Unrelenting Skepticism About Everything: Mailbag, Part II

Daniel Jones, the Bengals, the Patriots offensive line, Caleb Williams double-clutching, Dolphins bull***t, Chiefs officiating and other reasons to abandon all hope. Please like and subscribe!

The Too Deep Mailbag was so overstuffed with great questions that I broke it into two batches. Yesterday, we focused more on general topics and the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Today, let’s explore some specific teams, players and playoff scenarios.

Which undefeated team or teams miss the playoffs? – Daniel Winslow

Here are some numbers from the FTN Playoff Odds Report (the old Football Outsiders Playoff Odds Report):

• Bills: 92.9% chance to make the playoffs.

• Chiefs: 91.2% chance to make the playoffs.

• Seahawks: 79.9% chance to make the playoffs. 

• Vikings: 75.5% chance to make the playoffs.

• Steelers: 66.2% chance to make the playoffs.

DVOA analytics are over-optimistic about the Seahawks, in my opinion, because there are no opponent adjustments in the mix yet. The analytics also like the Ravens, which partially explains the Steelers situation. The Vikings’ odds are likely to improve when opponent adjustments are factored in.

I feel like the Seahawks have the highest likelihood to miss the playoffs. They don’t look very good, and they have not played anyone. The Steelers are also likely to fall off but have probably assured one of their 9-8 seventh-seed specials.

I'll toss you an easy one: What has surprised you the most so far this season? – Don

The Vikings’ 3-0 start. I think even folks who were optimistic about the Vikings, before or after the J.J. McCarthy injury, looked at the schedule and penciled in a 1-2 start. And the Vikings, unlike the Seahawks, are playing pretty well.

Are the Vikings for real? – Brandon

I touched on this a little both in Monday’s Walkthrough and in the first part of Mailbag. If you are asking if the Vikings can make the playoffs this year and are on the right track for long-term roster building: they are absolutely for real. Are they Super Bowl contenders? Let’s pump the air brakes. 

Hey Mike! Hope I'm not too late. Do you think that -especially for the surprising NFC teams like Vikings, Seahawks and Saints- an early good start (combined with some slow starting heavyweights like the Niners) merits extra expenditure in free agency at current weak spots or depth? I understand that they should be hesitant about mortgaging the future, but if there's little opportunity now, why would you prefer it over potential opportunity later on. A playoff run is the same in 2024 as it is in 2026. – Ferdi Braakman

I am assuming you are talking about trade-deadline deals, not free agency, for teams seeking immediate help. 

The Saints are living in their own mortgaged future. They would be taking out a seventh mortgage at this point! I suppose it would make sense for them to dig their hole just a little bit deeper for, say, another edge rusher or a possession receiver. But we are really in Die Broke territory.

The Vikings will get Jordan Addison back soon and T.J. Hockensen back eventually. That is reason enough for them to stay the course.

As for the Seahawks, remember when they traded two first-round picks for Jamal Adams to be their missing Super Bowl piece? The Seahawks need to self-scout honestly and recognize that they are a seventh-seed playoff team who are one splashy move away from being a sixth-seeded playoff team. 

(Oh, and I just realized while editing this that Jamal Adams is actually playing for the Titans. Like, on the field and everything! Who knew?)

We will touch on the Vikings a little more after some other questions. 

What are the chances the chiefs threepeat? And what is the biggest thing(s) they need to do/change in order to do so? – JT

The Chiefs have a 10.6% chance of winning a third straight Super Bowl, per DVOA analysis. The Bills have a 1n 18.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl, the Ravens (like I said, the analytics dig them) a 11.5% chance. Sunday’s Bills-Ravens game will sort those percentages out a bit.

We can talk about the fact that Travis Kelce looks like brisket at this point, or rhat Isiah Pacheco will be out for weeks and Marquise Brown for months. But have you seen the Chiefs’ schedule? The AFC West is a pastry shop. The Chiefs get gimpy Justin Herbert (who may be missing both offensive tackles) next week in Los Angeles, and that’s their tough test. NFC foes like the Saints and Buccaneers are already returning to earth. Deshaun Watson could be floating in the Cuyahoga River by the time Chiefs visit Cleveland in Week 15. 

The Chiefs need to take care of business against weak opponents and collect as many wins as possible against the Bills in Week 11, the Texans in Week 16 and the Steelers on Christmas. (Their matchup with the 49ers in Week 7 has few playoff tiebreaker implications.) If they secure as many home playoff games as possible and get Pacheco and (maybe) Brown back, they will be in as good a shape as they ever are.

