Metaphysical Draft Needs

The Cowboys need a wake-up call. The Bears need urgency. The Vikings need closure. Experience draft needs that go beyond position groups and cut to the roots of each team's deepest problems.

Some needs are physical: the need for sleep, or a sandwich. Some are metaphysical: the need for inner peace, or confidence, or to never be asked what the Vikings will do at quarterback again, ever.

This article covers both the physical (or specific) needs and metaphysical needs of all 32 NFL teams.

(BAA means Best Available Athlete. You would have guessed that quickly enough.)

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Metaphysical Need: Optimism.

Specific Needs: Wide receiver, secondary.

The BillsMafia raced to the copium dispensary after the Stefon Diggs trade and have been chewing gummies like they were Starbursts ever since. Eh, Diggs was a pain-in-the-butt anyway. He did NOTHING at the end of last year. Watch: we’ll trade up for a new receiver and be better than ever! There’s no way we’re plunging into a mini-Ice Age? Right? Please?

Yes, Bills fans, Diggs was the Mayor of Surlytown. But no, replacing him will not be as easy as grabbing whatever receiver is left on the board when the 28th pick rolls around. 

The Bills may need to trade up into the teens to get a viable WR1. Under the circumstances, pivoting to cornerback (where talent is more plentiful in this year’s class) may be the better option. The Bills ranked 23rd in DVOA in stopping deep passes and 28th against #2 wide receivers last year, and that was before several free-agent departures in the secondary. 

Brandon Beane re-signed enough in-house talent to prevent a depth crisis: the Bills can indeed trade up if they must. So the Bills could solve their biggest problem or several of their smaller ones in the draft. But they cannot do both.

Miami Dolphins

Metaphysical Need: Forward momentum.

Specific Needs: Interior offensive line, defensive tackle, edge rusher.

The Dolphins swam in circles in free agency, spackling over the fissures appearing across their roster without getting appreciably better or solving any long-term problems. That would be fine if they were a perennial 13-win Super Bowl contender, but they are a perennial 9-to-11 win Wild Card afterthought that is much more fun to play on Madden in August than watch on the field come January.

Christian Wilkins will be a hard man to replace on the defensive line. Byron Murphy (Texas) may be gone when the Dolphins pick 21st overall; Johnny Newton (Illinois) would be a fine alternative.

The Dolphins lost Robert Hunt and will probably lose center Connor Williams from an offensive line which is hard to statistically evaluate: Mike McDaniel’s playground offense and the Tua Trio sometimes force defenders to run in every direction except forward.  

Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are coming off injuries on the edge. Shaq Barrett provides veteran depth, but the Dolphins could use more sizzle along their pass rush if they hope to win shootouts against the top AFC opponents.

It may sound silly, but the Dolphins should also consider adding a receiver in the second or third round. Every time Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle gets up slowly after a hit, the Dolphins’ season appears to be over. An Xavier Legette (South Carolina, burly slot threat) or Ja’Lynn Polk (Washington, jump-ball guy) could turbocharge the Dolphins offense further while providing a little insurance at the team’s position of strength.

New York Jets

Metaphysical Need: Normalcy.

Specific Needs: Wide receiver, offensive line.

Now that Aaron Rodgers is no longer a possible vice-presidential candidate nor pushing the boundaries of Facebook trutherism past “eccentric” and into “deeply troubling,” the Jets can focus on being a totally normal sports team, at least until Rodgers offers an opinion on Travis Kelce’s new role as a gameshow host (you know darn well he’s seething) or a minor earthquake suspiciously hits Central Jersey again.

Joe Douglas did a phenomenal job bulwarking the offensive line with Tyron Smith/Morgan Moses-types while adding receiver Mike Williams in free agency. The Jets can select the BAA on offense with the 10th pick, then grab a developmental tackle or offensive lineman in the third round, without worrying about anyone getting thrust immediately into a Win Now starting lineup. 

Fishing for a late-round quarterback makes sense in theory, but reminding Rodgers of his mortality will probably not benefit anyone.

By the way, John Pullano of the Jets website wrote this gem in mid-March:

The Green & White have selected 10th three times in their history, highlighted by the additions of Wisconsin WR Al Toon, a Ring of Honor member, in 1985 and Ohio State WR Garrett Wilson, the 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year, two years ago. 

You just know the unmentioned “other” 10th-overall pick was a real prize, don’t you? I was certain it would turn out to be Dee Milliner or Quentin Coples. But no, it was Russell Carter, a cornerback from SMU’s glory days drafted 10th overall in 1984. Carter had a fine rookie year, then suffered a zillion injuries, then became a flight attendant. Don’t erase the man like that!

