The Cowboys need a wake-up call. The Bears need urgency. The Vikings need closure. Experience draft needs that go beyond position groups and cut to the roots of each team's deepest problems.
I hit the "like" button before I started reading. I've been reading for about 15 minutes, and 1) I have no regrets; 2) I have like half the post left for later. Mike Tanier leftovers! Great stuff, served "family sized."
If the Pats don't actually like Maye, they ought to trade the pick. It would take just 2 QB-salivating teams who DO like Maye to enable the Pats getting a king+queen+other assorted royalty-sized ransom for a guy they're not sold on.
Wow, Mike, you think all 6 qbs could be gone by the time the Raiders are on the clock at #13? That would make 2021 look considered..... and 1983 like a real slow day.
Mike's buddy Aaron Schatz's article on QBase this year gives Nix a 20%+ chance of being an above-average starter in the NFL. If a GM comes to a similar conclusion through whatever scouting process their team follows and you don't already have a star QB (or a guy being paid like one), then the economics of the salary cap says you spend a 1st round pick on him. Four others seem already sure to go in round one, so Nix makes 5. That's where I think we end up, with Pennix taken sometime on day two. (QBase gives Pennix roughly half the chance of Nix at being above-average at the NFL level. QBase does not like Rattler at all.)
Another buddy, or at least former co-worker, of Mike's - Bill Barnwell - argues the salary cap economics are a lot more extreme. To join the two, a Schatzwell analysis, you'd say #12 pick will get $5m/year rookie deal. The average second quartile qb earns $38m so Penix only needs 13% chance of being second quartile to be worth the pick. Qbase says 19% chance of being an adequate starter, so go for it Sean Payton!
This feels like sophistry to me, but I might just not have brought my aged mind up to speed with position-agnostic-rookie-salary-scale.
And it makes a reaching for a qb in hope presentable as smart economics.
Economics is data-driven, not theory-driven. Or model-driven.
Reaching for a QB in the draft has worked out pretty damn poorly for quite a few drafts now. So it's actually been dumb economics.
Why has it been so? Well, let's work off of Nix just for the sake of illustration. Does Qbase state he has a 20% chance of being an above-average starter right away in Year 1? Or just however many years into his career? The further into his career it takes Nix to become above-average, the less you make out on it from a $$$ standpoint.
Second issue: opportunity costs. It also works out really great to have an above-average offensive tackle on a rookie contract. Or above-average edge rusher. Or receiver. Or safety. An above-average anybody, really. Any high or even middle 1st Rounder at a position other than QB is ready to play immediately. (to the extent he's actually able to play that one level higher) So the $$$ return is both quicker and more certain.
BTW, lots of experts think I am crazy to think all 6 will go. Ben Robinson points out how unprecedented that would be. And the Vegas over is 4.5. So yes, history says one or two will slip. I am glad to not have to speculate about it anymore in about 60 hours.
Good points, Big Richie. Which is why if you are paying big bucks to a QB anyway, you use your 1st round pick on another position. If you're not paying big bucks to a QB, because you have a cheap guy that you feel good about, you also surround him with talent in other areas. But if neither of the above, apply, the value of taking another position is much less than the chance that you find the next CJ Stroud that you can underpay for the next 5 years (the gap between journeyman and rookie contract being a lot bigger for QBs than for other positions, even OL, DE or WR).
Note that I'm not talking about trading away additional picks to make that selection, that's another topic.
"(T)he value of taking another position is much less than the chance that you find the next CJ Stroud" is true or false according to what exactly that "value" and what exactly that "chance" are, Ti-Cats.
If you instead wind up with a Bryce Young or a Kenny Pickett or a Zach Wilson or a Trey Lance or a Justin Fields or a Mac Jones or a Daniel Jones or a Baker Mayfield (mostly useless his first 5 years, which is why he was available free the previous 2 seasons) or a Sam Darnold or a Josh Rosen or a Mitch Trubisky or a Paxton Lynch or a Jameis Winston or a Marcus Mariota or a Blake Bortles or a Johnny Manziel, you instead got squat out of a very valuable resource. Squat. Yes I've cherry-picked the misses from the last 10 drafts. But there are so, so many of them. Even 'hits' like Love, Tua and Goff, if they don't actually hit 'above average' until season 3 or 4, you haven't gotten all that much $$$-wise out of them.
Anyways, this is a research question, Ti-Cats. Going off of Pro Football Reference, either of us could add up the WAR provided by QB picks+$$$ saved in comparison to what free agents require, then compare that to what happened with the non-QBs drafted in like slots. (how much excess $$$ value did Myles Garrett return in comparison to Burrow; then factor in compared to Jameis Winston and so on) I doubt all that work is worth your time, and I'll vouch it sure ain't worth mine.
But…but the Panthers insist they have magically become good enough to win the division now! All problems have been fixed by jettisoning half of last season’s top ten defense and picking up a WR3 and an extra second round pick for Burns. It’s all sunshine and Superbowls and sunshine from here on.
I want the Packers to take RB Trey Benson at pick 58. The drop off from Josh Jacobs to backup AJ Dillon is the biggest gap on the roster. When Jones got healthy at last season's end, everyone saw how a strong run game juiced the Packer offense. Benson runs a lot like Jones and could smoothly take the RB1 role in two or three years. Jacobs and Benson would be a strong duo and would raise the RB room to the level of the TE and WR rooms in depth and talent.
“Denzel Mims (a poor man’s Denzel Mims)” had me cackling.