Reasons why the Chiefs keep getting all the calls/non-calls? NFL collusion, referee conscious bias, referee unconscious bias, non-Chiefs fans are haters? Honest question, as I am a hater but can't tell if I'm also right about the conspiracy theories. – Dave S.

The Patriots got all the calls/non-calls for 20 years. The Cowboys got all the calls/non-calls in the 1990s. That’s because those teams were always on television, where they were watched both by legions of haters (like you!) and casual fans.

When you are emotionally invested in the game, you perceive the referees as working against you, while casual fans are more likely to get swept up in officiating narratives because they don’t realize how over-officiated the average Seahawks-Dolphins game is. Perennial powerhouse teams might receive a slight “star call” advantage — the unconscious bias you suggest — but most they-get-all-the-calls grousing is a combination of attention bias and selection bias.

Officials called 31 yards of penalties for three first downs on the final Falcons possession of Sunday night’s game. That’s an awfully strange way to favor the Chiefs.

It’s also worth noting that some folks may harbor extreme grudges against the Chiefs for political reasons, on both sides of the aisle, for sundry Taylor Swift/Brittany Mahomes/Harrison Butker-related reasons. Conspiracy-minded individuals tend to project their boogeymen onto familiar cultural institutions like Disney, Walmart … and the NFL.

Knew that the ATL 4th down long developing run would be called out in Walkthrough. Previous to that, there were two WR screens to Mooney. While this is the Falcons, what is the reason teams do this instead of passing to the middle of the field? Do they really see something they believe exploitable or is it kinda just a dart throw at the playbook? – Thomas Czarples

I studied the second Mooney screen of the final Falcons drive: the first wasn’t in the NFL Pro search tool, perhaps because there was a penalty on the play.

The Falcons lined up with Mooney inside Tyler Allgeier on the left. The Chiefs were showing a blitz from the offensive right, with only Nazeeh Johnson opposite Mooney and Allgeier. Trent McDuffie appeared to be blitzing an interior gap, and he cheated toward the line when Kirk Cousins gave a hard count. With that, Mooney motioned to the left sideline. You can see the logic of what the Falcons are doing: Mooney, with a blocker in front of him and one defender to beat, on a quick pass to neutralize the blitz.

What’s funny is that Mooney made an exaggerated motion with his head at the hard count, while Johnson began cheating to the outside before Mooney goes in motion. McDuffie also immediately raced over to help Johnson. It sure looked like the Chiefs knew how the Falcons would react to their blitz, and Mooney’s reaction might have been an extra tell. The result was a two-yard loss, in part because Allgeier isn’t much of a blocker (see the game-icing fourth-down stop).

I am gonna chalk all this up to Steve Spagnuolo’s coaching: it looked like he wanted the Falcons to force the ball to Mooney in the flat frequently on Sunday night, and the Chiefs defense was usually there to gang-tackle (or horse-collar tackle) him.

Daniel Jones (shockingly) has been in the top 10 of QBR each of the past two weeks. What kind of disaster will happen to the Giants as a result? Does he play just well enough that they miss a draft pick for a QB? Does he keep the season alive long enough that when he finally gets injured it guarantees his salary for next year? Does he just return back to meh Daniel Jones and we remember this as an amusing blip early in the season? – Daniel

Jones remains Jones. He now has Malik Nabers to throw to, the Browns kept handing the ball back to him, and expectations are so low that folks are shocked when he does not tie his shoelaces to the goalpost. 

Try to take the optimistic approach with Jones: maybe he plays well enough to help Nabers develop and allow the pass rush to seal some victories, creating a healthier environment for his successor.

Another Jones question:

What the heck is actually going on with Daniel Jones , Sam Darnold? I can't suffer through giants all 22. Its silent, But if I had a Substack id spend all week on it. – GT Counter

The Giants scored their first touchdown against the Browns thanks to a 23-yard screen pass to Devin Singletary; a Jones interception to start the drive was negated by a roughing-the-passer foul. Malik Nabers plucked a 50-50 ball out of his defender’s hands, then Super Mario double-jumped to haul in the Giants second touchdown. Descuzzball Watson then fumbled at his own 30-yard line with 32 seconds left before halftime, setting up a Jones strike to Nabers to make the score 21-7. The Giants and Browns spent the second half playing tennis, with neither side doing much offensively. 

Jones faced the Commanders in Week 2. You saw their defense in action on Monday night. The Giants mustered 18 points, mostly thanks to Nabers. Jones’ success is essentially Nabers and situations.

Darnold has played better than Jones. He has also only had to throw two passes while playing from behind this entire season. Fans (and many of my colleagues) lose sight of how easy it is for a quarterback to look good when playing with a lead: fewer forced passes, sacks, unnecessary risks and so forth. Darnold has also benefited from short drives after turnovers in each of the last two weeks. We’re way too early in the season for such advantages to have balanced themselves out.

Jones and Darnold are broadly similar in that they each have some undeniable starter’s traits and can oscillate between being third-quartile NFL starters and mistake-plagued liabilities. When Darnold’s power-ups wear off, he is benched and changes teams. When Jones goes from lukewarm to comical, he stays in the lineup until getting injured because #Giants. Folks are always mildly surprised when each of them strings a few decent games together, but we shouldn’t be: this is what below-average quarterback play looks like.

If it was revealed that John Mara had attended one of that NYC COVID czar's underground sex parties, wouldn’t that automatically make the Giants better this season? – Peter Richmond

Only if his niece showed up wearing a dragon tattoo and set fire to everything.

I have no idea what Peter is referring to and refuse to look it up.

What are we to think of the NFC East? Jones plays well against an arguably good Browns defense, Philly still has its 2023 second-half issues, the Cowboys look lost and the Commanders are still the Commanders. Is the NFC East the new NFC South? — Richard Woollams

The NFC East is the new AFC South, which usually throws up one fun-but-flawed team (the Eagles) and three chumpity-chumps.

Having watched all three Browns games, I get the feeling that they are far worse than anyone expected them to be. Descuzzball is a mess, their offensive line is wracked with injuries, they are short on playmakers, Myles Garrett is playing on bad feet, and the rest of the defense may be pressing to win singlehandedly while also regressing to the mean. By extension, that makes the Cowboys’ “impressive” Week 1 far less impressive, making it hard for me to pinpoint what they are supposed to be good at right now.

The Commanders qualify as an “on the right track” team, not a playoff-caliber team.

What the heck happened to Texans? They had a great run and pass game week 1. — GT Counter

The Texans have committed 16 holding, false start or formation penalties in the last two weeks. It’s hard to play offense when it is always first-and-15.

Jaguars fan looking for insight into Doug Pederson. Before he was hired it seemed like he was the victim of some internal issues in Philly, since then things are playing out in a certain way that makes me wonder about his leadership qualities. Maybe seems like he’s been living off his SB victory from 7 years ago and being Andy’s BFF… – George

There were several other Pederson questions. Thanks for submitting them!

Pederson may be the best actual human being among the established NFL coaches. He may also be the one who has achieved a little too much work-life balance. There were lots of stories in Philly about his early-evening midweek dining habits when the Eagles were losing; I don’t expect NFL coaches to be sleep-deprived rage ferrets, but high school coaches have a hard time carving out autumn date nights.

Pederson runs short practices and finds lots of reasons to cancel them; he all-but canceled an entire minicamp in 2022 and 2023. Finally, when Carson Wentz made it clear that he did not want to be pushed too hard in practice, Pederson and coordinator Press Taylor stopped pushing him. 

All of these “players’ coach” tendencies are fine and dandy until your team is underachieving because of mental mistakes and execution errors, which tend to flare up after the initial “We Luv This Guy” rush wears off.

On a scale of 1 to 10, how worried should Dolphins fans be for this season? 11? 15? Also, why can't Dolphins fans have nice things? – FinsUp72

Twenty-five.

The Dolphins generally suffer from a combination of wishful thinking and bull***t behind the scenes. Like, Brian Flores is a great defensive coordinator, but as a head coach the man was walking bull***t behind the scenes. Vic Fangio’s quick departure last year reeks of behind-the-scenes bull***t. Jeff Ireland, BullyGate, Adam Gase, Stephen Ross playing footsie with Tom Brady. It’s all bull***t behind the scenes. I am reluctant to single Ross out since there are a dozen other owners capable of similar levels of bull***t. 

What makes the Dolphins special is that they are usually paying super-premium prices for talent while simultaneously tearing themselves apart from within. That’s how you get a team like the current one: expensive, past-its-prime in some troubling places, but doomed thanks to one injury.