Joe Douglas is ready to get to work. Photo by me.

New England Patriots

Metaphysical Need: Speed.

Specific Needs: Quarterback, wide receiver, offensive line. 

There’s a fine line between “patience” and “paralysis.” The Patriots have spent the last three months straddling that line. The team did some fine work on defense, most recently extending Kyle Dugger to keep a talented youngish nucleus intact. On offense, however, they have continued the late-Belichickian policy of mistaking role players (newcomers Antonio Gibson and K.J. Osburn, incumbents Hunter Henry and Kendrick Bourne) for difference makers. Can the Patriots identify top-shelf skill-position talent anymore? Do they know what it takes to develop a mere-mortal, mid-21st century quarterback prospect?

The Patriots will probably not so much select Drake Maye as have Maye selected for them by default with the third-overall pick. They need to add skill-position speed AND reinforce the offensive line with subsequent picks, otherwise Maye will take 55 sacks as a rookie while waiting for Osborn and Bourne to get open. If they opt for J.J. McCarthy over Maye, they risk repeating 2021 through 2023.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Metaphysical Need: Optimization.

Specific Needs: Wide receiver, cornerback, offensive tackle.

The Ravens rarely draft for immediate need and usually have successors waiting in the wings who are ready to play. You or I may see Brandon Stephens (picked on frequently by opponents late last year) and Ar’Darius Washington (former UDFA, inactive most of 2023) near the top of the cornerback depth chart and pencil in a cornerback with the 30th pick. Eric DeCosta and John Harbaugh may be comfortable with both players’ development and instead select, say, an edge rusher who will become a starter in 2026. 

(And yes, I realize I write variations on this intro every time I write about the Ravens in a draft context.)

Jeff Zrebiec, writing for The Athletic, listed the Ravens’ draft needs as “wide receiver, outside linebacker and cornerback help” a few weeks ago. Clifton Brown, writing for the team website, focused upon the offensive line. Brown, a veteran beat reporter now working for the team (job security is lovely, I’m told), is a) likely to have some inside insight; and b) also likely to be providing a smokescreen.

Brown points out that trading down and out of the first round is a possibility. Lots of playoff teams will be looking for wide receivers at the end of the first round. By punting on that need and trading down, the Ravens can do what they do best: stockpile lots of day-three picks to spend on draftnik darlings.

I believe they should consider taking the opposite approach. One instant-impact playmaker or edge rusher could vault the Ravens into the Super Bowl. The cost of trading up into Brian Thomas or Jared Verse range, however, is almost certainly higher than DeCosta prefers to pay. 

Cincinnati Bengals

Metaphysical Need: Reaffirmation.

Specific Needs: Defensive tackle, maybe wide receiver.

The Bengals are supposed to be Super Bowl contenders. They need to act that way. The fact that four of the five teams covered so far have wide receiver listed among their “specific needs” should be a sign from heaven to the Bengals to find a peaceful solution to their Tee Higgins problem.

As of the start of OTAs, Higgins sounds resigned to returning to the Bengals on the franchise tag. Things could change when the Bat Phone starts ringing during the draft, but I cannot imagine the Bengals picking up if the Bills or Chiefs are on the line. 

The Bengals defense allowed 4.7 yards per rush and ranked 29th in adjusted line yards, They also lost D.J. Reader to the Lions in free agency. If they retain Higgins, Texas’ Byron Murphy looks like an obvious choice at 16th overall. If they lose Higgins and fail to get a first-rounder in return, there is no reason to continue writing about the Cincinnati Bengals.  

Cleveland Browns

Metaphysical Need: A burn-the-boats mentality. 

Specific Needs: Defensive tackle, offensive tackle, wide receiver.

For some contenders, there is no tomorrow. For the Browns, there’s no dinnertime. They will explode in a fireball of eight-figure cap charges at the end of the 2024 season, whether they win the Super Bowl or collapse in a heap of failed ambitions and cosmic justice. They lack first and fourth-round picks due to the cause of — and only feasible solution to — all the team’s current problems: Deshaun Watson.

Fortunately, the Browns stacked their roster in free agency. Additions like Jerry Jeudy and Quinton Jefferson make the starting lineup as strong as it can possibly be. The Browns can take the BAA with the 54th overall pick; if it turns out to be an extra run-stuffer on the interior defensive line or a tackle prospect to develop behind Jedrick Wills, so much the better.

No team would benefit more from some gonzo Live Fast/Die Broke strategy to move up for Rome Odunze or trade for Brandon Aiyuk than the Browns. It’s just hard to imagine where they would find the resources needed to pull off such a stunt.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Metaphysical Need: Ibuprofen.

