I'll note that both Dave Tepper and Jimmy Haslam owned pieces of the Steelers before they bought their current clubs. Neither seems to have absorbed anything about the stability that Pittsburgh has had for the last half-century.
Each of the last three or four years that Football Outsiders existed, the Panthers were my pick to finish with the worst record in the league and the first overall draft pick. They never quite got there. Then the owners of FO (who had Tepper-like traits, but were more treacherous and heartless) intentionally flew the plane into the mountainside. Now the Panthers are going to be the NFL's worst team for a long time and I have no outlet to tell people how I could see this coming. Except here, I guess. So expect a steady stream of smug "I told you so" comments whenever the Panthers come up. You have been warned.
Great stuff, Mike. Especially liked the star wars reference- I can totally picture Morgan swallow dramatically as he side-eyes the ruined career of Fitterererer.
It’s definitely hard to see this club bouncing back in any real way in the near future. The Joy and excitement for the Bears as they secured the number one pick in this year’s draft for doing nothing but letting a fellow club implode somehow makes this whole situation even more sad.
Looking at the team they could have right now versus the one they do is chilling. Their dealings with Burns is a masterclass is in terrible roster management.
I would say "are", for plural agreement with "dealings". But if we're getting technical, a masterclass is typically an "expert" teaching students with high aptitude/talent. I'd probably call it a "textbook example" instead.
Admittedly, I kind of hate the concept of the masterclass. The best teachers are often people who don't view themselves as experts, because they still have more to learn. The very idea of a masterclass is pretentious...which I guess does make it appropriate to describe David Tepper. So yeah, masterclass.
Serious question - is two inches really that much? Brees was 6’0”, Kyler Murray is 5’11”, Doug Flutie was 5’10”. Wasn’t Mike Vick 6’0”? Is it that Young really isn’t 5’10”? Are all these measurements completely unreliable?
Based on everything else going on with the Panthers, if the measurements are correct, I’d think he’s impossible to evaluate playing for this shitshow of a team.
Here is a picture of Kyler Murray standing next to Bryce Young. They are clearly not in the same weight class, no matter how much water Bryce chugged before stepping on the scales at the Combine. Granted, Murray has enjoyed the benefits of a half-decade of NFL strength training. But I'm sure the Crimson Tide have a nice weight room too.
I have to say height does matter. Of this group you have one QB with a ring who was only surrounded by a superb offense and one of the greatest defenses of all time.
Vick had some moments and Kyler still has time on his side sure. I’d much rather have 6’3” + fast athlete with a strong, accurate arm.
Not convinced the short QB can attain true greatness even as s superior athlete.
Indeed. I feel like I go around and around in conversations about Young's size.
Two inches indeed make a big difference when trying to see and throw over an offensive line. Young's lack of mass, strength and ATHLETICISM further complicates the issue. As the others have mentioned, Murray is thicker, faster and appears to throw harder. Wilson was a better overall athlete and over an inch taller. Vick is in his own category.
Doug Flutie is the best comp for Young as a QB who "made it." Sort of. After bouncing around the USFL and CFL and on and off a bunch of benches. Thirty years ago.
I think that folks get stuck on the Survivor Bias with these small QBs. Only the exceptional ones make it through college and the draft cycle. In this situation, an unexceptional one got through thanks to a great college program and some of the factors I mention in the essay. Folks want to classify him with Murray or Wilson, but all the evidence so far suggests that he belongs with the 100s of QBs who never merit serious NFL consideration.
I think special mention should be given to Chuba Hubbard, who is averaging 5 yards a carry despite being literally the only working part of the offense. Also, the OL is fifth best in the league at pass protection right now. So there are a couple positives! Now they just need to fix everything else.
Doesn’t the NFL have rules to stem bad ownership? I thought they wanted all teams to be good for the good of the league. Maybe they’ll take Tepper’s toy away and David and Nicole can go ruin someone else’s things.
Other owners love guys like Tepper. Takes the focus off them and loses a bunch. They would’ve kept Snyder around forever if they could; there’s a reason Jerry Jones was his biggest ally for years (before things became untenable).
Chuba looked good in the first half against the Chargers. But it was already 20-0 or something when he got going. It's hard to evaluate the Panthers running game when they have played from far behind almost the whole year.
