Predictions, Proclamations and Position Statements

An obligatory "Hey, the season is here!" post with a few award predictions, messages for subscribers and official policy statements on a few controversial quarterbacks.

A Super Bowl prediction is a wish for the NFL season you wish to see. You can wager on chalk, you can furrow your brow over a thousand variables, you can pledge fealty to a system which – when tasked with predicting the results of 285 games across six months – might give you a 5% edge over educated guesswork and a dartboard. Or you can steer by the stars and dream of new heroes, fresh storylines and mild-to-moderate surprises. 

Super Bowl Prediction: Detroit Lions 31, Houston Texans 23

Lions over Texans? That’s as worthy a swing at the pinata as any other. It gives us two weeks of Dan Campbell in mid-winter; that alone makes it appealing. It represents a coronation of C.J. Stroud and redemption for Jared Goff, both of which would be welcome developments. Penei Sewell, DeMeco Ryans, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Danielle Hunter, Laremy Tunsil and Aidan Hutchinson? Let’s give some of these characters the spotlight for once. Stefon Diggs can play the heel.

The 49ers arrive at the start of the 2024 season with a clenched jaw. Jerry Jones wants to turn the Cowboys around and drive home. The 2023 Eagles tested poorly with focus groups, so the 2024 team got a Joss Whedon reshoot. The Lions are built from old-fashioned Detroit sweat and steel. They’re ready for some drama-free kneecap munching. 

The AFC has grown complacent in its hierarchy: the Chiefs as the king, the Ravens and Bills as scheming courtiers and the Jets and Browns as sweaty jesters. The Texans renounced their sins and have endured their penance. Doesn’t that make them worthy of the Grail? 

A wager on a Lions-Texans Super Bowl comes with a +6000 moneyline: not too chalky and not too zany. I placed a small token wager. For me, a Super Bowl prediction is also content – something to trumpet on radio shows and podcasts – and my whole career is basically a giant NFL parlay.

Most Valuable Player

If the Texans win the AFC, then Stroud (+850) will be a shoo-in for MVP. All of the other suspects have receiving corps that are so good that they cast a shadow on their accomplishments (Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa) or so weak that they’re a liability (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen), plus a few injury cases (Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers). Stroud is in the sweet spot. So is Jordan Love, but I think the Love Train is barreling into the season completely out of control.

Offensive Player of the Year

The prime candidates are a thrill to watch but a bore to wager. Enjoy Tyreek Hill at +700 and Christian McCaffrey +850 if you like; their he should REALLY be in the MVP conversation narratives are sure to be fruitful and compelling this year. (Zzzzz…) Puka Nacua is fully recovered from his training camp injury and chilling at +2800. Nacua could easily catch 125 passes this year while Hill and CMC climb over the crests of their careers and begin to descend. If you are going to wager on an award like this in early September, you might as well call your shot. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Another boring choice among thrilling candidates. Picking the DPOY in September boils down to rounding up a half-dozen established pass rushers and then betting on a die roll. I am doubling down on my Lions optimism and commitment to youth (and tasty moneyline) by picking Aidan Hutchinson at +1100. Hutchinson finished second in the NFL with 99 pressures to Maxx Crosby’s 100 last year, with Micah Parsons third at 87. Convert some more of those pressures into sacks and see what happens. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Caleb Williams (+135) is the heavy favorite, and even the most dedicated contrarian must admit he deserves to be: he has the talent, the pedigree, the supporting cast and the preseason buzz. I endorse Williams as a ORoY candidate, but my sweet tooth for wacky storylines/moneylines forced me to wager one dollar on Carson Steele at +25000. Drinks will be on me if the undrafted Chiefs fullback scores 15 short-yardage touchdowns while all the rookie quarterbacks, Williams included, do rookie quarterback stuff. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year

The 2024 rookie class lacked a Bosa, a Watt, or a lad like Hutchinson who looks like he should have been named Bosa or Watt. Laiatu Latu (+425) won a trophy case full of collegiate awards and was a polished edge rusher at UCLA, but he coasted under the draft-hype radar due to his age (he turns 24 on New Year’s Eve) and backstory (a neck injury prompted a brief retirement), then disappeared into the anonymity of the Colts roster. Latu is the DROY favorite, but he’s enough of an underdog for me to dig him.

Comeback Player of the Year.

Sigh. Aaron Rodgers at +140. If you don’t like the juice or the human, don’t place the wager. (I’m not.) Joe Burrow (+400) lacks narrative sizzle for a narrative-driven award. Kirk Cousins (+500) could outperform Rodgers or benefit from a lack of Big Apple scrutiny if both he and Rodgers are gimpy, but never, ever, EVER bet on the Falcons.