Specific Needs: Center, wide receiver, tackle.

The Justin Fields-Russell Wilson controversy promises to be all-consuming, sanity-challenging and ultimately inconclusive, and the Steelers haven’t experienced anything like it in modern organizational memory. The Steelers brace for attention they rarely receive in the offseason while creating the best possible offensive environment for both quarterbacks as if they were feathering the nest for some rookie. One slip and the experiment goes boom before it leaves the lab.

Nate Herbig, a former Eagles/Jets super-sub with 49 career snaps at center, is penciled in at that position. Left tackle Dan Moore has been developing backwards since his promising 2021 rookie season. If Broderick Jones moves from left to right tackle to replace Moore, someone must replace Jones.

Behind George Pickens, the Steelers have Van Jefferson (a poor man’s Allen Robinson), Quez Watkins (a poor man’s James Washington), Calvin Austin (a poor man’s Quez Watkins) and Denzel Mims (a poor man’s Denzel Mims) at wide receiver. The Steelers have not drafted a wide receiver in the first round since 2006, however. So look for them to focus on the offensive line or do what they love to do most – draft an edge rusher – in the first round. 

An extra third-round pick (Kenny Pickett trade) could turn into either a slot receiver or help at nickel cornerback.

AFC South

Houston Texans

Metaphysical Need: Finishing touches.

Specific Needs: Cornerback, depth.

Phew. What an offseason: Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter, Denico Autry, Joe Mixon. The Texans now have either a seasoned (if a little creaky) veteran or a promising-to-awesome 2022-23 draft pick at just about every position. They’ve fast-forwarded through the rebuild around C.J. Stroud to get to the good stuff.

Cornerback is the Texans’ one position of obvious remaining need: in 2023, the Texans ranked 28th in stopping WR1’s and 31st against WR3’s. Derek Stingley remains a little erratic on the left side, Desmond King is a journeyman in the slot, and the Jeff Okudah/C.J. Henderson Failed Prospect Brigade is best suited to compete for a role as the team’s eighth defensive back.

With no first-round pick but two selections in both the second and fourth rounds, the Texans can also find a playmaking tight end to back up Dalton Schultz, a tackle to develop behind Laremy Tunsil, and various young players to eventually replace the various older players they recently hired.

Indianapolis Colts

Metaphysical Need: An identity.

Specific Needs: Wide receiver, cornerback.

The Colts are not Anthony Richardson’s team, at least not yet: the lad has barely played. They aren’t Shane Steichen’s team, not when you close your eyes to picture Steichen and still end up seeing Nick Sirianni instead. Jim Irsay’s team? They aren’t quite hippy-dippy enough. Chris Ballard’s team? Sure, in the sense that they are built around above-average drafting and paralyzing free-agent phobia. Also: yawn.

You see the problem. A team that you cannot put your finger on is one that has not accomplished anything in a long time.

The Colts can’t draft an identity, but they can do what just about half the teams in the AFC are also trying to do: upgrade their secondary and their receiving corps. Outside cornerback is the most pressing need with the 15th overall pick, as penciled-in starters Juju Brents and not-a-stripper Dallis Flowers are entirely unproven. 

The Colts are scheduled to pick once per round, more-or-less in order, due to Ballard’s white-wallpaper imagination. By selecting BAA’s regardless of need, they can make their slightly-better-than-meh roster even more slightly better. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Metaphysical Need: A reboot.

Specific Needs: Wide receiver, cornerback.

The Jaguars collapsed like balsa-wood Tokyo in a kaiju movie at the end of last season. Trent Baalke then followed his inner muse in free agency. Calvin Ridley-to-Gabriel Davis and Darious Williams-to-Ronald Darby are steep downgrades. The Jaguars may ultimately have treaded water in free agency by adding Arik Armstead (aging damaged goods) and Darnell Savage (Harvey Dent in the secondary) while also extending Josh Allen, but they are being pulled out to sea by the undertow.

Ho-hum, the Jaguars are yet another team seeking a receiver and a cornerback, among other things (offensive line and tight end depth would be lovely). At least they pick 17th overall: ahead of the receiver-needy serious contenders. But that’s the Jaguars’ problem in a nutshell: they repositioned themselves in the middle of the pack at the exact moment that they should be establishing themselves among the Super Bowl inner circle.

Tennessee Titans

Metaphysical Need: A reason to care.

Specific Needs: Offensive tackle, defensive tackle, linebacker, quarterback.

The Titans need a quarterback but won’t admit it. They plan to do the Desmond Ridder/Sam Howell thing with Will Levis and act shocked/disappointed when it fails.

