My first text following the Vrabel hire was to a friend that the Patriots were making the same "favorite sons" mistake the Packers did with the Starr Gregg hirings.
In 1983, the Packers faced the Bears at the end of Starr's ninth season as head coach. The Packers were 8-7 and a victory guaranteed a winning record and rumors abounded that a victory would save Starr's job. It's the only game of my life I rooted against the Packers and they fell to the Bears 23-21. Starr was let go. The other item I recall is that Starr responded to the firing with the comment that he felt he was finally ready as a head coach (after nine years) and was disappointed with the firing.
I have lived with traitor's guilt for that singular season-ending game for 42 years. When my demise arrives, I'll be denied burial within Green Bay city limits. In my defense, I didn't root for the Bears; I rooted for the Packer franchise that needed to move on. That'll be some solace as I lie rotting in my unmarked grave 'neath a dead oak at the end of a gravel service road in the Machickanee Forest twenty miles north of Titletown.
Belichick was done as a head coach when he started hiring only "guys he knows" for his coaching staff.
Kraft Sr. is showing he's done as an effective owner, by hiring only "guys he knows".
When you get to the point where you can't go outside of your comfort zone, to the scary unknown of new people with new ideas, you're going to be left behind in any competitive industry.
Is there a good piece to read on the AJ Brown trade? I'm unclear if it was Vrabel's idea or the GM?
Personally I would have gone for the SJ from Detroit, but given how the windows work you'd probably have to break some rules to be sure not to miss out and at the same time miss out on alternatives.
From over the ocean, I'd point to the long term success and the eventual decline of the Anfield boot room. It doesn't have to go the way the Packers went post Lombardi. However, the story of the boot room (which did eventually crumble) also clarifies the key problem (same as the Bill B problem) - success comes from fixing personnel acquisition/contract management first - the coach is the 2nd element of success, you won't win without a good coach, but even the best coach won't win if your recruiting is off.
That for me is the question around the Vrabel selection, nothing about culture, looking backwards etc. Everything is about "is Wolf as bad as he seems" and "is Vrabel actually better at that bit, if he's negotiated to actually be in charge of it."
While I have no substantial disagreements here, I'd consider Vrabel a bit better. He can be a "Kirkland Signature" Dan Campbell — tough but a players coach — especially if he learns from Campbell and thinks outside the Bellichickian box. Maybe try to coax McCown from the Vikings as OC? Go get some McVay lieutenant (cliché, but at least a different cliché)? Go look at the Harbaugh or Carroll tree for someone to run his defense?
If anything, the "Patriot Way" must die so the Patriots can live.
Hey, there were some really great articles in Playboy. Just don't read anything about Hef's personal life. Or anything that happened at the mansion. Or . . . look, just read the articles.
And to a great extent Belichick was an attempt to recapture the Parcells era which Kraft inherited, so the one honest-to-God coaching search by the Krafts was Pete Carroll (who was run out of town by the media/fans for not being Parcells, to be fair)
I don't disagree with your analysis at all, but Patriots fans (and Bob Kraft is a fan before he's anything else) will probably cut Vrabel a lot of slack if he can simply restore a degree of organization to what is now an organization in name only.. Everybody here knows how talent-bereft the team is.
Great article, Mike! The Vrabel hire has been treated as a fait accompli in the media, and most seem to accept it as a good hire (like your buddy Schatz on the podcast yesterday). But it’s been rubbing me the wrong way and you explained why perfectly.
Reminds me a bit of the Nebraska Cornhuskers hiring Scott Frost. He had success elsewhere, was a favorite son, it seemed a match made in heaven, then it all went sour quickly.
It's probably not an ideal choice, but the most important part of analyzing coaching hires is considering the alternatives. Which available candidate would have been a better choice for the Patriots? Andy Reid would be a perfect choice, but he's not available, so being overly critical of hiring decisions is a bit of a fool's errand because very few teams actually have the opportunity to hire a candidate with an established track record of professional competence. Guys like Andy Reid, Sean Payton or Harbaugh are rarely on the market and they can afford to be picky when they are. All other candidates carry some degree of risk and it makes sense to try to mitigate it to some extent. I don't think Vrabel will let them relive their glory days, but I also don't think anyone else will, either. Basic competence is a good choice, as it keeps the fanbase content, if not excited.
