Daniel Jones, the Bengals, the Patriots offensive line, Caleb Williams double-clutching, Dolphins bull***t, Chiefs officiating and other reasons to abandon all hope. Please like and subscribe!
Re: the Chiefs get all the calls. I respect Dave S. for admitting his potential bias. There's also an easy solution (if you care enough): look at the data and the film. Since Mahomes became a starter, the Chiefs have had 3 seasons of net negative penalties and 3 seasons of net positive penalties. That doesn't suggest much of a bias.
Now, what about high-leverage situations? Well, for example, the Chiefs had 4 TDs taken off the board due to offensive penalties in 2023 while opponents had no TDs reversed.
You can also look at the film: nearly all of the high-leverage calls that helped the Chiefs these past several years were clear-cut penalties. (although I do think that OPI on Kittle in Super Bowl 54 was probably of the ticky-tack variety). Likewise, some of the calls that hurt the Chiefs were ticky-tack while most were legit. That's how it goes.
Penalty variance does happen, but it's more a function of officiating style and competence than intent, and it tends to even out over time. What doesn't tend to even out, as Mike noted, is our emotional attachment to a specific event and the way it colors our beliefs. That takes hard work by the individual to overcome, and most of us don't want to or usually need to make the effort.
This is great! And I did comb through penalty data a bit. There were no smoking guns and I had a lot of topics to cover, so I did not run with it.
Another thing I wanted to point out: Didya ever notice that the big penalty storylines almost NEVER come out of a Sunday 1 PM game? They are always Sunday Nighters or the big late-afternoon Chiefs or Cowboys broadcast. That's a sure sign that attention bias is at play: 20 penalties could go against, say, the Titans in a loss to the Colts, and no one would be talking about it.
One of the most high profile calls in a Chiefs game was the 2018 AFC Championship where KC intercepted Tom Brady late in the game, only to find out Dee Ford forgot what side of the field he was supposed to line up on. So at that point it was “Look, the Patriots got bailed out by the refs and the Chiefs don’t get any help” only it was the correct call. And the Patriots ended up getting SB #6
I saw a deep analysis of a similar question on a soccer site a few years back “why do Manchester United get all the calls/non-calls?”
The answer similar to the above was “they don’t”, but the analysis did find that home field advantage essentially boils down to officials’ bias as crowd reactions influence decisions.
This could be analysed for NFL but it’s a very big piece of work I’m not volunteering to do.
Having Andy Dalton lead the Panthers to 30 plus points and a win surely didn't help the Bryce Young camp with any claim that poor personnel around him was Young's issue. The change of scenery Young needs can only be provided by a stepladder. I can't imagine anyone touching him. Even next to a blitzing corner Young looks like a junior high kid on an NFL field.
I can buy into a "Bryce Young goes to Canada and becomes Flutie" storyline. If he comes back to be a borderline Pro Bowler for two or three years in 2033 I will eat crow.
I asked my question about when I can stop worrying about my team and enjoy them being good only for all of my worst fears about the Seahawks to be affirmed by Mike. They even got a few drive-by's in other segments.
Sorry Mike, I meant I was hoping you would say "don't worry the Seahawks are fine". Instead I learned my pessimistic outlook was not only justified but the Seahawks were the butt of several jokes.
Based on gut feel, if everyone gets fired by the Giants, that's where Bellichick goes. Too good of a full circle story to resist. The Giants probably need more pieces than the Jaguars however.
It's a good story, but that's it. The Giants have a questionable OL and no QB. Why would Belichick take on a rebuilding project in NY when the Jags are much closer to relevance?
You're presuming Beli will have such a choice. This past offseason he had none. And Kraft will do all he can to make that the case next offseason, too.
You make a good point. But you're only getting Belichick for a couple of years at most (I suspect he's only coming back to get Shula's wins record). If you need a full rebuild, you don't want a guy with a built-in expiration date.
John Mara & Bill Belichick both seem like they would think that the Belichick Giants would be a legendary pairing, despite any and all evidence otherwise.
Giants punted 7 times against the Browns and barely cracked 300 total yards against a Commanders defense that’s one of the bottom 10 of the DVOA known universe. So I’m not sold on Dimes’ turnaround.