The Titans offensive line, which ranked 31st in adjusted sack rate last season, is so bad that it may make sense to use Levis as a stunt double instead of drafting and damaging a rookie. The Titans could get the top tackle in the draft seventh overall: Notre Dame’s Joe Alt or Washington’s Troy Fautanu would be my choices.

After that, the Titans should adopt the BAA policy. Calvin Ridley and L’Jarius Sneed solved immediate problems at wide receiver and cornerback, but the Titans cannot be reasonably described as “strong” at any position and need a generalized injection of youth and pure talent.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Metaphysical Need: Checks and balances.

Specific Needs: Quarterback, just about everything else.

You can feel the muscles tightening on the back of Broncos Nation’s neck as they try to feign an optimistic grin. Oh no, the Nation thinks, we aren’t a scrappy rebuilding team. We’re a vanity retirement project for a Fake Parcells. 

It’s not certain that Sean Payton is taking the Broncos organization on an ego trip to the center of the cosmos, but the fact that the team’s roster looks like a 2021 Saints scout team, coupled with Payton’s ho-hum attitude toward upgrading from Jarrett Freakin’ Stidham at quarterback, should set off many alarms.

The Broncos should, and might, grab whichever quarterback is left with the 12th overall pick: Bo Nix is a better quarterback now than Stidham ever was or will be. Otherwise, the Broncos need to trade down. They lack a second-round pick (the Payton trade, heh-heh) and need warm bodies at just about every position on the roster.

If Payton neither drafts a quarterback nor trades down, instead drafting Brock Bowers and shrugging his shoulders at his critics, buckle up for a long, dark era in Broncos history.

Las Vegas Raiders

Metaphysical Need: New car smell.

Specific Needs: Quarterback, offensive line, running back.

The Raiders have avoided typical Raiders pitfalls so far this offseason. There was no free agent spending spree, just a tactical strike to upgrade the defensive front with Christian Wilkins. There is very little wheezy rhetoric about a culture change; more importantly, there’s no related mandate to stuff the roster and payroll with “winners” from long-ago Super Bowl benches. Antonio Pierce may lean into the tough-guy persona a bit, but no one is going to notice once Jim Harbaugh starts really preening.

Because they pick 13th overall, with the Broncos and Vikings just ahead of them, the Raiders may get caught in a numbers game at quarterback. If the six plausible franchise quarterbacks are all gone – or if the Raiders don’t like the idea of ending up with the last dude picked at recess – they could take the BAA or consider a trade down. Offensive line reinforcements will still be available on Day Two if that BAA doesn’t turn out to be one of the top tackles.

Zamir White and Alexander Mattison are the Raiders’ top running backs right now. This year’s running back class is uninspiring, but the Raiders should look for value in the third-fourth round. There’s little depth behind Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, but trying to solve all the team’s problems in one offseason is yet another typical Raiders pitfall. 

If the Raiders are stuck with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew at quarterback, they should consider adding someone like ultra-toolsy Joe Milton (Tennessee) to the room as a kind of Powerball ticket. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Metaphysical Need: Cheap talent.

Specific Needs: Left tackle, wide receiver, defensive line.

Wanya Morris is currently penciled in as the Chiefs left tackle. Morris played adequately in five late-season starts as a rookie, so Andy Reid may trust the former third-round pick as his starter. On the other hand, offensive tackle may be the deepest position on the board when the Chiefs draft 32nd.

Rashee Rice’s current legal problems should not impact the team’s draft strategy much. Even if Rice is fully available or facing a short suspension in 2024, the Chiefs could stand to fumigate their whole receiver corps behind him and newcomer Marquise Brown.

The Chiefs drafted almost an entire secondary in 2022 and two-fifths of a championship-caliber offensive line in 2021. Rice and (maybe) Morris headline last year’s class. They need to keep slapping singles and doubles in the draft. Patrick Mahomes will provide the homers.

Los Angeles Chargers

Metaphysical Need: Talent.

Specific Needs: Wide receivers in bunches, defensive line.

Josh Palmer, a serviceable WR3-type, is currently the Chargers’ WR1. Quentin Johnston, a bust-in-progress deep threat who lost targets to journeyman special teamer Alex Erickson late last season, is the WR2. Tiny-shifty Derius Davis, a fine return man, is the WR3. Practice squader Simi Fehoko is the only other wide receiver on the roster. The Chargers should consider grabbing Malik Nabors fifth overall AND taking another wide receiver 37th. 

The interior defensive line has also been shaky for years; swapping Sebastian Joseph-Day for Poona Ford was a minor improvement at best.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

Metaphysical Need: A wakeup call.