I hit the "like" button before I started reading. I've been reading for about 15 minutes, and 1) I have no regrets; 2) I have like half the post left for later. Mike Tanier leftovers! Great stuff, served "family sized."
Thanks, Mike.
Thanks for you support!
Need for sleep? Did trump write this? KAPOW.
If the Pats don't actually like Maye, they ought to trade the pick. It would take just 2 QB-salivating teams who DO like Maye to enable the Pats getting a king+queen+other assorted royalty-sized ransom for a guy they're not sold on.
Wow, Mike, you think all 6 qbs could be gone by the time the Raiders are on the clock at #13? That would make 2021 look considered..... and 1983 like a real slow day.
Roll up, roll up for the Surplus Value Lottery!
Mike's buddy Aaron Schatz's article on QBase this year gives Nix a 20%+ chance of being an above-average starter in the NFL. If a GM comes to a similar conclusion through whatever scouting process their team follows and you don't already have a star QB (or a guy being paid like one), then the economics of the salary cap says you spend a 1st round pick on him. Four others seem already sure to go in round one, so Nix makes 5. That's where I think we end up, with Pennix taken sometime on day two. (QBase gives Pennix roughly half the chance of Nix at being above-average at the NFL level. QBase does not like Rattler at all.)
I think that makes total sense.
Another buddy, or at least former co-worker, of Mike's - Bill Barnwell - argues the salary cap economics are a lot more extreme. To join the two, a Schatzwell analysis, you'd say #12 pick will get $5m/year rookie deal. The average second quartile qb earns $38m so Penix only needs 13% chance of being second quartile to be worth the pick. Qbase says 19% chance of being an adequate starter, so go for it Sean Payton!
This feels like sophistry to me, but I might just not have brought my aged mind up to speed with position-agnostic-rookie-salary-scale.
And it makes a reaching for a qb in hope presentable as smart economics.
Economics is data-driven, not theory-driven. Or model-driven.
Reaching for a QB in the draft has worked out pretty damn poorly for quite a few drafts now. So it's actually been dumb economics.
Why has it been so? Well, let's work off of Nix just for the sake of illustration. Does Qbase state he has a 20% chance of being an above-average starter right away in Year 1? Or just however many years into his career? The further into his career it takes Nix to become above-average, the less you make out on it from a $$$ standpoint.
Second issue: opportunity costs. It also works out really great to have an above-average offensive tackle on a rookie contract. Or above-average edge rusher. Or receiver. Or safety. An above-average anybody, really. Any high or even middle 1st Rounder at a position other than QB is ready to play immediately. (to the extent he's actually able to play that one level higher) So the $$$ return is both quicker and more certain.
BTW, lots of experts think I am crazy to think all 6 will go. Ben Robinson points out how unprecedented that would be. And the Vegas over is 4.5. So yes, history says one or two will slip. I am glad to not have to speculate about it anymore in about 60 hours.
Good points, Big Richie. Which is why if you are paying big bucks to a QB anyway, you use your 1st round pick on another position. If you're not paying big bucks to a QB, because you have a cheap guy that you feel good about, you also surround him with talent in other areas. But if neither of the above, apply, the value of taking another position is much less than the chance that you find the next CJ Stroud that you can underpay for the next 5 years (the gap between journeyman and rookie contract being a lot bigger for QBs than for other positions, even OL, DE or WR).
Note that I'm not talking about trading away additional picks to make that selection, that's another topic.
"(T)he value of taking another position is much less than the chance that you find the next CJ Stroud" is true or false according to what exactly that "value" and what exactly that "chance" are, Ti-Cats.
If you instead wind up with a Bryce Young or a Kenny Pickett or a Zach Wilson or a Trey Lance or a Justin Fields or a Mac Jones or a Daniel Jones or a Baker Mayfield (mostly useless his first 5 years, which is why he was available free the previous 2 seasons) or a Sam Darnold or a Josh Rosen or a Mitch Trubisky or a Paxton Lynch or a Jameis Winston or a Marcus Mariota or a Blake Bortles or a Johnny Manziel, you instead got squat out of a very valuable resource. Squat. Yes I've cherry-picked the misses from the last 10 drafts. But there are so, so many of them. Even 'hits' like Love, Tua and Goff, if they don't actually hit 'above average' until season 3 or 4, you haven't gotten all that much $$$-wise out of them.
Anyways, this is a research question, Ti-Cats. Going off of Pro Football Reference, either of us could add up the WAR provided by QB picks+$$$ saved in comparison to what free agents require, then compare that to what happened with the non-QBs drafted in like slots. (how much excess $$$ value did Myles Garrett return in comparison to Burrow; then factor in compared to Jameis Winston and so on) I doubt all that work is worth your time, and I'll vouch it sure ain't worth mine.
But…but the Panthers insist they have magically become good enough to win the division now! All problems have been fixed by jettisoning half of last season’s top ten defense and picking up a WR3 and an extra second round pick for Burns. It’s all sunshine and Superbowls and sunshine from here on.
I want the Packers to take RB Trey Benson at pick 58. The drop off from Josh Jacobs to backup AJ Dillon is the biggest gap on the roster. When Jones got healthy at last season's end, everyone saw how a strong run game juiced the Packer offense. Benson runs a lot like Jones and could smoothly take the RB1 role in two or three years. Jacobs and Benson would be a strong duo and would raise the RB room to the level of the TE and WR rooms in depth and talent.
Take MarShawn Lloyd!
Cowboys gave up their 4th round pick this year for Trey Lance, not 3rd*
Thanks! It is all becoming a blur.