Darnold however is my CPOY +6000 buddy. I won’t hear a word spoken against him
I wouldn't be surprised if Bill Belichick didn't get any offers he liked - the age is the scary thing to me; I don't know that I'd be willing to hand over full control of my personnel and culture to a guy who might have the energy to work another few years.
Maybe Jerry Reinsdorf should consider him to run the White Sox?
The Titans OL is soooo bad. I don’t know what the numbers say about the last game but it looked like they quit in the 4th quarter. That or they were just badly exposed by then. Levis had several plays where he was surrounded by 2 or 3 guys by the time he hit his back foot. Two top 10ish picks in the last two years spent on the line, a big free agent acquisition at center, best OL coach in the league, and the line looks worse than last year
Jaelyn Duncan came in after the big sack/turnover and it must be like getting queued into a casual Rocket League game where you're down 3 goals and you have two bots as teammates or no one cares.
re: Doug Pederson "There were lots of stories in Philly about his early-evening midweek dining habits when the Eagles were losing; I don’t expect NFL coaches to be sleep-deprived rage ferrets, but high school coaches have a hard time carving out autumn date nights."
I think its a bit of an apples to oranges comparison. HS coaches dont actually get to start coaching their players until mid afternoon because of school. I know its a bit of a tongue in cheek joke, so I acknowledge some nit picking here. Having said that, he is dead man walking right now. And it looks like he will be near the top of a click baity "Worse SB Winning Head Coaches Ever" list for evermore.
Fun fact: ferrets will happily sleep 18 or more hours per day. Even if they get as much sleep as the average teenager attempts to get, a ferret will become sleep-deprived fairly quickly. Not sure how rage-induced they will become by that, but you don't want to get on their bad side, 'cuz those little guys can hide just about anywhere and leap out at you when you least expect it.
No idea how to turn this back into a comment about Doug Pederson and his coaching style / acumen. I could turn it into a comment about high school football coaches, but I'm not going to do that because it wouldn't be fair to most (some? a few?) of them. (There are some really good people volunteering to be coaches! I shouldn't tar them all with a ferret brush.)
For referee bias, I am of the opinion that the referees are almost always biased in favor of themselves, and almost never of a specific team. So, they will be divided between protecting their well being and/or reputation and making the right non-obvious call.
I think that was in clear display in the Falcons Chiefs game. They honestly got the pass interference call wrong. They were not trying to favor KC, they just made a mistake. They knew it, and weighted the hand in favor of the Falcons the next drive (hence the 31 penalty yards). It kind of reduced the pressure on them — while kind of trying to restore some fairness.
Having gotten to know a few former NFL refs over the years, one thing I can tell you: the league HATES make-up calls and will come down on refs they suspect of making them.
That does not mean make-up calls do not happen, but it does mean that they aren't really covering their butts when they make them.
Ah, yes, I don't think make up calls are common. But I still think sometimes a bad call makes them give the affected team more "benefit of the doubt". Not that they will call a penalty that didn't happen or let them get away with obvious irregularities, but if they are not sure, they will weigh a little more favorably the team they just innocently screwed.
It’s a Substack Chat. I just tried to share/invite you but couldn’t see you which might mean you’re already on it. Or that I can’t work Substack. Or both. Anyway tap the chat icon from Home and see what you see.
I think part of Pederson's/Press' problem is simply tactical. While watching them come apart in the latter Wentz years, it struck me that 'Wentz is supposed to have a gun, yet they are throwing all these dinky-dunkie passes. Does Doug Pederson see Wentz as simply a super-improved 'quarterback Doug Pederson', throwing the dinkies with more velocity and far more likely to connect on the (very, very) occasional long pass?'
I'm now fully convinced of that. Just as Lombardi (wasn't it??) looked at Herbert and saw another Drew Brees, Doug Pederson sees every quarterback as another Doug Pederson. A billionaire's Doug Pederson in some cases, but still a quarterback who like every quarterback ought to be running a 'quarterback Doug Pederson' style passing offense. Throwing one dink pass after another, which was all the original Quarterback Doug Pederson could handle, just doing it better.