Specific Needs: Interior offensive line, running back, depth.

Are you there, Jerrah? It’s opportunity knocking. And blowing up your phone. And calling neighbors to see if they have seen you out paying the whiskey delivery driver lately. 

As I wrote a few weeks ago, the Cowboys slumbered through free agency and suddenly appear unwilling to spend money, even on necessities like Micah Parsons/CeeDee Lamb extensions. 

If the Cowboys plan to win this year, the BAA strategy makes the most sense at 24th overall: help at any position would be welcome. They can plug holes along the offensive line in the second round (their third round pick belongs to the 49ers through the Trey Lance trade) and can add a running back or two on day three.

If Jerrah has decided to expose Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy to the elements on a mountaintop so he can start over in 2025, however – a drunken-Machiavellian strategy that just screams JERRY JONES – then the Cowboys should trade down for more picks, including a potential first-rounder in 2025.

In the event that Jerrah is neither focused on optimizing the current roster nor acting like a galactic puppet master, but is merely running the team based on whims and mood swings, get ready for another long, weird Cowboys season.

New York Giants

Metaphysical Need: Validation.

Specific Needs: Quarterback, wide receiver, linebacker, secondary.

Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen earned lots of benefit of the doubt when they reached the playoffs with a transitional roster in 2022. They squandered most of that benefit-of-the-doubt last year, not because they went 6-11, but because of HOW they went 6-11.

Schoen’s 2023 draft class contributed little, his 2022 draft class backslid and his expenditures (most notably, the Daniel Jones extension) paid negative dividends. Meanwhile Daboll squabbled with Wink Martindale and was consistently one story beat behind the Tyrod Taylor-Tommy DeVito narrative after Jones got hurt.

The Giants extinguished the tire fire along their offensive line by adding Jermaine Eluemunor, Jon Runyan and others in free agency, but their skill position talent may be the worst in the conference.

If ownership finally frees Schoen and Daboll of their obligation to pretend Jones still has franchise-quarterback potential, it would still leave sixth-overall pick J.J. McCarthy or Drake Maye throwing to Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt, Wen’Dale Robinson and Darren Waller, now four years removed from his last big season and reportedly disenchanted. Under the circumstances, riding with Jones and drafting a receiver may be the lesser of two evils.

Schoen cannot focus exclusively on offense, either: Xavier McKinney is gone from an already-rickety (except along the front) defense.

It’s going to take an A+++ draft to get the Giants out of their current predicament. Team Schoen probably doesn’t have one in them.  

Philadelphia Eagles

Metaphysical Need: Cornerbacks.

Specific Needs: Cornerbacks.

The Eagles operated this offseason like an individual throwing themselves into busywork to avoid processing grief. Late-season collapse? Organizational meltdown? Whatever do you mean? Look: we knitted ourselves a Saquon Barkley. And built a Bryce Huff in the shed. And baked a … Kenny Pickett? Gosh, that part is a manic blur.

Howie Roseman’s spending spree and the team’s coaching makeover have probably solved the Eagles’ existential problems: it’s hard for coaches and players to be at war when half the coaches and players are new. That leaves the team’s tangible problem: a cornerback corps consisting of aging Darius Slay, par-broiled James Bradberry, unpredictable returnee C.J. Gardner-Johnson and a bench that’s one little plastic cup of barbecue sauce away from being reclassified as burnt ends.

The Eagles should use their first-round pick and one of their second-rounders at cornerback. Their other second-rounder could become a genuine WR3 who is not DeVante Parker, who peaks in minicamp each year; or Parris Campbell, who somehow averaged 5.2 yards per catch in 2023. Or, yes Eagles fans, the team could add a linebacker.

Washington Commanders

Metaphysical Need: Proof of change.

Specific Needs: Quarterback, edge rusher, cornerback, tight end.

We’ve seen the Commanders change coaches before. We’ve seen them go on free agent spending sprees before. We’ve seen them draft a quarterback second overall before.

What we need to see this week is evidence that Josh Harris is a better owner than Dan Snyder. The only evidence we have so far is the fact that NO ONE COULD BE WORSE THAN SNYDER, which is rather compelling. But Harris’ weird NFL/NBA front-office thinktank, rumors of his heavy involvement in the draft process and the stray strange hire (Kliff Kingsbury) suggest that the Commanders swapped out a Saturday morning supervillain not for a savior, but just a typical wealthy dips**t.

Jayden Daniels is the right choice with the second pick. J.J. McCarthy would be the galactic-supergenius choice. Maybe GM Adam Peters will split the difference with Drake Maye.