The narrative arc definitely resembles that of the post-Lombardi Packers, but that similarity doesn’t make Vrabel a bad hire any more than Detroit’s innovative and exciting offense will make Ben Johnson a good one. Both may ultimately prove true, but the details matter—and they matter far more than historical parallels, amusing and insightful as they may be. It’s also true that most coaches don’t succeed—that’s why Lombardi, Belichick, and Andy Reid are special. As a Pats fan, I like the decision, though not necessarily any more than I would have liked to see Johnson or Brian Flores hired. As you say, let’s see how the staff is fleshed out and how the draft goes. Thanks as always for a wonderful column.
Yeah, but how many other coaches would slice off their own joints to get to the Super Bowl? Surely penile preservation is intangible that carries great weight in a conversation with Robert Kraft.
One thing Vrabel has over Forrest Gregg: His Titans teams were not (as far as I could tell) cheap, dirty, headhunting thugs. As a Bears fan, I hated those Packers far more than I hated the Favre/Rodgers versions---I can handle getting whupped on the scoreboard by a superior team, but not a bunch of scrubs coached actively to injure people.
I actually don't recall Gregg's thugs beating Ditka's Bears once (unless it was a scab game??), Tom.
Late December 1984 they did get them that one time, @ 30 seconds left down by 4 or so noodle-armed Rich Campbell threw a moonball down the left sideline. That white cornerback the Bears had had stopped to see what was happening, knowing Campbell couldn't throw it any farther than that anyway. But Campbell had peeled away from the rush and now was running forward, so his momentum carried the pass over the guy's head to the receiver for a TD. I believe Ditka/Buddy demoted the poor dude to the practice squad before reaching the locker room.
Thing is, Gregg wasn't thugging yet. That started the next season, and really kicked into gear in '86.
My first text following the Vrabel hire was to a friend that the Patriots were making the same "favorite sons" mistake the Packers did with the Starr Gregg hirings.
In 1983, the Packers faced the Bears at the end of Starr's ninth season as head coach. The Packers were 8-7 and a victory guaranteed a winning record and rumors abounded that a victory would save Starr's job. It's the only game of my life I rooted against the Packers and they fell to the Bears 23-21. Starr was let go. The other item I recall is that Starr responded to the firing with the comment that he felt he was finally ready as a head coach (after nine years) and was disappointed with the firing.
I have lived with traitor's guilt for that singular season-ending game for 42 years. When my demise arrives, I'll be denied burial within Green Bay city limits. In my defense, I didn't root for the Bears; I rooted for the Packer franchise that needed to move on. That'll be some solace as I lie rotting in my unmarked grave 'neath a dead oak at the end of a gravel service road in the Machickanee Forest twenty miles north of Titletown.
Belichick was done as a head coach when he started hiring only "guys he knows" for his coaching staff.
Kraft Sr. is showing he's done as an effective owner, by hiring only "guys he knows".
When you get to the point where you can't go outside of your comfort zone, to the scary unknown of new people with new ideas, you're going to be left behind in any competitive industry.
Oof. I remember those Packers years, and the resemblance is uncanny. Oh well. We had 20 great years. I guess this sort of thing was inevitable
I have experienced enough wins and memories for a lifetime. It's fine if it never happens again, because it won't.
Is there a good piece to read on the AJ Brown trade? I'm unclear if it was Vrabel's idea or the GM?
Personally I would have gone for the SJ from Detroit, but given how the windows work you'd probably have to break some rules to be sure not to miss out and at the same time miss out on alternatives.
From over the ocean, I'd point to the long term success and the eventual decline of the Anfield boot room. It doesn't have to go the way the Packers went post Lombardi. However, the story of the boot room (which did eventually crumble) also clarifies the key problem (same as the Bill B problem) - success comes from fixing personnel acquisition/contract management first - the coach is the 2nd element of success, you won't win without a good coach, but even the best coach won't win if your recruiting is off.
That for me is the question around the Vrabel selection, nothing about culture, looking backwards etc. Everything is about "is Wolf as bad as he seems" and "is Vrabel actually better at that bit, if he's negotiated to actually be in charge of it."
Yeah, Vrabel disagreed with it; Jon Robinson was fired as the GM for making the trade.
"you won't win without a good coach, but even the best coach won't win if your recruiting is off"
This is so true!