When trying to break in a rookie/young QB which is the more important building block: a solid line or skill position players? – Jackie Daytona

This is a huge, existential football question with no one answer.

After watching the Commanders on Monday night, I thought: “Gosh, adding Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler was a great idea! Each has a little in the tank, neither cost that much, and both make helpful security blankets for Jayden Daniels!”

Then I watched Will Levis film — we will get there in a moment — and I thought: “Calvin Ridley is dynamic, but Tyler Boyd is just a name, and Tony Pollard can only do so much as a dual-threat on a team with a Swiss cheese line and a fumble-factory quarterback.”

I feel like the most important thing a team can do for a young quarterback is keep expectations low and situations manageable.  That’s probably easier to do by prioritizing the line and playing caveman ball, rather than adding a bunch of guys who will get the fantasy community talking. But the Panthers tried that, and look where it got them. Ultimately, the quarterback (and coaches) must do their part.

Who ends 2024 with more games started, Bryce Young or Russell Wilson? – Jay

Jameis Winston. 

If you were in charge of the Panthers, would you consider going back to Young later in the season? If so, when would be the best time? – Jason Manley

Never. The Panthers should find a rube and trade Spud Young ASAP. Though I doubt such a rube exists. When insiders report that “the Panthers are fielding calls about Young,” they are doing bidding for both the Panthers (drumming up a market) and Young’s representation/friends (He just needs a change of scenery.) 

How long until we see Will Levis benched in Tennessee, or is he a symptom, and not part of the problem ? – Don

Levis is concentrated Carson Wentz. There are enough positives in his game to keep a team hopeful that he will develop, but his blooper reel is sensational. His offensive line is porous, but he’s a force multiplier for mistakes: a sack may be a lineman’s fault, but he makes sure to fumble as well. And the more decisions he must make, the higher the likelihood of calamity.

The Titans are in the place where the Steelers were with Kenny Pickett last year. They spent the offseason selling fans/themselves on what a leader Levis had become and how he’s the perfect guy to run Brian Callahan’s offense. It’s hard to insert Mason Rudolph after three weeks without looking ridiculous in a way that will resonate in the locker room and owner’s box. So Levis will have a long leash.

You covered the limitations on Caleb Williams on Monday, but could the hot mess that is the Bears' offense be the result of a bad offensive line, poor rushing, or uninspired play calling? – Mitch

Williams has dropped back to pass 137 times, the second-highest figure in the NFL. That tells us a few things right off the bat. 

First, Williams has been playing from behind for most of the season: on 115 of those dropbacks, to be precise. 

Second, if we assume that even the most prepared rookie is only comfortable executing a certain percentage of the playbook (or perhaps knows lots of plays, but only enough to connect with his first read), it’s safe to assume that he’s doing lots of things he’s not comfortable with, or that Shane Waldron is simplifying/repeating things out of necessity, or both. So you will understand why I am reluctant to blame Waldron for not having 45 unique and creative passing concepts per game in the queue for a rookie.

I would classify the Bears offensive line as below average but not terrible. There have been some bad whiffs, but again: there will be a few whiffs with 45 dropbacks per game, especially when most of them come at times when the defense can take risks.

The running game has been an issue, though it appears to be sorting itself out a bit; a 12-yard loss on fourth-and-short made a bad running game look worse against the Colts. Khalil Herbert is slipperier than D’Andre Swift, and Roschon Johnson is more of a bulldozer. We will see more of them. But yes: Williams is stuck in third-and-long an awful lot.

One thing I noticed when watching Williams’ sacks is a lack of obvious hot routes. The defense threatens with six defenders, everyone knows a blitz is very likely, but there’s no obvious quick, short pass. Either Williams hasn’t been given permission to make that sort of adjustment at the line of scrimmage or he hasn’t learned how to do it yet. That’s not damning for a rookie after three starts, but it should be high on the Williams/Waldron to-do list.

Another thing that becomes obvious when watching Williams is how often he double-clutches. He double-clutched on both interceptions against the Colts; on this one, you can see how his moment of indecision makes things easy for cornerback Jaylon Jones. Williams also double-clutches before scrambling, getting sacked, and possibly brushing his teeth. That’s a sign that he does not trust what he sees. It also throws off the timing of the passing game.

Overall, the Bears have a case of the rookie growing pains, and folks are only shocked because we kept hearing how Williams was already Patrick Mahomes in August.