The Commanders then pick twice in the second round. The mercenary army they signed in March spackled over most of their glaring needs, but Zach Ertz, Bobby Wagner and all the Cowboys pass rushers NOT named Micah Parsons or Tank Lawrence don’t really represent permanent solutions.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

Metaphysical Need: Urgency.

Specific Needs: Quarterback, edge rusher, defensive tackle, interior offensive line.

The Bears are not a rebuilding team. They need to show immediate progress in 2024. If Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus dawdle in this draft, they will have made selections for their successors. 

After selecting Caleb Williams, the Bears could be in position to select the second-best edge rusher on the board – USC’s Laiatu Latu, perhaps – with the ninth overall pick. (The ever-sack-needy Falcons pick eighth.) The Bears could also trade down from the ninth spot and should listen to any team hoping to leapfrog over the Vikings/Broncos/Raiders in search of a quarterback.

At other positions, sophomores Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens may be ready to step into larger roles on the defensive line, but neither impressed as rookies. Coleman Shelton is probably the starting center, and Ryan Bates/Matt Pryor add veteran depth on the interior offensive line, but the Bears should not take any chances in front of Williams, who was somewhat sack-prone at USC.

Detroit Lions

Metaphysical Need: Better luck at cornerback.

Specific Needs: Cornerback, wide receiver.

The cornerback position has become a resource sink for a Lions team that appears to have all the answers everywhere else. Carlton Davis’ arrival in free agency appeared to solve the team’s problems until Cam Sutton was released amid domestic battery charges and a subsequent attempt to evade justice. Emmanuel Mosley played just two snaps before suffering an ACL injury last year, Brian Branch fits best as a slot player, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson was shipped back to Philly after a typical CJGJ season of highlights, mistakes, injuries and strangeness.

The Lions’ wide receivers, besides Amon-Ra St. Brown, are tiny journeyman Khalif Raymond, speedy ceramic-handed perma-prospect Jameson Williams and the utterly nondescript Donovan Peoples-Jones. That’s the kind of receiving corps that gets you beat in the fourth quarter of a playoff game.

Green Bay Packers

Metaphysical Need: Confirmation.

Specific Needs: Safety, linebacker, offensive line.

The Packers are switching defensive identities again in their never-ending quest to find a coordinator who can be more than a scapegoat for their offensive head coaches. Jeff Hafley’s scheme will be built around four-man fronts, so the Packers should prioritize an off-ball outside linebacker: Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Clemson), Junior Colson (Michigan) or Edgerrin Cooper (Texas A&M) would be fine choices. Safety is thin behind newcomer Xavier McKinney, and some of the incumbent defensive linemen may not fit the new scheme.

With two picks in the second round (Aaron Rodgers trade), the Packers could seek upgrades on defense later and grab an offensive lineman to replace departures with the 25th pick. After all, they cannot assume that Jordan Love’s sudden late-season blossoming into Favrerodgershood was 100% real; they need to ensure Love has every necessary tool to remain successful.

Minnesota Vikings

Metaphysical Need: Closure.

Specific Needs: Quarterback, defensive front.

Cannot … talk … about … Vikings … quarterback … situation … anymore … must … survive … through … Thursday (theatrically Shatners to the floor).

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Metaphysical Need: Mild antidepressants.

Specific Needs: Edge rusher.

Aaron Schatz gave The Publication Formerly Known as Football Outsiders Almanac’s writers a sneak peak at pre-draft DVOA win-loss projections for 2024. Without giving too much away, I am a little worried about what will happen if the Falcons finish 8-9.

Imagine finishing under .500 while knowing Kirk Cousins will be your quarterback into his late 30s. It may be too much for fans to bear. The organization itself might just wither away in indifference, like the heroine in some 19th century parlor drama who is dying of what appears to be tuberculosis but is actually just boredom. I mean, they are already two-thirds of the way there.

Anyway, the Falcons need pass rushers, now and forever. They lost 13 of last year’s 42 sacks when Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree left town, leaving Arnold Ebiketie as their leading pass rusher. All you need to know about Ebiketie, a once-promising Penn State prospect, is that he had a hard time taking snaps away from Bud Dupree. 

The Falcons would be wise to double down on edge rushers on day two: there are lots of prospects like Marshawn Kneeland (big ornery dude, Eastern Michigan), Mo Kamara (productive hustle guy, Colorado State) and Jalyx Hunt (high-motor-and-character small-school guy, Houston Christian) who have a useful trait or three and could fill out the pass-rush rotation. Depth elsewhere on defense would be helpful. 

