Round Up the Usual Suspects: Jumbo AFC Playoff Preview
Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are seeking postseason redemption and validation (again) while a bunch of defense-first Neanderthals try to take them down before they reach Arrowhead Stadium.
Welcome to Too Deep Zone’s king-sized, protein-packed AFC first-round playoff preview! Get ready for tons of stats and splits you won’t find anywhere else, as well as observations, insights, a few dad jokes and perhaps a boozy rant or two.
If you are looking for the NFC preview: it will be published before 10 AM on Monday. I will link to it here when it is live.
All stats are through Week 17 unless otherwise noted, as some data just is not available for Week 18 until late Monday or early Tuesday. Games are listed in the order I felt like talking about them.
Stay tuned until the end for some thoughts about the Kansas City Chiefs …
Playoff Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Game Time: Saturday, January 11, 8:00 pm Eastern
Opening Line: Ravens -7.5
Baltimore Ravens season in a nutshell
They stomped the Bills 35-10, the Broncos 41-10 and the Texans 31-2. DVOA grades them as one of the best teams of the last 40 years. They helped Lamar Jackson produce another MVP-caliber season and punched Derrick Henry’s ticket to the Pro Football Hall of Fame once and for all.
The Ravens also tripped over the Raiders and Browns in games marred by penalties, dropped interceptions and missed field goals; they came up just short against the Chiefs, Eagles and (in their first meeting) Steelers; and their often-leaky defense nearly let them down in shootouts with the Bengals and Commanders.
The Ravens needed a Week 18 victory to clinch the AFC North, and even that came at a cost: top wide receiver Zay Flowers suffered a knee injury in a 35-10 rematch with the Browns. Reports at presstime indicated a sprain, leaving Flowers’ status for next week in doubt.
No team is better at their best than the Ravens. But no Super Bowl contender is nearly as self-destructive. And the Ravens don’t exactly have a reputation for staying out of catastrophe’s way in January.
Pittsburgh Steelers Season in a Nutshell
Weeks 1-to-6: Mike Tomlin is a genius for revitalizing Justin Fields!
Weeks 7-to-14: Mike Tomlin is a genius for switching to Russell Wilson just as opponents were figuring Fields out!
Weeks 15-to-present: Mike Tomlin should be fired for foisting another great defense/mediocre offense team upon weary Steelers fans!
Steelers Quarterback Russell Wilson
Both statistically and using the eyeball test, 2024 Comeback Russ looks a lot like 2023 Exiled-from-Denver Russ: spotty accuracy, stumbly mobility, brief flashes of his past brilliance in do-or-die situations.
While Wilson has been somewhat more efficient and consistent this year than last, much of the difference boils down to the Steelers defense and expectations. Wilson looked much better climbing off the scrap heap for a team that could win with field goals than he did as a failed franchise savior playing for a coach who wanted to push him off Pikes Peak. The optical illusion that Wilson has been revitalized has faded down the stretch.
Steelers Offense
Arthur Smith’s Rusty Pickup Truck Offense is fueled by George Pickens circus catches, yards-after-contact by Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, occasional jazzy Wilson improvisations and 50-plus yard Chris Boswell field goals.
The Steelers offense was at its sputtering worst against the Bengals in the season finale, particularly in the fourth quarter, when a muffed punt gave the Steelers a chance to take the lead, but sacks and penalties forced them to settle for a field goal when trailing by five points.
Ravens Defense
The Ravens led the NFL with 60 sacks this season …
Personal foul, roughing the passer, 92 defense: landing with any portion of his weight upon the quarterback.
Their pass defense gave up too many third-and-long heartbreakers early in the year, but it stiffened when Kyle Hamilton returned from injury and Ar’Darius Washington replaced slumping safety Marcus Williams …
Pass interference, 21 defense: bumping into a receiver on a third-and-26 pass that sailed 20 feet over their heads.
The Ravens also defense allows just 3.6 yards per rush, the lowest figure in the NFL. It’s hard to commit a defensive penalty on a running play, but the Ravens are sure to figure something out.
Ravens Quarterback Lamar Jackson
Jackson led the NFL in quarterback rating, Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, QBR, passing DVOA and (almost certainly) DYAR this season. He also led all quarterbacks in rushing yards and passed Michael Vick to become the all-time rushing leader among quarterbacks. He deserves his third MVP award, though Josh Allen may win it due to the Ravens’ frequent pratfalls and “it’s his turn” logic. Jackson is efficient and dangerous from the pocket, and few quarterbacks in history have been more brilliant on the run.
You are well aware of what Jackson must do to cement his legacy. Please don’t blame me; I’m not the Legacy Police.
Ravens Offense
Henry has been unstoppable, particularly on first downs, where he finished the season with 1,203 rushing yards yards and 6.1 yards per carry …
Illegal formation, 79 offense, lining up with his pinkie in the wrong place.
Only the Chiefs make more frequent use of two tight-end sets, as Jackson relies on Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews as both possession receivers and seam stretchers …
Holding, 73 offense: Jackson scrambled and we saw a defender’s jersey ripple slightly.
Zay Flowers is designer knockoff Tyreek Hill: a threat on both quick screens and extra-deep shots. His absence will be felt, though Rashod Bateman has finally grown into a reliable possession target. Nelson Agholor (who missed the end of the season with a concussion) rounds out a thin receiver corps …
False start, 42 offense. And maybe 12 men on the field or something.
Damn it!