All Hail the Arizona Cardinals

A noteworthy Cardinals team? That's about as likely as hail in the desert. Wait ... what happened now?

There was an indoor hailstorm in the desert during an Arizona Cardinals game three weeks ago. The NFL world barely noticed.

That’s the awesome power of Cardinals football: it’s so easy to ignore that it can make a minor biblical plague disappear.

The skies opened up in the second quarter of the Week 9 Cardinals victory over the Chicago Bears. The State Farm Stadium roof was open, because Arizona in November is not supposed to be rainier than, sigh, Philadelphia. The rain turned to pellets of ice. The roof took ten minutes to close. Indoor Arizona hail! But you may not have heard about it until much later, if at all, because you were watching the Lions-Packers game or the Eagles-Jaguars nailbiter like a normal fan.  

The Cardinals rarely have our attention, divided or otherwise. They play football in a suburb of an airport terminal in the middle of nowhere. They’ve been a second-fiddle operation since they shared Chicago with the Bears (George Halas claimed the whole city, the Cardinals’ turf was limited to Racine Avenue) in the 1920s.  When the they finally got a Monday night “spotlight” in Week 7, it was an Internet-only B-game. When the Cardinals are relevant, it’s brief. When they are irrelevant, they disappear.

So when the Cardinals blew out the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, it was easy to brush off as a fluke. After all, Puka Nacua was on injured reserve and Cooper Kupp was knocked out of the game. Plus, no one was really paying attention.

And when they upset the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5, it was easy to brush off as a fluke. Niners kicker Jake Moody got hurt early in the game, and Kyle Shanahan lapsed into one of his something-has-gone-wrong tizzies. Plus, no one was really paying attention.

That Week 7 Monday night livestream victory over the Chargers? A fluke against a fellow middleweight. We were all watching Lamar Jackson dismantle the Buccaneers. 

The hailstorm maelstrom victory over the Bears? Who really thought the Bears were for real? (Lots of people, for several weeks, until they got hammered by the Cardinals.) An impressive fourth-quarter comeback against the Dolphins? Eh, Tua was injured. (No, he wasn’t.) A blowout of the Jets? Everyone knew they were looking for an excuse to quit. (Except that the Jets were 1.5-point favorites.) Plus, no one was really paying attention.

The Cardinals are now 6-4, with several quality wins and a one-game lead in the NFC West. Maybe it’s time to pay attention to them. 

Welcome to Down the Stretch, a feature which is just like TankWatch except that it covers potential playoff teams instead of roadkill. We’ll take deep dives into several teams in the weeks to come, analyze their playoff odds and try to make some accurate predictions for the rest of the 2024 season and beyond.

The Cardinals Story So Far

The Cardinals franchise has been a boiler-room operation since its inception. By the end of the 2022 season, however, they had become so rinky-dink that J.J. Watt couldn’t order a turkey wrap in the team cafeteria without whipping out his ATM card. The roster itself collapsed under the mismanagement of general manager Steve Keim, who was grappling with substance issues, and coach Kliff Kinsgbury, who possessed the stubblebeard and public persona of the cad who impregnates a novitiate in a telenovela.

Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill swallowed the back ends of the massive Keim-Kingsbury contracts and searched Linkedin for middling executives and coordinators willing to accept the NFL’s 32nd-most appealing leadership roles. He chose Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon (reaching out to him before the Super Bowl, which was impermissible but at least showed some initiative) and former Belichick functionary Monti Ossenfort.

Gannon introduced himself to the NFL world with a 2023 training camp pep talk that sounded like it was written by the first artificial intelligence ever to suffer from manic depression. Kyler Murray, reeling from a shattered knee and besmirched by a Keim/Kingsbury-conceived contract which initially included the kind of do-your-homework clause a ninth grader might sign to remain eligible, looked more like tradebait/vaporware than a franchise quarterback. But Murray returned in Week 10 of last season, and while the Cardinals went just 3-5 down the stretch in 2023, they were competitive in most of their losses.