The offense is stacked the way a Jersey diner turkey club is stacked: it’s by no means delicious, but it’s edible, and it makes no sense to try to pile on anything else.

Carolina Panthers

Metaphysical Need: A reason to get out of bed and face the world.

Specific Needs: Actual good players.

The Panthers bottomed out at the start of free agency by trading Brian Burns and letting Jeremy Chinn, Frankie Luvu and others leave as free agents, replacing them with a rogue’s gallery of castoffs from organizations like the Broncos (Josey Jewell) and Giants (A’Shawn Robinson). The Panthers have since stabilized, signing one of their few useful incumbents (Derrick Brown) to an extension while adding enough Jadeveon Clowney and Diontae Johnson-types to make them look more like a second-year than a first-year expansion team.

The Panthers rank in the bottom quartile of the league at every position group right now, and of course they lack a first round pick. Going BAA with the 33rd and 39th (Burns trade) picks could net a cornerback to pair with oft-injured Jaycee Horn and undersized Bills import Dane Jackson; a wide receiver with the vertical capability that Johnson and Adam Thielen lack; a tight end who is not named after one of the kids Willy Wonka yeets (Tommy Tremble); an offensive tackle in case hot-and-cold Ikem Ekwonu backslides; or a defensive tackle who does not sound like one of the other kids Willy Wonka yeets (Shy Tuttle).

The Panthers are also prime candidates to select someone like local (ish) hero (ish) Spencer Rattler in the fifth round, fall in love with him in the preseason and replace Bryce Young with him during an October losing streak, hastening the end of the Young era. If Young is indeed that vulnerable, perhaps the end could use a little hastening. 

New Orleans Saints

Metaphysical Need: A financial-planning intervention.

Specific Needs: Edge rusher, offensive line, quarterback.

I’m not going to rant about the Saints’ cap-management habits for the umpteenth time. I will marvel instead at the fact that they lack third or fourth-round picks this year. This brief video from The Athletic explains why with more style than I ever could:

Most mock drafts have the Saints adding a tackle to replace Ryan Ramczyk, who is dealing with career-threatening knee cartilage deterioration. The ailment is so bad that the Saints extracted a pay cut from their starting right tackle instead of giving him the customary debt-extending contract through the year 2037. That’s Saintsenomics for you: NOT overpaying an injured, fading veteran was a huge victory for them.

Oh, I promised not to rant about the Saints’ cap-management habits.

Anyway, offensive line help makes sense with the 15th pick. A developmental edge rusher or potential starter at guard (James Hurst and Cesar Ruiz are un-excitingly adequate) make sense with the 45th pick. After that … hey, don’t worry about it: Demario Davis will never get old, Alvin Kamara is still a little better than replacement level, Derek Carr just needed one entire year to acclimate to his new surroundings, and (on a less sarcastic note) an easy schedule could still result in eight or nine wins.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Metaphysical Need: Futurevision.

Specific Needs: Edge rusher, linebacker, interior offensive line.

We all know that the Baker Mayfield/Mike Evans Buccaneers will go 9-8, embarrass the Falcons, win the Sun Belt Conference and get trounced by a Wild Card team in the playoffs. Some things are preordained. But shouldn’t the Bucs aim higher? They cannot live like this forever. 

NARRATOR: In the NFC South, they can absolutely live like this forever

Fine. But just because expensive mediocrity is a divisional tradition doesn’t mean that the Bucs cannot at least strive for more.

Yaya Diaby is now the Bucs’ best edge rusher, and most mocks have them taking someone like Florida State’s Jared Verse 26th overall.

An interior lineman like converted Duke tackle Graham Barton is also a possibility: Aaron Stinnie is gone, while Robert Hainsley and Cody Mauch backslid once Tom Brady stopped directing the offense. 

The Bucs pick too far back in the first round to enter the rookie quarterback sweepstakes, but they could really use a developmental option behind Mayfield. As always, the Bucs could use a better-than-replacement-level running back, but this is not the draft to find one.

Like the Cowboys, the Buccaneers should consider trading out of the first round in exchange for a high 2025 draft pick. Also like the Cowboys, they may have a hard time finding a suitor that is all that desperate to select someone so late in the first round.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

Metaphysical Need: Dudes.

Specific Needs: Wide receiver(s), defensive line(men), linebacker(s), everything but quarterback. 

Remember when Kliff Kingsbury and Steve Keim set out to corner the market on talented-but-kinda-weird wide receivers for Kliff’s Random Madden Button Mashing offense? Check out the Cardinals’ receiving corps now:

Greg Dortch: the little slot guy who got all the targets whenever Kingsbury was mad at Rondale Moore;

Michael Wilson: well-built, toolsy sophomore who had some moments in 2023. He’d be a fine WR4.