What Mike said but he has been getting good gash yards running through the middle from the early parts of the game. But to be balanced, he only averaged a little over three yards a carry last season. The OL is much improved
Oh man, Jadeveon Clowney mentioned. Remember him? Remember when he was the 1st pick in the 2014 draft and was considered a generational building block since he was in high school? I don't think he's been a bust but considering the hype he's almost as much of a disappointment as Young. At least we all sort of hush-hush knew that maybe BY was a product of Alabama's system...
Overstating this more than a bit, Gordon. Given what Carolina traded to move up for Bryce, he clearly was seen as 'being a QB just as valuable as Jadeveon'. Who's been as productive as, say, a typical 2nd Round pick more or less?
I agree regarding Haslam. But is the rest of the Browns management a mess? It seems like Stefanski and Berry do well when Haslam leaves them alone. Haslam is now focused on a stadium deal, so maybe he’ll stop meddling in personnel decisions.
Stefanski and Berry have done well, assuming we place Deshaun blame on Haslam (I think we should.) Depodesta appears content to draw a paycheck for nothing, which may be the best role for him. Haslam stumbled on this decision structure like a blind squirrel over a nut. Don't plan any parades until he starts noodling with ways to get rid of Deshaun.
Watched some Panthers game two video on YouTube. Young was sacked when the nickel corner blitzed and the DB made Young look small. Not sure how any professional NFL personnel manager could have met Young in person and thought this short, slight body type will work in the pro game. Young was playing on his tiptoes in the pocket.
Reports are that Houston also preferred Bryce. My understanding is that NFL GMs in general did view Bryce as 'first-among-equals' in that draft. Isn't Russell the same height?
Mike has long railed against the 'height is really really good!!' meme in evaluating QB prospects. Guess the lesson here is that extreme lack thereof better be offset by some amazing other physical qualities.
Russell Wilson is a full inch and a half taller, and Kyler Murray at least a full inch, if I'm not mistaken.
Both are also more robust and have a lot of agility from their baseball background. And yet, the other QB with a baseball background is 3 inches taller than both: Patrick Freaking Mahomes. That's the difference a few inches make in quarterbacking.
I think it's less about height and more about overall size. Bryce Young looks tiny out there...and he's taller than me. I worry about him every time he takes a hit, and I feel the same way about Jayden Daniels, who is even skinnier. He's 6'4" and about the same weight as Young). All things being close to equal, I'll take the player who's more likely to get back up from a clean hit.
Saying all that, are his issues really coming from "can't see over the o-line"? I'm not so sure. He just looks completely overwhelmed...in the same way that lots of QBs do when they go from great college teams to bad NFL teams.
SOMEONE in Houston preferred Bryce. Probably Cal McNair, husband of the individual running the team. Bryce had lots and lots of NFL supporters and probably still does. I allude to some of the reasons (besides college success, of course) in the piece.
This is some mad ass great writing. I have no idea what Dave Canales looks like but your description cracked me up, especially the McVay as leprechaun.
I nominate this article for Putzlier (Substack equivalent of a Pulitzer).
Feel like Mike is rounding into mid-season form. Good show Mike
Sounds like Matt Rhule wasn't quite the franchise-killing disaster some made him out to be. At the least we should be able to agree he wasn't the main issue.
Oh, he was a loony. Tepper brought in Fitterer to stop Rhule from making weird personnel decisions. Rhule then started playing mind games with his coaching staff.
I'm a Nebraska fan too, and he seems to be doing okay so far!
I understand that college coaches can get away with more weird stuff than in the pros (see Meyer, Urban). But when a place is a dumpster fire before you get there and a dumpster fire after you leave, it's more difficult to argue you were the reason.
One of Mike's Almanac colleagues made a spirited defence of Rhule (last year's edition I think?), arguing he'd improved the roster at most positions - except QB, obvs. But yeah, sometimes the eye test is just as important as the stats.
Clowney was an exceptional athlete who already had injury issues early in his college career. Those injuries continued into his early NFL career.
He had several outstanding seasons for the late-2010s Texans. He was never really a pure "edge" and shared the spotlight with JJ Watt, so his sack totals don't measure his impact.
