Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and others made a difference for playoff teams this year. But it wasn't that big a difference. And it won't make much of a difference for other RBs.
I think that running back is the best representation of football. Who do you see on the field? A quarterback, anxiously looking around and yelling things, and then #26 with the ball trucking people. That's what Al Michaels, who has been calling games for decades, sees. He's right. To most Americans, that is the heart of the game.
This is what I was thinking. The image of one runner charging up behind a phalanx of blockers is just inherent to the game of American football. Most team sports have passing of some sort, but American football is one of the few that allows blocking, which encourages the tactic of getting your best athlete the ball and clearing space for him to do his thing. (Side note: This is why a well-timed, well-executed screen pass is one of my favorite plays in the game. Teammates working in concert to get downfield and pave a path for a speedy but patient ballcarrier, who runs behind them without overtaking them? Yeah, baby, that's what football IS.)
“ To add a banal observation: running backs are more useful as value boosters for well-built contenders than they can ever be as brute-force laborers for bad teams. McCaffrey very neatly demonstrated this point when the 49ers acquired him from the Panthers in 2022. Barkley is illustrating it again this year.”
This is my exact stance on RBs. They don’t matter, until they do. The Giants were wrong with that roster to draft Barkley No. 2, and the Eagles were absolutely right to pay him $37 million. They should be the piece that puts you over the top, because they can be legit difference-makers. But, their careers can be destroyed on bad teams and behind bad lines.
I can't remember where I originally saw this, but the best theory I've seen to explain the constant push-pull of the RB's matter vs No They Don't convo is the fact that RB value is inversely proportional to the level of competition. It's the most important position on most HS teams, can carry the offense on a bunch of college teams every year (though colored by my Badgers red glasses here), and relatively replaceable in the NFL. It's a completely different game at the NFL level where it's full of 99th percentile guys, while a decent running back can run wild in most other environments.
You could argue that starting pitching in baseball is more or less moving in this direction as well.
It's really astounding these guys do it. If you're an NFL player you've had to do a lot of things that require sacrifice, attention to detail, intelligence....so why, when you're at the highest leverage moment an NFL play can have...you suddenly lack smarts and attention to detail?
Regarding ball drops, I, for one, would love to see the coach as punishment of the offender have him run a lap around the field immediately afterward. Let the fans and players shame the idiot to no end.
Nick Chubb and Jonathan taylor rank as the 60th-64th running backs on PFF in 2024. Its so sad watching them. Before anyone shits on PFF these two were top 5 every other season on their system.
But this fuels the "running backs don't matter" they're not worth any free agent dollars at all. Their performance is next to undrafted rookies right now. It's upsetting they got used up during their cheap rookie deal and stand as reasons to simply draft midround backs every 2 years and let them leave every every time they finish 4th year.
1. The position is more dependent on the other 10 players around them than a QB, WR or TE.
2. Repeating performance is almost impossible. Partly bc of point #1 and partly bc of health challenges.
Teams with a Micah Parsons that needs an extension can reasonable assume he'll come close to replicating his performance the next 3-4 years; same with a receiver or LT, QB, edge rusher, CB. Just doesn't make sense to assume a RB will continue to produce bc history tells us that likely won't.
I feel like Chubb's glorious 4 years 2019-2022 we got to enjoy were borrowed time. He was considered a lesser prospect then Bulldog backfield mate Sony Michel. Partly because he was so injured in college. It was a risk taking him 2nd round that paid off big...Browns reaign only 12 million a year for 2021,2022 and a garbage 2023.
The "unfairness" of RB careers versus QB/OL/etc careers is exponentially magnified by the current rookie contract rules. There's nothing anyone can do, I think, about giving RBs the likelihood of playing as long as a lineman, but the league and the player's association could, if they wanted, eliminate the way that the rookie contract system penalizes players in positions with shorter career expectations.
Ultimately, parents of players with NFL-level talent need to keep their kids from becoming RBs. That goes against the star-power reputation of RBs at the highest school and college level, but is likely to be better for the kid in the long run.
They probably will. Which means they will offer something Chuba like. If he doesn't like it, they will just take their chances. Notice how well Ray Davis and the Johnson fellow are playing.
Yeah agree with Mike. While Cook is good, he is far from ideal. He can break a big play and this year is doing a bit better after contact. But he still dances and hesitates behind the LOS too much for my tastes. He is also not a reliable pass catcher (hence Johnson and Davis seeing a lot of snaps on passing downs). Cook can generate splash plays on short and intermediate passes, and is deadly on a wheel route. Somebody somewhere said he positions his hands incorrectly on long passes, or maybe it's just repeated mental lapses. He'll get an offer but I'm assuming it won't be too close to top of the market.
A solid running game, regardless of back, is a joy to watch. When a team elects to receive the opening kick and then goes 70 yards with 8 carries mixed in, or when a team grinds out three first downs in the last six minutes to ice a game, that's fun to watch.
