My first text following the Vrabel hire was to a friend that the Patriots were making the same "favorite sons" mistake the Packers did with the Starr Gregg hirings.
In 1983, the Packers faced the Bears at the end of Starr's ninth season as head coach. The Packers were 8-7 and a victory guaranteed a winning record and rumors abounded that a victory would save Starr's job. It's the only game of my life I rooted against the Packers and they fell to the Bears 23-21. Starr was let go. The other item I recall is that Starr responded to the firing with the comment that he felt he was finally ready as a head coach (after nine years) and was disappointed with the firing.
I have lived with traitor's guilt for that singular season-ending game for 42 years. When my demise arrives, I'll be denied burial within Green Bay city limits. In my defense, I didn't root for the Bears; I rooted for the Packer franchise that needed to move on. That'll be some solace as I lie rotting in my unmarked grave 'neath a dead oak at the end of a gravel service road in the Machickanee Forest twenty miles north of Titletown.
Belichick was done as a head coach when he started hiring only "guys he knows" for his coaching staff.
Kraft Sr. is showing he's done as an effective owner, by hiring only "guys he knows".
When you get to the point where you can't go outside of your comfort zone, to the scary unknown of new people with new ideas, you're going to be left behind in any competitive industry.
Is there a good piece to read on the AJ Brown trade? I'm unclear if it was Vrabel's idea or the GM?
Personally I would have gone for the SJ from Detroit, but given how the windows work you'd probably have to break some rules to be sure not to miss out and at the same time miss out on alternatives.
From over the ocean, I'd point to the long term success and the eventual decline of the Anfield boot room. It doesn't have to go the way the Packers went post Lombardi. However, the story of the boot room (which did eventually crumble) also clarifies the key problem (same as the Bill B problem) - success comes from fixing personnel acquisition/contract management first - the coach is the 2nd element of success, you won't win without a good coach, but even the best coach won't win if your recruiting is off.
That for me is the question around the Vrabel selection, nothing about culture, looking backwards etc. Everything is about "is Wolf as bad as he seems" and "is Vrabel actually better at that bit, if he's negotiated to actually be in charge of it."
While I have no substantial disagreements here, I'd consider Vrabel a bit better. He can be a "Kirkland Signature" Dan Campbell — tough but a players coach — especially if he learns from Campbell and thinks outside the Bellichickian box. Maybe try to coax McCown from the Vikings as OC? Go get some McVay lieutenant (cliché, but at least a different cliché)? Go look at the Harbaugh or Carroll tree for someone to run his defense?
If anything, the "Patriot Way" must die so the Patriots can live.
And to a great extent Belichick was an attempt to recapture the Parcells era which Kraft inherited, so the one honest-to-God coaching search by the Krafts was Pete Carroll (who was run out of town by the media/fans for not being Parcells, to be fair)
Great article, Mike! The Vrabel hire has been treated as a fait accompli in the media, and most seem to accept it as a good hire (like your buddy Schatz on the podcast yesterday). But it’s been rubbing me the wrong way and you explained why perfectly.
Reminds me a bit of the Nebraska Cornhuskers hiring Scott Frost. He had success elsewhere, was a favorite son, it seemed a match made in heaven, then it all went sour quickly.
It's probably not an ideal choice, but the most important part of analyzing coaching hires is considering the alternatives. Which available candidate would have been a better choice for the Patriots? Andy Reid would be a perfect choice, but he's not available, so being overly critical of hiring decisions is a bit of a fool's errand because very few teams actually have the opportunity to hire a candidate with an established track record of professional competence. Guys like Andy Reid, Sean Payton or Harbaugh are rarely on the market and they can afford to be picky when they are. All other candidates carry some degree of risk and it makes sense to try to mitigate it to some extent. I don't think Vrabel will let them relive their glory days, but I also don't think anyone else will, either. Basic competence is a good choice, as it keeps the fanbase content, if not excited.
It's interesting that the Vrabel hire is so popular, and particularly with the intelligentsia, for whom Vrabel has always been a favorite. Yet Vrabel ran ground-and-pound, play-action teams with distinctly limited playoff ceilings. Meanwhile, Mike McCarthy is a by-word for stupidity, who can't distinguish correlation from causation: https://x.com/CoachspeakIndex/status/1879201699568779591
Hey, there were some really great articles in Playboy. Just don't read anything about Hef's personal life. Or anything that happened at the mansion. Or . . . look, just read the articles.