When Bill O'Brien seized personnel control and wanted to flex his muscles, he traded Clowney for some role players. O'Brien kept doing things like that until he lost his mind and started screaming at Watt during practices.
Clowney has since mixed quietly great years with just-a-guy years and injury years. He is best thought of us a force multiplier for an already-strong defense. He can still create mismatches along the line. But if he's your best lineman, you have a guy whose motor isn't always in 4th gear, needs breathers, won't get many wins against top offensive tackles, might start thinking about his golf clubs in the locker room, etc.
He is a mild bust as a first overall pick. If he was the 9th overall pick, no one would bat an eyelash at his career as being anything but acceptable.
He had one good year in Cleveland as the guy on the other end of the D line from Myles Garrett, which got him a fair amount of one-on-one action. The second year he got unhappy that they designed schemes for Garrett and not him and he faded out.
When I saw "Tepper hanging out with the Big Short guy", for a minute I was excited that Michael Lewis had access and was writing a book about Tepper. Oh well.
Given his recent track record, said book would focus on how Tepper is a misunderstood football genius, and would somehow manage to throw Michael Oher under the bus a few more times.
I'll note that both Dave Tepper and Jimmy Haslam owned pieces of the Steelers before they bought their current clubs. Neither seems to have absorbed anything about the stability that Pittsburgh has had for the last half-century.
"These guys are chumps. I can make way more money than this."
Each of the last three or four years that Football Outsiders existed, the Panthers were my pick to finish with the worst record in the league and the first overall draft pick. They never quite got there. Then the owners of FO (who had Tepper-like traits, but were more treacherous and heartless) intentionally flew the plane into the mountainside. Now the Panthers are going to be the NFL's worst team for a long time and I have no outlet to tell people how I could see this coming. Except here, I guess. So expect a steady stream of smug "I told you so" comments whenever the Panthers come up. You have been warned.
Cam and Graham were more treacherous but less competent than Tepper.
Great stuff, Mike. Especially liked the star wars reference- I can totally picture Morgan swallow dramatically as he side-eyes the ruined career of Fitterererer.
It’s definitely hard to see this club bouncing back in any real way in the near future. The Joy and excitement for the Bears as they secured the number one pick in this year’s draft for doing nothing but letting a fellow club implode somehow makes this whole situation even more sad.
Looking at the team they could have right now versus the one they do is chilling. Their dealings with Burns is a masterclass is in terrible roster management.
Are a masterclass? I don't know. Grammar is stupid.
I would say "are", for plural agreement with "dealings". But if we're getting technical, a masterclass is typically an "expert" teaching students with high aptitude/talent. I'd probably call it a "textbook example" instead.
Admittedly, I kind of hate the concept of the masterclass. The best teachers are often people who don't view themselves as experts, because they still have more to learn. The very idea of a masterclass is pretentious...which I guess does make it appropriate to describe David Tepper. So yeah, masterclass.
And yes, English grammar is stupid.
I agree that the Burns situation be a masterclass in terrible roster management.
Serious question - is two inches really that much? Brees was 6’0”, Kyler Murray is 5’11”, Doug Flutie was 5’10”. Wasn’t Mike Vick 6’0”? Is it that Young really isn’t 5’10”? Are all these measurements completely unreliable?
Based on everything else going on with the Panthers, if the measurements are correct, I’d think he’s impossible to evaluate playing for this shitshow of a team.
Here is a picture of Kyler Murray standing next to Bryce Young. They are clearly not in the same weight class, no matter how much water Bryce chugged before stepping on the scales at the Combine. Granted, Murray has enjoyed the benefits of a half-decade of NFL strength training. But I'm sure the Crimson Tide have a nice weight room too.
https://x.com/SharpFootball/status/1632023316163690497
I can't take Hook~! in AEW seriously for exactly this reason. Guy looks like he's just wandered in off the street.
Thanks Vincent, looks like his frame and muscle mass is really more of the issue than his height then.
I have to say height does matter. Of this group you have one QB with a ring who was only surrounded by a superb offense and one of the greatest defenses of all time.
Vick had some moments and Kyler still has time on his side sure. I’d much rather have 6’3” + fast athlete with a strong, accurate arm.