While the Cardinals drafted Marvin Harrison in April, the rest of their roster moves suggested that they were still in rebuilding mode behind a nondescript coach and a fun-but-enigmatic quarterback. Then the quietly surprising victories began piling up.

Leadership Structure

Gannon remains a bit of a public cipher, in part because he works in a French foreign legion media outpost. Mike Sando of The Athletic tried to cast Gannon as the next Dan Campbell in a recent feature, but you can almost hear Sando straining to make the comparison. Both Gannon and Campbell started slowly but came around in their second seasons. Both are relying on comebacks from former first-overall picks at quarterback. Both … have noses. 

Ossenfort consummated (ooohh)  the 2023 draft trade that allowed the Texans to select Will Anderson in exchange for extra picks which have become defensive lineman Darius Robinson (just off injured reserve), defensive back Elijah Jones (on injured reserve), and edge rusher B.J. Ojulari (on injured reserve). Let’s say that the jury is still out on that deal. Ossenfort has done a fine job clearing the roster of many of Keim’s fetishized slot receivers and “positionless defenders.” Gannon and his staff have repurposed some of the rest.

Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, who worked his way up through Kevin Stefanski’s ranks in Minnesota and Cleveland, likes to set up play-action with an intricate running game. His balanced game plans have been a big part of the Cardinals’ success this season.

Owner Michael Bidwill is a grand-failson who illustrates what Mark Davis would be like if he had no taste instead of bad taste. Tight with a penny but loose with five-year extensions for underperforming decision-makers, Bidwill’s most redeeming trait is that he is more likely to evaporate into the background than step on the toes of success.

Quarterback Situation

Murray always looked a little like a too-tiny-to-be-that-good Madden Create-a-Player, especially when executing Kingsbury’s grab-bag offense. Despite the video-game trappings, Murray was only intermittently effective early in his career, and the Cardinals tended to rage-quit once opponents realized that Kingsbury was using 2,000 formations to conceal about four underlying play concepts. (Take note, Commanders fans.)

From All-Pro Reels, via the Creative Commons Share-Alike

Murray ranks second in passing DVOA and fifth in passing DYAR through week 11, with a 69.2% completion rate and an impressively-low 5.15% sack rate. He’s also ninth in rushing DYAR among quarterbacks.

Murray has developed as a pocket passer since the injury. He is clearly benefiting from a balanced offense that allows him to be more efficient than heroic. Petzing does a fine job keeping the Cardinals ahead of the sticks. Murray has been forced to drop back just 30 times on third/fourth down and seven-plus yards to go. That figure is tied for 27th in the NFL with many quarterbacks who have only played partial seasons: Derek Carr, Drake Maye and Bryce Young. 

Murray also appears more comfortable in his role as a team leader now that he no longer has to apologize for his Call of Duty hobby to a self-promoting Sean McVay cosplayer and a GM who could not pass a breathalyzer.

What Is Going Right

Besides Murray’s resurgence… 

• The Cardinals offensive line, anchored by 2023 first-round pick Paris Johnson at left tackle, is among the NFL’s top ten units. Sports Info Solutions charges them with 70 blown blocks (third-best in the NFL) and a 2.044% blown block rate (fourth-best).

• James Conner’s blown-plus-missed tackle rate of 28.9% ranks first among running backs with 50-plus carries. (Lamar Jackson’s is higher.) Pro Football Reference credits Conner with 2.5 yards after contact per carry, sixth in the NFL.

• While Harrison has taken over a few games, tight end Trey McBride ranks seventh in DYAR among tight ends and has blossomed into one of the NFL’s steadiest chain-movers. McBride is also a threat on a tight end-around in short yardage situations. 

• Budda Baker, who appeared to be headed for the Sky Harbor departure gates when Gannon arrived, remains one of the NFL’s most dynamic all-around defenders. 

• Gannon’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack against both the run and the pass despite the lack of a marquee edge rusher or top-tier cornerback. Recent high draft picks like cornerback Garrett Williams and edge/linebacker Zaven Collins (one of Keim’s positionless projects) are making positive contributions.

Trouble Spots

• Blowout losses to the Commanders and Packers reveal that the Cardinals could still use a little more time in the oven.

