TankWatch: Las Vegas Raiders

Antonio Pierce has failed to fill the franchise's leadership void. Who will be next? Tom Brady? Deion Sanders? Or will Mark Davis finally graduate from Fredo Corleone to Godfather?

Antonio Pierce said the quiet part out loud, then did precisely the silly thing that he said he would do.

In the days after the 27-20 Week 8 Las Vegas Raiders loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, a reporter asked Pierce a softball question about “pointing fingers” at offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s playcalling. The novice Raiders head coach took a huge windmill swing at it and whiffed. 

“It’ll have to get better,” Pierce said. “There have been a lot of opportunities for us to score points and make opportunities. And yeah, that’s on the play caller.”

Pierce then listed various other areas in need of improvement (turnovers, execution, etc.) before giving Getsy one last shove into oncoming traffic. “Yeah, it does start with the coordinator. He’s gotta be the one that takes the fall for that and takes most of the blame.”

Takes the fall? Hey coach, perhaps you should use some less self-revelatory phrasing, like “He’s my designated scapegoat,” or “I AM INSECURE ABOUT MY POWER AND SHALL SOON COMMENCE TO FIRE SUBORDINATES.”

Sure enough, Getsy and several offensive staff members “took the fall” after the Bengals loss for failing to design a functional offense out of the rummage-sale clutter they were left with. 

The impetuous, inexperienced Pierce is speed-running through his first full season as a head coach like a man who already knows that he will not get a second. As a result, the 2-7 Raiders find themselves in familiar territory entering the second half of the season: rudderless and irrelevant, with a gutted coaching staff and a coaching/ownership sideshow that’s more interesting than anything that is happening on the field (despite not being all that interesting itself.)

The Raiders Story So Far

To outsiders, the 2024 Raiders looked like a cash-strapped rebuilding team that hoped its defensive front would keep it competitive until some outstanding financial obligations ran their course.

What the Raiders thought of themselves entering the season is a mystery, probably to the Raiders’ brain trust itself. Owner Mark Davis spent the last six seasons bouncing from guru to guru like a 1970s lounge singer in a cocaine-fueled search for enlightenment. Introspection isn’t Davis’ bag, and the Raiders left honest self-scouting behind back in 2018, when Jon Gruden blew Davis’ free-agent budget on 30-somethings who looked good on Monday Night Football.

It’s likely that Davis and Pierce bought into the Raiders’ 3-1 late-season dead-cat bounce in 2023 and thought they were a Christian Wilkins or two away from the playoffs. A fluky Week 2 win over the Ravens may have fed that delusion. Then a Week 3 loss to the Andy Dalton-led Panthers shattered it. Davante Adams went on the Emotionally Disinterested in Performing list and was shipped (in both senses of the word) to Aaron Rodgers’ Jets. Pierce began juggling Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew like a cracked bowling ball and a rusty chainsaw. 

Then came the 41-24 Week 9 loss to the Bengals. Pierce benched Gardner Minshew for recently-signed Desmond Ridder, who was forced to play behind an offensive line missing multiple veteran starters. Pierce fired Getsy, offensive line coach James Cregg and quarterbacks coach Rich Scangarello hours after the game in what looked much more like a tantrum than clear-headed managerial restructuring.

Leadership Structure

Davis is Fredo Corleone, but with the fashion sense of a Russian mobster from a CBS crime procedural. In an NFL dominated by alpha males, Davis is an epsilon who wears his failson status on the sleeve of his romper pajamas Humpty Dumpty costume off-white tracksuit. 

Everything about Davis’ public demeanor suggests that he spends his days in a penthouse rage-crying at the portrait of his father above the mantle of a fake fireplace before finally hurling a scotch bottle at it so feebly that the bottle does not even break. 

General manager Tom Telesco’s go-to personnel tactic during his 11 seasons with the Chargers was extending the contracts of established veterans. Unfortunately, the Raiders’ few useful veterans are already lavishly compensated, and Davis is broke after spending his water-and-sewer-bill money on Christian Wilkins. Telesco handles the draft competently and rarely makes overtly foolish moves, making him the Only Adult in the Room: always a dangerous designation on the Raiders org chart.