Not convinced the short QB can attain true greatness even as s superior athlete.
I don’t know about that. Wilson definitely achieved greatness, though he didn’t stay great for as long as some others.
Murray and Wilson are/were vastly superior athletes w/ much better arms
Got it - so it’s less a height issue and more of a build/strength issue.
Mike Vick was an insane athlete and quite a bit more muscular than Bryce Young too
Makes sense.
Indeed. I feel like I go around and around in conversations about Young's size.
Two inches indeed make a big difference when trying to see and throw over an offensive line. Young's lack of mass, strength and ATHLETICISM further complicates the issue. As the others have mentioned, Murray is thicker, faster and appears to throw harder. Wilson was a better overall athlete and over an inch taller. Vick is in his own category.
Doug Flutie is the best comp for Young as a QB who "made it." Sort of. After bouncing around the USFL and CFL and on and off a bunch of benches. Thirty years ago.
I think that folks get stuck on the Survivor Bias with these small QBs. Only the exceptional ones make it through college and the draft cycle. In this situation, an unexceptional one got through thanks to a great college program and some of the factors I mention in the essay. Folks want to classify him with Murray or Wilson, but all the evidence so far suggests that he belongs with the 100s of QBs who never merit serious NFL consideration.
Agree that Flutie can't really be called a success, as much as I loved watching the guy play.
All makes sense to me, Mike! I didn’t know about Young’s other physical differences.
I think special mention should be given to Chuba Hubbard, who is averaging 5 yards a carry despite being literally the only working part of the offense. Also, the OL is fifth best in the league at pass protection right now. So there are a couple positives! Now they just need to fix everything else.
Doesn’t the NFL have rules to stem bad ownership? I thought they wanted all teams to be good for the good of the league. Maybe they’ll take Tepper’s toy away and David and Nicole can go ruin someone else’s things.
Other owners love guys like Tepper. Takes the focus off them and loses a bunch. They would’ve kept Snyder around forever if they could; there’s a reason Jerry Jones was his biggest ally for years (before things became untenable).
How much of Chuba's high yards a carry is a result of garbage time carries, Josh? Or 3rd down give up draws? Don't know myself, just speculating.
Chuba looked good in the first half against the Chargers. But it was already 20-0 or something when he got going. It's hard to evaluate the Panthers running game when they have played from far behind almost the whole year.
What Mike said but he has been getting good gash yards running through the middle from the early parts of the game. But to be balanced, he only averaged a little over three yards a carry last season. The OL is much improved
Oh man, Jadeveon Clowney mentioned. Remember him? Remember when he was the 1st pick in the 2014 draft and was considered a generational building block since he was in high school? I don't think he's been a bust but considering the hype he's almost as much of a disappointment as Young. At least we all sort of hush-hush knew that maybe BY was a product of Alabama's system...
This is the 11th year of his career. It's remarkable to have such a long career.
11 years seems like a good return for the 1st overall pick
Overstating this more than a bit, Gordon. Given what Carolina traded to move up for Bryce, he clearly was seen as 'being a QB just as valuable as Jadeveon'. Who's been as productive as, say, a typical 2nd Round pick more or less?
Bryce is squarely in Jamarcus Russell territory.
It would take two of Bryce to build a Jamarcus.
I agree regarding Haslam. But is the rest of the Browns management a mess? It seems like Stefanski and Berry do well when Haslam leaves them alone. Haslam is now focused on a stadium deal, so maybe he’ll stop meddling in personnel decisions.
Stefanski and Berry have done well, assuming we place Deshaun blame on Haslam (I think we should.) Depodesta appears content to draw a paycheck for nothing, which may be the best role for him. Haslam stumbled on this decision structure like a blind squirrel over a nut. Don't plan any parades until he starts noodling with ways to get rid of Deshaun.
That sounds right to me. I’ve never understood what Depodesta’s role was. But Berry and Stefanski seem solid.
Watched some Panthers game two video on YouTube. Young was sacked when the nickel corner blitzed and the DB made Young look small. Not sure how any professional NFL personnel manager could have met Young in person and thought this short, slight body type will work in the pro game. Young was playing on his tiptoes in the pocket.
Reports are that Houston also preferred Bryce. My understanding is that NFL GMs in general did view Bryce as 'first-among-equals' in that draft. Isn't Russell the same height?
