benefits from better coaching or discipline is almost always a false hypothesis. That said, the Vikings have maintained a high penalty differential for years:
2024 Vikings: +310 net penalty yards (1st in NFL)
2023 Vikings: +246 net penalty yards (3rd)
2022 Vikings: +279 net penalty yards (1st)
Kevin O’Connell and his staff surely deserve some credit for this. The problem, however, is that I could not find any trends when combing through the Vikings’ individual penalty or home-road splits. They aren’t great, on a year-to-year basis, at avoiding false starts, drawing/avoiding pass interference or doing anything else that suggests superior coaching, skill or sustainability. If you remember the 2022 and 2023 seasons, you realize that probability enjoys stress-testing its parameters when it comes to the Vikings.
This season, the Vikings have benefitted from a league-high 28 opponent’s false starts: 19 of them (also a league high) at home. The most likely explanation for that split is crowd noise + pass rush; keep in mind that the Vikings will likely start their playoff journey on the road. The Vikings have enjoyed a 35-plus yard net penalty edge in each of their last five games, including close calls against the Bears (first meeting) and Cardinals.
The Steelers have benefited from 24 opposing false starts: 13 at home and 11 on the road. Opponent’s false starts correlate with pass rush, but not very tightly: Falcons opponents have committed 25 false starts, and the Falcons pass rush is as threatening as a litter of corgi puppies.
Lions opponents have committed 26 offensive holds, the highest total in the NFL. The mighty Lions offensive line has committed just 13 holds, tied for the third-lowest total in the NFL. At least two of those Lions holds came on special teams. The Lions’ penalty differential is poor due to 17 defensive pass interference penalties (leads NFL) for 255 yards (second to Jets).
The Eagles are 12th best in the NFL at avoiding penalty yards but have only benefitted from a league-low 492 opponents’ penalty yards. The Eagles have drawn just one defensive pass interference foul this year, which is at least partially a product of Jalen Hurts’ reluctance to throw to covered receivers.
If the Lions and Eagles face off in the playoffs, the Lions’ tendency to draw pass interference penalties versus the Eagles’ inability to draw them could be a hidden game within the game. Chuck it to whoever Terrion Arnold is covering, Jalen!
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