• The Cardinals defense ranks 32nd at stopping opponents’ third/fourth wide receivers, per DVOA. That’s a sign of both a lack of depth in the secondary and a so-so pass rush that makes tertiary targets easier to find. 

• Harrison catches just 55% of his targets. He has been targeted 24 times on passes of 15-plus air yards, with 13 catches for 313 yards. McBride is 7-of-9 for 160 yards on deep passes. Everyone else – Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, etc. – is 7-of-20 on deep targets. An opponent that can limit Harrison erases Murray’s deep-passing ability.

Future Schedule

Per DVOA, the Cardinals face the 11th-easiest future schedule in the NFL. Their upcoming schedule also ranks as the easiest in the NFC West.

The Cardinals visit the Seahawks and Vikings over the next two weeks, then host the Seahawks in Week 14. After that tough little sprint, they catch their breath against the Patriots (in Glendale) and Panthers before wrapping with the Rams (in Los Angeles) and 49ers.

No one in the NFC West is ready to fade just yet, and there’s a high probability that the division will be on the line when the Cardinals host the 49ers in the season finale. 

Real Playoff Outlook

DVOA Playoff Probability: 64.5%.

Moneylines: -155 to reach the playoffs (60.78% implied probability), -130 to win the NFC West (56.52%), Over/Under 9.5 wins.

The Cardinals need to win the NFC West; the Packers and Commanders losses will cause tiebreaker problems for them if they don’t. (They will also likely have Vikings/Seahawks losses in the mix if they cannot clinch the division.) The 49ers remain stronger than the Cardinals statistically, but they face a much tougher late-season schedule. The Cardinals are better than the Seahawks and Rams, and those Panthers/Patriots games should buoy them a bit.

The moneyline for Over 9.5 wins is -155; the house doesn’t want that action. Ten wins will probably sew up a playoff berth, hence the similar moneylines. The win-the-division wager has the most meat on the bone; I don’t think the 49ers (or any other NFC West team) has 10 wins in them this season, and the Cardinals could still win the division if they do.

Beyond 2024

The Cardinals should have no trouble consolidating this year’s gains moving forward. They have $113 million in paper cap space in 2025, with Murray under contract through 2028. Much of that $113 million should be spent on Baker, Conner and some of the veteran offensive linemen. 

The Cardinals have all of their 2025 draft picks except the sixth rounder they traded for Baron Browning, another incumbent they should sign to a long-term deal. 

Bottom Line

According to DVOA, the Cardinals and Commanders are virtually tied right now: 12.9% for the Cardinals, 12.6% for the Commanders.

The Cardinals and Commanders are broadly similar. Both are supposed to be rebuilding teams. Jayden Daniels, like Murray, is an undersized dual-threat. Daniels is the prohibitive Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, but Murray is a worthy Comeback Player of the Year candidate. The Cardinals roster is full of no-names; the Commanders roster is full of veteran cast-offs. Both teams have the lingering cologne-that-came-in-the-freshman-dorm-welcome-bag stench of Kingsbury about them. The Commanders have faced the NFL’s seventh-easiest schedule so far, the Cardinals the second-toughest. The Commanders thrashed the Cardinals in Week 4, but they were still taking opponents by surprise at that point. A rematch — which could happen in the playoffs if the Cardinals win the NFC West and the Commanders are Wild Cards — could just as easily go the other way.

You have probably been following the Daniels saga all season. That’s because he’s buzzy and new, and the Commanders play in a media hub. Both the Commanders and Cardinals look like one-and-done playoff teams that should keep one eye on the future, but the Commanders are more newsworthy due to sheer fanbase and market size.

The Cardinals are fun to watch. They are also fun to get to know a little better. You don’t have to bet them to win the Super Bowl or anything. But when they play the Seahawks at 4:05 PM Eastern on Sunday, don’t ignore them in favor of 49ers-Packers. Their game is just as important, after all. And heck, it might just rain toads or something.

COMING THURSDAY OR FRIDAY: Did you like “Down the Stretch” for the Cardinals? Then you are sure to love it for a little team known as the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES.