Rematch Junction: Jumbo NFC North Preview
The Packers and Commanders hope to upset the teams that beat them in the season openers, while the Vikings seek a rematch with the Rams in Los Angeles.
Welcome to Too Deep Zone’s king-sized, protein-packed NFC first-round playoff preview. It’s filled with stats you won’t find anywhere else, tipsy-but-sagacious insights, dad jokes and a dash of Eagles homerism.
If you are looking for the AFC previews, click here.
All stats are through Week 17 unless otherwise noted. I apologize for repeating “through Week 17” in these capsules, but I hate the idea of providing imprecise numbers.
Games are listed in the order I felt like talking about them.
Playoff Preview: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Game Time: Sunday, January 12, 4:30 pm Eastern
Opening Line: Eagles -3.5
Philadelphia Eagles season in a nutshell
The 2024 season initially looked like a continuation of the Eagles’ late-2023 reenactment of the French Revolution, as the team started the season 2-2 due to defensive meltdowns and inscrutable Nick Sirianni decisions. But a host of newcomers – headlined by 2,000-yard rusher Saquon Barkley but also featuring coordinators Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore, linebacker Zach Baun and rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean – dragged the Eagles out of their self-destructive spiral and into the upper echelon of contenders.
The Eagles won ten straight games in one stretch and only missed out on a chance to compete for the #1 seed when Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion early in a Week 16 loss to the Commanders. Hurts is expected to return for the playoffs.
Green Bay Packers Season in a Nutshell
Week 1: Jordan Love is injured. We’re boned.
Week 4: Love is back, but he was reset to his “inexperienced turnover machine” factory setting. We’re boned.
Week 14: We’re playing well but helplessly trapped behind the Lions and Vikings in the NFC North. We’re boned.
Week 18: Jordan Love (again) and Christian Watson are injured. We’re boned.
All Season Long: At least we are not the Jets.
Packers Quarterback Jordan Love (and Malik Willis)
Love is Kirkland brand Patrick Mahomes. Love has loosey-goosey mechanics, but he’s a daring-and-efficient deep passer and a willing ball distributor in the short game who operates well from the pocket and gets away with many of his whimsical decisions on the run.
Love’s average pass attempt traveled 8.7 yards, the fourth-highest figure in the NFL; the quarterbacks ahead of him (Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, Jameis Winston) all had far fewer attempts and were either out-of-control bombardiers, playing hopelessly from behind in most games, or both. Love also benefited from 6.2 YAC per completion, fourth in the league behind Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. (Stats through Week 17.)
Love suffered an elbow injury in the season finale. The injury did not appear to be serious as of Sunday evening. But just in case: Willis won two games in relief in September and led a few productive drives in the Week 18 loss to the Bears. Willis is a burly scatter-armed scrambler heavily reliant on Matt LaFleur’s deep bag of YAC-generating tricks.
Packers Offense
The Packers playmakers did not quite live up to the Legion of Super Heroes reputation they acquired among early adopters entering the season, but they give LaFleur plenty of options.
Jayden Reed is a screens/end-arounds threat who also exploits mismatches when he ventures downfield. Watson (health status unknown at presstime) is Love’s favorite deep target, though he’s not good for much else. Romeo Doubs, who dealt with a serious concussion and a brief diva episode at different points in the year, handles slants and intermediate routes. Luke Musgrave was injured much of the year, but fellow tight end Tucker Kraft picked up much of the slack as an outlet receiver.
LaFleur uses motion effectively to disguise lots of tendencies, including the fact that his running game boils down to Josh Jacobs hammering the ball up the middle. The Packers offensive line exists in the shadow of the celebrated Lions and Eagles lines, but Elgton Jenkins, Zack Tom and the rest are sturdy pass protectors who give Love the time he needs to launch deep shots.
Eagles Defense
The Eagles acclimated to Fangio’s complex coverage concepts quickly thanks to outstanding play across the secondary. Mitchell was excellent on the offensive left side until fading late in the year. Darius Slay was revitalized by competent/less-loathsome coaching. DeJean is a pesky presence in the slot. Safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Reed Blankenship give the Eagles the toughest defense in the NFL to throw deep against.
If not for Barkley, Baun would be a Philly folk hero: the first real playmaker the team has had at linebacker since Jeremiah Trotter Senior. Baun recorded 3.5 sacks, five forced fumbles and 75 tackles short of a first down on running plays (fourth in the NFL through Week 17), and his range and open-field tackling ability made the Eagles one of the toughest defenses in the NFL to throw screen passes against.
Jalen Carter anchors the defensive line and leads the All Resurgent Georgia Bulldogs Brigade of Nolan Smith, Nakobe Dean and Jordan Davis; the latter three defenders looked like draft busts during the 2023 Matt Patricia Bread Riots. (A fifth bulldog, Kelee Ringo, has evolved into a special teams ace.)
Eagles Quarterback Quarterback Jalen Hurts
Hurts is a brilliant scrambler, has almost Peyton Manning/Marvin Harrison-level timing with top targets A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and is the best sneak artist in NFL history. But there are some things Hurts does poorly or does not do at all: throw over the middle, check down with any consistency, establish any rapport with unfamiliar receivers. Hurts is a “system” quarterback, but he has led the Eagles to a 46-20 record and a Super Bowl in variations on the current system, so whatever.
Eagles Offense
Saquon left. Saquon right. Saquon up the middle. Brown. Smitty. Smitty. Brown. Hurts scramble. Hurts draw. Brotherly Shove. Rinse. Repeat.
Tight end Dallas Goedert returned from a knee injury in Week 18 and will diversify the passing game slightly. Lane Johnson, Landon Dickerson and Jordan Mailata lead an offensive line that has carried on admirably since Jason Kelce’s retirement. (Kelce still sings with the glee club.)
Moore has added much more presnap motion to the Eagles offense, plus some under-center packages for Hurts. But there are basic things (screen/swing passes, designed rollouts) that the Eagles rarely do, and the FBI could hide an informant from the Mafia by making him the WR3.