An obligatory "Hey, the season is here!" post with a few award predictions, messages for subscribers and official policy statements on a few controversial quarterbacks.
BTW, this was written before The Athletic published their QB rankings, which I found interesting in the way I find Album of the Year rankings interesting: full of careful observations that are enlightening but untethered to expected outcomes or results.
As a hater of the first degree, I'm really torn about that SB pick. On the one hand, not having, say, the Jets or 49ers in the game means I don't have to worry about them winning. However, I would really enjoy watching them lose a championship. Neither the Lions nor Texans is particularly hateable, though I'm sure I'd figure something out before kickoff--probably something related to Ted Cruz.
I like Sam Darnold +6000 for CPOY. Obviously he needs not so much a comeback as a quantum jump beyond where he was, but he has good weapons and a high likelihood to be trailing.
Mike and I are reading from the same book (if maybe not quite the same page) on Brock Purdy, so I point this out in jest more than anything else, buuuutt...
Brock Purdy having a top-8 DYAR finish and winning a playoff game the year after leading the league in DYAR would certainly show him to be a top-tier franchise quarterback. You know, like Mark Rypien was in 1992 (7th in DYAR, one playoff win).
It would at the very least make sure he was clear from the riffraff. After all, what kind of quarterback (2022 Patrick Mahomes) would fail to be top 8 in DYAR (1997 Dan Marino) the year after the led the league? (1993 John Elway). No one worth mentioning, obviously.
Repeatability of absolute DYAR is a better measure though. DYAR ranking is susceptible to distribution of DYAR amongst other qbs which even Tom Brady can’t control. And yes, I am a pedant.
Both Purdy and Herbert have satisfied those conditions already (Herbert in 2022, Purdy last year). So in order to win your approval they need to... do exactly what they did before?
Not to white night for you, but this makes a lot of sense to me. Your top team quarterback series has a ton of examples of a historically notable quarterbacks who have one outlier season in terms of DYAR, at seemingly random points in their career. Something that does seem to separate the greats from the goods is repetition.
Mike’s Super Bowl, MVP, and OPOY picks all rely on Stroud and Nacua avoiding sophomore slumps. I’m not really sure how real sophomore slumps are (statistically), but I’d feel nervous about those bets
BTW, this was written before The Athletic published their QB rankings, which I found interesting in the way I find Album of the Year rankings interesting: full of careful observations that are enlightening but untethered to expected outcomes or results.
Just jumped over to the Athletic to check out their rankings. I think I fell asleep before even getting to DROY…
Commenters on the Athletic story ranking the 2024 teams:
#1 - Philly blows!!!!
#2 - So does your mom
Are we ready for some football??? Give me Hank Williams train songs over Carrie Underwear Faith Chill Blonde Country Babe of the Year. +25,000
Hank Junior, proof that like diabetes, talent skips a generation.
As a hater of the first degree, I'm really torn about that SB pick. On the one hand, not having, say, the Jets or 49ers in the game means I don't have to worry about them winning. However, I would really enjoy watching them lose a championship. Neither the Lions nor Texans is particularly hateable, though I'm sure I'd figure something out before kickoff--probably something related to Ted Cruz.
I like Sam Darnold +6000 for CPOY. Obviously he needs not so much a comeback as a quantum jump beyond where he was, but he has good weapons and a high likelihood to be trailing.
Cannot argue with that juice!
I want more falsifiable takes. I'm a scientist and I demand hypothesis testing over entertainment!
I am in the "Why Can't We Have Both" camp
Mike and I are reading from the same book (if maybe not quite the same page) on Brock Purdy, so I point this out in jest more than anything else, buuuutt...
Brock Purdy having a top-8 DYAR finish and winning a playoff game the year after leading the league in DYAR would certainly show him to be a top-tier franchise quarterback. You know, like Mark Rypien was in 1992 (7th in DYAR, one playoff win).
It would at the very least make sure he was clear from the riffraff. After all, what kind of quarterback (2022 Patrick Mahomes) would fail to be top 8 in DYAR (1997 Dan Marino) the year after the led the league? (1993 John Elway). No one worth mentioning, obviously.
Did any of those QBs have the weapons the 49ers have?
Most of them were fairly young in the 1990s, so they may not have helped Elway as much as they would help Purdy.
Repeatability of absolute DYAR is a better measure though. DYAR ranking is susceptible to distribution of DYAR amongst other qbs which even Tom Brady can’t control. And yes, I am a pedant.
Both Purdy and Herbert have satisfied those conditions already (Herbert in 2022, Purdy last year). So in order to win your approval they need to... do exactly what they did before?
Yes.
Herbert met a bare minimum exactly once. He must at least reach that bare minimum again.
Purdy met a high standard once. He must demonstrate that he can meet it a second time to illustrate that it was not illusory.
Repeatability is important!
Not to white night for you, but this makes a lot of sense to me. Your top team quarterback series has a ton of examples of a historically notable quarterbacks who have one outlier season in terms of DYAR, at seemingly random points in their career. Something that does seem to separate the greats from the goods is repetition.
Mike’s Super Bowl, MVP, and OPOY picks all rely on Stroud and Nacua avoiding sophomore slumps. I’m not really sure how real sophomore slumps are (statistically), but I’d feel nervous about those bets
I mean they’re season long bets on the NFL. There are dozens of ways it could go sideways.
Mike, most importantly, when are you resuming the top 5 QBs series?
I followed you on Threads.
Like the SB pick. Did round robin SB plays on KC Bal Hou vs Det GB. Fading SF based on vibes. Everyone's paid but is anyone happy?