Until proven otherwise, I consider the Chiefs AFC favorites every year. Mahomes is too clutch and Reid is irritatingly smart. Their difference makers are getting older but they are still there.
As for the Bills, the offense should be ok if they don't sleepwalk into the season. I'm afraid the defense probably won't be mistaken for a top unit when it matters yet again. A sea of 3Ts and not a single good 1T. The backfield could be a serious liability with issues/questions at CB2 and safety. Hopefully at least one of the three DL draftees will pop this season, Bishop takes a leap,, and somebody can figure out how to stay healthy at CB2. Baltimore will be a helluva test in week 1.
"If McLaurin isn’t back in the fold by the time you read this, it means you probably read it almost immediately after publication." I don't think anyone expected Washington to trade him, but you certainly nailed the timing!
1) The Eagles are a bona fide front runner this year, and their fans deserve to feel confident about their chances at a repeat. There is, however, a "hater's case" to be made that the team will be slightly less dominant in 2025: Barkley's legs might not be as springy after last year's 436 carries, they lost a lot of defensive snaps to free agency and trades, they had very good injury luck in 2024, and the new OC likely throws some sand in the offensive machine. It's not much, I admit, but it reminds us that nothing is written until the games are actually played.
2) The Ravens probably do have the best roster in the AFC, but I'm not sold on Buffalo being a tier better than the Chiefs. The Bills defense in particular struggled against the league's top offenses in 2024 because of a middling pass rush and a lack of secondary depth. The additions of aging and oft-injured/suspended veterans (e.g., Joey Bosa, Tre White, Larry Ogunjobi) and an unproven and injured rookie CB (Maxwell Hairston) deserve a wait-and-see attitude about how much they've really improved.
3) I question the Rams status as a contender because we know what it looks like when a QB plays like he can't afford to get hit: see Ben Roethlisberger's last two seasons in Pittsburgh. OTOH, Peyton Manning was clearly washed in 2015, but the Broncos still rode the QB's competitive savvy and an all-time defense to a Super Bowl win. Even granting that Sean McVay is leagues better than Matt Canada in the OC role, I think that the Rams' bet on Stafford being just healthy enough isn't going to pay off for them.
Agree on the Eagles. They're clearly the best in the NFC until proven otherwise. But health, especially Barkley, was a key to their 2024 run and it's unlikely to stay that way.
When was the last time that a running back was the most important player on a league champ? Terrell Davis in 1999?
I am not suggesting that the Eagles aren’t talented and deep. But they are pretty reliant on a guy that had 400+ carries and has been injured a bit already.
I agree. But even if Barkley declines from "historically productive" to "top 10 NFL back" the Eagles still have a ferocious DL, a young, quality secondary, one of the best skill position groups and a QB who has 6 playoff wins before he turned 27.
OTOH, they were lucky with health last year, faced a cupcake schedule and faced three teams in the playoffs that I think were worse than the Bills, Ravens or a healthy Lions team.
So they could runaway with the conference again or they could find themselves fighting for a WC spot come week 17. NFL is mercurial; teams that look like world beaters now can look weak later and vice versa.
My go-to quote on injury quantity comes from Bill James some 30+ years ago. Remarking on the latest in a string of offseason departures or injuries (maybe to the Braves?), James wrote that the specific player (maybe David Justice?) wasn't hinself necessarily a huge loss, but:
"You don't need any particular pint of blood, either."
Even though I'm not immune to "Philly-fan phatalism", I feel pretty good about the Eagles heading into the season. I like the recent moved to bring back Fred Johnson for depth on the offensive line. Injuries would be my biggest concern, and the CB2 situation is something to keep an eye on.
"Of course, just about every other contender appears to be one cornerback short due to injuries entering the season, except for the Texans, who: a) are barely contenders; and b) purchased their offensive line at Aldi."
I'm guessing there are about three other weirdos in the universe who thought: "I wonder if they got it at Aldi Aldi (aka "echter Aldi," "Karls Aldi," or "Aldi Süd") or Trader Joe's (aka "falscher Aldi," "Theos Aldi," or "Aldi Nord"). I honestly don't know which one would be worse.
Oh I thought it was a perfect reference. I shopped there when I had almost no money, and it definitely lands as "place to get perfectly decent 37-cent saltines but probably not steak (or a starting O-line)." It's just that I found out recently about the back story and the TJ connection, and now it's all I can think of when I hear the name.
I suppose you could have gone full Gen-X and said Kmart (or Venture or Zayre).
Lidl, meanwhile, would have sent me directly to google. (I don't think they have a store west of Atlanta.)
If Isaiah Likely misses a game winning touchdown against the Bills because his toe was on the line, I am betting my entire 401K that the Bills win the AFC.
What’s with the Eagles trading for Sam Howell over just signing Carson Wentz? I’ve got to figure there’s still bad juju there, which is a shame; I was looking forward to Wentz getting his Philly redemption when Hurts misses a few games, and Wentz turning that performance into one last good contract from some team with terrible management, like the Browns.
"If McLaurin isn’t back in the fold by the time you read this, it means you probably read it almost immediately after publication."
As I read it, I received the notification that he had signed. LOL.
Mike is born, bred, and scrapple fed to write my favorite NFL articles for the last decade.
More scrapple than man. Living the only way I can.
Thanks Mike . Lots of intriguing insight as usual. Soooo do we still need to play the games?
Until proven otherwise, I consider the Chiefs AFC favorites every year. Mahomes is too clutch and Reid is irritatingly smart. Their difference makers are getting older but they are still there.