Chris Moore: Gosh, I interviewed Moore in Owings Mills when he was the Ravens’ veteran WR4 way back in 2019. Remember: the Ravens’ wide receiver corps was usually dreadful.

Zach Pascal: The Eagles’ failed “heavy slot” guy two bad ideas ago.

Andre Baccellia: My mom has all his albums.

The Cardinals’ defensive line currently consists of three journeyman free agent acquisitions. Someone named Starling Thomas V, who I believe was a Golden Age comic book artist, is penciled in across from Sean Murphy-Bunting at cornerback.

You get the idea. The Cardinals are Kyler Murray, Budda Baker and a few Paris Johnson/Tre McBride-level prospects. They have two first-round picks and three third-rounders, so they are certain to increase their talent level and likely to earn lots of “A” draft grades. With their needs and resources, they really need to aim for an A+++.

Los Angeles Rams

Metaphysical Need: A blue chip.

Specific Needs: Defensive tackle, edge rusher, skill-position depth. 

The stars-’n’-scrubs model is a relic of the past. 

The Rams have replaced their scrubs with adequate-to-good NFL players, whether through productive late-round drafting or a free agent haul highlighted by defensive backs Kamren Curl, Tre’Davious White and Darious Williams.

Aaron Donald’s retirement, on the other hand, leaves the Rams at least one star short of a full constellation. Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams sound like a Wild Card nucleus, not the backbone of a Super Bowl team, and only two of those players are on the upsides of their careers.

There’s no “replacing” Donald, but one of the top interior defenders should be on the board when the Rams pick 19th overall. The Rams could also speculate on a square-peg edge rusher: 19th is a reasonable spot to draft toolsy Chop Robinson or massive Mizzou edge Darius Robinson.

There is little behind Nacua and Kupp at wide receiver or Williams at running back. The third round (two picks) would be a great place to search for a traditional size-speed vertical threat. The sixth round (four picks) is a fine place to sift for a running back or two among this year’s unimpressive class.

San Francisco 49ers

Metaphysical Need: Serenity.

Specific Needs: Edge rusher, interior offensive line, long-range replacements.

Ennui. Angst. First-world problems. Whatever you call the crushing feeling of luxurious success spiked with bitter disappointment, the 49ers run the risk of falling prey to it.

The 49ers lack the long-term cap flexibility to extend Brandon Aiyuk’s contract. They will likely wait until Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabors and a few others leave the board in round one, then try to get a panicky AFC contender like the Bills to offer them something juicy in exchange for Aiyuk’s services. The 49ers would not need to immediately replace Aiyuk in the first round – the team has plenty of weapons – but the 49ers must seek to compensate for a downgrade at receiver with an upgrade elsewhere.

Edge rusher is only a position of relative need: Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos are worthy complements to Nick Bosa. Perhaps an interior lineman with disruptive capability (Florida State’s Braden Fiske) would make the pass rush even more terrifying.

The interior offensive line needs a sprucing up. Trent Williams will not live forever at left tackle.  

Oh, and the 49ers will fall from their perch quickly if George Kittle (31 in October) or Christian McCaffrey (a running back) loses a step. The 49ers should spend some of their two third round picks and three fourth-rounders on unique, versatile system fits like Florida State running-back-turned-tight-end Jaheim Bell, hard-blocking Utah receiver Devaughn Vele or Purdue all-purpose guy Tyrone Tracy. 

Seattle Seahawks

Metaphysical Need: Direction.

Specific Needs: Tight end, interior offensive line, defensive tackle.

The Seahawks are not really rebuilding. Or rebranding. Or even reskinning. They’re young and talented at a few non-glamor positions (offensive tackle, the secondary), paper thin at some others (see above), and headlined by a cast of maxed-out, well-known skill position veterans. So … they’re retracing? Regurgitating? Reclining until the 49ers implode?

The Seahawks may be the most logical landing spot for Georgia tight end Brock Bowers: Noah Fant is one of those maxed-out veterans, Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson are gone, and 16th overall is not too soon for a tight end. With no second-round pick, a trade-down would also be in-character for John Schneider. 

Olu Oluwatimi may be ready to take over at center, but fellow sophomore Anthony Bradford got pushed around at right guard as a rookie, and the Seahawks lost several veterans on the interior line. Schneider will probably seek reinforcements in the third round and/or with one of his picks in the fourth.

The Twelfth Man may be hoping for an alternative to Geno Smith in the draft, but newcomer Sam Howell is a better prospect than anyone the Seahawks will find after the first round.