Matt LaFleur's game plans for the two games Love missed. Boys, hitch up your pants, we're gonna push them down the field. The motion, the blocking patterns. Ain't no questionable "illegal contact!" calls for first downs when you're grounding and pounding.
The supposed ‘analytics’ of the running backs don’t matter brigade was always infuriating
Their basic argument was ‘look, this 6th rounder ran for a thousand yards, and because I’m a data obsessed numbers guy on the frontier of knowledge I can tell you this proves Running Backs don’t matter and using a first rounder on one is for Neanderthals ’
Totally ignoring the fact that at the same time that was happening a bunch of 6th rounders were holding their own or even excelling at non-stat positions like Tackle, Guard, Linebacker and Corner. So what in effect was happening was a bunch of self declared data nerds were dazzled by counting stats and eye test ‘analysis’ because they lacked the wit to do detailed data analysis on performance by position based on draft round
Great article, as usual, Mike. I really like the way FO clarified that when they say running back they mean that running back, with that offensive line, in that scheme. Having a good running back is important, but he's only the most obvious piece of the puzzle.
"Jerry Jones might be fooled by Dowdle’s late-season surge, but for the rest of us, Dowdle is a reminder of the converse of the Running Back Rebirth: a great one can help a great team, but the lack of even a decent one can kneecap a bad one."
In the last six weeks Rico Dowdle is 2nd in the NFL in rushing, with 634 yards on 118 attempts (5.4 YPA). Prior to that Dowdle was sharing time and averaging less than 10 attempts per game.
This behind an OL that has had a rotating cast of no-names and unproven guys and a QB running a high school offense.
Since being given a larger role it's clear he's, at minimum, a "decent" NFL running back.
I think that running back is the best representation of football. Who do you see on the field? A quarterback, anxiously looking around and yelling things, and then #26 with the ball trucking people. That's what Al Michaels, who has been calling games for decades, sees. He's right. To most Americans, that is the heart of the game.
This is what I was thinking. The image of one runner charging up behind a phalanx of blockers is just inherent to the game of American football. Most team sports have passing of some sort, but American football is one of the few that allows blocking, which encourages the tactic of getting your best athlete the ball and clearing space for him to do his thing. (Side note: This is why a well-timed, well-executed screen pass is one of my favorite plays in the game. Teammates working in concert to get downfield and pave a path for a speedy but patient ballcarrier, who runs behind them without overtaking them? Yeah, baby, that's what football IS.)
Yes, I got totally mixed up on the Pollard play! So sorry! I am experiencing bandwidth issues when it comes to Titans football.
“ To add a banal observation: running backs are more useful as value boosters for well-built contenders than they can ever be as brute-force laborers for bad teams. McCaffrey very neatly demonstrated this point when the 49ers acquired him from the Panthers in 2022. Barkley is illustrating it again this year.”
This is my exact stance on RBs. They don’t matter, until they do. The Giants were wrong with that roster to draft Barkley No. 2, and the Eagles were absolutely right to pay him $37 million. They should be the piece that puts you over the top, because they can be legit difference-makers. But, their careers can be destroyed on bad teams and behind bad lines.
Exactly right.
I can't remember where I originally saw this, but the best theory I've seen to explain the constant push-pull of the RB's matter vs No They Don't convo is the fact that RB value is inversely proportional to the level of competition. It's the most important position on most HS teams, can carry the offense on a bunch of college teams every year (though colored by my Badgers red glasses here), and relatively replaceable in the NFL. It's a completely different game at the NFL level where it's full of 99th percentile guys, while a decent running back can run wild in most other environments.
You could argue that starting pitching in baseball is more or less moving in this direction as well.
You can take two steps into the endzone and drop the ball casually and still look cool, without the risk of looking like a complete idiot.
It's really astounding these guys do it. If you're an NFL player you've had to do a lot of things that require sacrifice, attention to detail, intelligence....so why, when you're at the highest leverage moment an NFL play can have...you suddenly lack smarts and attention to detail?
Regarding ball drops, I, for one, would love to see the coach as punishment of the offender have him run a lap around the field immediately afterward. Let the fans and players shame the idiot to no end.
Perhaps the team should drop his paycheck just before it arrives in the bank
Remember what Tim McGraw did to his kid in Friday Night Lights?
You ever read the book? Simultaneously one of the greatest books ever about both football and Texas.
Nick Chubb and Jonathan taylor rank as the 60th-64th running backs on PFF in 2024. Its so sad watching them. Before anyone shits on PFF these two were top 5 every other season on their system.
But this fuels the "running backs don't matter" they're not worth any free agent dollars at all. Their performance is next to undrafted rookies right now. It's upsetting they got used up during their cheap rookie deal and stand as reasons to simply draft midround backs every 2 years and let them leave every every time they finish 4th year.
Chubb's legs have been destroyed, of course. I started writing this before he got hurt again last week.