As for the Bills, the offense should be ok if they don't sleepwalk into the season. I'm afraid the defense probably won't be mistaken for a top unit when it matters yet again. A sea of 3Ts and not a single good 1T. The backfield could be a serious liability with issues/questions at CB2 and safety. Hopefully at least one of the three DL draftees will pop this season, Bishop takes a leap,, and somebody can figure out how to stay healthy at CB2. Baltimore will be a helluva test in week 1.
"If McLaurin isn’t back in the fold by the time you read this, it means you probably read it almost immediately after publication." I don't think anyone expected Washington to trade him, but you certainly nailed the timing!
I got lucky. But also ... been doing this for a long time and have a sense of these contract hassles.
1) The Eagles are a bona fide front runner this year, and their fans deserve to feel confident about their chances at a repeat. There is, however, a "hater's case" to be made that the team will be slightly less dominant in 2025: Barkley's legs might not be as springy after last year's 436 carries, they lost a lot of defensive snaps to free agency and trades, they had very good injury luck in 2024, and the new OC likely throws some sand in the offensive machine. It's not much, I admit, but it reminds us that nothing is written until the games are actually played.
2) The Ravens probably do have the best roster in the AFC, but I'm not sold on Buffalo being a tier better than the Chiefs. The Bills defense in particular struggled against the league's top offenses in 2024 because of a middling pass rush and a lack of secondary depth. The additions of aging and oft-injured/suspended veterans (e.g., Joey Bosa, Tre White, Larry Ogunjobi) and an unproven and injured rookie CB (Maxwell Hairston) deserve a wait-and-see attitude about how much they've really improved.
3) I question the Rams status as a contender because we know what it looks like when a QB plays like he can't afford to get hit: see Ben Roethlisberger's last two seasons in Pittsburgh. OTOH, Peyton Manning was clearly washed in 2015, but the Broncos still rode the QB's competitive savvy and an all-time defense to a Super Bowl win. Even granting that Sean McVay is leagues better than Matt Canada in the OC role, I think that the Rams' bet on Stafford being just healthy enough isn't going to pay off for them.
I would not have put the Rams in the contenders, but I let DraftKings pick my cutoffs. It makes for more interesting arguments.
Agree on the Eagles. They're clearly the best in the NFC until proven otherwise. But health, especially Barkley, was a key to their 2024 run and it's unlikely to stay that way.
When was the last time that a running back was the most important player on a league champ? Terrell Davis in 1999?
I am not suggesting that the Eagles aren’t talented and deep. But they are pretty reliant on a guy that had 400+ carries and has been injured a bit already.
I agree. But even if Barkley declines from "historically productive" to "top 10 NFL back" the Eagles still have a ferocious DL, a young, quality secondary, one of the best skill position groups and a QB who has 6 playoff wins before he turned 27.
OTOH, they were lucky with health last year, faced a cupcake schedule and faced three teams in the playoffs that I think were worse than the Bills, Ravens or a healthy Lions team.
So they could runaway with the conference again or they could find themselves fighting for a WC spot come week 17. NFL is mercurial; teams that look like world beaters now can look weak later and vice versa.
'Quantity has a quality all its own' is one of my favorite quotes. Well done.
Hehehe. Not the nicest fellow who coined it. But it has a ring to it.
My go-to quote on injury quantity comes from Bill James some 30+ years ago. Remarking on the latest in a string of offseason departures or injuries (maybe to the Braves?), James wrote that the specific player (maybe David Justice?) wasn't hinself necessarily a huge loss, but:
"You don't need any particular pint of blood, either."
And McLaurin just resigned. Behold the psychic powers mortals.
“ We’ll know more about the Bills and Ravens after they square off in the Sunday Night Football opener.”
Sure, but we won’t know enough to be useful until late in the season, when we see who the injury bug will—or will not—hit.
We will know who has the head-to-head tiebreaker!
But until the end of the season we won’t know if it matters.
Mike, yes I received this via email. No, I did not download the substack app to reply.
I am still working on that whole mess. Have patience with me! The Substack tech dept is on the case!
Even though I'm not immune to "Philly-fan phatalism", I feel pretty good about the Eagles heading into the season. I like the recent moved to bring back Fred Johnson for depth on the offensive line. Injuries would be my biggest concern, and the CB2 situation is something to keep an eye on.
"Of course, just about every other contender appears to be one cornerback short due to injuries entering the season, except for the Texans, who: a) are barely contenders; and b) purchased their offensive line at Aldi."
I'm guessing there are about three other weirdos in the universe who thought: "I wonder if they got it at Aldi Aldi (aka "echter Aldi," "Karls Aldi," or "Aldi Süd") or Trader Joe's (aka "falscher Aldi," "Theos Aldi," or "Aldi Nord"). I honestly don't know which one would be worse.
It was originally Lidl. I need a good "discount store" to reference.
Oh I thought it was a perfect reference. I shopped there when I had almost no money, and it definitely lands as "place to get perfectly decent 37-cent saltines but probably not steak (or a starting O-line)." It's just that I found out recently about the back story and the TJ connection, and now it's all I can think of when I hear the name.
I suppose you could have gone full Gen-X and said Kmart (or Venture or Zayre).
Lidl, meanwhile, would have sent me directly to google. (I don't think they have a store west of Atlanta.)
If Isaiah Likely misses a game winning touchdown against the Bills because his toe was on the line, I am betting my entire 401K that the Bills win the AFC.
That should be a prop bet. It would only be like +130 or something.
Contractual tantric denial! Ha!
What’s with the Eagles trading for Sam Howell over just signing Carson Wentz? I’ve got to figure there’s still bad juju there, which is a shame; I was looking forward to Wentz getting his Philly redemption when Hurts misses a few games, and Wentz turning that performance into one last good contract from some team with terrible management, like the Browns.
It all sounds pretty reasonable.