Here are Antonio Pierce’s head coaching qualifications, in order of relevance:

• Maxx Crosby likes him.

• He works incredibly cheap.

• He is no less of a braying asshole than Josh McDaniels and Jon Gruden, but at least he’s a different sort of braying asshole.

Pierce, a solid NFL linebacker in the 2000s, became Arizona State’s recruiting coordinator and linebackers coach in 2017. Herm Edwards promoted Pierce to Associate Head Coach/Co-Defensive Coordinator in 2020. Pierce held onto his recruiting duties, where he was “the ringleader in orchestrating the recruiting violations," according to an NCAA investigation. 

“Most of the violations were related to what the NCAA referred to as a ‘scheme’ orchestrated by Pierce to circumvent restrictions in place during the COVID-19 pandemic,” wrote ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura. “Pierce facilitated impermissible recruiting contact with 35 prospects, including ‘tryouts, football facility tours and entertainment.’ It was also determined he directed an assistant to engage in tampering with a player enrolled at another school and traveled out of state to observe and meet with prospects during a recruiting dead period.”

The NCAA slapped Pierce with an eight-year “show cause” order (exile, basically) in October. McDaniels either didn’t know or didn’t care about Pierce’s role as a pandemic party planner when he added Pierce to his defensive staff in 2022. 

Pierce spent one-and-a-half seasons as a linebackers coach before earning an interim promotion to head coach when McDaniels was fired. The Raiders went 5-4 against teams quarterbacked by Tommy DeVito, Zach Wilson, Easton Stick, Jarrett Stidham and … um, Patrick Mahomes (thanks to two defensive touchdowns). Crosby publicly pounded the table for Pierce, Davis was cowed by both Crosby and his accountants, and most of us in the media responded with a “why the hell not?” shrug.

Pierce started his tenure by stating on Crosby’s podcast (lest anyone question who wears the pants in Vegas) that the Raiders planned to use 1990s Detroit Pistons-style “Jordan Rules” on Mahomes: hits that straddle the borderlines of the rules, essentially. Nothing projects head-coaching readiness in 2024 like publicly suggesting you plan to deliver cheap shots to the NFL’s biggest star. Pierce began dickering with his mediocre quarterbacks in minicamp and is still doing so. He’s as far out of his depth as a Panera Bread night manager would be as a hostage negotiator.

The Raiders offense is now run by the father-and-son team of Scott and Norv Turner; the elder Turner coached the Raiders to a 9-23 record in 2004-05 and had been out of the NFL since 2020 before being summoned to fill a manpower shortage last week. Patrick Graham, Pierce’s boss until last November, still runs the defense and no-doubt realizes that he is the third wheel in the Crosby-Pierce bromance. 

Tom Brady invested in the Raiders as a minority owner the way other middle-aged divorcees might splurge on a speedboat: mindless of the consequences and tacitly embarrassed by the implications.

Quarterback Situation

Gardner Minshew plays quarterback the way a soccer mom who just drank her first 20mg cannabis-infusion cranberry lime seltzer an hour earlier shops at Costco.

Aidan O’Connell is the Davis Mills of Mike Glennons. 

Desmond Ridder, grabbed off waivers in October, may be the best quarterback on the Raiders roster. He looked competent at times in Arthur Smith’s Acme Rocket Skates Falcons offense in 2023 but flunked a preseason tryout to be Kyler Murray’s backup. 

The only one of these quarterbacks who should remain on the Raiders 2024 roster is O’Connell, and that’s only because he is on a cheap rookie contract.

What’s Going Right

A brief list:

• Rookie tight end Brock Bowers has caught 57 passes for 580 yards and two touchdowns. He has also been a sturdy run blocker. The Raiders offense, such as it is, often flows through Bowers.

• The Raiders run defense ranks 11th in Adjusted Line Yards, thanks in large part to Wilkins, who has been as good as advertised.  