When a RB has a great season, the team should look at it like so:
Chance he repeats next year: 75%
Chance he's still good in 2 years: 50%
Chance he's better than a Day Three draft pick in three years: 25%
That's how RB contracts, even Saquon's, are designed now.
Seems there are two issues with RBs:
1. The position is more dependent on the other 10 players around them than a QB, WR or TE.
2. Repeating performance is almost impossible. Partly bc of point #1 and partly bc of health challenges.
Teams with a Micah Parsons that needs an extension can reasonable assume he'll come close to replicating his performance the next 3-4 years; same with a receiver or LT, QB, edge rusher, CB. Just doesn't make sense to assume a RB will continue to produce bc history tells us that likely won't.
I feel like Chubb's glorious 4 years 2019-2022 we got to enjoy were borrowed time. He was considered a lesser prospect then Bulldog backfield mate Sony Michel. Partly because he was so injured in college. It was a risk taking him 2nd round that paid off big...Browns reaign only 12 million a year for 2021,2022 and a garbage 2023.
The "unfairness" of RB careers versus QB/OL/etc careers is exponentially magnified by the current rookie contract rules. There's nothing anyone can do, I think, about giving RBs the likelihood of playing as long as a lineman, but the league and the player's association could, if they wanted, eliminate the way that the rookie contract system penalizes players in positions with shorter career expectations.
Ultimately, parents of players with NFL-level talent need to keep their kids from becoming RBs. That goes against the star-power reputation of RBs at the highest school and college level, but is likely to be better for the kid in the long run.
For the 0.5% that become professional running backs you're 100% correct.
Wonder what will be James Cook contract. He is UFA in 2026. Maybe Bills Strike extension this offseason.
They probably will. Which means they will offer something Chuba like. If he doesn't like it, they will just take their chances. Notice how well Ray Davis and the Johnson fellow are playing.
Yeah agree with Mike. While Cook is good, he is far from ideal. He can break a big play and this year is doing a bit better after contact. But he still dances and hesitates behind the LOS too much for my tastes. He is also not a reliable pass catcher (hence Johnson and Davis seeing a lot of snaps on passing downs). Cook can generate splash plays on short and intermediate passes, and is deadly on a wheel route. Somebody somewhere said he positions his hands incorrectly on long passes, or maybe it's just repeated mental lapses. He'll get an offer but I'm assuming it won't be too close to top of the market.
A solid running game, regardless of back, is a joy to watch. When a team elects to receive the opening kick and then goes 70 yards with 8 carries mixed in, or when a team grinds out three first downs in the last six minutes to ice a game, that's fun to watch.
Matt LaFleur's game plans for the two games Love missed. Boys, hitch up your pants, we're gonna push them down the field. The motion, the blocking patterns. Ain't no questionable "illegal contact!" calls for first downs when you're grounding and pounding.
I'm here for the Count Chocula reference - beyond the analysis, it's what I needed to start the day. Well played, Mike.
My first favorite player in football when I was a little kid was Ron Johnson, Giants running back. My favorite player ever is Tony Dorsett.
The supposed ‘analytics’ of the running backs don’t matter brigade was always infuriating
Their basic argument was ‘look, this 6th rounder ran for a thousand yards, and because I’m a data obsessed numbers guy on the frontier of knowledge I can tell you this proves Running Backs don’t matter and using a first rounder on one is for Neanderthals ’
Totally ignoring the fact that at the same time that was happening a bunch of 6th rounders were holding their own or even excelling at non-stat positions like Tackle, Guard, Linebacker and Corner. So what in effect was happening was a bunch of self declared data nerds were dazzled by counting stats and eye test ‘analysis’ because they lacked the wit to do detailed data analysis on performance by position based on draft round
Great article, as usual, Mike. I really like the way FO clarified that when they say running back they mean that running back, with that offensive line, in that scheme. Having a good running back is important, but he's only the most obvious piece of the puzzle.
I just had an epiphany: the big story of the 2025 draft is going to be Brett Veach and the Chiefs trading up for Ashton Jeanty, isn't it?
"Jerry Jones might be fooled by Dowdle’s late-season surge, but for the rest of us, Dowdle is a reminder of the converse of the Running Back Rebirth: a great one can help a great team, but the lack of even a decent one can kneecap a bad one."
In the last six weeks Rico Dowdle is 2nd in the NFL in rushing, with 634 yards on 118 attempts (5.4 YPA). Prior to that Dowdle was sharing time and averaging less than 10 attempts per game.
This behind an OL that has had a rotating cast of no-names and unproven guys and a QB running a high school offense.
Since being given a larger role it's clear he's, at minimum, a "decent" NFL running back.
I'm also curious where you think someone like James Cook comes up in the current RB market?
Answered above. Cook is having a fine year. In a fantastic offense. He will get offered a Chuba contract when the extension comes up