Too Deep 96 #65: Jaxson Dart is Here, He's Kinda OK, and You're Never Too Desperate

This draft class' most polarizing prospect is a beauty in the eyes of some beholders. It all comes down to which games you watched.

If there are two first round-worthy quarterbacks in a draft class, then three quarterbacks will be taken in the first round. Or so the old saying goes. So we had better take a long look at Jaxson Dart, who kicks off the third round of the Too Deep 96 but could conceivably be drafted among the Top 20 in two weeks.

#65 Jaxson Dart, Quarterback, Ole Miss

Dart climbed into the first-round quarterback conversation thanks to a shortage of quarterbacks worthy of participating in such a conversation.

Dart has many of the ingredients that make up a franchise quarterback – three-and-a-half years as an SEC starter, some fantastic numbers, a Senior Bowl appearance, Manning Academy bona fides, the coolest quarterback prospect name to say aloud since Spencer Rattler – but neither the talent nor the film. That’s like having all of the ingredients for becoming a superhero except tech-billionaire genius and/or a radioactive spider.

Dart generated a lot of buzz during Senior Bowl week. Somehow, I missed the reason why while buzzing around the actual bleachers of Hancock-Whitney Stadium. Granted, I flew home during Dart’s final day of practice. He must have absolutely crushed it. He spent the first day mishandling snaps (Dart operated strictly out of the shotgun for the Rebels) during a glorified walkthrough that lulled most of the media to sleep. The second day of practice was also heavy on stretches and throwing against air; maybe I’m underestimating how good Dart looked against air.

Even if Dart became Tom Brady on the third day, there’s a chance that his “buzz” is based on two or three throws. Some draftniks are lightweights that way.

Or perhaps the buzz came from elsewhere.

Dart was made available to the media several times in Mobile, and the quarterback-thirsty Giants and Browns press corps were out in force. Dart was asked about his Manning Academy connections a few times; such questions are tailored to activate the New York audience.

Mind you, I am not claiming that the Dart as First-Round Franchise Quarterback buzz is entirely a result of the New York sports-media echo chamber. There’s also mock draft SEO activation to think about.

Dart is a shotgun touch passer with a lovely, lofty deep ball. His statistics are fantastic, even if you start breaking down splits. His Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt on passes of 20-plus air yards of 18.4, for example, ranked 12th in the nation among starting quarterbacks, though it is perhaps noteworthy that Will Howard (22.8), Jalen Milroe (20.8) and Dillon Gabriel (20.6) all ranked higher.

Both Dart’s raw stats and splits, however, are filled with potential distortions:

• 1,167 yards and 10 touchdowns against Furman, Middle Tennessee State and Georgia Southern.

• Four touchdowns and 404 yards against Duke in what could have been labeled the Opt Out Bowl. (Most of Duke’s starting defense played in the Gator Bowl, but the fact that they were down to their third string quarterback may have impacted their enthusiasm a bit.)

• Six touchdowns and 515 yards against Arkansas, a competitive opponent in mid-season. More about that later.

Dart helmed the most play-action heavy offense in the nation. He attempted 226 play-action passes; no other FCS quarterback attempted more than 200. His numbers on play-action were as amazing as most of his numbers: a 72.1% completion rate, 12.4 ANY/A. Watch Dart on film, and you will see him play-fake and float touch pass after touch pass: 17-of-19 for 375 yards against Arkansas, 16-of-18 for 351 against scuffling Wake Forest, 16-of-18 for 351 yards against Furman.

After a while, Dart’s film against second-through-fourth-tier opponents starts to look like 7-on-7 drills. But watch him against LSU (10-of-19 for 121 yards and an interception), and the suspicion creeps in that you were watching a quarterback thrive in structure while playing with the lead against inferior defenses in those other games.