I don't get Jaguars games on network TV, and I'm sure not going out of my way to watch one. But from the box scores they look a whole lot like that famed Patricia/Joe Judge offense.
I am not sure I agree with this. Both Lawrence and Wentz throw downfield a good bit. And really, you don't want Wentz standing in the pocket thinking he's Superman all that often!
For Bengals fans, I would not worry about the offense. They did not punt a single time last week. Granted, Washington’s defense is terrible. But still, the offense doesn’t seem to be the issue
Re last question: a concerned Iggles' fan writes: You mean Bill wouldn't take a call from Jeff Lurie next Tuesday to replace Sirianni if Birds play on Sunday like they've played the last couple of weeks?
Howie would block a BB hire if Jeff is still listening to Howie.
Also ... the Eagles are 2-1 and beat 2 good opponents? And would be 3-0 if not for 45 stupid seconds of football? I wish I could bottle Eagles pessimism and use it as an energy source.
Re: the Chiefs get all the calls. I respect Dave S. for admitting his potential bias. There's also an easy solution (if you care enough): look at the data and the film. Since Mahomes became a starter, the Chiefs have had 3 seasons of net negative penalties and 3 seasons of net positive penalties. That doesn't suggest much of a bias.
Now, what about high-leverage situations? Well, for example, the Chiefs had 4 TDs taken off the board due to offensive penalties in 2023 while opponents had no TDs reversed.
You can also look at the film: nearly all of the high-leverage calls that helped the Chiefs these past several years were clear-cut penalties. (although I do think that OPI on Kittle in Super Bowl 54 was probably of the ticky-tack variety). Likewise, some of the calls that hurt the Chiefs were ticky-tack while most were legit. That's how it goes.
Penalty variance does happen, but it's more a function of officiating style and competence than intent, and it tends to even out over time. What doesn't tend to even out, as Mike noted, is our emotional attachment to a specific event and the way it colors our beliefs. That takes hard work by the individual to overcome, and most of us don't want to or usually need to make the effort.
This is great! And I did comb through penalty data a bit. There were no smoking guns and I had a lot of topics to cover, so I did not run with it.
Another thing I wanted to point out: Didya ever notice that the big penalty storylines almost NEVER come out of a Sunday 1 PM game? They are always Sunday Nighters or the big late-afternoon Chiefs or Cowboys broadcast. That's a sure sign that attention bias is at play: 20 penalties could go against, say, the Titans in a loss to the Colts, and no one would be talking about it.
I am no one.
One of the most high profile calls in a Chiefs game was the 2018 AFC Championship where KC intercepted Tom Brady late in the game, only to find out Dee Ford forgot what side of the field he was supposed to line up on. So at that point it was “Look, the Patriots got bailed out by the refs and the Chiefs don’t get any help” only it was the correct call. And the Patriots ended up getting SB #6
I saw a deep analysis of a similar question on a soccer site a few years back “why do Manchester United get all the calls/non-calls?”
The answer similar to the above was “they don’t”, but the analysis did find that home field advantage essentially boils down to officials’ bias as crowd reactions influence decisions.
This could be analysed for NFL but it’s a very big piece of work I’m not volunteering to do.
I thought the question was, why does Manchester United get whatever stoppage time they need at Old Trafford? 😄
Having Andy Dalton lead the Panthers to 30 plus points and a win surely didn't help the Bryce Young camp with any claim that poor personnel around him was Young's issue. The change of scenery Young needs can only be provided by a stepladder. I can't imagine anyone touching him. Even next to a blitzing corner Young looks like a junior high kid on an NFL field.
Someone will touch him once he’s won CFL’s MOP 6 times.
I can buy into a "Bryce Young goes to Canada and becomes Flutie" storyline. If he comes back to be a borderline Pro Bowler for two or three years in 2033 I will eat crow.
You’ll be eating Bryce Bytes
Nobody ever invites me to underground sex parties. I am living my life wrong.
Actually means you're living your life right. Hate to ruin the joke, tho'.
I prefer to not be buried during sexual activities. Am I missing out on something?