The narrative arc definitely resembles that of the post-Lombardi Packers, but that similarity doesn’t make Vrabel a bad hire any more than Detroit’s innovative and exciting offense will make Ben Johnson a good one. Both may ultimately prove true, but the details matter—and they matter far more than historical parallels, amusing and insightful as they may be. It’s also true that most coaches don’t succeed—that’s why Lombardi, Belichick, and Andy Reid are special. As a Pats fan, I like the decision, though not necessarily any more than I would have liked to see Johnson or Brian Flores hired. As you say, let’s see how the staff is fleshed out and how the draft goes. Thanks as always for a wonderful column.
I don't disagree with your analysis at all, but Patriots fans (and Bob Kraft is a fan before he's anything else) will probably cut Vrabel a lot of slack if he can simply restore a degree of organization to what is now an organization in name only.. Everybody here knows how talent-bereft the team is.
I’m passionately opposed to hiring club legends as head coach, their legend status means if they suck it takes extra time, often extra seasons to fire them beyond what any other coach would get
In Aussie Rules, Collingwood hired Buckley and he got at least 3 seasons to line with a loaded team then when they eventually cut ties a weaker younger team with a proper coach won the grand final straight away
My team, Hawthorn have hired ex legend Mitchell, we did well last year after a couple of years of tanking but we have won at least one GF in every decade since the 60s, we now only have 5 seasons left to keep the streak alive and cos we have an ex legend as coach we’re basically stuck with him now, cos even if they fail this year, last year plus legend status buys him until 28 at least
Yeah, but how many other coaches would slice off their own joints to get to the Super Bowl? Surely penile preservation is intangible that carries great weight in a conversation with Robert Kraft.
My first text following the Vrabel hire was to a friend that the Patriots were making the same "favorite sons" mistake the Packers did with the Starr Gregg hirings.
In 1983, the Packers faced the Bears at the end of Starr's ninth season as head coach. The Packers were 8-7 and a victory guaranteed a winning record and rumors abounded that a victory would save Starr's job. It's the only game of my life I rooted against the Packers and they fell to the Bears 23-21. Starr was let go. The other item I recall is that Starr responded to the firing with the comment that he felt he was finally ready as a head coach (after nine years) and was disappointed with the firing.
I have lived with traitor's guilt for that singular season-ending game for 42 years. When my demise arrives, I'll be denied burial within Green Bay city limits. In my defense, I didn't root for the Bears; I rooted for the Packer franchise that needed to move on. That'll be some solace as I lie rotting in my unmarked grave 'neath a dead oak at the end of a gravel service road in the Machickanee Forest twenty miles north of Titletown.
Belichick was done as a head coach when he started hiring only "guys he knows" for his coaching staff.
Kraft Sr. is showing he's done as an effective owner, by hiring only "guys he knows".
When you get to the point where you can't go outside of your comfort zone, to the scary unknown of new people with new ideas, you're going to be left behind in any competitive industry.
Is there a good piece to read on the AJ Brown trade? I'm unclear if it was Vrabel's idea or the GM?
Personally I would have gone for the SJ from Detroit, but given how the windows work you'd probably have to break some rules to be sure not to miss out and at the same time miss out on alternatives.
From over the ocean, I'd point to the long term success and the eventual decline of the Anfield boot room. It doesn't have to go the way the Packers went post Lombardi. However, the story of the boot room (which did eventually crumble) also clarifies the key problem (same as the Bill B problem) - success comes from fixing personnel acquisition/contract management first - the coach is the 2nd element of success, you won't win without a good coach, but even the best coach won't win if your recruiting is off.
That for me is the question around the Vrabel selection, nothing about culture, looking backwards etc. Everything is about "is Wolf as bad as he seems" and "is Vrabel actually better at that bit, if he's negotiated to actually be in charge of it."
Yeah, Vrabel disagreed with it; Jon Robinson was fired as the GM for making the trade.
Yeah this seems like a rare miss from Mike. Vrabel was visibly pissed when they made that trade. He almost stormed out of the draft room.
"you won't win without a good coach, but even the best coach won't win if your recruiting is off"
This is so true!
Oof. I remember those Packers years, and the resemblance is uncanny. Oh well. We had 20 great years. I guess this sort of thing was inevitable
I have experienced enough wins and memories for a lifetime. It's fine if it never happens again, because it won't.