• The Raiders pass defense ranks fifth at stopping opponents’ top receivers and second at stopping their #2 receivers, per DVOA analysis. The Raiders have some solid young contributors in the secondary, but: a) the Crosby-Wilkins pass rush makes everyone look better; b) the Raiders have faced few top receiver tandems; and c) we will find a large hole in the Raiders pass defense in What’s Gone Wrong.

What’s Gone Wrong

Let’s not belabor the quarterback situation. Here are some other issues:

• The Raiders defense has not forced a fumble all season. This, of course, is Luke Getsy’s fault!

• Opponents have outscored the Raiders 132-51 in second and third quarters. The Raiders offense has played adequately when executing its early game scripts but then fallen apart until late-game garbage time. (Or, against the Ravens, just in time to benefit from an opponent’s mistake spree.) The early-game success suggests that Getsy knew what he was doing but just quickly ran out of O’Connell smoke or Minshew mirrors each week. 

• Left tackle Kolton Miller has been in and out of the lineup with injuries. His replacements have been bad. Center Andre James, a capable starter, suffered an ankle injury in week 8. Rookie Jackson Powers-Johnson slid over from guard to replace him, which just opened a hole at guard. Right tackle/wide receiver (don’t ask) Thayer Munford has battled both injuries and severe ineffectiveness this season. Rookie D.J. Glaze, future owner of a hip-hop donut shop, has been forced into the lineup at right tackle.

• The Raiders pass defense ranks 30th in both stopping opposing tight ends and opposing running backs. Opponents with no fear of their offense have been content to not take many risks.

• Like the Cowboys, the Raiders became Running Backs Don’t Matter extremists in the offseason and are suffering for it. Alexander Mattison is averaging 3.3 yards per rush and Zamir White 2.9 yards per rush on a team that wanted a ground-and-pound attack. 

Building Blocks

The 2024 draft class has been impressive. Bowers is a keeper. Powers-Johnson has held his own at two positions on the interior offensive line, and Glaze is acclimating well at right tackle.

The 2023 draft class has been less impressive. Edge rusher Tyree Wilson spent his rookie training camp rehabbing a foot injury and was slowed by a knee injury early this season. Tre Tucker is a tiny/speedy gadget guy miscast as a WR2 on a team that has no one better. There were two Byron Young’s in last year’s draft and the Raiders picked the wrong one; their Young (the former Alabama defensive tackle, not the Arkansas edge rusher now with the Rams) was unceremoniously waived in August. Michael Mayer has missed much of this season with personal issues and is little more than a poor man’s Bowers when available.

There’s some young-ish B-tier talent on defense: Divine Deablo, Nate Hobbs, Jack Jones, Tre’von Moehrig, Robert Spillane. All but Jones are free agents at the end of this year …

Future Assets 

… but the Raiders have $106 million in cap space for 2025, which means Telesco has the funds to extend some contracts. The Raiders will still be eating big chunks of the Adams and Jimmy Garoppolo contracts; otherwise, they would have closer to $145 million to spend. 

Davis’ cash poverty has become so under-discussed that it’s over-discussed. Davis has no outside fortune to draw from, so he can only dole out so many giant guaranteed signing bonuses at a time. He also still owes McDaniels the back end of what was a reported $40-million guaranteed salary and probably just finished paying off the 2021 Gruden settlement. Still, the Raiders have the money to extend someone like Robert Spillane if they choose to.

The Raiders will have all of their picks in 2025, plus the Jets’ third-rounder, which could become a second-rounder if Adams and the Jets stop putzing around, but they won’t.

Rebuilding Plan

Compared to the Browns or Panthers, the Raiders plan is rather straightforward.

Fire Pierce. He has spent 10 months proving that he was not qualified for the job.

Draft a Quarterback. The Raiders have not drafted a quarterback in the first round since JaMarcus Russell in 2007. It’s time to try again, this time with an actual background check to make sure they don’t select another CVS Pharmacy Platinum Robitussin Rewards Club member. 