Mike has long railed against the 'height is really really good!!' meme in evaluating QB prospects. Guess the lesson here is that extreme lack thereof better be offset by some amazing other physical qualities.
Russell Wilson is a full inch and a half taller, and Kyler Murray at least a full inch, if I'm not mistaken.
Both are also more robust and have a lot of agility from their baseball background. And yet, the other QB with a baseball background is 3 inches taller than both: Patrick Freaking Mahomes. That's the difference a few inches make in quarterbacking.
I think it's less about height and more about overall size. Bryce Young looks tiny out there...and he's taller than me. I worry about him every time he takes a hit, and I feel the same way about Jayden Daniels, who is even skinnier. He's 6'4" and about the same weight as Young). All things being close to equal, I'll take the player who's more likely to get back up from a clean hit.
Saying all that, are his issues really coming from "can't see over the o-line"? I'm not so sure. He just looks completely overwhelmed...in the same way that lots of QBs do when they go from great college teams to bad NFL teams.
SOMEONE in Houston preferred Bryce. Probably Cal McNair, husband of the individual running the team. Bryce had lots and lots of NFL supporters and probably still does. I allude to some of the reasons (besides college success, of course) in the piece.
Aside from agility, Russ looked like he could run through a brick wall.
This is some mad ass great writing. I have no idea what Dave Canales looks like but your description cracked me up, especially the McVay as leprechaun.
I nominate this article for Putzlier (Substack equivalent of a Pulitzer).
Feel like Mike is rounding into mid-season form. Good show Mike
Sounds like Matt Rhule wasn't quite the franchise-killing disaster some made him out to be. At the least we should be able to agree he wasn't the main issue.
Oh, he was a loony. Tepper brought in Fitterer to stop Rhule from making weird personnel decisions. Rhule then started playing mind games with his coaching staff.
I'm a Nebraska fan too, and he seems to be doing okay so far!
I understand that college coaches can get away with more weird stuff than in the pros (see Meyer, Urban). But when a place is a dumpster fire before you get there and a dumpster fire after you leave, it's more difficult to argue you were the reason.
I’m a hater. Where can I read a breakdown of the Rhule era?
It takes a village!
One of Mike's Almanac colleagues made a spirited defence of Rhule (last year's edition I think?), arguing he'd improved the roster at most positions - except QB, obvs. But yeah, sometimes the eye test is just as important as the stats.
Simile notwithstanding, any chance you could explain Clowney’s career for us, Mike?
Clowney was an exceptional athlete who already had injury issues early in his college career. Those injuries continued into his early NFL career.
He had several outstanding seasons for the late-2010s Texans. He was never really a pure "edge" and shared the spotlight with JJ Watt, so his sack totals don't measure his impact.
When Bill O'Brien seized personnel control and wanted to flex his muscles, he traded Clowney for some role players. O'Brien kept doing things like that until he lost his mind and started screaming at Watt during practices.
Clowney has since mixed quietly great years with just-a-guy years and injury years. He is best thought of us a force multiplier for an already-strong defense. He can still create mismatches along the line. But if he's your best lineman, you have a guy whose motor isn't always in 4th gear, needs breathers, won't get many wins against top offensive tackles, might start thinking about his golf clubs in the locker room, etc.
He is a mild bust as a first overall pick. If he was the 9th overall pick, no one would bat an eyelash at his career as being anything but acceptable.
He had one good year in Cleveland as the guy on the other end of the D line from Myles Garrett, which got him a fair amount of one-on-one action. The second year he got unhappy that they designed schemes for Garrett and not him and he faded out.
That Tepper paragraph positively 𝘴𝘤𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴.... damn, Mike. I have missed reading your stuff since my NFL fandom lapsed.
“Lacertine”—had to look that one up. A perfect description of Snyder.
I originally had "serpentine" but it sounded too sexy. Glad you liked it!
When I saw "Tepper hanging out with the Big Short guy", for a minute I was excited that Michael Lewis had access and was writing a book about Tepper. Oh well.
Given his recent track record, said book would focus on how Tepper is a misunderstood football genius, and would somehow manage to throw Michael Oher under the bus a few more times.