I’m watching the Bengals getting throttled in the first half and my immediate reaction is “Are they fraudulent?” Is this a Burrow issue? Defensive brain drain on and off the field? Or is it a Zac Taylor issue? For what it’s worth, i thought the Bengals made it to the Super Bowl in spite of Zac Taylor and still think he is not a great/good/above average coach. – Matt Fernandez

I think Taylor is a lot like Doug Pederson, living off his Super Bowl and his connections, but without the cool pastor vibe.

The Bengals have had a different problem each week, making it hard to pinpoint a specific issue. One common problem: the defense looks sluggish, which has contributed to tackling issues. (It’s hard to get a clean shot on a guy when you arrive late.)  Their pass rush also consists of waiting around for Trey Hendrickson to do everything. Their defense is losing at the point of attack. Their offense is coming around now that Tee Higgins has returned and Ja’Marr Chase is fully with the program.

I think the Bengals will pull themselves together, starting with Sunday’s Andy Dalton Revenge Game. But “pull themselves together” might mean 9-8 at this point. This is not a franchise headed in the right direction. 

What's the real reason for the Patriots O-line sucking so badly? Poor drafting, injuries, it's Bill's fault, or it's a multi-year rebuild and you can't do it all in one year? – Dave S.

Some thoughts from other readers:

Damn good question. All of the above. – Ellen Mathia

A lot of is poor planning at the tackle position. Planning to start Okorafor at LT was already dicey before he went poof and drafting a 3rd round RT Wallace to play LT is another bad idea. Injuries have exacerbated the problem but tackle was gonna be a problem for them even if everything went according to plan. – Thomas Czarples

I didn’t hate the Chukwuma Okorafor plan. Like it or not, he’s the sort of lineman you get when shopping in the free agent discount store. He started the opener at left tackle, played a dozen snaps, got benched and nope’d out. The fact that a former Steelers veteran got fed up and quit after two weeks is worth monitoring from a team-culture standpoint.

Vederian Lowe, who was banged up at the end of training camp, replaced Okorafor in Week 1. Lowe, who is below average at best, suffered a knee injury against the Seahawks. The Patriots hoped to bring Caedan Wallace along slowly, using him as a sixth lineman against the Bengals. His Thursday night struggles against the Jets were much commented upon.

Guard Cole Strange was a first-round reach in 2022 and is dealing with a significant knee injury. Journeyman Michael Jordan, who the Bengals and Panthers both gave up on, replaced Strange until he got hurt as well. Sidy Sow, another bad player with a silly name, missed the start of the season with an ankle injury. Fourth-round pick Layden Robinson has been dreadful in his place. 

Strange and Wallace were the Patriots’ only draft picks in the first three rounds along the offensive line since 2020. As mentioned, Strange was a small-program vanity pick, while Wallace is moving from right to left tackle. You can see the old we’re smarter than the league mentality seeping through both choices. The Patriots have not been able to prioritize the offensive line in the 2020s because they have been forced to prioritize EVERYTHING once their empire collapsed. 

In summary: yes, all of the above. 

I need you to put your Darth Hoodie on for this one. Which team(s) will target Bill Belichick this off season and, which would be the most tempting for him? – Dwight Jon Zimmerman

Belichick has deep Giants roots. He will pick the phone up if John Mara calls, and Mara will offer control of football operations. 

Shad Khan can be charming and convincing. He, too, will offer complete control, and is more likely to be serious about it than Mara (he’s more of a soccer guy). Florida has no state income tax. Trevor Lawrence appears highly salvageable. 

I don’t think Belichick would consider working for the Colts or Browns owners. The Panthers are right out. Mike Brown would not meet his contract and personnel-control expectations in Cincy. The Magnificent McCaskeys would likely balk at Belichick taking absolute control over the Bears family fiefdom. (Pairing Belichick with Caleb Williams would also be a choice.) Stephen Ross can offer money, low taxes and South Beach, but I don’t think Belichick would want to work for him. Ditto Jerry Jones, despite the SEO friendliness of the pairing. Belichick would likely call Bill Parcells before considering either offer. 

Belichick is not coaching right now because he’s a square peg: expensive, baggage-laden, demanding, old. He’s not getting any smoother around the edges in his roles as a media gadfly and septuagenarian lothario, especially as the NFL adjusts to the Zoomer generation of players. Would you want to hire an executive who expects gobs of control and money but is likely to both clash with senior management AND struggle to relate to his employees?

Thanks for all of your questions! See everyone first thing Monday morning!