While I have no substantial disagreements here, I'd consider Vrabel a bit better. He can be a "Kirkland Signature" Dan Campbell — tough but a players coach — especially if he learns from Campbell and thinks outside the Bellichickian box. Maybe try to coax McCown from the Vikings as OC? Go get some McVay lieutenant (cliché, but at least a different cliché)? Go look at the Harbaugh or Carroll tree for someone to run his defense?
If anything, the "Patriot Way" must die so the Patriots can live.
And to a great extent Belichick was an attempt to recapture the Parcells era which Kraft inherited, so the one honest-to-God coaching search by the Krafts was Pete Carroll (who was run out of town by the media/fans for not being Parcells, to be fair)
"HowieCoin." I laughed.
The Patriots went on to forget their troubles with a big bowl of strawberry ice cream.
Great article, Mike! The Vrabel hire has been treated as a fait accompli in the media, and most seem to accept it as a good hire (like your buddy Schatz on the podcast yesterday). But it’s been rubbing me the wrong way and you explained why perfectly.
Reminds me a bit of the Nebraska Cornhuskers hiring Scott Frost. He had success elsewhere, was a favorite son, it seemed a match made in heaven, then it all went sour quickly.
It's probably not an ideal choice, but the most important part of analyzing coaching hires is considering the alternatives. Which available candidate would have been a better choice for the Patriots? Andy Reid would be a perfect choice, but he's not available, so being overly critical of hiring decisions is a bit of a fool's errand because very few teams actually have the opportunity to hire a candidate with an established track record of professional competence. Guys like Andy Reid, Sean Payton or Harbaugh are rarely on the market and they can afford to be picky when they are. All other candidates carry some degree of risk and it makes sense to try to mitigate it to some extent. I don't think Vrabel will let them relive their glory days, but I also don't think anyone else will, either. Basic competence is a good choice, as it keeps the fanbase content, if not excited.
The best choice would be a younger coach outside of their system with a new outside-their-system GM coming with.
Risk is inherent in whatever choice is made. Vrabel is a risk, just a different kind of risk.
Can you name the specific person about whom you're writing?
It's interesting that the Vrabel hire is so popular, and particularly with the intelligentsia, for whom Vrabel has always been a favorite. Yet Vrabel ran ground-and-pound, play-action teams with distinctly limited playoff ceilings. Meanwhile, Mike McCarthy is a by-word for stupidity, who can't distinguish correlation from causation: https://x.com/CoachspeakIndex/status/1879201699568779591
Hey, there were some really great articles in Playboy. Just don't read anything about Hef's personal life. Or anything that happened at the mansion. Or . . . look, just read the articles.
"Get me Bill Belichick!"
"He's unavailable, sir."
"Then get me his non-union Mexican equivalent!"
The narrative arc definitely resembles that of the post-Lombardi Packers, but that similarity doesn’t make Vrabel a bad hire any more than Detroit’s innovative and exciting offense will make Ben Johnson a good one. Both may ultimately prove true, but the details matter—and they matter far more than historical parallels, amusing and insightful as they may be. It’s also true that most coaches don’t succeed—that’s why Lombardi, Belichick, and Andy Reid are special. As a Pats fan, I like the decision, though not necessarily any more than I would have liked to see Johnson or Brian Flores hired. As you say, let’s see how the staff is fleshed out and how the draft goes. Thanks as always for a wonderful column.
I don't disagree with your analysis at all, but Patriots fans (and Bob Kraft is a fan before he's anything else) will probably cut Vrabel a lot of slack if he can simply restore a degree of organization to what is now an organization in name only.. Everybody here knows how talent-bereft the team is.
You could also mention the Broncos hiring storm god Elway as another example of a team attempting to 'recapture the magic'.
I’m passionately opposed to hiring club legends as head coach, their legend status means if they suck it takes extra time, often extra seasons to fire them beyond what any other coach would get
In Aussie Rules, Collingwood hired Buckley and he got at least 3 seasons to line with a loaded team then when they eventually cut ties a weaker younger team with a proper coach won the grand final straight away
My team, Hawthorn have hired ex legend Mitchell, we did well last year after a couple of years of tanking but we have won at least one GF in every decade since the 60s, we now only have 5 seasons left to keep the streak alive and cos we have an ex legend as coach we’re basically stuck with him now, cos even if they fail this year, last year plus legend status buys him until 28 at least
Yeah, but how many other coaches would slice off their own joints to get to the Super Bowl? Surely penile preservation is intangible that carries great weight in a conversation with Robert Kraft.