Did you never wonder what really happened to Mole Man’s eyesight?
I mean, what might someone like Mole Man do too often, sexually, to go blind?
Imagine what Reed Richards could do at an underground sex party.
You might gaze upon a highly reflective diamond deposit to unsee that
Google it, Mike. No seriously, do it. (I owe you some trauma payback after your elephant intro).
no.
I asked my question about when I can stop worrying about my team and enjoy them being good only for all of my worst fears about the Seahawks to be affirmed by Mike. They even got a few drive-by's in other segments.
I also answered yours in part 1 of mailbag!
Sorry Mike, I meant I was hoping you would say "don't worry the Seahawks are fine". Instead I learned my pessimistic outlook was not only justified but the Seahawks were the butt of several jokes.
Heh. They are "fine" in that they can reach the playoffs and maybe McDonald's system can take hold, contribute to the development of young guys, etc.
Based on gut feel, if everyone gets fired by the Giants, that's where Bellichick goes. Too good of a full circle story to resist. The Giants probably need more pieces than the Jaguars however.
So it may be written in the book of Armaments.
It's a good story, but that's it. The Giants have a questionable OL and no QB. Why would Belichick take on a rebuilding project in NY when the Jags are much closer to relevance?
You're presuming Beli will have such a choice. This past offseason he had none. And Kraft will do all he can to make that the case next offseason, too.
You make a good point. But you're only getting Belichick for a couple of years at most (I suspect he's only coming back to get Shula's wins record). If you need a full rebuild, you don't want a guy with a built-in expiration date.
John Mara & Bill Belichick both seem like they would think that the Belichick Giants would be a legendary pairing, despite any and all evidence otherwise.
Giants punted 7 times against the Browns and barely cracked 300 total yards against a Commanders defense that’s one of the bottom 10 of the DVOA known universe. So I’m not sold on Dimes’ turnaround.
Darnold however is my CPOY +6000 buddy. I won’t hear a word spoken against him
I respect your commitment to the prop
I wouldn't be surprised if Bill Belichick didn't get any offers he liked - the age is the scary thing to me; I don't know that I'd be willing to hand over full control of my personnel and culture to a guy who might have the energy to work another few years.
Maybe Jerry Reinsdorf should consider him to run the White Sox?
The Titans OL is soooo bad. I don’t know what the numbers say about the last game but it looked like they quit in the 4th quarter. That or they were just badly exposed by then. Levis had several plays where he was surrounded by 2 or 3 guys by the time he hit his back foot. Two top 10ish picks in the last two years spent on the line, a big free agent acquisition at center, best OL coach in the league, and the line looks worse than last year
It's Petit-Frere at right tackle. The others are kinda OK, though you are right that they just looked gassed or demoralized late in the Packers game.
Jaelyn Duncan came in after the big sack/turnover and it must be like getting queued into a casual Rocket League game where you're down 3 goals and you have two bots as teammates or no one cares.
Oh Duncan is remarkably bad. But he played, what, a dozen snaps?
re: Doug Pederson "There were lots of stories in Philly about his early-evening midweek dining habits when the Eagles were losing; I don’t expect NFL coaches to be sleep-deprived rage ferrets, but high school coaches have a hard time carving out autumn date nights."
I think its a bit of an apples to oranges comparison. HS coaches dont actually get to start coaching their players until mid afternoon because of school. I know its a bit of a tongue in cheek joke, so I acknowledge some nit picking here. Having said that, he is dead man walking right now. And it looks like he will be near the top of a click baity "Worse SB Winning Head Coaches Ever" list for evermore.
Fun fact: ferrets will happily sleep 18 or more hours per day. Even if they get as much sleep as the average teenager attempts to get, a ferret will become sleep-deprived fairly quickly. Not sure how rage-induced they will become by that, but you don't want to get on their bad side, 'cuz those little guys can hide just about anywhere and leap out at you when you least expect it.
No idea how to turn this back into a comment about Doug Pederson and his coaching style / acumen. I could turn it into a comment about high school football coaches, but I'm not going to do that because it wouldn't be fair to most (some? a few?) of them. (There are some really good people volunteering to be coaches! I shouldn't tar them all with a ferret brush.)