While I have no substantial disagreements here, I'd consider Vrabel a bit better. He can be a "Kirkland Signature" Dan Campbell — tough but a players coach — especially if he learns from Campbell and thinks outside the Bellichickian box. Maybe try to coax McCown from the Vikings as OC? Go get some McVay lieutenant (cliché, but at least a different cliché)? Go look at the Harbaugh or Carroll tree for someone to run his defense?
If anything, the "Patriot Way" must die so the Patriots can live.
Hey, there were some really great articles in Playboy. Just don't read anything about Hef's personal life. Or anything that happened at the mansion. Or . . . look, just read the articles.
And to a great extent Belichick was an attempt to recapture the Parcells era which Kraft inherited, so the one honest-to-God coaching search by the Krafts was Pete Carroll (who was run out of town by the media/fans for not being Parcells, to be fair)
I don't disagree with your analysis at all, but Patriots fans (and Bob Kraft is a fan before he's anything else) will probably cut Vrabel a lot of slack if he can simply restore a degree of organization to what is now an organization in name only.. Everybody here knows how talent-bereft the team is.
Great article, Mike! The Vrabel hire has been treated as a fait accompli in the media, and most seem to accept it as a good hire (like your buddy Schatz on the podcast yesterday). But it’s been rubbing me the wrong way and you explained why perfectly.
Reminds me a bit of the Nebraska Cornhuskers hiring Scott Frost. He had success elsewhere, was a favorite son, it seemed a match made in heaven, then it all went sour quickly.
It's probably not an ideal choice, but the most important part of analyzing coaching hires is considering the alternatives. Which available candidate would have been a better choice for the Patriots? Andy Reid would be a perfect choice, but he's not available, so being overly critical of hiring decisions is a bit of a fool's errand because very few teams actually have the opportunity to hire a candidate with an established track record of professional competence. Guys like Andy Reid, Sean Payton or Harbaugh are rarely on the market and they can afford to be picky when they are. All other candidates carry some degree of risk and it makes sense to try to mitigate it to some extent. I don't think Vrabel will let them relive their glory days, but I also don't think anyone else will, either. Basic competence is a good choice, as it keeps the fanbase content, if not excited.
The best choice would be a younger coach outside of their system with a new outside-their-system GM coming with.
Risk is inherent in whatever choice is made. Vrabel is a risk, just a different kind of risk.
"HowieCoin." I laughed.
The narrative arc definitely resembles that of the post-Lombardi Packers, but that similarity doesn’t make Vrabel a bad hire any more than Detroit’s innovative and exciting offense will make Ben Johnson a good one. Both may ultimately prove true, but the details matter—and they matter far more than historical parallels, amusing and insightful as they may be. It’s also true that most coaches don’t succeed—that’s why Lombardi, Belichick, and Andy Reid are special. As a Pats fan, I like the decision, though not necessarily any more than I would have liked to see Johnson or Brian Flores hired. As you say, let’s see how the staff is fleshed out and how the draft goes. Thanks as always for a wonderful column.
The Patriots went on to forget their troubles with a big bowl of strawberry ice cream.
Yeah, but how many other coaches would slice off their own joints to get to the Super Bowl? Surely penile preservation is intangible that carries great weight in a conversation with Robert Kraft.
One thing Vrabel has over Forrest Gregg: His Titans teams were not (as far as I could tell) cheap, dirty, headhunting thugs. As a Bears fan, I hated those Packers far more than I hated the Favre/Rodgers versions---I can handle getting whupped on the scoreboard by a superior team, but not a bunch of scrubs coached actively to injure people.
I actually don't recall Gregg's thugs beating Ditka's Bears once (unless it was a scab game??), Tom.
Late December 1984 they did get them that one time, @ 30 seconds left down by 4 or so noodle-armed Rich Campbell threw a moonball down the left sideline. That white cornerback the Bears had had stopped to see what was happening, knowing Campbell couldn't throw it any farther than that anyway. But Campbell had peeled away from the rush and now was running forward, so his momentum carried the pass over the guy's head to the receiver for a TD. I believe Ditka/Buddy demoted the poor dude to the practice squad before reaching the locker room.
Thing is, Gregg wasn't thugging yet. That started the next season, and really kicked into gear in '86.
Gregg's Bengals teams weren't cheap, dirty headhunting thugs. Forrest didn't go Cave Man until he got to Green Bay. My guess is he aged into it.
You could also mention the Broncos hiring storm god Elway as another example of a team attempting to 'recapture the magic'.