Coach of the Year

I hate, loathe, despise COTY wagers. Neither Campbell nor Ryans will win if they reach the Super Bowl, because both lack that cheesy Best New Artist Grammy quality that the voters adore. Jared Mayo at +3000 for keeping the Patriots at the bottom of the Wild Card picture through Thanksgiving? Sure, whatever.

Programming Notes

You can skip this part if you know it all. The Substack overseers recommend frequent reminders of what subscribers can expect, and they have not steered me wrong so far. 

If you watch or listen to the Between the Hashmarks podcast hosted and produced by Matt Lombardo, you heard most of the predictions above on Tuesday. Matt and I will be podcasting every Tuesday. You can subscribe through the Between the Hashmarks Substack or Apple podcasts. All through the season, we will round up the biggest news of the week, talk to special guests and get the inside scoop from Matt’s Rolodex of insiders. 

The Schatz and Tanier podcast at FTN Fantasy will run on Mondays and Thursdays each week, with 11 AM livestreams. Aaron and I talk about Sunday’s action on Monday, with Aaron providing a sneak peak at pre-MNF DVOA rankings. On Thursdays, Aaron reveals the win probabilities for Sunday’s biggest games, I review the injury reports, then we both look at the point spreads and say, “ehh, that’s right on the line, I’m not playing it.”

Too Deep Zone will not host any in-game chats this year. But all subscribers are invited to join the DVOA Discord, moderated by Bryan Knowles and featuring occasional appearances by many former Football Outsiders. I am usually there on Thursday nights, drinking substantially. Bryan and the gang chat all day Sunday. Come hang out with some folks who take their NFL very seriously, but in a not-too-serious way. 

As for the Too Deep Zone, you will find Walkthrough every Monday, a feature like TankWatch, StatWatch or Mailbag or every Wednesday and a column every Thursday or Friday, with the late-week schedule subject to reduction around the holidays. Make the Zone your favorite cafe/microbrewery/patisserie/dispensary all season long!

Finally, folks looking for the old-school social networking experience can find me on Threads @MikeTanier. That’s where I post most of my NFL musings these days. I remain on TwiXter at the same handle but am mostly using that handle to scream political messages into the void of Phony Stark’s cyberpunk hellscape. I am also on Bluesky @MikeTanier but that social network may not be everyone’s mug of cocoa. 

Official Policy Statements on Justin Herbert and Brock Purdy

Too Deep Zone will officially abandon its position that Justin Herbert is an overrated social-media phenomenon if, in the 2024 NFL season, Herbert:

• Leads the Los Angeles Chargers to a playoff berth, AND

• Finishes among the Top 12 QBs in DYAR.

Note that both conditions must be met. Herbert will maintain his status as an above-average quarterback who was overhyped into the mesosphere by a hivemind of influencers if the Chargers grind out a 9-8 record in low-scoring muckfests against the Raiders and Broncos, or if he finishes ninth in DYAR based on high-volume passing for a terrible team. 

Too Deep Zone considers “Justin Herbert is an Elite Quarterback” an extraordinary claim, yet we are willing to settle for the highly-ordinary proof listed above. We think even the most dedicated members of the Herbert Hive would agree that the benchmarks listed above are reasonable and invite them to establish benchmarks of their own. They won’t.

Too Deep Zone will officially cease questioning Brock Purdy’s merits as a top-tier franchise quarterback if, during the 2024 NFL season, 

• The San Francisco 49ers win at least one playoff game; AND

• Purdy finishes among the top eight QBs in DYAR.

Purdy, of course, benefits from an outstanding supporting cast, defense and scheme. Pointing to those factors as the primary reasons for Purdy’s success, however, will amount to special pleading if he remains statistically excellent while helming one of the NFL’s top contenders. Just as the onus is upon Herbert to justify his reputation for excellence, the onus may soon be on Purdy skeptics to provide better evidence for any “product of the system” claims than simply listing Purdy’s teammates.

In the event of unusual circumstances – The Chargers reach the Super Bowl on a dozen Herbert comebacks, but he finishes 14th in DYAR; Purdy gets hurt and Joshua Dobbs plays at an MVP level – Too Deep Zone reserves the right to amend the benchmarks listed above.  

We will check back at the midpoint of the season to see whether Herbert and Purdy are trending toward their goals. Someone remind me if I forget! Too Deep Zone is not afraid to quantify its assertions, because a claim that cannot be falsified is nothing but a take. 

See everyone on Monday morning for a good old-fashioned WALKTHROUGH!!!!