Speaking of background checks, the Raiders have a habit of signing/hiring/promoting people who show up with heavy baggage: Garoppolo (in need of surgery when they signed him), Pierce (NCAA investigation), Wilson (we all knew he was rehabbing an injury before the draft, but did the Raiders?) and so forth. This issue goes back to the troubled individuals Gruden and Mike Mayock drafted, and frankly to Gruden. Al Davis sent private investigators to dig up dirt on Marcus Allen. His son may have veered too far in the other direction in his unwillingness to conduct a Google search.

No, not Coach Prime and Shedeur. Gonna nip Davis in the bud on this one. DON’T TURN THE RAIDERS INTO A SANDERS FAMILY VEGAS RESIDENCY.

The Raiders need to grab a standard-issue veteran coordinator off the rack and try being normal for a change. Shedeur Sanders is a worthy prospect who would sell a lot of jerseys (always a concern for a team still gaining its footing in a new city), but Davis would not stand a chance against Prime’s Chinook parenting. 

No, not Brady either. Brady will make a fine investor and confidante. If you think he’d make a fine coach/GM, listen to one of his telecasts and remind yourself that he spent a year practicing for it. 

Extend Some Contracts. Start with Hobbs, a capable slot cornerback. Then Spillane, a hustling linebacker who won’t cost much. Moehrig is a big hitter who can look like an All Pro when the defense around him is clicking. Jones is worth an early extension if he is with the program, assuming there is still a program to be with. Telesco loves a good (perhaps too good) contract extension, and he should prioritize a few of the Raiders young veterans before they reach the free agent market.

Lay Low in Free Agency. The Raiders always end up regretting splashy acquisitions. Crosby, Wilkins and Miller are all the expensive veteran talent the team needs right now.

Running Backs Matter. The Raiders should draft one on Day Two. And another one early on Day Three. Seriously, I never want to see Alexander Mattison get meaningful NFL carries again.

There’s enough talent on defense and along the offensive line that the Raiders should consider spending most of their draft capital on playmakers for their first-round quarterback. 

Don’t Let Maxx Crosby Become Aaron Rodgers. As I wrote in the 2024 Aaron Schatz FTN Almanac:

Crosby threatened to leave the Raiders if Pierce was not hired. Then he endorsed the hire. Crosby’s podcast has become the Raiders’ Pravda: Crosby hosts his coach on the show, not the other way around. It’s not hard to see a power imbalance growing. Davis prefers to defer to alpha males like Gruden and McDaniels; he may now be letting the one player he can literally not afford to lose call too many of the shots.

Davis can’t afford to let Crosby prop up the already-crumbling Pierce regime, become too involved in choosing the next coach or control the team’s messaging the way he has for the last year or so. Curtailing Crosby may mean hiring an offense-oriented coach, giving Telesco a more front-facing role, calling Crosby’s bluff if he threatens more trade demands, and/or Davis just growing a pair. The 2024 Raiders are a fine example of what happens when an organization cedes control to the tough talkers in the locker room. (See the 2016-20 Broncos for another example.)

Bottom Line

Lest you think I make too much of Crosby’s influence, consider what Davante Adams said a few days after Getsy’s firing. “I love Luke and I have a long history with him,” Adams said. “We came into Green Bay at the same time, and he was my receivers coach for a few years and one of my favorite coaches that I’ve had. It just so happens that… obviously, me leaving doesn’t help that situation.”

This is how the Raiders now operate, folks: the superstar players get to pick their pet coaches. When a player leaves, the coach becomes expendable. It’s Pop Warner-level leadership. If the Prime & Shedeur Circus came to Vegas, Davis would find himself locked in a broom closet in minutes. Heck, he’d probably volunteer for the ball gag.

The Raiders could turn things around quickly if they just do normal stuff this offseason: hire Hot Candidate X, draft Quarterback Y, convince Crosby to settle for Defensive Player of the Year instead of Executive of the Year. They could be next year’s Broncos, if not next year’s Commanders.

The Raiders simply need to fill their leadership vacuum with someone who has a clue and is not a raving egomaniac. Such individuals are hard to come by in the NFL. And Davis has a hard time finding them, because while he may not be as much of the latter as many owners, he lacks any semblance of the former.