That suspicion is confirmed when Dart’s pressure statistics are analyzed. His raw numbers when pressured look very good: 5.7 ANY/A, the third-best figure in the nation. (Gabriel was first.) Dart even led the nation with 9.7 yards per attempt when pressured, but 28 sacks and two interceptions nerf that figure a bit upon adjustment.

Now let’s break those pressure numbers down by game:

• Arkansas: 9-of-14, 171 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks

• Duke (Gator Bowl): 9-of-11, 165 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks

• Kentucky: 4-of-6, 129 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 4 sacks

• Oklahoma: 4-of-11, 76 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack

• South Carolina: 2-of-6, 70 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack

• Florida: 1-of-4, 11 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 4 sacks

• Georgia: 1-of-4, 7 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack

• LSU: 1-of-9, -1 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 6 sacks

Dart wasn’t pressured much by Ole Miss’ small-program opponents, because they were small-program opponents facing Ole Miss. He was excellent under pressure against Arkansas and Duke, capable of getting a pass off or two against some other opponents, and a helpless stumblebum against Florida, Georgia and LSU.

Any quarterback is likely to look worse against Georgia/LSU than most other opponents, but these are almost outlier splits. He didn’t just turn into a pumpkin, but also rotted on the front step and got smashed in the street by some juvenile delinquents.

How you feel about Dart, then, might come down to how you judge the Arkansas game. On the one hand, Arkansas is a credible SEC middleweight, and the game was in midseason, not on January 2nd like the Opt Out Bowl. Top receiver Tre Harris was also hurt for most of the game, leaving Dart at a disadvantage. Yet the Razorbacks, who had defensive troubles all year, could not cover anyone: Jordan Watkins (225 yards, 5 touchdowns) was often open by two steps downfield. The Rebels defensive line also laid waste to Arkansas’ offense, rendering the game non-competitive; the score was 28-3 midway through the second quarter.

If the Arkansas game is evidence of Dart’s excellence, then perhaps he has franchise NFL quarterback potential and is worth the first-round hype. If it was a glorified game of catch against an opponent that was ready to surrender long before halftime, then more weight must get placed on the LSU/Florida losses and the rock-fight win over Georgia, with all of their shaky panic throws and sacks.

Having studied quarterbacks like Dart for many years, I consider meaningful late-season battles against top competition more useful from a player-evaluation standpoints than midseason blowouts of opponents who look like they don’t know how zone coverage works.

Dart reminds me a lot of Mitch Trubisky and (yes) Daniel Jones: overdrafted first-rounders with pretty deep balls, sound mechanics and decent-to-good rushing ability who both cracked badly under pressure and lacked high-precision fastballs into traffic. Kenny Pickett also comes to mind as someone the NFL talked itself into because he was productive, met all the minimum requirements and could be sold as a poised/mature “leader” with intangibles to someone eager to buy. Sam Darnold, with his Jekyll-and-Hyde performances based on how much peril he faces, is Dart’s absolute upside.

If your team drafts Dart on Day Two, they are taking a reasonable developmental flyer on someone who could develop into a stopgap starter. A team that drafts him in the first round, however, is committing the NFL’s most common sin: mistaking the sound of the sport’s own mythmaking machinery for music.

Quote of Note: Dart, when asked at the Combine who he patterns his game after.

I think it’s a little bit of a cop-out because he just won the Super Bowl, but I love J. Hurts and what he does. I feel like I’m very similar in my play style to him. I feel like we can do a lot of the same things.

Obviously, he’s an elite player and I’m trying to reach that level. But he’s been somebody that I’ve tried to resemble because of his versatility: being able to run and throw the ball. And just how strong he is in the pocket. That’s something that I’ve had a lot of fun watching, observing his play style.

Many have dunked on this self-comparison. Others have tied themselves in knots to claim they see how Hurts and Dart are similar. My two cents: players can emulate whoever they like, but no one should compare himself to Hurts if A DEFENSIVE TACKLE ENTERS THE GAME TO RUN QUARTERBACK SNEAKS IN HIS PLACE.