For referee bias, I am of the opinion that the referees are almost always biased in favor of themselves, and almost never of a specific team. So, they will be divided between protecting their well being and/or reputation and making the right non-obvious call.
I think that was in clear display in the Falcons Chiefs game. They honestly got the pass interference call wrong. They were not trying to favor KC, they just made a mistake. They knew it, and weighted the hand in favor of the Falcons the next drive (hence the 31 penalty yards). It kind of reduced the pressure on them — while kind of trying to restore some fairness.
Having gotten to know a few former NFL refs over the years, one thing I can tell you: the league HATES make-up calls and will come down on refs they suspect of making them.
That does not mean make-up calls do not happen, but it does mean that they aren't really covering their butts when they make them.
Ah, yes, I don't think make up calls are common. But I still think sometimes a bad call makes them give the affected team more "benefit of the doubt". Not that they will call a penalty that didn't happen or let them get away with obvious irregularities, but if they are not sure, they will weigh a little more favorably the team they just innocently screwed.
This might be kind of a dumb question but how do you submit to the Mailbag? Is there an email or is it through Substack?
It’s a Substack Chat. I just tried to share/invite you but couldn’t see you which might mean you’re already on it. Or that I can’t work Substack. Or both. Anyway tap the chat icon from Home and see what you see.
Thank you! I was just using the website.
I set the Chats to go to your inbox as emails. I think/hope that works.
Thank you. I did download the app too, so I can see the chats there
I think part of Pederson's/Press' problem is simply tactical. While watching them come apart in the latter Wentz years, it struck me that 'Wentz is supposed to have a gun, yet they are throwing all these dinky-dunkie passes. Does Doug Pederson see Wentz as simply a super-improved 'quarterback Doug Pederson', throwing the dinkies with more velocity and far more likely to connect on the (very, very) occasional long pass?'
I'm now fully convinced of that. Just as Lombardi (wasn't it??) looked at Herbert and saw another Drew Brees, Doug Pederson sees every quarterback as another Doug Pederson. A billionaire's Doug Pederson in some cases, but still a quarterback who like every quarterback ought to be running a 'quarterback Doug Pederson' style passing offense. Throwing one dink pass after another, which was all the original Quarterback Doug Pederson could handle, just doing it better.
I don't get Jaguars games on network TV, and I'm sure not going out of my way to watch one. But from the box scores they look a whole lot like that famed Patricia/Joe Judge offense.
I am not sure I agree with this. Both Lawrence and Wentz throw downfield a good bit. And really, you don't want Wentz standing in the pocket thinking he's Superman all that often!
So in other words, you don't want Wentz taking snaps all that often. 'Cus "I can make this throw happen" is pretty much his entire gig.
For Bengals fans, I would not worry about the offense. They did not punt a single time last week. Granted, Washington’s defense is terrible. But still, the offense doesn’t seem to be the issue
If the NFC east is the new AFC south, what is the afc south now? The MAC?
Maybe the ACC south 🤔
It’s more like one of those sketchy religious colleges that always hire the disgraced SEC coach
Re last question: a concerned Iggles' fan writes: You mean Bill wouldn't take a call from Jeff Lurie next Tuesday to replace Sirianni if Birds play on Sunday like they've played the last couple of weeks?
No way Bill gets full organizational control. I’d take Howie and [insert offensive-minded coach here] than Belichick and his toadies at this point.
Howie would block a BB hire if Jeff is still listening to Howie.
Also ... the Eagles are 2-1 and beat 2 good opponents? And would be 3-0 if not for 45 stupid seconds of football? I wish I could bottle Eagles pessimism and use it as an energy source.
Right?!! It’s pleasant being an Iggles fan out here in SoCal as I don’t have everyone’s negative emotions around feeding into each other.
PS - I personally still like Sirianni can’t imagine firing him this year unless the team completely collapses again.
I tend to be pro Sirianni and anti-Fire the Coach narratives, which are driven by Hot Take Brainz.
But I wanted to slam Sirianni's head in a car door repeatedly last Sunday.
We are definitely in agreement on all counts.